Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings.
Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned.
Project management
In
project management
Project management is the process of supervising the work of a Project team, team to achieve all project goals within the given constraints. This information is usually described in project initiation documentation, project documentation, crea ...
, trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in cost and schedule performance. In this context, it is a project management quality control tool.
Statistics
In
statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
, trend analysis often refers to techniques for extracting an underlying pattern of behavior in a
time series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. ...
which would otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden by
noise
Noise is sound, chiefly unwanted, unintentional, or harmful sound considered unpleasant, loud, or disruptive to mental or hearing faculties. From a physics standpoint, there is no distinction between noise and desired sound, as both are vibrat ...
. If the
trend
A fad, trend, or craze is any form of collective behavior that develops within a culture, a generation, or social group in which a group of people enthusiastically follow an impulse for a short time period.
Fads are objects or behaviors th ...
can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken within a formal
regression analysis, as described in
Trend estimation. If the trends have other shapes than linear, trend testing can be done by non-parametric methods, e.g. Mann-Kendall test, which is a version of
Kendall rank correlation coefficient.
Smoothing can also be used for testing and visualization of nonlinear trends.
Text
Trend analysis can be also used for word usage, how words change in the frequency of use in time (diachronic analysis), in order to find
neologisms
In linguistics, a neologism (; also known as a coinage) is any newly formed word, term, or phrase that has achieved popular or institutional recognition and is becoming accepted into mainstream language. Most definitively, a word can be considered ...
or
archaisms. It relates to
diachronic linguistics, a field of linguistics which examines how languages change over time. Google provides tool
Google Trends to explore how particular terms are trending in internet searches. On the other hand, there are tools which provide diachronic analysis for particular texts which compare word usage in each period of the particular text (based on
timestamped marks), see e.g.
Sketch Engine diachronic analysis (trends).
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See also
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Cool-hunting
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Extrapolation
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Horizon scanning
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Su ...
*
Technology forecasting
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or wikt:technique, techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developmen ...
*
Weather forecasting
Weather forecasting or weather prediction is the application of science and technology forecasting, to predict the conditions of the Earth's atmosphere, atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather info ...
Notes
External links
Trend Analysis in Polls, Topics, Opinions and AnswersMegatrends and connected trends download files
{{Quantitative forecasting methods
Regression with time series structure
Research methods
Project management techniques
Futures techniques