Pokrovsk Offensive
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The Pokrovsk offensive is an ongoing military operation in the
Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...
by the
Russian Armed Forces The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, commonly referred to as the Russian Armed Forces, are the military of Russia. They are organized into three service branches—the Russian Ground Forces, Ground Forces, Russian Navy, Navy, and Russi ...
with the primary goal of capturing the strategic city of Pokrovsk in western
Donetsk Oblast Donetsk Oblast, also referred to as Donechchyna (, ), is an Oblasts of Ukraine, oblast in eastern Ukraine. It is Ukraine's most populous province, with around 4.1 million residents. Its capital city, administrative centre is Donetsk, though d ...
. Fighting increased with the Russian advance into and subsequent capture of Prohres on 18 and 19 July 2024, a turning point for the Russian offensive northwest of
Avdiivka Avdiivka (, ; , ) is a city in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. The city is located in the centre of the oblast, just north of the regional centre, Donetsk. The large Avdiivka Coke Plant is located in Avdiivka. The city had a population of before th ...
following the latter's capture in February 2024, and has taken place in numerous settlements east and south of Pokrovsk in
Pokrovsk Raion Pokrovsk Raion (; ) is a raion (district) within Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine. Its administrative center is Pokrovsk. It has an area of and its population is approximately An architectural monument in the raion is the Petropavlovs'ka Chu ...
.


Background

Following the Russian success in the battle of Avdiivka, their forces significantly advanced north and northwest of the city to form a salient in the succeeding months. The success in the battle of Ocheretyne, fought over a town northwest of Avdiivka, led to further gains in the months leading up to July 2024.


Offensive


Early advances (18–31 July)

On 17 July 2024, fighting began over Prohres, a village in central
Donetsk Oblast Donetsk Oblast, also referred to as Donechchyna (, ), is an Oblasts of Ukraine, oblast in eastern Ukraine. It is Ukraine's most populous province, with around 4.1 million residents. Its capital city, administrative centre is Donetsk, though d ...
, and Russian forces entered it the following day. On 19 July, Prohres was captured by Russia in an engagement reportedly lasting only 48 hours. The breakthrough, reportedly caused by heavy airstrikes which led to the collapse and subsequent retreat of the 110th and 47th Mechanized Brigades, allowed for quick advances along a previously stable frontline. Two days prior, Russian forces had reportedly advanced up to the settlement of , north of Prohres, and began contesting it. DeepStateMap.Live showed the same day a Russian advance to occupy most of the village; on 20 July, Russian troops began encircling the area between the two villages, and according to some sources, surrounded multiple Ukrainian companies by 24 July, which according to
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was "potentially hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers" of two battalions of the 31st Mechanized Brigade. These soldiers, according to
David Axe David Axe (born April 11, 1978) is an American military correspondent, blogger, and graphic novelist. Axe founded the website ''War Is Boring'' in 2007 as a webcomic, and later developed it into a news blog. Early life and education David Axe ...
, however managed to escape the encirclement around 26 July with the help of coordinated artillery and drone strikes. ''Forbes'' additionally reported that the 47th Brigade lost two
M1 Abrams The M1 Abrams () is a third-generation American main battle tank designed by Chrysler Defense (now General Dynamics Land Systems) and named for General Creighton Abrams. Conceived for modern armored ground warfare, it is one of the heavies ...
tanks during the engagement around Prohres and that Ukrainian forces had suffered high casualties. On 25 July, Russia began advancing west of Prohres along a railway towards Vesele. This was followed by the capture of Lozuvatske around 26 July, Vovche around 27 July, and Novoselivka Persha, southeast of Prohres, around 29 July. The Russian advances following the capture of Prohres and the "tense and difficult" situation east of Pokrovsk were attributed to a lack of Ukrainian manpower and equipment, deficient training, and decreased
morale Morale ( , ) is the capacity of a group's members to maintain belief in an institution or goal, particularly in the face of opposition or hardship. Morale is often referenced by authority figures as a generic value judgment of the willpower, ...
.


