2025 Ecuadorian General Election

General elections were held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. As no presidential candidate secured an outright majority, a run-off was conducted on 13 April 2025. Incumbent President Daniel Noboa was re-elected for a full term, defeating Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement in a rematch. The elections also included selecting members of the National Assembly, the 21 provincial assemblies, and Ecuador's representatives to the Andean Parliament to serve full four-year terms.

In the first round, Noboa had received 44.17% of the vote, slightly ahead of González, who received 44%. The coalition formed by the Citizen Revolution Movement and the RETO Movement, led by former President Rafael Correa, secured a narrow plurality in the National Assembly with 67 seats, followed closely by Noboa's National Democratic Action party with 66 seats. Voter turnout for the first round was approximately 82%.

On 12 April 2025, a state of emergency was declared leading up to the second round. In the second round, Noboa received 55.63% of the vote, defeating González by 11.25 percentage points. The result exceeded expectations, with Noboa's campaign notable for its focus on young voters. González demanded a recount, claiming the results had discrepancies with pre-election polls and exit polls and were fraudulent. Several media outlets said that González's claims of fraud lacked evidence. International observers, including the European Union and the Organization of American States, determined the elections were free and fair, rejecting claims of fraud.

Background

The 2025 election was held after an early election in 2023 after former President Guillermo Lasso invoked the 'muerte cruzada', just days before a congressional impeachment vote. That constitutional mechanism dissolved the National Assembly and triggered a snap election. In that election, Daniel Noboa was elected to complete Lasso's unfinished term, which runs until May 2025.

The 2025 election saw Ecuador returning to its regular electoral schedule to determine the president and vice president for a full four-year term, alongside members of the National Assembly.

Electoral system

The president is elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, to be elected in the first round. The president is limited to two consecutive four-year terms. However, Noboa is serving the remaining term of Guillermo Lasso, whose invoking of ''muerte cruzada'' called for the 2023 snap general elections and his early conclusion of his presidency.

Members of the National Assembly are elected by three methods. Fifteen are elected by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency. Six are elected by overseas voters (two each from Canada/United States, Latin America and Asia/Europe/Oceania). The remaining 116 members are elected from multi-member constituencies by closed list proportional representation, with all seats allocated using the Webster method. Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, regardless if they are consecutive or not. There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.

Presidential candidates

Advanced to run-off

Eliminated in first round

The following candidates have officially submitted their candidacy through the CNE and were eliminated in the first round of voting:

Minor candidates

The following pre-candidates were selected in the primaries of the national parties and were eligible for inscription but were not notable enough due to lack of coverage or not being present in a national opinion poll:

* Víctor Araus (People, Equality and Democracy), former General of the National Police of Ecuador
* Juan Iván Cueva (AMIGO), businessman
* Pedro Granja (PSE), criminal lawyer
* Eduardo Sánchez ( RETO), businessman
* Luis Tillería ( Avanza), businessman, council member of the City of London Corporation
* Enrique Gómez (SUMA Party), psychologist

Withdrawn

Declined

The following notable individuals were the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy but publicly denied interest in running or were rejected as pre-candidates and declined to pursue their candidacies.

* Bolívar Armijos Velasco, President of the National Council of Rural Parochial Governments of Ecuador (2014–2019) and 2023 presidential candidate
* Pedro Freile, Director of the Inter-American Development Bank Ecuadorian Division (2004–2005), 2021 presidential candidate (''endorsed Topić)''
* Lucio Gutiérrez, member of the National Assembly (2023–present) and 43rd President of Ecuador (2003–2005) ''(endorsed González Náder)''
* Guillermo Lasso (CREO), 47th President of Ecuador (2021–2023) (''endorsed Tabacchi'')
* Claudia Ormaza Loor (MCD), engineer
* Edwin Ortega (Gente Buena), retired Captain of the Ecuadorian Army (''did not find support from any national party'')
* Dallyana Passailaigue, member of the National Assembly (2017–present) ''(running for vice president; endorsed Kronfle)''
* Cristina Reyes, President of the Andean Parliament (2023–present), Member of the National Assembly (2013–2021), Municipal Councillor of Guayaquil (2009–2012) ''(running for vice president; endorsed Cueva)''
* Diana Salazar Méndez, Attorney General of Ecuador (2019–present)

Opinion polls

Presidential election

First round

Second round

Conduct

On election day, the government deployed armored vehicles and soldiers carrying machine guns to secure polling booths while the country's land borders were closed.

Noboa's behavior during the official campaign period was criticized by the suspended Vice President and the opposition. He faced accusations of misusing public funds, engaging in lawfare against his detractors and exploiting public resources. There had been criticism regarding his social media advertising, which allegedly utilized bots and fake accounts.

A legal dispute has been ongoing since Noboa's refusal to relinquish his office during the official electoral period, which was intended for his vice president, Verónica Abad Rojas according to campaign law. Noboa told Congress stating, "Today, I will be President of Ecuador until 5 p.m. and will resume office at 11:59 p.m." while he attended political rallies. On other occasions, he had his secretary inform Congress that she was temporarily assuming the presidency. Abad had previously been suspended in November 2024 by the labor ministry for 150 days. Her suspension was lifted by a judge in December 2024, ordering the labor ministry to give her an apology for the suspension. On 30 March 2025, Noboa caused controversy for ignoring the Constitutional Court and appointing Cynthia Gellibert by decree as Vice President, suspending Abad once again, who was disenfranchised for two years by the TCE in a 3–2 decision issued in a gender-based political violence counterclaim filed by Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld following Abad's initial lawsuit against Noboa and others for alleged harassment. Analysts said Noboa was focused on institutional stability and a leadership aligned with his vision of government, which reinforced his political strategy in the wake of this election.

Noboa declared a state of emergency in seven of Ecuador's provinces leading up to the runoff election. According to European Union observers, the candidates were able to campaign without restrictions, and the freedoms of assembly and movement were guaranteed, despite the State of Exception in force. Freedoms of expression and the press were also respected. The observers noted, however, President Noboa's failure to apply to the Assembly for a 'licence' at the start of the campaign contributed to blurring the boundaries between the role of candidate and the role of president and that the fraud narrative by González despite the election being transparent was problematic.

Results

Preliminary results in the first round showed no candidate in the presidential election had won an outright majority. Daniel Noboa received 44.17% of the vote, followed by Luisa González at 43.97%. Turnout was estimated at around 82%. On 24 February 2025, the Plenary of the CNE approved the numerical results of the 2025 general elections. After approval, three days were given for political organizations to file appeals with the CNE or the TCE if they considered it necessary. The final results for the presidential candidates were released on 12 March 2025. Luisa González achieved 44% (4,510,860 votes) and Daniel Noboa 44.17% (4,527,606 votes). The difference between them was 16,746 votes. During the election, Noboa's mother, Anabella Azín was elected to the National Assembly to represent the national constituency.

In the second round, Noboa received 55.63% of the vote, defeating González by 11.25 percentage points. The result exceeded expectations based on pre-election polling, with Noboa's campaign notable for its focus on young voters. Noboa was congratulated by various international leaders. González refused to concede and has requested a recount, alleging fraud without providing evidence. International observers, including the European Union and the Organization of American States, confirmed the elections were free and fair. Noboa held a victory rally in , calling it a "historic victory," saying: "A victory by more than 10 points, a victory by over a million votes, leaving no doubt about who the winner is." González refused to concede, claiming election fraud without evidence.

In the National Assembly, the coalition formed by the Citizen Revolution Movement and the RETO Movement, led by former President Rafael Correa, secured a narrow plurality with 67 seats, followed closely by Noboa's National Democratic Action party with 66 seats. Mónica Salazar soon after left the Citizen Revolution Movement, reducing RC-RETO to 66 seats. Most smaller parties collapsed in seat share, save for Pachakutik, which won 9 seats. In the Andean Parliament, the ADN won three of Ecuador's five seats to RC-RETO's two.

President

National Assembly

Andean Parliament

Aftermath

First round

After the results, ADN cancelled a planned party celebration in a hotel in northern Quito, and Noboa did not make public declarations. The next day, he posted a written statement on Twitter thanking his voters. González, in a party meeting in Quito, said she would have dialogues with the other candidates. In the context of the polarization in the National Assembly between left- and right-wing political factions, the nine elected Pachakutik deputies play a crucial role. The Citizen's Movement can only achieve an absolute majority of 76 seats by forming a formal alliance with the Pachakutik Party. On the other hand, Noboa can secure a majority if he obtains support from at least one dissident deputy from the opposition.

Misconduct and voting fraud allegations

On the election day, Diego Tello Flores, a senior high-ranking official, announced the results of a post-electoral voter poll. He claimed to be the only one of the four pollsters authorized by his former employer, the CNE, to conduct this poll. According to his findings, Daniel Noboa was leading Luisa González by nearly 8 points, securing 50.12% of the votes and winning the election in the first round. This announcement led to significant controversy, with officials from the Citizen Revolution Movement accusing him of fraud, as such polls typically have a minimal margin of error. Tello reiterated in a live interview on Teleamazon that he had been compensated by the firm Estrategas and acted independently from the government. However, Estrategas quickly released a statement denying the company had paid him and that it had any participation in that particular poll. In the aftermath of the Tello Flores poll, Rafael Correa and Andrés Arauz expressed concerns about a potential coup attempt by Noboa. However their claims did not come to happen, and the run-off elections proceeded as usual.

On 11 February, in his first interview after the elections, Noboa claimed he had evidence of fraud, which he alleged was confirmed by an Organization of American States report. However, officials from the OAS dismissed this claim, clarifying that no abnormalities had been detected at that time. Noboa also alleged that armed groups associated with drug trafficking were intentionally released from prisons to intimidate voters into supporting the Citizens' Revolution. This claim was dismissed by National Assembly President Viviana Veloz, as well as by Luisa González and Rafael Correa. On 17 February, Andrés Arauz filed a formal demand with the Electoral Disputes Tribunal (TCE; ) to contest the results of 700 polling station minutes from Esmeraldas Province, as well as hundreds from Sucumbíos Province, saying that it would be sufficient to secure the election of two National Deputies, increasing the number of National Assembly seats for the Citizens Revolution party from 67 to a total of 69, which was rejected.

The CNE said that several people, including poll workers, were arrested during the run-off vote on 13 April for electoral anomalies that included double voting and reports of counterfeit, pre-marked ballots. Seventeen people were caught taking photos of their ballots despite a ban imposed by the CNE due to reports of voter coercion by criminal groups.

Endorsement negotiations

On 12 February, Leonidas Iza categorically rejected any negotiations with Noboa's party, the ADN. He announced that several meetings would take place within CONAIE (Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador) and its political arm, the Pachakutik Party, to determine their stance on a potential alliance with the Citizens' Revolution for the second presidential round and beyond. On 13 February, Diego Borja, the vice-presidential candidate for Citizens Revolution, expressed a desire to initiate a joint program with Pachakutik. The primary objective is to establish a National Constituent Assembly that includes the proposal to redefine Ecuador as a Plurinational State, akin to Bolivia. On 19 February, Leonidas Iza announced the convocation of an Expanded Grand Council for 7 March 2025, where indigenous peoples would make the final decision on currently debated proposals for a programmatic political alliance with the Citizens' Revolution Movement.

On 14 February the Social Christian Party announced that they would support Daniel Noboa in the second round, saying "We have never supported or voted for Rafael Correa in any election".

On 12 March, CONAIE's branch in the Amazon region, CONFENIAE, endorsed Noboa, triggering a dispute within the organization and in Pachakutik. On 30 March, Pachakutik endorsed Luisa González after she had agreed to 25 demands listed by the party.

Run-off reactions

Domestic

In Quito and Guayaquil, Noboa supporters celebrated in the streets. The following day, support for González's call for a recount had dwindled as several prominent politicians of the Citizen Revolution Movement said Noboa had won, including Leonardo Orlando, the prefect of Manabí Province, the prefects of Guayas and Pichincha, as well as Aquiles Alvarez, the mayor of Guayaquil who added that "the worst is to be a bad loser". Pachakutik, "with total respect for democracy", congratulated Noboa for his re-election. The Social Christian Party also congratulated Noboa. The CNE dismissed the claims of fraud, saying the process had been "totally transparent." It added González had not yet made a formal request for a recount. RETO congratulated Noboa and announced they would support his administration in the National Assembly.

On 19 April, the Ministry of Government declared a state of “maximum alert” over an assassination plot against Noboa. In a statement named “The revenge of the bad losers", it said "all security protocols have been activated” due to the threat emanating from “criminal organizations, in collusion with political groups defeated at the polls”.

International

The heads of both missions of international observers from the EU and the OAS monitored the vote and said the voting atmosphere was one of "normality", as well as free and fair. Secretary General of the Organization of American States, Luis Almagro, said Noboa's win was consistent with what OAS officials observed during voting. US President Donald Trump congratulated Noboa and said he would not disappoint the Ecuadorian people, with the U.S. State Department calling the election free and fair. Noboa was also congratulated by French President Emmanuel Macron, Argentine President Javier Milei, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Chilean President Gabriel Boric, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi.

González meanwhile received support from Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who said he denounced the "horrible fraud".

References

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