2024 UK General Election

The 2024 United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. It will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which determines the Government of the United Kingdom. Significant constituency boundary changes will be in effect, the first such changes since before the 2010 general election. It will be the first UK general election where voter identification is required to vote in person in Great Britain. The general election will be the first since the UK's departure from the European Union on 31 January 2020, which was a major issue in the previous election; it will also be the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, as well as the first general election held under Charles III's reign.

Discussion around the campaign has been focused on the prospect of a change in government, with the opposition Labour Party led by Keir Starmer having a significant lead in polling over the governing Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak. Public opinion in favour of a change in government was reflected in the Conservatives' poor performance at the 2022 and 2023 local elections, where Labour and the Liberal Democrats made gains from Conservatives, often by very wide margins. The parties made further gains in the 2024 local elections, in which both Labour and the Liberal Democrats had a greater number of successful candidates than the Conservatives. Many by-elections were won by their candidates during the parliament. A record number of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election. Projections four weeks before the vote indicated a landslide victory for Labour that would surpass the one achieved under Tony Blair in 1997, and the worst election defeat for the Conservatives since 1906.

Background

The Conservative Party had been in government since May 2010, when the party, then led by David Cameron, won the most seats in the 2010 general election and led a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, then led by Nick Clegg. In 2015, the Conservatives won a small majority in the general election of that year, but Cameron resigned the following year in the wake of the 2016 Brexit referendum and was succeeded by Theresa May. In 2017, the Conservatives lost their majority in the general election of that year and governed as a minority government with support of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. In 2019, May resigned following her party's poor performance in the 2019 European Parliament election and was succeeded by Boris Johnson, who led the Conservatives into the 2019 general election where the party won a large majority, after which it governed under three separate leaders and prime ministers; from Johnson (2019–2022) to Liz Truss (September 2022 – October 2022) to Rishi Sunak (since October 2022). Under these three leaders, the Conservatives saw a decrease in their opinion polling as a result of several high-profile scandals and two government crises. Johnson resigned amid a government crisis following a string of controversies including Partygate that characterised his premiership and severely damaged his personal reputation, while Truss resigned the shortest substantive premiership in British history amid an economic and political crisis. Sunak assumed the premiership on 25 October 2022.

Labour's defeat in the 2019 election led to Jeremy Corbyn announcing his intention to resign, triggering a leadership election that was won by Keir Starmer. Under Starmer's leadership, Labour suffered loses in the 2021 local elections but since the end of 2021, the party has consistently polled ahead of the Conservatives, often by very wide margins, including the highest poll lead of any party in over 20 years amid the government crisis during the premiership of Liz Truss. During the 2022 local elections, Labour gained 108 seats (22 in England, 20 in Scotland, and 66 in Wales). During the 2023 local elections, the Labour Party gained more than 500 councillors and 22 councils, becoming the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002. Labour made further gains in the 2024 local elections and had a greater number of successful candidates than the Conservatives.

For the Liberal Democrats leader Jo Swinson, the loss of her constituency seat in East Dunbartonshire in the 2019 election disqualified her as party leader under the party's rules, triggering a leadership election, which was won by Ed Davey. Under Davey's leadership, the Liberal Democrats have made gains in local elections alongside Labour, with both parties making gains in the 2023 local elections and made further gains in the 2024 local elections, where the Liberal Democrats finished second for the first time in a local election cycle since 2009.

The Scottish National Party changed leaders and first ministers three times, from Nicola Sturgeon (2014–2023) to Humza Yousaf (2023–2024) to John Swinney (since 6 May 2024). Sturgeon resigned in 2023 following heavy criticism for her positions on gender reforms and claimed occupational burnout was the reason for her resignation, while Yousaf resigned in 2024 amid a government crisis following his termination of a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens. Swinney assumed the leadership on 8 May 2024. In 2022, Ian Blackford stepped down as the Westminster SNP leader and was succeeded by Stephen Flynn.

Jeffrey Donaldson was leader of the Democratic Unionist Party from 2021 but resigned on 29 March 2024 after being charged with historical sex offences, and Gavin Robinson succeeded him as leader after winning the DUP leadership election.

Date of the election

Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the party's manifesto contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. In December 2020, the government duly published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. This entered into force on 24 March 2022. Thus, the prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." The Electoral Commission confirmed that the 2019-Parliament would, therefore, have to be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election had to take place no later than 28 January 2025.

With no election date fixed in law, there was speculation as to when Rishi Sunak, as prime minister, would call an election. On 18 December 2023, Sunak told journalists that the election would take place in 2024 rather than January 2025. On 4 January, he first suggested the general election would probably be in the second half of 2024. On 22 May 2024, following much speculation through the day, Sunak officially announced the election would be held on 4 July with the dissolution of the Parliament on 30 May.