Advance towards Hrodivka and Novohrodivka (1–23 August)

On 1 August, Russian forces reportedly entered the outskirts of Zhelanne and Ivanivka, and between 1–4 August, captured Vesele. Russian milbloggers also claimed further advances within Ivanivka the same day. ''
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'' estimated on 2 August that Russia was advancing, where they were reportedly from Pokrovsk, with "potentially" 40,000 troops composed of 20 Russian regiments and brigades while Ukraine had around 12,000 troops from six brigades. Fighting continued in the sector on 5 and 6 August, and the increased rate of Russian advances, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief
Oleksandr Syrskyi Oleksandr Stanislavovych Syrskyi (; born 26 July 1965) is a Ukrainian military officer. Holding the rank of four-star general, he has served as the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since . Previously, he was the commander o ...
, made the front the most active across the frontline by early August as Russia's main offensive goal. Russia reportedly captured on 7 August, and began advancing towards the town of Hrodivka, the capture of which would allow for artillery strikes on Pokrovsk itself. On 9 August, the UK Defense Ministry reported that Pokrovsk was only away from the frontline. Amidst Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, fighting near Pokrovsk increased around 13 August, with a reported increase to 52 battles in a day in the area, greater than a third of all engagements across the frontline; a representative of the 110th Mechanized Brigade stated that the situation near Pokrovsk had deteriorated since Ukraine's incursion, attributed to shortages in ammunition and continual Russian offensive efforts. On 13 August, Russia reportedly entered Hrodivka and aligned the frontline with the
Kazennyi Torets The Kazennyi Torets (; ) is a river in eastern Ukraine. The river travels in the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk Districts in the Donetsk Oblast Donetsk Oblast, also referred to as Donechchyna (, ), is an Oblasts of Ukraine, oblast in eastern Uk ...
river in the north, in the process capturing Ivanivka, , and . A Ukrainian official told
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that the incursion into Kursk had little effect on fighting in the east but that the "intensity of Russian attacks" had decreased slightly over the weekend. A Ukrainian lieutenant corroborated the report of fighting in Hrodivka, and said that "everything is very grim on the Pokrovsk front", while another Ukrainian soldier said that Russian forces were ordered to seize Myrnohrad, a city east of Pokrovsk. On 14 August, Russia continued advancing, seizing Zhelanne, southeast of Hrodivka, and in the direction of Novohrodivka, seizing and reportedly entering Mykolaivka and . Also on 15 August, Serhii Dobriak, the head of the Pokrovsk City Military Administration, reported that Russian forces were only from the city, saying that Russia was "almost right up close to our community", and urged all citizens to evacuate. The same day, a Ukrainian soldier reported that Russian forces had a 10–1 advantage over Ukraine east of Pokrovsk in terms of infantry and were relentlessly conducting assaults on Ukrainian positions throughout the whole day, while the
Institute for the Study of War The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American nonprofit research group and advocacy think tank founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan and headquartered in Washington, D.C. ISW provides research and analysis of modern arm ...
(ISW) stated that Russia was prioritizing advances towards Pokrovsk. On 16 August, American officials reported that Russia had only withdrawn a limited number of units from eastern Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, while Ukrainian soldiers said that Russian attacks in the direction of Pokrovsk had not decreased following the incursion, with Russia choosing to reinforce their forces in the Pokrovsk direction rather than divert them. The same day, a Ukrainian officer reported that Russia was attempting to storm Novohrodivka, while residents of
Selydove Selydove (, ; ), formerly Selydivka (; ), is a city in Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. The city is located in the western part of the region, on the Solona River (a tributary of the Vovcha, Dnieper basin). It is the administrative cente ...
, Myrnohrad, and Novohrodivka continued to evacuate. On 17 August, Russia reportedly captured Mykolaivka, entered Novozhelanne, and advanced in the fields east of Zhelanne. A high-rise building in Myrnohrad was attacked by Russian shelling. Russian sources further claimed the complete capture of Novozhelanne and advances towards Novohrodivka and in the direction of through Zhuravka. Russian forces moved south of Zhelanne to capture Novozhelanne and Zavitne around 18 August, confirmed by a soldier hoisting the Russian flag on the southern of the two settlements. On 19 August, civilians continued evacuating from Pokrovsk and surrounding settlements, while the city's head Serhii Dobriak announced that families with children would be forced to evacuate Pokrovsk due to continuing Russian advances starting 20 August, and would have at most two weeks to leave, while those in Myrnohrad would have only a few days. Dobriak additionally said that utilities and services would "gradually be winding down" within a week in Pokrovsk. Russia advanced on 18 and 19 August to fully capture Zhuravka and to control all territory east of the Vovcha River in the area, capturing Mezhove and Soniachne in the process. Russia continued to attack Novohrodivka and other settlements east of Pokrovsk; military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady said that Russia was likely "engaging the last proper defensive line outside of the town". On 21 August, Russian forces advanced further south of Mykolaivka and south of Zhelanne, capturing Komyshivka. President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy (born 25 January 1978) is a Ukrainian politician and former entertainer who has served as the sixth and current president of Ukraine since 2019. He took office five years after the start of the Russo-Ukraini ...
acknowledged the recent advances made by Russia east of Pokrovsk the same day, and announced that its forces were being bolstered in the area. Russia continued moving south on 22 August to capture Ptyche and advance in the direction of Kalynove, and reportedly gained a foothold in eastern Novohrodivka. The ISW analysed that the recent southern advances were likely due to a Ukrainian withdrawal from positions in the area to avoid encirclement by Russian forces. Services and the administration of Pokrovsk began shutting down or moving out of the city, while civilians continued to evacuate on 22 and 23 August. Russian sources claimed on 23 August that Russia was advancing within southern and southeastern Novohrodivka, had advanced into from the southeast, and that there were reports of a seizure of Kalynove.


