In
statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
, an estimator is a rule for calculating an
estimate
Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is de ...
of a given
quantity
Quantity or amount is a property that can exist as a multitude or magnitude, which illustrate discontinuity and continuity. Quantities can be compared in terms of "more", "less", or "equal", or by assigning a numerical value multiple of a u ...
based on
observed data: thus the rule (the estimator), the quantity of interest (the
estimand An estimand is a quantity that is to be estimated in a statistical analysis. The term is used to distinguish the target of inference from the method used to obtain an approximation of this target (i.e., the estimator) and the specific value obtain ...
) and its result (the estimate) are distinguished. For example, the
sample mean
The sample mean (sample average) or empirical mean (empirical average), and the sample covariance or empirical covariance are statistics computed from a sample of data on one or more random variables.
The sample mean is the average value (or me ...
is a commonly used estimator of the
population mean
In statistics, a population is a set of similar items or events which is of interest for some question or experiment. A statistical population can be a group of existing objects (e.g. the set of all stars within the Milky Way galaxy) or a hyp ...
.
There are
point and
interval estimators. The
point estimators yield single-valued results. This is in contrast to an
interval estimator, where the result would be a range of plausible values. "Single value" does not necessarily mean "single number", but includes vector valued or function valued estimators.
''
Estimation theory
Estimation theory is a branch of statistics that deals with estimating the values of Statistical parameter, parameters based on measured empirical data that has a random component. The parameters describe an underlying physical setting in such ...
'' is concerned with the properties of estimators; that is, with defining properties that can be used to compare different estimators (different rules for creating estimates) for the same quantity, based on the same data. Such properties can be used to determine the best rules to use under given circumstances. However, in
robust statistics
Robust statistics are statistics that maintain their properties even if the underlying distributional assumptions are incorrect. Robust Statistics, statistical methods have been developed for many common problems, such as estimating location parame ...
, statistical theory goes on to consider the balance between having good properties, if tightly defined assumptions hold, and having worse properties that hold under wider conditions.
Background
An "estimator" or "
point estimate" is a
statistic
A statistic (singular) or sample statistic is any quantity computed from values in a sample which is considered for a statistical purpose. Statistical purposes include estimating a population parameter, describing a sample, or evaluating a hypot ...
(that is, a function of the data) that is used to infer the value of an unknown
parameter
A parameter (), generally, is any characteristic that can help in defining or classifying a particular system (meaning an event, project, object, situation, etc.). That is, a parameter is an element of a system that is useful, or critical, when ...
in a
statistical model
A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of Sample (statistics), sample data (and similar data from a larger Statistical population, population). A statistical model repre ...
. A common way of phrasing it is "the estimator is the method selected to obtain an estimate of an unknown parameter".
The parameter being estimated is sometimes called the ''
estimand An estimand is a quantity that is to be estimated in a statistical analysis. The term is used to distinguish the target of inference from the method used to obtain an approximation of this target (i.e., the estimator) and the specific value obtain ...
''. It can be either finite-dimensional (in
parametric and
semi-parametric models), or infinite-dimensional (
semi-parametric and
non-parametric models). If the parameter is denoted
then the estimator is traditionally written by adding a
circumflex
The circumflex () is a diacritic in the Latin and Greek scripts that is also used in the written forms of many languages and in various romanization and transcription schemes. It received its English name from "bent around"a translation of ...
over the symbol:
. Being a function of the data, the estimator is itself a
random variable
A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a Mathematics, mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on randomness, random events. The term 'random variable' in its mathema ...
; a particular realization of this random variable is called the "estimate". Sometimes the words "estimator" and "estimate" are used interchangeably.
The definition places virtually no restrictions on which functions of the data can be called the "estimators". The attractiveness of different estimators can be judged by looking at their properties, such as
unbiasedness,
mean square error,
consistency
In deductive logic, a consistent theory is one that does not lead to a logical contradiction. A theory T is consistent if there is no formula \varphi such that both \varphi and its negation \lnot\varphi are elements of the set of consequences ...
,
asymptotic distribution, etc. The construction and comparison of estimators are the subjects of the
estimation theory
Estimation theory is a branch of statistics that deals with estimating the values of Statistical parameter, parameters based on measured empirical data that has a random component. The parameters describe an underlying physical setting in such ...
. In the context of
decision theory
Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability theory, probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses expected utility and probabilities, probability to model how individuals would behave Rationality, ratio ...
, an estimator is a type of
decision rule, and its performance may be evaluated through the use of
loss functions.
When the word "estimator" is used without a qualifier, it usually refers to point estimation. The estimate in this case is a single point in the
parameter space. There also exists another type of estimator:
interval estimators, where the estimates are subsets of the parameter space.
The problem of
density estimation arises in two applications. Firstly, in estimating the
probability density function
In probability theory, a probability density function (PDF), density function, or density of an absolutely continuous random variable, is a Function (mathematics), function whose value at any given sample (or point) in the sample space (the s ...
s of random variables and secondly in estimating the
spectral density function of a
time series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. ...
. In these problems the estimates are functions that can be thought of as point estimates in an infinite dimensional space, and there are corresponding interval estimation problems.
Definition
Suppose a fixed ''parameter''
needs to be estimated. Then an "estimator" is a function that maps the
sample space
In probability theory, the sample space (also called sample description space, possibility space, or outcome space) of an experiment or random trial is the set of all possible outcomes or results of that experiment. A sample space is usually den ...
to a set of ''sample estimates''. An estimator of
is usually denoted by the symbol
. It is often convenient to express the theory using the
algebra of random variables: thus if ''X'' is used to denote a
random variable
A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a Mathematics, mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on randomness, random events. The term 'random variable' in its mathema ...
corresponding to the observed data, the estimator (itself treated as a random variable) is symbolised as a function of that random variable,
. The estimate for a particular observed data value
(i.e. for
) is then
, which is a fixed value. Often an abbreviated notation is used in which
is interpreted directly as a
random variable
A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a Mathematics, mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on randomness, random events. The term 'random variable' in its mathema ...
, but this can cause confusion.
Quantified properties
The following definitions and attributes are relevant.
Error
For a given sample
, the "
error
An error (from the Latin , meaning 'to wander'Oxford English Dictionary, s.v. “error (n.), Etymology,” September 2023, .) is an inaccurate or incorrect action, thought, or judgement.
In statistics, "error" refers to the difference between t ...
" of the estimator
is defined as
:
where
is the parameter being estimated. The error, ''e'', depends not only on the estimator (the estimation formula or procedure), but also on the sample.
Mean squared error
The
mean squared error
In statistics, the mean squared error (MSE) or mean squared deviation (MSD) of an estimator (of a procedure for estimating an unobserved quantity) measures the average of the squares of the errors—that is, the average squared difference betwee ...
of
is defined as the expected value (probability-weighted average, over all samples) of the squared errors; that is,
:
It is used to indicate how far, on average, the collection of estimates are from the single parameter being estimated. Consider the following analogy. Suppose the parameter is the
bull's-eye of a target, the estimator is the process of shooting arrows at the target, and the individual arrows are estimates (samples). Then high MSE means the average distance of the arrows from the bull's eye is high, and low MSE means the average distance from the bull's eye is low. The arrows may or may not be clustered. For example, even if all arrows hit the same point, yet grossly miss the target, the MSE is still relatively large. However, if the MSE is relatively low then the arrows are likely more highly clustered (than highly dispersed) around the target.
Sampling deviation
For a given sample
, the ''sampling deviation'' of the estimator
is defined as
:
where
is the
expected value
In probability theory, the expected value (also called expectation, expectancy, expectation operator, mathematical expectation, mean, expectation value, or first Moment (mathematics), moment) is a generalization of the weighted average. Informa ...
of the estimator. The sampling deviation, ''d'', depends not only on the estimator, but also on the sample.
Variance
The
variance
In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean of a random variable. The standard deviation (SD) is obtained as the square root of the variance. Variance is a measure of dispersion ...
of
is the expected value of the squared sampling deviations; that is,
. It is the distance between the average of the collection of estimates, and the single parameter being estimated. The bias of
.
There are two kinds of estimators: biased estimators and unbiased estimators. Whether an estimator is biased or not can be identified by the relationship between
. If the parameter is the bull's eye of a target and the arrows are estimates, then a relatively high absolute value for the bias means the average position of the arrows is off-target, and a relatively low absolute bias means the average position of the arrows is on target. They may be dispersed, or may be clustered. The relationship between bias and variance is analogous to the relationship between accuracy and precision.
The estimator
. Bias is a property of the estimator, not of the estimate. Often, people refer to a "biased estimate" or an "unbiased estimate", but they really are talking about an "estimate from a biased estimator", or an "estimate from an unbiased estimator". Also, people often confuse the "error" of a single estimate with the "bias" of an estimator. That the error for one estimate is large, does not mean the estimator is biased. In fact, even if all estimates have astronomical absolute values for their errors, if the expected value of the error is zero, the estimator is unbiased. Also, an estimator's being biased does not preclude the error of an estimate from being zero in a particular instance. The ideal situation is to have an unbiased estimator with low variance, and also try to limit the number of samples where the error is extreme (that is, to have few
). Yet unbiasedness is not essential. Often, if just a little bias is permitted, then an estimator can be found with lower mean squared error and/or fewer outlier sample estimates.
An alternative to the version of "unbiased" above, is "median-unbiased", where the
of the distribution of estimates agrees with the true value; thus, in the long run half the estimates will be too low and half too high. While this applies immediately only to scalar-valued estimators, it can be extended to any measure of
. For example, if a genetic theory states there is a type of leaf (starchy green) that occurs with probability
distribution. The number can be used to express the following estimator for
. One can show that