In
probability theory
Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expre ...
, the stable count distribution is the
conjugate prior
In Bayesian probability theory, if, given a likelihood function
p(x \mid \theta), the posterior distribution p(\theta \mid x) is in the same probability distribution family as the prior probability distribution p(\theta), the prior and posteri ...
of a
one-sided stable distribution. This distribution was discovered by Stephen Lihn (Chinese: 藺鴻圖) in his 2017 study of daily distributions of the
S&P 500
The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and in ...
and the
VIX
VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
.
[ The stable distribution family is also sometimes referred to as the Lévy alpha-stable distribution, after Paul Lévy, the first mathematician to have studied it.
Of the three parameters defining the distribution, the stability parameter is most important. Stable count distributions have . The known analytical case of is related to the ]VIX
VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
distribution (See Section 7 of ). All the moments are finite for the distribution.
Definition
Its standard distribution is defined as
:
where and
Its location-scale family is defined as
:
where , , and
In the above expression, is a one-sided stable distribution, which is defined as following.
Let be a standard stable random variable
A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a Mathematics, mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on randomness, random events. The term 'random variable' in its mathema ...
whose distribution is characterized by , then we have
:
where .
Consider the Lévy sum where , then has the density where . Set , we arrive at without the normalization constant.
The reason why this distribution is called "stable count" can be understood by the relation . Note that is the "count" of the Lévy sum. Given a fixed , this distribution gives the probability of taking steps to travel one unit of distance.
Integral form
Based on the integral form of and , we have the integral form of as
:
Based on the double-sine integral above, it leads to the integral form of the standard CDF:
:
where is the sine integral function.
The Wright representation
In " Series representation", it is shown that the stable count distribution is a special case of the Wright function (See Section 4 of ):
:
This leads to the Hankel integral: (based on (1.4.3) of )
:where Ha represents a Hankel contour.
Alternative derivation – lambda decomposition
Another approach to derive the stable count distribution is to use the Laplace transform of the one-sided stable distribution, (Section 2.4 of [)
: where .
Let , and one can decompose the integral on the left hand side as a ]product distribution
A product distribution is a probability distribution constructed as the distribution of the product of random variables having two other known distributions. Given two statistically independent random variables ''X'' and ''Y'', the distribution of ...
of a standard Laplace distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Laplace distribution is a continuous probability distribution named after Pierre-Simon Laplace. It is also sometimes called the double exponential distribution, because it can be thought of as two exponen ...
and a standard stable count distribution,
:
where .
This is called the "lambda decomposition" (See Section 4 of [) since the LHS was named as "symmetric lambda distribution" in Lihn's former works. However, it has several more popular names such as "]exponential power distribution
The generalized normal distribution (GND) or generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) is either of two families of parametric statistics, parametric continuous probability distributions on the real number, real line. Both families add a shape para ...
", or the "generalized error/normal distribution", often referred to when . It is also the Weibull survival function in Reliability engineering
Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability is defined as the probability that a product, system, or service will perform its intended functi ...
.
Lambda decomposition is the foundation of Lihn's framework of asset returns under the stable law. The LHS is the distribution of asset returns. On the RHS, the Laplace distribution represents the lepkurtotic noise, and the stable count distribution represents the volatility.
Stable Vol distribution
A variant of the stable count distribution is called the stable vol distribution .
The Laplace transform of can be re-expressed in terms of a Gaussian mixture of (See Section 6 of [).
It is derived from the lambda decomposition above by a change of variable such that
:
where
:
This transformation is named generalized Gauss transmutation since it generalizes th]
Gauss-Laplace transmutation
which is equivalent to .
Connection to Gamma and Poisson distributions
The shape parameter of the Gamma and Poisson Distributions is connected to the inverse of Lévy's stability parameter .
The upper regularized gamma function
In mathematics, the upper and lower incomplete gamma functions are types of special functions which arise as solutions to various mathematical problems such as certain integrals.
Their respective names stem from their integral definitions, whic ...
can be expressed as an incomplete integral of as
By replacing with the decomposition and carrying out one integral, we have:
Reverting back to , we arrive at the decomposition of in terms of a stable count:
Differentiate by , we arrive at the desired formula:
:
This is in the form of a product distribution
A product distribution is a probability distribution constructed as the distribution of the product of random variables having two other known distributions. Given two statistically independent random variables ''X'' and ''Y'', the distribution of ...