Capture of Novohrodivka and advance into Selydove (24 August – 6 September)

Russia continued advancing through Novohrodivka on 24 August, capturing most of the eastern portion of the city, while advancing south towards Kalynove, and towards
Karlivka Karlivka (, ) is a city in Poltava Raion, Poltava Oblast, Ukraine. It hosts the administration of Karlivka urban hromada, one of the hromadas of Ukraine. Population: History First settlers from the Right-bank Ukraine, right bank of Dnieper a ...
from the east. Russian sources claimed the city council building in Novohrodivka had been seized through advances in the central part of the city, and that had been captured, southwest of Hrodivka. Fighting continued for Novohrodivka on 25 August, and Russia reportedly increased their control to more than half of the city. Russian sources claimed further advances south of Novohrodivka towards , and towards Kalynove from the north. Russia continued advancing southwards, southeast of Novohrodivka, on 26 and 27 August; Russian forces entered Mykhailivka, east of
Selydove Selydove (, ; ), formerly Selydivka (; ), is a city in Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. The city is located in the western part of the region, on the Solona River (a tributary of the Vovcha, Dnieper basin). It is the administrative cente ...
, and advanced into Memryk around 26 August. The following day, Memryk, in addition to Kalynove, was reportedly captured. By 27 August, Russia had advanced along the railway line passing through Novohrodivka into the city's northwestern outskirts. The ISW assessed that the recent Russian advance through Novohrodivka, taken place in only a few days, was in part due to Ukraine not attempting to maintain defensive positions within the city, where they reportedly had a 4–1 disadvantage in firepower, and instead opting to abandon the settlement. The ISW further said that the advance through Novohrodivka would give Russia a pathway to advance into Pokrovsk. By 28 August, Novohrodivka was widely reported to have been completely captured by Russia, with the ''
Kyiv Post The ''Kyiv Post'' is Ukraine’s first and most prominent English-language newspaper. It was founded in 1995 in Kyiv by American businessman Jed Sunden. In 2018, the publication was acquired by prominent Ukrainian businessman Adnan Kivan, foun ...
'' saying that the city had been lost in 72 hours. A prominent Ukrainian journalist expressed disapproval of the lack of promised fortifications in the area and called the situation near Pokrovsk "catastrophic". Russian sources also claimed on 28 August that further advances within Hrodivka had been made, with the claimed advance being up to the Zhuravka River dividing the town, and that Myrnohrad's southern outskirts had been reached via advances north through Krasnyi Yar. The same day, Russia reportedly advanced into Selydove following a Ukrainian withdrawal from certain positions in the city, entering the eastern part of the city, likely through further advances within Mykhaikivka. The ISW assessed on 29 August that Russia was simultaneously pursuing two offensives near Pokrovsk: towards Pokrovsk itself, where Russia was attacking the defensive line from Hrodivka to Novohrodivka, and south towards the defensive line running from Ukrainsk– Hirnyk–Selydove. They assessed that the former effort sought to first capture Myrnohrad and then advance into Pokrovsk's outskirts, while the latter to expand the salient east of Pokrovsk and to lessen opportunities for a Ukrainian counterattack at the base of the 21 kilometer wide Russian salient towards Avdiivka, and that these were both likely seen as necessary objectives by Russia to achieve prior to launching an attack on Pokrovsk itself. The second effort would supposedly hope to further eliminate the Ukrainian salient north of
Krasnohorivka Krasnohorivka (, ; ) is a List of cities in Ukraine, city in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. It is situated west of Donetsk. As of the 2001 Ukrainian census, 2001 census, it had a population of 16,714. The city has been under Donetsk People's ...
and capture the fields north of it, assisting in the hostilities taking place south of the Ukrainian salient. Russian sources on 29 August claimed that engagements were taking place in northeastern Ukrainsk and southern Myrnohrad, while a Ukrainian analyst stated that the presence of Russian forces in Myrnohrad was rather only for sabotage and reconnaissance purposes. Selydove's center was claimed to have been reached by Russian forces. On 30 August, Russia captured the village of Karlivka, making further advances south of it, while Russian sources claimed a complete capture of Hrodivka. On 31 August Russia advanced into Halytsynivka and seized the northern portion of the village. Russian milbloggers claimed that the village had been completely captured, which was later confirmed on 3 September. Russian forces likely captured Mykhailivka and
Dolynivka Dolynivka () may refer to the following places in Ukraine: * Dolynivka, Donetsk Oblast * Dolynivka, Holovanivsk Raion, Kirovohrad Oblast * Dolynivka, Kropyvnytskyi Raion, Kirovohrad Oblast * Dolynivka, Lviv Oblast {{SIA, populated places in Ukrain ...
on 1 September. Civilians continued evacuating from Pokrovsk, while most of the city's businesses and infrastructure finished closing, such as hospitals and supermarkets, their contents being transported away from the frontline. By 2 September, elements of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade, 68th Jager Brigade, 117th Territorial Defense Brigade and 15th
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Brigade were in danger of being cut off and encircled in the Ukrainian salient southeast of Pokrovsk, east of the Vovcha River and north of Krasnohorivka. The integrity of the salient reportedly rested on the 25th Airborne Brigade, defending
Ukrainsk Ukrainsk (, ; , ) is a city in Selydove urban hromada, Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. The population was estimated at 10,655 in 2022, which went down from 13,236 in 2001. The city has been under Russian occupation since September 2024. ...
. On 3 September, Russian sources claimed that Russia had begun advancing in this salient, west of Nevelske. On 5 September, civilians remaining in Pokrovsk were asked to switch to using the train station of
Pavlohrad Pavlohrad (, ) is a city in eastern Ukraine, located within Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. It serves as the administrative center of Pavlohrad Raion. Its population is approximately The rivers of Vovcha (runs through the city towards the Samara Riv ...
for evacuation, with buses to the city being provided, as the was forced to close as it experienced a worsening security situation. 26,000 people remained in Pokrovsk according to Donetsk Oblast governor Vadym Filashkin. On 5 September, the ISW assessed that the recent expansion of the Pokrovsk salient southwards aimed to act in tandem with the renewed offensive towards Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast, with the former effort of seizing Pokrovsk continuing to serve as the priority, and the latter aimed at limiting the amount of Ukraininan redeployments to the Pokrovsk sector. Russian efforts continued to envelop and encircle the Ukrainian salient west of
Donetsk Donetsk ( , ; ; ), formerly known as Aleksandrovka, Yuzivka (or Hughesovka), Stalin, and Stalino, is an industrial city in eastern Ukraine located on the Kalmius River in Donetsk Oblast, which is currently occupied by Russia as the capita ...
, with ''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
'' saying it had been "nearly encircled" by Russian forces.


