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Bayesian Model Reduction
Bayesian model reduction is a method for computing the evidence and posterior over the parameters of Bayesian models that differ in their priors. A full model is fitted to data using standard approaches. Hypotheses are then tested by defining one or more 'reduced' models with alternative (and usually more restrictive) priors, which usually – in the limit – switch off certain parameters. The evidence and parameters of the reduced models can then be computed from the evidence and estimated ( posterior) parameters of the full model using Bayesian model reduction. If the priors and posteriors are normally distributed, then there is an analytic solution which can be computed rapidly. This has multiple scientific and engineering applications: these include scoring the evidence for large numbers of models very quickly and facilitating the estimation of hierarchical models ( Parametric Empirical Bayes). Theory Consider some model with parameters \theta and a prior probability dens ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Marginal Likelihood
A marginal likelihood is a likelihood function that has been integrated over the parameter space. In Bayesian statistics, it represents the probability of generating the observed sample from a prior and is therefore often referred to as model evidence or simply evidence. Concept Given a set of independent identically distributed data points \mathbf=(x_1,\ldots,x_n), where x_i \sim p(x, \theta) according to some probability distribution parameterized by \theta, where \theta itself is a random variable described by a distribution, i.e. \theta \sim p(\theta\mid\alpha), the marginal likelihood in general asks what the probability p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) is, where \theta has been marginalized out (integrated out): :p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) = \int_\theta p(\mathbf\mid\theta) \, p(\theta\mid\alpha)\ \operatorname\!\theta The above definition is phrased in the context of Bayesian statistics in which case p(\theta\mid\alpha) is called prior density and p(\mathbf\mid\theta) is the likelihood. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Posterior Probability
The posterior probability is a type of conditional probability that results from updating the prior probability with information summarized by the likelihood via an application of Bayes' rule. From an epistemological perspective, the posterior probability contains everything there is to know about an uncertain proposition (such as a scientific hypothesis, or parameter values), given prior knowledge and a mathematical model describing the observations available at a particular time. After the arrival of new information, the current posterior probability may serve as the prior in another round of Bayesian updating. In the context of Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability distribution usually describes the epistemic uncertainty about statistical parameters conditional on a collection of observed data. From a given posterior distribution, various point and interval estimates can be derived, such as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the highest posterior density interval ( ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Bayesian Statistics
Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a ''degree of belief'' in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials. Bayesian statistical methods use Bayes' theorem to compute and update probabilities after obtaining new data. Bayes' theorem describes the conditional probability of an event based on data as well as prior information or beliefs about the event or conditions related to the event. For example, in Bayesian inference, Bayes' theorem can be used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution or statistical model. Since Bayesian statistics treats pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Prior Probability
In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable. Bayes' theorem calculates the renormalized pointwise product of the prior and the likelihood function, to produce the ''posterior probability distribution'', which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given the data. Similarly, the prior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the unconditional probability that is assigned before any relevant evidence is taken into account. Priors can be created using a num ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Normal Distribution
In statistics, a normal distribution or Gaussian distribution is a type of continuous probability distribution for a real-valued random variable. The general form of its probability density function is : f(x) = \frac e^ The parameter \mu is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode), while the parameter \sigma is its standard deviation. The variance of the distribution is \sigma^2. A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed, and is called a normal deviate. Normal distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the natural and social sciences to represent real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known. Their importance is partly due to the central limit theorem. It states that, under some conditions, the average of many samples (observations) of a random variable with finite mean and variance is itself a random variable—whose distribution converges to a normal dist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Empirical Bayes Method
Empirical Bayes methods are procedures for statistical inference in which the prior probability distribution is estimated from the data. This approach stands in contrast to standard Bayesian methods, for which the prior distribution is fixed before any data are observed. Despite this difference in perspective, empirical Bayes may be viewed as an approximation to a fully Bayesian treatment of a hierarchical model wherein the parameters at the highest level of the hierarchy are set to their most likely values, instead of being integrated out. Empirical Bayes, also known as maximum marginal likelihood, represents a convenient approach for setting hyperparameters, but has been mostly supplanted by fully Bayesian hierarchical analyses since the 2000s with the increasing availability of well-performing computation techniques. Introduction Empirical Bayes methods can be seen as an approximation to a fully Bayesian treatment of a hierarchical Bayes model. In, for example, a tw ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Bayes' Theorem