. The term Weibull distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
of shape . Hence, this formula connects the stable count distribution to the probability density function of a Gamma distribution (here
Here may refer to:
Music
* ''Here'' (Adrian Belew album), 1994
* ''Here'' (Alicia Keys album), 2016
* ''Here'' (Cal Tjader album), 1979
* ''Here'' (Edward Sharpe album), 2012
* ''Here'' (Idina Menzel album), 2004
* ''Here'' (Merzbow album), ...
) and the probability mass function of a Poisson distribution (here
Here may refer to:
Music
* ''Here'' (Adrian Belew album), 1994
* ''Here'' (Alicia Keys album), 2016
* ''Here'' (Cal Tjader album), 1979
* ''Here'' (Edward Sharpe album), 2012
* ''Here'' (Idina Menzel album), 2004
* ''Here'' (Merzbow album), ...
, ). And the shape parameter can be regarded as inverse of Lévy's stability parameter .
Connection to Chi and Chi-squared distributions
The degrees of freedom in the chi and chi-squared Distributions can be shown to be related to . Hence, the original idea of viewing as an integer index in the lambda decomposition is justified here.
For the chi-squared distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the \chi^2-distribution with k Degrees of freedom (statistics), degrees of freedom is the distribution of a sum of the squares of k Independence (probability theory), independent standard normal random vari ...
, it is straightforward since the chi-squared distribution is a special case of the gamma distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
, in that . And from above, the shape parameter of a gamma distribution is .
For the chi distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the chi distribution is a continuous probability distribution over the non-negative real line. It is the distribution of the positive square root of a sum of squared independent Gaussian random variables. E ...
, we begin with its CDF , where . Differentiate by , we have its density function as
:
This formula connects with through the term.
Connection to generalized Gamma distributions
The generalized gamma distribution
The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution with two shape parameters (and a scale parameter). It is a generalization of the gamma distribution which has one shape parameter (and a scale parameter). Since many distr ...
is a probability distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is a Function (mathematics), function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of possible events for an Experiment (probability theory), experiment. It is a mathematical descri ...
with two shape parameter
In probability theory and statistics, a shape parameter (also known as form parameter) is a kind of numerical parameter of a parametric family of probability distributionsEveritt B.S. (2002) Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics. 2nd Edition. CUP.
th ...
s, and is the super set of the gamma distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
, the Weibull distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
, the exponential distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the distance between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuousl ...
, and the half-normal distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the half-normal distribution is a special case of the folded normal distribution.
Let X follow an ordinary normal distribution, N(0,\sigma^2). Then, Y=, X, follows a half-normal distribution. Thus, the ha ...
. Its CDF is in the form of .
(Note: We use instead of for consistency and to avoid confusion with .)
Differentiate by , we arrive at the product-distribution formula:
:
where denotes the PDF of a generalized gamma distribution,
whose CDF is parametrized as .
This formula connects with through the term. The term is an exponent representing the second degree of freedom in the shape-parameter space.
This formula is singular for the case of a Weibull distribution since must be one for ;
but for to exist, must be greater than one.
When , is a delta function and this formula becomes trivial.
The Weibull distribution has its distinct way of decomposition as following.
Connection to Weibull distribution
For a Weibull distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
whose CDF is , its shape parameter is equivalent to Lévy's stability parameter .
A similar expression of product distribution can be derived, such that the kernel is either
a one-sided Laplace distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Laplace distribution is a continuous probability distribution named after Pierre-Simon Laplace. It is also sometimes called the double exponential distribution, because it can be thought of as two exponen ...
or a Rayleigh distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Rayleigh distribution is a continuous probability distribution for nonnegative-valued random variables. Up to rescaling, it coincides with the chi distribution with two degrees of freedom.
The distributi ...
.
It begins with the complementary CDF, which comes from Lambda decomposition:
:
By taking derivative on , we obtain the product distribution form of a Weibull distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
PDF as
:
where and .
it is clear that from the and terms.
Asymptotic properties
For stable distribution family, it is essential to understand its asymptotic behaviors. From,[ for small ,
:
This confirms .
For large ,
:
This shows that the tail of decays exponentially at infinity. The larger is, the stronger the decay.
This tail is in the form of a ]generalized gamma distribution
The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution with two shape parameters (and a scale parameter). It is a generalization of the gamma distribution which has one shape parameter (and a scale parameter). Since many distr ...
, where in its parametrization,
, , and .
Hence, it is equivalent to ,
whose CDF is parametrized as .
Moments
The ''n''-th moment of is the -th moment of . All positive moments are finite. This in a way solves the thorny issue of diverging moments in the stable distribution. (See Section 2.4 of [)
:
The analytic solution of moments is obtained through the Wright function:
:
where (See (1.4.28) of ][)
Thus, the mean of is
:
The variance is
:
And the lowest moment is by applying
when .
The ''n''-th moment of the stable vol distribution is
:
]
Moment generating function
The MGF can be expressed by a Fox-Wright function or Fox H-function:
:
As a verification, at , (see below) can be Taylor-expanded to via .
Known analytical case – quartic stable count
When , is the Lévy distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Lévy distribution, named after Paul Lévy, is a continuous probability distribution for a non-negative random variable. In spectroscopy, this distribution, with frequency as the dependent variable, is k ...
which is an inverse gamma distribution. Thus is a shifted gamma distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
of shape 3/2 and scale ,
:
where , .
Its mean is and its standard deviation is . This called "quartic stable count distribution". The word "quartic" comes from Lihn's former work on the lambda distribution where . At this setting, many facets of stable count distribution have elegant analytical solutions.
The ''p''-th central moments are . The CDF is where is the lower incomplete gamma function
In mathematics, the upper and lower incomplete gamma functions are types of special functions which arise as solutions to various mathematical problems such as certain integrals.
Their respective names stem from their integral definitions, whic ...
. And the MGF is . (See Section 3 of [)
]
Special case when α → 1
As becomes larger, the peak of the distribution becomes sharper. A special case of is when . The distribution behaves like a Dirac delta function
In mathematical analysis, the Dirac delta function (or distribution), also known as the unit impulse, is a generalized function on the real numbers, whose value is zero everywhere except at zero, and whose integral over the entire real line ...
,
:
where , and .
Likewise, the stable vol distribution at also becomes a delta function,
:
Series representation
Based on the series representation of the one-sided stable distribution, we have:
:.
This series representation has two interpretations:
* First, a similar form of this series was first given in Pollard (1948), and in " Relation to Mittag-Leffler function", it is stated that where is the Laplace transform of the Mittag-Leffler function .
* Secondly, this series is a special case of the Wright function : (See Section 1.4 of [)
:
The proof is obtained by the reflection formula of the Gamma function: , which admits the mapping: in . The Wright representation leads to analytical solutions for many statistical properties of the stable count distribution and establish another connection to fractional calculus.
]
Applications
Stable count distribution can represent the daily distribution of VIX quite well. It is hypothesized that VIX
VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
is distributed like with and (See Section 7 of [). Thus the stable count distribution is the first-order marginal distribution of a volatility process. In this context, is called the "floor volatility". In practice, VIX rarely drops below 10. This phenomenon justifies the concept of "floor volatility". A sample of the fit is shown below:
One form of mean-reverting SDE for is based on a modified Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model. Assume is the volatility process, we have
:
where is the so-called "vol of vol". The "vol of vol" for VIX is called ]VVIX
VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
, which has a typical value of about 85.
This SDE is analytically tractable and satisfie
the Feller condition
thus would never go below . But there is a subtle issue between theory and practice. There has been about 0.6% probability that VIX did go below . This is called "spillover". To address it, one can replace the square root term with , where provides a small leakage channel for to drift slightly below .
Extremely low VIX reading indicates a very complacent market. Thus the spillover condition, , carries a certain significance - When it occurs, it usually indicates the calm before the storm in the business cycle.
Generation of Random Variables
As the modified CIR model above shows, it takes another input parameter to simulate sequences of stable count random variables. The mean-reverting stochastic process takes the form of
:
which should produce that distributes like as .
And is a user-specified preference for how fast should change.
By solving the Fokker-Planck equation, the solution for in terms of is
:
:
It can also be written as a ratio of two Wright functions,
:
When , this process is reduced to the modified CIR model where
.
This is the only special case where is a straight line.
Likewise, if the asymptotic distribution is as ,
the solution, denoted as below, is
:
When , it is reduced to a quadratic polynomial:
.
Stable Extension of the CIR Model
By relaxing the rigid relation between the term and the term above,
the stable extension of the CIR model can be constructed as
:
which is reduced to the original CIR model
at :
.
Hence, the parameter controls the mean-reverting speed,
the location parameter sets where the mean is, is the volatility parameter,
and is the shape parameter for the stable law.
By solving the Fokker-Planck equation, the solution for the PDF at is
:
To make sense of this solution, consider asymptotically for large , 's tail is still in the form of a generalized gamma distribution
The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution with two shape parameters (and a scale parameter). It is a generalization of the gamma distribution which has one shape parameter (and a scale parameter). Since many distr ...
, where in its parametrization,
,
, and
.
It is reduced to the original CIR model
at where
with and
; hence
.
Fractional calculus
Relation to Mittag-Leffler function
From Section 4 of, the inverse Laplace transform
In mathematics, the Laplace transform, named after Pierre-Simon Laplace (), is an integral transform that converts a Function (mathematics), function of a Real number, real Variable (mathematics), variable (usually t, in the ''time domain'') to a f ...
of the Mittag-Leffler function
In mathematics, the Mittag-Leffler functions are a family of special functions. They are complex-valued functions of a complex argument ''z'', and moreover depend on one or two complex parameters.
The one-parameter Mittag-Leffler function, int ...
is ()
:
On the other hand, the following relation was given by Pollard (1948),[
:
Thus by , we obtain the relation between stable count distribution and Mittag-Leffter function:
:
This relation can be verified quickly at where and . This leads to the well-known quartic stable count result:
:
]
Relation to time-fractional Fokker-Planck equation
The ordinary Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) is , where is the Fokker-Planck space operator, is the diffusion coefficient
Diffusivity, mass diffusivity or diffusion coefficient is usually written as the proportionality constant between the molar flux due to molecular diffusion and the negative value of the gradient in the concentration of the species. More accurate ...
, is the temperature, and is the external field. The time-fractional FPE introduces the additional fractional derivative
Fractional calculus is a branch of mathematical analysis that studies the several different possibilities of defining real number powers or complex number powers of the differentiation operator D
D f(x) = \frac f(x)\,,
and of the integration ...
such that , where is the fractional diffusion coefficient.
Let in , we obtain the kernel for the time-fractional FPE (Eq (16) of )
:
from which the fractional density can be calculated from an ordinary solution via
:
Since via change of variable , the above integral becomes the product distribution with , similar to the " lambda decomposition" concept, and scaling of time :
:
Here is interpreted as the distribution of impurity, expressed in the unit of , that causes the anomalous diffusion
Anomalous diffusion is a diffusion process with a non-linear relationship between the mean squared displacement (MSD), \langle r^(\tau )\rangle , and time. This behavior is in stark contrast to Brownian motion, the typical diffusion process descr ...
.
See also
* Lévy flight
Levy, Lévy or Levies may refer to:
People
* Levy (surname), people with the surname Levy or Lévy
* Levy Adcock (born 1988), American football player
* Levy Barent Cohen (1747–1808), Dutch-born British financier and community worker
* Lev ...
* Lévy process
In probability theory, a Lévy process, named after the French mathematician Paul Lévy, is a stochastic process with independent, stationary increments: it represents the motion of a point whose successive displacements are random, in which disp ...
* Fractional calculus
Fractional calculus is a branch of mathematical analysis that studies the several different possibilities of defining real number powers or complex number powers of the differentiation operator D
D f(x) = \frac f(x)\,,
and of the integration ...
* Anomalous diffusion
Anomalous diffusion is a diffusion process with a non-linear relationship between the mean squared displacement (MSD), \langle r^(\tau )\rangle , and time. This behavior is in stark contrast to Brownian motion, the typical diffusion process descr ...
* Incomplete gamma function
In mathematics, the upper and lower incomplete gamma functions are types of special functions which arise as solutions to various mathematical problems such as certain integrals.
Their respective names stem from their integral definitions, whic ...
and Gamma distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
* Poisson distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution () is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time if these events occur with a known const ...
References
External links
* R Packag
'stabledist'
by Diethelm Wuertz, Martin Maechler and Rmetrics core team members. Computes stable density, probability, quantiles, and random numbers. Updated Sept. 12, 2016.
{{ProbDistributions, continuous-infinite
Continuous distributions
Probability distributions with non-finite variance
Power laws
Stability (probability)