Fighting for Ukrainsk and shift in movement south (7–20 September)

By 7 September, Russian success northwest directly towards Pokrovsk had largely stalled, while advances continued in the southern direction, southeast of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian brigades newly deployed to the area made multiple counterattacks: in Selydove, a city crucial to further Russian offensive success where momentum had stalled, in Halytsynivka, and in Mykhailivka. Russia continued exerting pressure on the southern direction at Ukrainsk and Hirnyk, with the former reportedly being entered. The ISW analysed that a capture of these two cities would allow for the southern advances in the Pokrovsk salient to evolve into an attack on
Kurakhove Kurakhove (, ; , ) is a city in Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. Population: 21,479 (2001). Kurakhove is home to the Kurakhove Power Station. The city has been under Russian occupation since December 2024, the power station s ...
further south, a key city in the region, and that this axis of advance exists as a prerequisite of directly assaulting Pokrovsk, efforts that mutually reinforce each other. A Russian source said that gaining control of the elevated areas near Ukrainsk and Hirnyk was being focused on rather than a full frontal assault on Ukrainsk. Visual confirmation was given on 7 September for a Russian advance to central Hrodivka, while Russian milbloggers claimed that Lisivka, east of Ukrainsk, had been captured, visually confirmed four days later. On 10 September, the ISW assessed that footage showing a Russian advance near Marynivka indicated it had been captured. On 12 September, Russian sources claimed an advance towards Pokrovsk via a separate Lisivka, saying the village had been captured. Fighting continued east of Selydove, where the frontline was reportedly situated between the city's eastern outskirts and Mykhailivka following the reported Ukrainian counterattack in early September. Russian media claimed that Selydove was attempting to be encircled, but this was not deemed possible based on the current frontline by the ISW. Both Russia and Ukraine made marginal advances near Selydove, northeast of the city and west of Mykhailivka, and a Ukrainian military observer confirmed Russian advances east and northeast of Selydove. Russian forces reportedly shifted their tactics near Selydove away from frontal assaults to employing small groups moving through covered areas. Russian sources claimed advances within Selydove itself, while a Ukrainian officer contrastingly said that the city was "completely under our control". In Pokrovsk, the population continued to decrease as residents fled, reaching 18,000 by 11 September. Russian forces had meanwhile cut water supplies to the city, blown up multiple bridges near and in Pokrovsk, severing connections to highways in the city, and were able to strike Ukrainian soldiers with drones and artillery. According to a Ukrainian unit commander, this hampered logistical supply to the city and meant that Pokrovsk "can already said to have been lost" in terms of its logistical prowess. Ukrainian forces were reportedly fortifying the city in preparation for urban combat. In Ukrainsk, Russian forces seized control over southern parts of the city by 11 September, while making confirmed advances on the city's northwestern flank by 13 September. The ISW stated that the footage confirming this latter advance meant that Ukrainsk "may have" been captured, while also assessing that these attacks on the city's flanks were being preferred over a direct frontal assault as encirclement efforts continued. Later footage on 17 September confirmed the complete capture of Ukrainsk, widely amplified by Russian media. Following this, Russian forces reportedly began advancing south towards Hirnyk and northwest of Ukrainsk. ''The New York Times'' assessed that the capture of Ukrainsk could assist in the advance south towards Kurakhove.