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual of a known age to be assessed more accurately (by conditioning it on their age) than simply assuming that the individual is typical of the population as a whole. One of the many applications of Bayes' theorem is Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference. When applied, the probabilities involved in the theorem may have different probability interpretations. With Bayesian probability interpretation, the theorem expresses how a degree of belief, expressed as a probability, should rationally change to account for the availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is fundamental to Baye ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo
In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprise a class of algorithms for sampling from a probability distribution. By constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution, one can obtain a sample of the desired distribution by recording states from the chain. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Various algorithms exist for constructing chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Application domains MCMC methods are primarily used for calculating numerical approximations of multi-dimensional integrals, for example in Bayesian statistics, computational physics, computational biology and computational linguistics. In Bayesian statistics, the recent development of MCMC methods has made it possible to compute large hierarchical models that require integrations over hundreds to thousands of unknown parameters. In rare even ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Variational Bayesian Methods
Variational Bayesian methods are a family of techniques for approximating intractable integrals arising in Bayesian inference and machine learning. They are typically used in complex statistical models consisting of observed variables (usually termed "data") as well as unknown parameters and latent variables, with various sorts of relationships among the three types of random variables, as might be described by a graphical model. As typical in Bayesian inference, the parameters and latent variables are grouped together as "unobserved variables". Variational Bayesian methods are primarily used for two purposes: #To provide an analytical approximation to the posterior probability of the unobserved variables, in order to do statistical inference over these variables. #To derive a lower bound for the marginal likelihood (sometimes called the ''evidence'') of the observed data (i.e. the marginal probability of the data given the model, with marginalization performed over unobserve ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Example Full And Reduced Priors
Example may refer to: * '' exempli gratia'' (e.g.), usually read out in English as "for example" * .example, reserved as a domain name that may not be installed as a top-level domain of the Internet ** example.com, example.net, example.org, example.edu, second-level domain names reserved for use in documentation as examples * HMS ''Example'' (P165), an Archer-class patrol and training vessel of the Royal Navy Arts * ''The Example'', a 1634 play by James Shirley * ''The Example'' (comics), a 2009 graphic novel by Tom Taylor and Colin Wilson * Example (musician), the British dance musician Elliot John Gleave (born 1982) * ''Example'' (album), a 1995 album by American rock band For Squirrels See also * * Exemplar (other), a prototype or model which others can use to understand a topic better * Exemplum, medieval collections of short stories to be told in sermons * Eixample The Eixample (; ) is a district of Barcelona between the old city (Ciutat Vella) and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Bayes Factor
The Bayes factor is a ratio of two competing statistical models represented by their marginal likelihood, and is used to quantify the support for one model over the other. The models in questions can have a common set of parameters, such as a null hypothesis and an alternative, but this is not necessary; for instance, it could also be a non-linear model compared to its linear approximation. The Bayes factor can be thought of as a Bayesian analog to the likelihood-ratio test, but since it uses the (integrated) marginal likelihood instead of the maximized likelihood, both tests only coincide under simple hypotheses (e.g., two specific parameter values). Also, in contrast with null hypothesis significance testing, Bayes factors support evaluation of evidence ''in favor'' of a null hypothesis, rather than only allowing the null to be rejected or not rejected. Although conceptually simple, the computation of the Bayes factor can be challenging depending on the complexity of the mode ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Dynamic Causal Modelling
Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a framework for specifying models, fitting them to data and comparing their evidence using Bayesian model comparison. It uses nonlinear state-space models in continuous time, specified using stochastic or ordinary differential equations. DCM was initially developed for testing hypotheses about neural dynamics. In this setting, differential equations describe the interaction of neural populations, which directly or indirectly give rise to functional neuroimaging data e.g., functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). Parameters in these models quantify the directed influences or effective connectivity among neuronal populations, which are estimated from the data using Bayesian statistical methods. Procedure DCM is typically used to estimate the coupling among brain regions and the changes in coupling due to experimental changes (e.g., time or context). A model of interacting neur ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |