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Markov Switching Multifractal
In financial econometrics (the application of statistical methods to economic data), the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) is a model of asset returns developed by Laurent E. Calvet and Adlai J. Fisher that incorporates stochastic volatility components of heterogeneous durations. MSM captures the outliers, log-memory-like volatility persistence and power variation of financial returns. In currency and equity series, MSM compares favorably with standard volatility models such as GARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH both in- and out-of-sample. MSM is used by practitioners in the financial industry to forecast volatility, compute value-at-risk, and price derivatives. MSM specification The MSM model can be specified in both discrete time and continuous time. Discrete time Let P_t denote the price of a financial asset, and let r_t = \ln (P_t / P_) denote the return over two consecutive periods. In MSM, returns are specified as : r_t = \mu + \bar(M_M_...M_)^\epsilon_t, where \mu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Econometrics
Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships.M. Hashem Pesaran (1987). "Econometrics," '' The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics'', v. 2, p. 8 p. 8–22 Reprinted in J. Eatwell ''et al.'', eds. (1990). ''Econometrics: The New Palgrave''p. 1p. 1–34Abstract (2008 revision by J. Geweke, J. Horowitz, and H. P. Pesaran). More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference". An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships". Jan Tinbergen is one of the two founding fathers of econometrics. The other, Ragnar Frisch, also coined the term in the sense in which it is used today. A basic tool for econometrics is the multiple linear regression model. ''Econometric the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation
In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference. If the likelihood function is differentiable, the derivative test for finding maxima can be applied. In some cases, the first-order conditions of the likelihood function can be solved analytically; for instance, the ordinary least squares estimator for a linear regression model maximizes the likelihood when all observed outcomes are assumed to have Normal distributions with the same variance. From the perspective of Bayesian infere ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Mathematical Finance
Mathematical finance, also known as quantitative finance and financial mathematics, is a field of applied mathematics, concerned with mathematical modeling of financial markets. In general, there exist two separate branches of finance that require advanced quantitative techniques: derivatives pricing on the one hand, and risk and portfolio management on the other. Mathematical finance overlaps heavily with the fields of computational finance and financial engineering. The latter focuses on applications and modeling, often by help of stochastic asset models, while the former focuses, in addition to analysis, on building tools of implementation for the models. Also related is quantitative investing, which relies on statistical and numerical models (and lately machine learning) as opposed to traditional fundamental analysis when managing portfolios. French mathematician Louis Bachelier's doctoral thesis, defended in 1900, is considered the first scholarly work on mathematical ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Multifractal
A multifractal system is a generalization of a fractal system in which a single exponent (the fractal dimension) is not enough to describe its dynamics; instead, a continuous spectrum of exponents (the so-called singularity spectrum) is needed. Multifractal systems are common in nature. They include the length of coastlines, mountain topography, fully developed turbulence, real-world scenes, heartbeat dynamics, human gait and activity, human brain activity, and natural luminosity time series. Models have been proposed in various contexts ranging from turbulence in fluid dynamics to internet traffic, finance, image modeling, texture synthesis, meteorology, geophysics and more. The origin of multifractality in sequential (time series) data has been attributed to mathematical convergence effects related to the central limit theorem that have as foci of convergence the family of statistical distributions known as the Tweedie exponential dispersion models, as well as the geomet ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Markov Chain
A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally, this may be thought of as, "What happens next depends only on the state of affairs ''now''." A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. Markov chains have many applications as statistical models of real-world processes, such as studying cruise control systems in motor vehicles, queues or lines of customers arriving at an airport, currency exchange rates and animal population dynamics. Markov processes are the basis for general stochastic simulation methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, which are used for simulating sampling from complex probability ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Rogemar Mamon