Semi-encirclement and capture of Selydove (21 September – 30 October)

West of Ukrainsk, Russian forces continued advancing, reaching the railway line north of the settlement of Tsukuryne and south of
Selydove Selydove (, ; ), formerly Selydivka (; ), is a city in Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. The city is located in the western part of the region, on the Solona River (a tributary of the Vovcha, Dnieper basin). It is the administrative cente ...
, a city vital for the defence of Pokrovsk. Further advances towards this line were made in late September, coinciding with an advance along the Donetsk–Pokrovsk highway to the north of Selydove, in what the ISW stated was an effort by Russian forces to bypass the city altogether. Russian sources said that these movements were aimed at encircling Selydove, in a similar way to the then ongoing advances near Vuhledar. Footage on 30 September showed that Tsukuryne had been entered in the southeast, while a Ukrainian officer stated that the settlement had shifted to become a priority target for Russian forces in the area. Near Myrnohrad, Russian forces seized in late September, and on 10 October, captured Krasnyi Yar and seized Mykolaivka, the last settlement before the city. The head of Pokrovsk's administration stated on 4 October that four fifths of the city's critical infrastructure had been destroyed from Russian attacks, and that its remaining inhabitants had been left without water, power, and gas. Tsukuryne was reported to have been captured on 6 October. Russian forces made continual advances east of Selydove in mid-October, and a Ukrainian soldier said on 16 October that efforts were being made to both enter the outskirts of Selydove itself and to bypass the city. A Russian source said that two of five roads running to Selydove had been cut off, and that a third, running from Selydove to , was being approached. On 18 October, the road was reportedly severed through further advances south of the city along the rail line. Russia's focus on capturing Selydove inhibited further advances elsewhere in the sector, specifically on Pokrovsk directly. A Ukrainian military expert on 19 October said that Russian forces aimed to bypass the local slag heaps in Selydove and force a Ukrainian retreat by continuing their encirclement efforts, and that the capture of these would allow for fire control over the surroundings of Pokrovsk. On 20 October, Russian milbloggers said that intense street by street fighting was taking place between Russian and Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of the city. A Ukrainian military observer confirmed that Hrodivka had been captured on 21 October. On 22 October, the commander of the Aidar's 24th Separate Assault Brigade, Stanyslav Bunyatov, stated that half of the city was captured by Russian forces, citing lack of manpower as an issue. The next day, this was confirmed by DeepStateMap.Live. Russian forces were able to hoist their flag in the central part of Selydove, with the ISW stating that Russia had made "significant tactical advances" both in and around the city. The Ukrainian military said that the city was "on the verge" of being seized. Russian forces also advanced to the outskirts of the village of Vyshneve in late October, further deteriorating Ukrainian control over the supply lines to the city. Russia was able to nearly encircle Selydove, with most roads cut off or under fire control. By 27 October, DeepStateMap.Live showed that Russian forces had advanced and occupied most of the city, with the north-western outskirts remaining disputed territory. Russian sources claimed the same day that the entire city had been captured, with Russian MOD claiming capture on 29 October. Selydove was confirmed captured on 30 October by DeepStateMap.