Timetable

Electoral system

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain. These changes were included in the Elections Act 2022.

The results of the 2019 general election are given below, alongside the numbers in the House of Commons at dissolution. Seat counts changed through 23 by-elections and a number of defections and suspensions of members from their party that took place throughout the 2019–2024 parliament. There were no vacant seats at dissolution.

In March 2022, Labour abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would be an unlawful practice under the Equality Act 2010, since the majority of Labour MPs were now women. Many by-elections were won by Labour and the Liberal Democrats during the parliament. A record number of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election.

In March 2024, Reform UK announced an electoral pact with the Northern Irish unionist party TUV. The TUV applied to run candidates as "TUV/Reform UK" on ballot papers, but that was rejected by the Electoral Office. Farage unilaterally ended this deal by endorsing two competing candidates from the Democratic Unionist Party on June 10th.Reform UK also announced a pact with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a minor, socially conservative, party, in some seats.

On 22 May 2024, Sunak advised the King to order the dissolution of Parliament and called a general election for 4 July 2024. The election will be the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, as well as the first under the reign of Charles III. The general election will also be the first since the UK's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit having been a major issue in the previous election), and the first July general election since 1945.

Boundary reviews

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, commenced in 2011 but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016. The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018 and made their reports public a week later. However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020. A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats. The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021. They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023. Once the reports had been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals had to be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament. The boundary changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November 2023 and came into force on 29 November 2023, meaning that the election will be contested on these new boundaries.

Notional 2019 results

The election will be contested under new constituency boundaries established by the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2019 were unchanged, but regrouped by new constituency boundaries. Notional results in the UK are always estimated, usually with the assistance of local election results, because vote counts at parliamentary elections in the UK do not yield figures at any level more specific than that of the whole constituency.

In England, seats will be redistributed towards Southern England, away from Northern England, due to the different rates of population growth. North West England and North East England will lose two seats each whereas South East England will gain seven seats and South West England will gain three seats. Based on historical voting patterns, this is expected to help the Conservatives. Based on these new boundaries, different parties would have won several constituencies with unchanged names but changed boundaries in 2019. For example, the Conservatives would have won Wirral West and Leeds North West instead of the Labour Party, but Labour would have won Pudsey and Heywood & Middleton instead of the Conservatives. Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency represented by former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, is now notionally a Conservative seat.

In Scotland, 57 MPs will be elected, down from the 59 in 2019, with the following notional partisan composition of Scotland's parliamentary delegation: The Scottish National Party would remain steady on 48 seats, despite two of their constituencies being dissolved. The Scottish Conservatives' seat count of six would likewise remain unchanged. Scottish Labour would have retained Edinburgh South, the sole constituency they won in 2019. Had the 2019 general election occurred with the new boundaries in effect, the Scottish Liberal Democrats would have only won two seats ( Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland), instead of the four they did win that year, as the expanded electorates in the other two would overcome their slender majorities.

Under the new boundaries, Wales will lose eight seats, electing 32 MPs instead of the 40 they elected in 2019. Welsh Labour would have won 18 instead of the 22 MPs they elected in 2019, and the Welsh Conservatives 12 instead of 14. Due to the abolition and merging of rural constituencies in West Wales, Plaid Cymru would have only won two seats instead of four. Nonetheless, the boundaries are expected to cause difficulty for the Conservatives as more pro-Labour areas are added to some of their safest seats.

In Northern Ireland, the notional results are identical to the actual results of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland.

Contesting political parties and candidates

Most candidates are representatives of a political party, which must be registered with the Electoral Commission's Register. Those who do not belong to one must use the label ''Independent'' or none.

Great Britain

Campaign

22–31 May

On the afternoon of 22 May 2024, Sunak announced that the general election would be held on 4 July 2024, surprising his own MPs. Sunak told news agencies that this is "proof that the plan and priorities I set out are working utthis hard earned economic stability was only ever meant to be the beginning". The calling of the election was welcomed by Keir Starmer, Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party, and by Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats. Starmer said that the election is an "opportunity for change", mentioning the issues of sewage in British rivers, people waiting on trolleys in A&E, the cost of living crisis, and crime going "virtually unpunished", as he attacked the Conservative Party's record in government, while Davey said that "people are crying out for change."

Sunak's announcement received significant media coverage for taking place during heavy rain at a lectern outside 10 Downing Street, without the use of any umbrella or shelter from the rain. The D:Ream song " Things Can Only Get Better" (frequently used by the Labour Party, then led by Tony Blair, in their successful 1997 campaign) was unexpectedly played by the political activist Steve Bray as Sunak announced the date of the general election. This led to the song entering the top 10 on the iTunes Charts within 24 hours. The band later stated they regretted the use of the song in political campaigns and would not grant permission for it to be used in future campaigns. At the beginning of the campaign, Labour had a significant lead in polling over the Conservatives. Polling would also show Labour doing well against the SNP in Scotland. In 2023, Starmer set out five missions for a Labour government, targeting issues such as economic growth, health, clean energy, crime, and education. Starmer has also emphasised the importance of eliminating antisemitism in the Labour Party. In his response to the calling of the election, Starmer offered three reasons why voters should vote for Labour, firstly to "stop the chaos", secondly "because it’s time for change" and thirdly because Labour have "a long-term plan to rebuild Britain" that "is ready to go, fully-costed and fully funded."

On 23 May, Sunak said that before the election there would be no flights to Rwanda for those seeking asylum. Immigration figures were published for 2023 showing immigration remained at historically high levels, but had fallen compared to 2022. Nigel Farage initially said that he would not stand as a candidate in the election, while the party Reform UK said it would stand in 630 seats across England, Scotland and Wales. Farage later announced on 3 June that, contrary to his statement earlier in the campaign, he would stand for Parliament in Clacton, and that he had resumed leadership of Reform UK. He also said that Labour would win the election. Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrat campaign in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire. The SNP campaign launch the same day was overshadowed over a dispute around leader John Swinney's support for Michael Matheson and developments in Operation Branchform. Starmer launched the Labour Party campaign in Gillingham at the Priestfield Stadium, home of Gillingham Football Club.

On 24 May, the Conservatives proposed setting up a Royal Commission to consider a form of mandatory national service. Jeremy Corbyn announced on 24 May he was running as an independent against a Labour candidate, and was thus expelled from the party. On 27 May, Starmer made a keynote speech on security and other issues.

On 28 May, the Conservatives pledged a "Triple Lock Plus" where the personal income tax allowance for pensioners would always stay higher than the state pension. Labour criticised the policy as being uncosted. Ed Davey went paddleboarding on Lake Windermere in the marginal constituency of Westmorland and Lonsdale, highlighting the release of sewage in waterways. He pledged to abolish Ofwat and introduce a new water regulator to tackle the situation, in addition to proposing a ban on bonuses for chief executives of water companies. Starmer was in West Sussex and emphasised his small town roots in first big campaign speech.

On 29 May, Labour's Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting promised a 18-week NHS waiting target within five years of a Labour government. On the same day the junior doctors announced new strike days in the days before the election.

Starmer denied that Diane Abbott had been blocked as a candidate amid differing reports. Abbott had been elected as a Labour MP, but had been suspended from the parliamentary party for a brief period. There was controversy about further Labour Party candidate selections, with several candidates on the left of the party being excluded.

On 30 May, both the Conservatives and Labour ruled out any rise in value-added tax. The SNPs Màiri McAllan claimed that only the SNP offers Scotland a route back into the European Union making Pro-Europeanism part of the party's campaign. Reform UK proposed an immigration tax on British firms who employ foreign workers, and also ruled out any pacts with other parties. The Green Party campaign was launched in Bristol. Plaid Cymru launched their campaign in Bangor.

1 June – present

On 1 June, the Conservatives and Labour unveiled their campaign buses. Labour promised to cut net migration. The Workers Party launched their campaign in Ashton-under-Lyne.

On 3 June, Sunak pledged to tackle what he called the "confusion" over the legal definition of sex by proposing amending the Equality Act, and was photobombed by the Liberal Democrats while campaigning in Henley-on-Thames. Labour focused on national security, with Starmer reaffirming his commitment to a "nuclear deterrent triple lock", including building four new nuclear submarines. A YouGov poll conducted on the same day revealed Labour to be on course for the party’s biggest election victory in history, beating Tony Blair's 1997 landslide. The poll indicated Labour could win 422 seats, while the Conservatives were projected to win 140 seats.

On 4 June, Nigel Farage launched his campaign in Clacton. He announced the previous day that he intends Reform UK to be the Official Opposition following the election as opposed to the Conservatives, saying that the Conservatives are incapable of being the Opposition due to "spending most of the last five years fighting each other rather than fighting for the interests of this country".

On 6 June, the Greens announced plans to invest an extra £50 billion a year for the NHS by raising taxes on the top 1% of earners. Social care has been a campaign issue. The Conservatives also announced a policy on expanding child benefit for higher-earners.

Sunak and Starmer attended D-Day commemorations on 6 June, the 80th anniversary. Sunak was heavily criticised for leaving events early to do an interview with ITV, including by veterans. Starmer met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and King Charles III during the D-Day commemorations, and said that Sunak "has to answer for his actions." Sunak apologised the next day and apologised again on 10 June.

Farage was among those critical of Sunak over his leaving the D-Day events, saying on 7 June that Sunak did not understand "our culture". Conservative and Labour politicians criticised these words as being a racist attack on Sunak, which Farage denied. Douglas Ross announced he would stand down as the leader of the Scottish Conservatives after the election. With Reform UK doing well in the polls, Suella Braverman argued that the Conservatives should find a way to work with Reform UK and welcome Farage back into the Conservatives.

On 10 June, Labour pledged 100,000 new childcare places and more than 3,000 new nurseries as part of its childcare plan. The Liberal Democrat manifesto was also released on 10 June, with the Conservative manifesto coming on 11 June.

Media coverage

On 23 May, Sky News announced that their election night coverage would be hosted by Kay Burley and Sophy Ridge, with analysis from Andy Burnham and Ruth Davidson. They will be joined by Beth Rigby, Trevor Phillips, Ed Conway and Sam Coates. On 24 May, Channel 4 announced that their coverage would be hosted by Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Emily Maitlis, with analysis from Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. On 28 May, BBC News announced that their coverage would be hosted by Clive Myrie and Laura Kuenssberg, with analysis from Sir John Curtice, Jeremy Vine and Reeta Chakrabarti.

Debates

The Conservatives challenged Keir Starmer to six televised debates. Labour announced that it would not agree to such a proposal, and offered two head-to-head debates—one shown on the BBC, and one shown on ITV; a spokesperson said both networks would offer the greatest audience, and the prospect of any debates on smaller channels would be rejected as it would not be a "valuable use of campaign time". Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey declared his wish to be included in "any televised debates". Starmer confirmed he would take part in a "leaders' event" hosted by Sky News, in which he would take questions from an audience in Grimsby, and that negotiations were undergoing for Sunak to also attend.

On 29 May it was announced that the first leaders debate would be hosted by ITV News and titled "Sunak v Starmer: The ITV Debate" with Julie Etchingham as moderator, on Tuesday 4 June. Key topics were the cost of living crisis, the NHS, immigration and tax policy. Sunak asserted that Labour would cost households £2000 more in tax, which Starmer denied. Sunak claimed this figure was calculated by "independent Treasury officials". Fact checkers disputed the sum, noting it was based on assumptions made by political appointees and that the figure was over a 4-year period. On 5 June, the BBC reported that James Bowler, the Treasury permanent secretary, wrote that, "civil servants were not involved in the ..calculation of the total figure used" and that, "any costings derived from other sources or produced by other organisations should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service". The Office for Statistics Regulation also criticised the claim on the grounds that it was presented without the listener knowing it was a sum over 4 years. A YouGov snap poll after the debate indicated that 46% of debate viewers thought Sunak had performed better, and 45% believed Starmer had performed better. A Savanta poll published the next day, however, favoured Starmer 44% to Sunak 39%.

Nigel Farage, Carla Denyer, Rhun ap Iorwerth, Daisy Cooper, Stephen Flynn, Angela Rayner and Penny Mordaunt took part in a televised head-to-head debate on the BBC on 7 June. The debate included several heated exchanges between Mordaunt and Rayner, and all the attendees criticised Sunak leaving the D-Day events early; Farage called Sunak’s actions “disgraceful” and said veterans had been deserted, Cooper said it was "politically shameful" and Mordaunt said Sunak's choice to leave prematurely had been "completely wrong." After the seven-way debate, a snap poll found that viewers considered Farage had won, followed by Rayner, but that Flynn, Denyer and Cooper scored best on doing a good job.

On 29 May, STV announced the first debate of the campaign will take place on Monday 3 June with four leaders of Scottish parties.

Future BBC debates include a head-to-head debate between Sunak and Starmer and a ''Question Time'' special with half an hour given to the leaders of the four biggest parties.

ITV announced on 31 May a further debate would take place incorporating all the seven main parties. Sky News is hosting a Town hall event on 12 June which will include Starmer.

Endorsements

Newspapers, organisations, and individuals have endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election.

Candidates

Details on MPs standing down, MPs deselected or seeking a new constituency, MPs standing under a different political affiliation, former MPs seeking to return to Parliament, MPs changing constituencies, and incumbent MPs standing against each other are in the articles on Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

Opinion polling

Projections: Four weeks before the vote

The Speaker of the House is included in the other section.

See also

* 2020s in United Kingdom political history
* 2024 in politics and government
* 2024 United Kingdom general election in England
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in the East of England
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in the East Midlands
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in London
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in North East England
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in North West England
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in South East England
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in South West England
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in the West Midlands
** 2024 United Kingdom general election in Yorkshire and the Humber
* 2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
* 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland
* 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
* List of target seats in the 2024 United Kingdom general election
* Elections in the United Kingdom
* List of general elections in the United Kingdom

Notes

References

{{Keir Starmer

General election
General election
General election
General elections to the Parliament of the United Kingdom
Keir Starmer
Premiership of Rishi Sunak
Future elections in the United Kingdom