Rogemar Sombong Mamon, is a Canadian mathematician,Mathematics Genealogy Project. http://genealogy.math.ndsu.nodak.edu/id.php?id=60661&fChrono=1. quant, and academic. He is a co-editor of the IMAbr>Journal of Management Mathematicspublished by Oxford University Press since 2009. Mamon is known for his contributions to the developments and applications of regime-switching framework useful in economic, financial and actuarial modeling. Majority of his works promote regime-switching paradigms modulated by either discrete- or continuous-time hidden Markov models (HMM). A recurrent theme of his research is dynamic parameter estimation via HMM filtering recursions. He also made contributions in the areas of derivative pricing, asset allocation, risk measurement, filtering to remove noise from data as well as inverse problems in quantitative finance. He was the lead editor of the handbook ''Hidden Markov Models in Finance'', published by Springer. In 2010, he and two co-authors won ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Brownian Motion
Brownian motion, or pedesis (from grc, πήδησις "leaping"), is the random motion of particles suspended in a medium (a liquid or a gas). This pattern of motion typically consists of random fluctuations in a particle's position inside a fluid sub-domain, followed by a relocation to another sub-domain. Each relocation is followed by more fluctuations within the new closed volume. This pattern describes a fluid at thermal equilibrium, defined by a given temperature. Within such a fluid, there exists no preferential direction of flow (as in transport phenomena). More specifically, the fluid's overall linear and angular momenta remain null over time. The kinetic energies of the molecular Brownian motions, together with those of molecular rotations and vibrations, sum up to the caloric component of a fluid's internal energy (the equipartition theorem). This motion is named after the botanist Robert Brown, who first described the phenomenon in 1827, while looking th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Benoît Mandelbrot
Benoit B. Mandelbrot (20 November 1924 – 14 October 2010) was a Polish-born French-American mathematician and polymath with broad interests in the practical sciences, especially regarding what he labeled as "the art of #Fractals and the "theory of roughness", roughness" of physical phenomena and "the uncontrolled element in life". He referred to himself as a "fractalist" and is recognized for his contribution to the field of fractal geometry, which included coining the word "fractal", as well as developing a theory of "roughness and self-similarity" in nature. In 1936, at the age of 11, Mandelbrot and his family emigrated from Warsaw, Poland, to France. After World War II ended, Mandelbrot studied mathematics, graduating from universities in Paris and in the United States and receiving a master's degree in aeronautics from the California Institute of Technology. He spent most of his career in both the United States and France, having Multiple citizenship , dual French nat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Multifractal Model Of Asset Returns
A multifractal system is a generalization of a fractal system in which a single exponent (the fractal dimension) is not enough to describe its dynamics; instead, a continuous spectrum of exponents (the so-called singularity spectrum) is needed. Multifractal systems are common in nature. They include the length of coastlines, mountain topography, fully developed turbulence, real-world scenes, heartbeat dynamics, human gait and activity, human brain activity, and natural luminosity time series. Models have been proposed in various contexts ranging from turbulence in fluid dynamics to internet traffic, finance, image modeling, texture synthesis, meteorology, geophysics and more. The origin of multifractality in sequential (time series) data has been attributed to mathematical convergence effects related to the central limit theorem that have as foci of convergence the family of statistical distributions known as the Tweedie exponential dispersion models, as well as the geomet ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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James D
James is a common English language surname and given name: *James (name), the typically masculine first name James * James (surname), various people with the last name James James or James City may also refer to: People * King James (other), various kings named James * Saint James (other) * James (musician) * James, brother of Jesus Places Canada * James Bay, a large body of water * James, Ontario United Kingdom * James College, a college of the University of York United States * James, Georgia, an unincorporated community * James, Iowa, an unincorporated community * James City, North Carolina * James City County, Virginia ** James City (Virginia Company) ** James City Shire * James City, Pennsylvania * St. James City, Florida Arts, entertainment, and media * ''James'' (2005 film), a Bollywood film * ''James'' (2008 film), an Irish short film * ''James'' (2022 film), an Indian Kannada-language film * James the Red Engine, a character in ''Tho ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Continuous Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is the mathematical function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that the coin is fair). Examples of random phenomena include the weather conditions at some future date, the height of a randomly selected person, the fraction of male students in a school, the results of a survey to be conducted, etc. Introduction A probability distribution is a mathematical description of the probabilities of events, subsets of the sample space. The sample space, often denoted by \Omega, is the set of all possible outcomes of a random ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |