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In
probability theory Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expre ...
, the stable count distribution is the
conjugate prior In Bayesian probability theory, if, given a likelihood function p(x \mid \theta), the posterior distribution p(\theta \mid x) is in the same probability distribution family as the prior probability distribution p(\theta), the prior and posteri ...
of a one-sided stable distribution. This distribution was discovered by Stephen Lihn (Chinese: 藺鴻圖) in his 2017 study of daily distributions of the
S&P 500 The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and in ...
and the
VIX VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
. The stable distribution family is also sometimes referred to as the Lévy alpha-stable distribution, after Paul Lévy, the first mathematician to have studied it. Of the three parameters defining the distribution, the stability parameter \alpha is most important. Stable count distributions have 0<\alpha<1. The known analytical case of \alpha=1/2 is related to the
VIX VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
distribution (See Section 7 of ). All the moments are finite for the distribution.


Definition

Its standard distribution is defined as : \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu)=\frac \frac L_\alpha\left(\frac\right), where \nu>0 and 0<\alpha<1. Its location-scale family is defined as : \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu;\nu_0,\theta)= \frac \frac L_\alpha\left(\frac\right), where \nu>\nu_0, \theta>0, and 0<\alpha<1. In the above expression, L_\alpha(x) is a one-sided stable distribution, which is defined as following. Let X be a standard stable
random variable A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a Mathematics, mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on randomness, random events. The term 'random variable' in its mathema ...
whose distribution is characterized by f(x;\alpha,\beta,c,\mu), then we have : L_\alpha(x)=f(x;\alpha,1,\cos\left(\frac\right)^,0), where 0<\alpha<1. Consider the Lévy sum Y = \sum_^N X_i where X_i\sim L_\alpha(x), then Y has the density \frac L_\alpha\left(\frac\right) where \nu=N^. Set x=1, we arrive at \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) without the normalization constant. The reason why this distribution is called "stable count" can be understood by the relation \nu=N^. Note that N is the "count" of the Lévy sum. Given a fixed \alpha, this distribution gives the probability of taking N steps to travel one unit of distance.


Integral form

Based on the integral form of L_\alpha(x) and q=\exp(-i\alpha\pi/2) , we have the integral form of \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) as : \begin \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) & = \frac \int_0^\infty e^ \frac \sin(\frac)\sin(-\text(q)\,t^\alpha) \,dt, \text \\ & = \frac \int_0^\infty e^ \frac \cos(\frac)\cos(\text(q)\,t^\alpha) \,dt . \\ \end Based on the double-sine integral above, it leads to the integral form of the standard CDF: : \begin \Phi_\alpha(x) & = \frac \int_0^x \int_0^\infty e^ \frac \sin(\frac)\sin(-\text(q)\,t^\alpha) \,dt\,d\nu \\ & = 1- \frac \int_0^\infty e^ \sin(-\text(q)\,t^\alpha) \,\text(\frac) \,dt, \\ \end where \text(x)=\int_0^x \frac\,dx is the sine integral function.


The Wright representation

In " Series representation", it is shown that the stable count distribution is a special case of the Wright function (See Section 4 of ): :\mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) = \frac W_(-\nu^\alpha) , \, \text \,\, W_(z) = \sum_^\infty \frac. This leads to the Hankel integral: (based on (1.4.3) of ) :\mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) = \frac \frac \int_ e^ \, dt, \, where Ha represents a Hankel contour.


Alternative derivation – lambda decomposition

Another approach to derive the stable count distribution is to use the Laplace transform of the one-sided stable distribution, (Section 2.4 of ) : \int_0^\infty e^ L_\alpha(x) \, dx = e^,where 0<\alpha<1. Let x=1/\nu, and one can decompose the integral on the left hand side as a
product distribution A product distribution is a probability distribution constructed as the distribution of the product of random variables having two other known distributions. Given two statistically independent random variables ''X'' and ''Y'', the distribution of ...
of a standard
Laplace distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Laplace distribution is a continuous probability distribution named after Pierre-Simon Laplace. It is also sometimes called the double exponential distribution, because it can be thought of as two exponen ...
and a standard stable count distribution, :\frac \frac e^ = \int_0^\infty \frac \left( \frac e^ \right) \left(\frac \frac L_\alpha \left( \frac \right) \right) \, d\nu = \int_0^\infty \frac \left( \frac e^ \right) \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) \, d\nu , where z \in \mathsf. This is called the "lambda decomposition" (See Section 4 of ) since the LHS was named as "symmetric lambda distribution" in Lihn's former works. However, it has several more popular names such as "
exponential power distribution The generalized normal distribution (GND) or generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) is either of two families of parametric statistics, parametric continuous probability distributions on the real number, real line. Both families add a shape para ...
", or the "generalized error/normal distribution", often referred to when \alpha>1. It is also the Weibull survival function in
Reliability engineering Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability is defined as the probability that a product, system, or service will perform its intended functi ...
. Lambda decomposition is the foundation of Lihn's framework of asset returns under the stable law. The LHS is the distribution of asset returns. On the RHS, the Laplace distribution represents the lepkurtotic noise, and the stable count distribution represents the volatility.


