Hurricane Elsa (2021)

Hurricane Elsa was a destructive tropical cyclone that affected many countries along its path during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the earliest-forming fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, and the first hurricane of the season. It formed over the central tropical Atlantic, farther east in the Main Development Region than any June storm at the time, except for the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.

Originating from a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on June 27, the disturbance become organized as a tropical depression on June 30, about east-southeast of Barbados, and strengthened to a tropical storm soon thereafter. Then, riding the south edge of a strong subtropical ridge, Elsa moved swiftly westward on July 1, while rapidly intensifying. The storm strengthened to a hurricane around 12:00 UTC on July 2, as its center moved just south of Barbados, and then reached its peak intensity six hours later with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of and a minimum central pressure of , about west-northwest of Saint Vincent. This made Elsa the strongest July hurricane recorded in the eastern Caribbean Sea since Emily in 2005.

On July 3, Elsa weakened back into a tropical storm before slowing down by July 4, as it passed just north of Jamaica. On July 5, Elsa made landfall in Cuba, before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico early on the next day. It then paralleled the west coast of Florida, briefly becoming a minimal hurricane again as it passed west of Tampa, early on July 7. Elsa then weakened back to a tropical storm, before making landfall later that day in Taylor County, Florida, with maximum winds of about . Afterward, Elsa began accelerating northeastward across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, restrengthening slightly due to its proximity to the Atlantic. Elsa emerged back over water off New Jersey early on July 9, and moved over eastern Long Island and western Rhode Island, before becoming extratropical at 18:00 UTC that day, while moving through New England. Afterward, Elsa's extratropical remnant accelerated northeastward and slowly weakened. The storm dissipated over Atlantic Canada on July 10.

Altogether there were 13 deaths associated with Elsa: nine in the Florida Straits, two in the Dominican Republic, one in Martinique, and one in the United States. As Elsa raced past the Lesser Antilles, it caused extensive damage on several islands. In Barbados, the storm brought down trees, damaged roofs, caused widespread power outages, and caused flash flooding. Its main impact in Cuba was flash flooding and mudslides. The storm caused widespread damage throughout the U.S., especially in the Northeast. Atlantic Canada experienced many outages and high amounts of rainfall from a post-tropical Elsa. The storm dealt upwards of $1.2 billion in damages in the United States, with additional damage in the Caribbean.

Upon its naming, Elsa received widespread social media attention, due to the storm sharing its name with the Disney character Elsa from the '' Frozen'' franchise.

Meteorological history

On June 27, a tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa and tracked quickly westward across the Atlantic Ocean. The wave produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms during the next few days, before a closed and well-defined low pressure system developed by 18:00 UTC on June 30, marking the formation of a tropical depression about east-southeast of Barbados. The potential for tropical cyclone formation within the wave was first noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 12:00 UTC on June 29, and initially given a low (less than 40%) chance of development over the next five days. The 5-day chance of formation was raised to high (greater than 60%) at 06:00 UTC on June 30. Later that day, after the system had moved to near the Lesser Antilles and was expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, the disturbance was designated as ''Potential Tropical Cyclone Five'' at 21:00 UTC. However, the system became a tropical cyclone according to post-season analysis three hours before that initial advisory. The depression strengthened to a tropical storm by 00:00 UTC on July 1, while about east-southeast of Barbados, and named ''Elsa''. This made Elsa the earliest fifth-named Atlantic storm in recorded history, surpassing Tropical Storm Edouard of 2020 by five days; it also became only the third tropical storm on record to form so early in the season east of 50°W, after the 1933 Trinidad hurricane and Tropical Storm Bret in 2023.

Elsa became better organized, forming better-defined banding features on the western and southwestern portions of the storm. Well-defined upper-level outflow was produced on the western side of the cyclone, although outflow was ill-defined on the eastern half. Steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north, the system moved swiftly westward at speeds of around . During the same period of time, Elsa began a period of rapid intensification. By early on July 2, microwave and radar data indicated that a small inner core had formed, and surface observations from the southern portion of Barbados, which was estimated to be within the radius of Elsa's maximum wind, reported sustained winds of and a gust to , and Elsa strengthened to a hurricane as the center moved just south of Barbados around 12:00 UTC that day. The first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, its formation came more than a month before the average appearance of the season's first hurricane. Six hours later, Elsa reached its peak intensity with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of and a minimum central pressure of , while located about west-northwest of Saint Vincent. This was the culmination of a intensification over a 24-hour period. Elsa's forward speed increased while it moved across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early on July 3, but the low-level center became exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection, and it weakened into a tropical storm about south of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. The storm continued to lose strength later that day and early on July 4, as the center passed offshore but near the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti and then just north of Jamaica. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Elsa late on July 4, found it to be undergoing a convective burst and beginning to restrengthen. At 18:00 UTC on July 5, Elsa made landfall on the south coast of Cuba in Cienaga de Zapata National Park with maximum winds of about .

Several hours later, at 02:00 UTC on July 6, Elsa emerged into the Straits of Florida, where it began to regain its strength. The storm once more became a hurricane at 00:00 UTC on July 7, about west of Englewood, Florida, but weakened back into a tropical storm six hours later. This weakening was likely caused by a combination of wind shear and an entrainment of dry air. Elsa then accelerated northward, and it made landfall in Taylor County, Florida, at 14:30 UTC that same day with maximum winds of about . Following landfall, Elsa turned northeastward and gradually began to weaken, though the storm continued to maintain tropical storm intensity. Most of its convection, however, was in a band in the eastern semicircle over the nearby Atlantic Ocean. The center of the storm emerged over the Atlantic off New Jersey early on July 9. After moving northeastward and making landfall on eastern Long Island and western Rhode Island, Elsa became a post-tropical cyclone by 18:00 UTC that same day while over southeastern New England. Elsa's extratropical remnant accelerated northeastward and slowly weakened. The storm dissipated over Atlantic Canada before 12:00 UTC July 10.

Preparations

Lesser Antilles

Upon designation as a potential tropical cyclone at 21:00 UTC on June 30, Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the islands of Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Shortly afterward, the Government of France also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe. These were later upgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings in Barbados, Martinique, and St. Lucia early on July 1. On July 2, 2021, Sint Eustatius also issued a hurricane warning.

In Barbados, marine and flash flood advisories were posted on the island by June 30, in addition to the tropical cyclone watches and warnings by the meteorological service of the country. A rainfall total of were also expected within Elsa's passage on the country, according to the Barbados Meteorological Service. Home Affairs Minister Wilfred Abrahams urged residents to shelter in place unless their homes were damaged; this was echoed by Department of Emergency Management Kerry Hinds. The DEM also advised residents to make hurricane preparations and to only use emergency shelters as a last resort. The Port Saint Charles opened for large fishing vessels more than to dock during Elsa. The island country was also in a lockdown as the people there rush to protect their homes and buy food supplies ahead of the hurricane while 54 native individuals in the area were brought in evacuation shelters to ride out the storm. CSEC and CAPE exams are announced to be postponed on July 2 while a quarantine facility was moved to safety as it was near the coast. All pumping stations on the island of Barbados were shut down as a precautionary measure.

Elsa threatened the Windward Islands during the 2021 eruption of La Soufrière on St. Vincent, with interests in the region being asked to monitor for official updates. Flash floods, landslides and lahars were also expected on the island and as a result, persons near these prone areas were ordered to evacuate immediately. of rain was forecasted for the country by July 2, while were expected for the next day. The National Emergency Management Organisation of the area also warned the public to not venture outside as conditions will be dangerous due to Elsa. Businesses, schools and other public utilities were instructed to temporarily close due to the hurricane, except essential workers such as police, health services and others which has to remain alert under their departments. Ferry services between the Saint Vincent Island and the Grenadine Islands were suspended starting July 1, while 94 shelters across the former were prepared for those who need to evacuate due to Elsa. The Argyle International Airport were also closed starting that day while marine advisories were posted on the island until July 4 for small fishcrafts. Martinique was also placed on a yellow alert, in sync with another tropical wave ahead of Elsa.

In Saint Lucia, a national shutdown was declared for July 2, with residents being advised to remain indoors until an all clear was given. The George F. L. Charles Airport and Hewanorra International Airport ceased operations for that same day. Banks across St. Lucia were closed in accordance with the national shutdown, but mobile and online banking, ATMs, and night depository services remained available for use. Local weather offices urged small craft to remain at port for the hurricane and for those in flood and landslide-prone areas to take precautions. Two examination council events that students could partake in had to be called off due to the hurricane. A COVID-19 vaccination drive was also postponed due to the storm.

Greater Antilles

A Tropical Storm Watch was put in effect for the southern and western coasts of Haiti from the Dominican Republic–Haiti border to Môle-Saint-Nicolas at 21:00 UTC on July 1. A few hours later, a Tropical Storm Watch was ordered for the Dominican Republic from the border with Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque, as well as the entire island of Jamaica. By 9:00 UTC the next day, the watch in the Dominican Republic was upgraded into a Tropical Storm Warning from Cape Engaño to the Haitian border. The Tropical Storm Warning further extended through all of Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch was posted from the international border to the national capital of Port-au-Prince. Six hours later, the Hurricane Watch in Haiti was upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, with a Hurricane Watch being issued for Jamaica as well as the Dominican Republic from the international border to Punta Palenque. Also in the Dominican Republic, a Tropical Storm Watch was put in place from Cape Engaño to Bahia de Manzanillo on the northern coast of the country. At around 18:00 UTC, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands. Then, by 21:00 UTC on the same day, a Hurricane Warning was issued for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. The Hurricane Warning in Jamaica was downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch in Cuba was upgraded to a warning, with a new watch extending to Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas provinces, at 15:00 UTC on July 3. About six hours later, the remaining Tropical Storm Watch in Cuba was once again upgraded to a warning with Mayabeque Province and Havana

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