Turning maneuver from the southwest towards Pokrovsk (1 November – 31 January)

In early December 2024, the village of Shevchenko to the southwest of Pokrovsk came under high pressure by Russian forces, as they sought to advance on the western flank of Pokrovsk to seize the city with a turning maneuver from the south, parallel to advances east of Myrnohrad. By 12 December, Russian forces had advanced within a range of 3 kilometres to the southern city limits of Pokrovsk, after swift advances in Shevchenko. As a result of these advances, Ukraine's largest steel producer
Metinvest Metinvest is a group of steel and mining companies that owns operations in Ukraine, Italy, Bulgaria, the UK and the US. The company mines ore and coal, produces coke, smelts steel and produces rolled products, pipes and other steel products. Th ...
started suspending operations at an administrative building and one of three of its mining sites at the Pokrovsk coal mine. The company justified this action with the closer-moving frontline and intensified shelling. Core personnel were evacuated along with their families, with further decision-making depending on the evolution of the nearby fighting. On 15 December, pro-Ukrainian sources confirmed that Shevchenko had been fully captured by Russian forces. Russia also launched attacks on the left flank to Vozdvyzhenka on 28 December, capturing the settlement on 2 January, then slowly advancing towards Baranivka and the H-32 highway interchange throughout January. On 13 January 2025,
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reported, citing unnamed industry sources, that the Pokrovs'ke coal mine had halted production due to the approaching front line. The mine was Ukraine's sole controlled
coking coal Coke is a grey, hard, and porous coal-based fuel with a high carbon content. It is made by heating coal or petroleum in the absence of air. Coke is an important industrial product, used mainly in iron ore smelting, but also as a fuel in stoves ...
-producing facility, from which 3.5 million tons of coke were produced in 2023. The same day, geolocated footage showed that Russian forces had captured the village of , south of Pokrovsk, and severed two highways leading east (H-32 to
Kostiantynivka Kostiantynivka (, ; ) is an industrial city in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. It is situated on the Kryvyi Torets river. During the History of the Soviet Union, Soviet era, the city developed into a major centre for the production of iron, zi ...
) and west (to
Mezhova Mezhova (; ) is a rural settlement in Synelnykove Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. It hosts the administration of Mezhova settlement hromada, one of the hromadas of Ukraine. Population: History Until 18 July 2020, Mezhova was the adminis ...
) out of Pokrovsk. By early February, Russian troops were less than from Pokrovsk. Their occupation of dominant heights near the city put Ukrainian supply routes within their range. Ukrainian drone operations were hampered by heavy fog, and inexperience of new recruits put severe strain on their comrades, whose zones of responsibility effectively widened.


Stalemate and local counter-attacks (February – April)

While the Russians advanced south and south-west of Pokrovsk, advance towards the city itself halted around a perimeter. Russians did not advance past Hrodivka and Mykolaivka, and by the end of January, the front line stabilized on an arc from Mykolaivka through Lysivka, Shevchenko, Pishchane to Kotlyne. After the capture of Kotlyne in late January, Russian advance to encircle Pokrovsk from the west also halted, leaving a salient south-west of the city. From February, Ukraine conducted multiple local counter-attacks from all sides of the salient. By mid-February Ukrainians gained ground in Pischane and Lysivka. Ukrainian paratroopers recaptured Kotlyne on 26 February. Ukrainians also attacked Russians at Uspenivka by 5 March.


Russian advance on the eastern flank (since April)

From late March Russia launched an offensive west of Toretsk, capturing Sukha Balka and Kalynove by the end of April. From mid-April attacks also intensified from the Vozdvyzhenka salient towards Tarasivka, capturing the settlement by 2 May, and breaking through to Novoolenivka by 7 May. By mid-April the advance widened towards multiple settlements along Road H-32: Malynivka and Nova Poltavka.


Casualties


Russia

On 27 August, Syrskyi claimed that, on average, his soldiers "neutralize" 300 Russian soldiers every day in the Pokrovsk direction. On 2 September,
David Axe David Axe (born April 11, 1978) is an American military correspondent, blogger, and graphic novelist. Axe founded the website ''War Is Boring'' in 2007 as a webcomic, and later developed it into a news blog. Early life and education David Axe ...
estimated that the Russians had suffered casualties of "potentially tens of thousands of soldiers" while advancing towards Pokrovsk following the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024. In an interview with ''
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'' on 5 September, British defence analyst Michael Clarke estimated that the Russians were losing 1,000 men killed or wounded per day on average during the Pokrovsk offensive, and had also lost "well over" 100 armored vehicles over the past week alone. Two Russian assaults on 12 and 19 September, carried out with a total of 98 vehicles, were claimed by the Ukrainian 46th Air Mobile Brigade to have been repulsed in a week defending Kurakhove. They claimed to have damaged or destroyed 44 of the attacking vehicles. On 19 September, Ukrainian analyst Petro Chernyk claimed that fighting near Pokrovsk had resulted in the "pre-emptive extermination of 2-3 thousand enemy personnel". On 11 December, the ISW reported that a Ukrainian brigade officer claimed that Russian forces lost nearly 3,000 personnel in the Pokrovsk direction in two weeks. On 5 January 2025, the ISW reported that a Ukrainian intelligence officer operating in the Pokrovsk direction claimed that Russian forces are suffering up to 400 personnel casualties per day. On 2 February 2025, Ukrainian C-in-C Oleksandr Syrski claimed that Russian forces had suffered 15,000 casualties, including 7,000 killed in action, in the Pokrovsk direction in January 2025 alone. Meanwhile, the ISW reported a higher figure of roughly 21,000 Russian casualties, based on President Zelenskyy's claim that Russian forces suffer a 2:1 wounded to killed ratio.


Ukraine

The 47th Mechanized Brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction by late August 2024 had reportedly lost around half of the
M1 Abrams The M1 Abrams () is a third-generation American main battle tank designed by Chrysler Defense (now General Dynamics Land Systems) and named for General Creighton Abrams. Conceived for modern armored ground warfare, it is one of the heavies ...
tanks it had been supplied with.


Analysis


Strategic value

Pokrovsk has been described as a strategically significant city due to its role as a supply hub; it stands at the intersection of multiple supply highways, one of which leads towards key inwards cities in
Donetsk Oblast Donetsk Oblast, also referred to as Donechchyna (, ), is an Oblasts of Ukraine, oblast in eastern Ukraine. It is Ukraine's most populous province, with around 4.1 million residents. Its capital city, administrative centre is Donetsk, though d ...
, including Chasiv Yar and
Kostiantynivka Kostiantynivka (, ; ) is an industrial city in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. It is situated on the Kryvyi Torets river. During the History of the Soviet Union, Soviet era, the city developed into a major centre for the production of iron, zi ...
, and houses a regionally significant . If captured by Russia, Pokrovsk would be the most populous settlement seized since Bakhmut in 2023. Due to its strategic positioning, such a capture would allow for advances towards
Dnipro Dnipro is Ukraine's fourth-largest city, with about one million inhabitants. It is located in the eastern part of Ukraine, southeast of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on the Dnieper River, Dnipro River, from which it takes its name. Dnipro is t ...
and
Zaporizhzhia Zaporizhzhia, formerly known as Aleksandrovsk or Oleksandrivsk until 1921, is a city in southeast Ukraine, situated on the banks of the Dnieper, Dnieper River. It is the Capital city, administrative centre of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia ...
. Ukrainian military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov said that Pokrovsk's position as a "very important hub" and a "centre of defence" means that "the entire frontline will crumble" if the city is captured by Russia, while the
BBC The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) is a British public service broadcaster headquartered at Broadcasting House in London, England. Originally established in 1922 as the British Broadcasting Company, it evolved into its current sta ...
noted that the aftermath of the city's fall, such as a Ukrainian retreat from Chasiv Yar, "would effectively mean the loss of almost the entire Donetsk region". Analyst Markus Reisner reported that Pokrovsk was the last fortified position of three defensive lines built by Ukraine since 2014, and its loss would mean that Russia will only face open land and loose fortified positions. President Zelenskyy also gave a lengthy statement in which he compared the battle to the
Battle of Bakhmut The battle of Bakhmut was a major battle between the Russian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian Armed Forces for control of the city of Bakhmut, during the eastern Ukraine campaign, a theatre of the Russian invasion of Uk ...
, saying that "this is an unconditional decision of the military, who should be in the Pokrovsky direction, in what number, etc. But you have to understand: they are not retreating there. Returning back, they are shot. I am talking about the Russian army. And they will press. It is necessary for them. Like the situation with Bakhmut. They will put 50–60 thousand people there. You will see it. You will understand these numbers very soon." Pokrovsk also has central importance for the Ukrainian steel industry. Pischane is the largest plant for coking coal production in Ukraine. The site provided half of Metinvest's coal volume, used to produce steel at the company's plants. Loss of the Pokrovsk coal mine would thus be a major blow to Ukraine's steel production industry. According to the head of Ukraine's steelmakers' association, Oleksandr Kalenkov, a full closure of the plant could diminish Ukrainian steel production to only 2-3 million metric tons, down from a projected 7.5 million by the end of 2024.


Tactics and battlefield challenges

Russian advances towards Pokrovsk were partially attributed by Ukrainian commanders and soldiers to issues with new Ukrainian conscripts; these newly mobilised soldiers reportedly had little to no training, were often incapable of effectively shooting a target, were overly-hasty in retreating from positions, and sometimes fled an area of staging battlefield operations out of a lack of trust for the plans. An
Azov Brigade The 12th Special Forces Brigade "Azov" () is a formation of the National Guard of Ukraine formerly based in Mariupol, in the coastal region of the Sea of Azov, from which it derives its name. It was founded in May 2014 as the Azov Battalion (), ...
officer said that many soldiers serving in the Pokrovsk direction are there against their will, and that the discipline, morale, and exhaustion problems with these and other soldiers are a contributor to the situation which he described as "out of control". Russian forces typically attack and perform operations with small infantry groups, where they are relatively effective at advancing through villages and are harder for Ukrainian drones to target.


Deterioration of Ukrainian brigades deployed near Pokrovsk

In November 2024, the French-trained 155th Mechanized Brigade was deployed south of Pokrovsk to help hold positions in the area, including the settlement of Shevchenko. The brigade reportedly suffered heavy losses during its first few days of combat. According to an article published on 31 December 2024 by Ukrainian journalist , the brigade had suffered from serious organisational problems since its inception.
Operational Command West The Operational Command West ( OC West, ) is a formation of the Ukrainian Ground Forces in western Ukraine. Its headquarters is located in Rivne. History When Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union, there were three Military Distric ...
, responsible for the formation of the brigade, lacked the resources, manpower and command staff needed to create a new unit. By the time the brigade was sent to France for training in October, 935 soldiers had already gone
AWOL Desertion is the abandonment of a military duty or post without permission (a pass, liberty or leave) and is done with the intention of not returning. This contrasts with unauthorized absence (UA) or absence without leave (AWOL ), which ...
and 50 more had deserted in France. While the brigade command was in France, 700 more newly recruited men stationed in Ukraine went AWOL without ever seeing their commander. Butusov first brought attention to the problems with the brigade in a report on 14 December, where he stated that over a thousand servicemen of the brigade went AWOL after having been forcibly mobilized off the streets, which led to the replacement of the brigade commander with Colonel Taras Maksymov on 12 December. An additional 198 soldiers went AWOL during the first week of December. , citing soldiers on the frontline, reported that brigade was used in mass infantry assaults in counterattacks against Russian positions and had "suffered significant losses from the very first days" which in turn led to "acute infantry shortages". The ''
Kyiv Post The ''Kyiv Post'' is Ukraine’s first and most prominent English-language newspaper. It was founded in 1995 in Kyiv by American businessman Jed Sunden. In 2018, the publication was acquired by prominent Ukrainian businessman Adnan Kivan, foun ...
'' reported that by 4 January 2025, the brigade had lost all of its
CAESAR self-propelled howitzer The ''Camion Équipé d'un Système d'Artillerie'' (English: "Truck equipped with an artillery system") or CAESAR is a French 155 mm, 52-caliber self-propelled gun that can fire 39/52 caliber NATO-standard shells. It is installed on a 6x6 or ...
s, most of its VAB APCs, and a portion of its
Leopard 2 The Leopard 2 is a third generation German main battle tank (MBT). Developed by Krauss-Maffei in the 1970s, the tank entered service in 1979 and replaced the earlier Leopard 1 as the main battle tank of the West German army. Various iterat ...
tanks. On 4 January 2025, the brigade was disbanded, with remaining soldiers and equipment being assigned to other brigades defending Pokrovsk. In late January 2025, a second Ukrainian brigade assigned to the Pokrovsk front, the 157th Mechanized Brigade, was reported to have suffered operational issues and desertion. The brigade suffered from poor training and low morale, and like the 155th Mechanized Brigade, lacked an experienced core of soldiers, consisting of only amateur recruits. The brigade reportedly deteriorated while being transferred to Pokrovsk due to high desertion rates, and diminished in size as components of the brigade were taken out and transferred to more experienced units at the front.


See also

* List of military engagements during the Russian invasion of Ukraine


References

{{2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine Battles of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2024 July 2024 in Ukraine August 2024 in Ukraine Battles of the Eastern front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Donetsk Oblast in the Russian invasion of Ukraine Pokrovsk Raion September 2024 in Ukraine October 2024 in Ukraine November 2024 in Ukraine December 2024 in Ukraine January 2025 in Ukraine February 2025 in Ukraine March 2025 in Ukraine April 2025 in Ukraine Battles of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2025 May 2025 in Ukraine