Stable Vol distribution

A variant of the stable count distribution is called the stable vol distribution V_(s). The Laplace transform of e^ can be re-expressed in terms of a Gaussian mixture of V_(s) (See Section 6 of ). It is derived from the lambda decomposition above by a change of variable such that :\frac \frac e^ = \frac \frac e^ = \int_0^\infty \frac \left( \frac e^ \right) V_(s) \, ds , where : \begin V_(s) &= \displaystyle \frac \, \mathfrak_(2 s^2), \,\, 0 < \alpha \leq 2 \\ &= \displaystyle \frac \, W_ \left( -^\alpha \right) \end This transformation is named generalized Gauss transmutation since it generalizes th
Gauss-Laplace transmutation
which is equivalent to V_(s) = 2 \sqrt \, \mathfrak_(2 s^2) = s \, e^.


Connection to Gamma and Poisson distributions

The shape parameter of the Gamma and Poisson Distributions is connected to the inverse of Lévy's stability parameter 1/\alpha. The upper
regularized gamma function In mathematics, the upper and lower incomplete gamma functions are types of special functions which arise as solutions to various mathematical problems such as certain integrals. Their respective names stem from their integral definitions, whic ...
Q(s,x) can be expressed as an incomplete integral of e^ as Q(\frac, z^\alpha) = \frac \displaystyle\int_z^\infty e^ \, du. By replacing e^ with the decomposition and carrying out one integral, we have: Q(\frac, z^\alpha) = \displaystyle\int_z^\infty \, du \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \left( e^ \right) \, \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) \, d\nu = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \left( e^ \right) \, \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) \, d\nu. Reverting (\frac, z^\alpha) back to (s,x), we arrive at the decomposition of Q(s,x) in terms of a stable count: Q(s,x) = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty e^ \, \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) \, d\nu. \,\, (s > 1) Differentiate Q(s,x) by x, we arrive at the desired formula: : \begin \frac x^ e^ & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \left s\, x^ e^ \right \, \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) \, d\nu \\ & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \left s\, ^ e^ \right \, \left \mathfrak_\left(t^s\right) \, s \, t^ \right\, dt \,\,\, (\nu = t^s) \\ & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, \text\left( \frac; s\right) \, \left \mathfrak_\left(t^s\right) \, s \, t^ \right\, dt \end This is in the form of a
product distribution A product distribution is a probability distribution constructed as the distribution of the product of random variables having two other known distributions. Given two statistically independent random variables ''X'' and ''Y'', the distribution of ...
. The term \left s\, ^ e^ \right/math> in the RHS is associated with a
Weibull distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
of shape s. Hence, this formula connects the stable count distribution to the probability density function of a Gamma distribution (
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) and the probability mass function of a Poisson distribution (
here Here may refer to: Music * ''Here'' (Adrian Belew album), 1994 * ''Here'' (Alicia Keys album), 2016 * ''Here'' (Cal Tjader album), 1979 * ''Here'' (Edward Sharpe album), 2012 * ''Here'' (Idina Menzel album), 2004 * ''Here'' (Merzbow album), ...
, s \rightarrow s+1). And the shape parameter s can be regarded as inverse of Lévy's stability parameter 1/\alpha.


Connection to Chi and Chi-squared distributions

The degrees of freedom k in the chi and chi-squared Distributions can be shown to be related to 2/\alpha. Hence, the original idea of viewing \lambda = 2/\alpha as an integer index in the lambda decomposition is justified here. For the
chi-squared distribution In probability theory and statistics, the \chi^2-distribution with k Degrees of freedom (statistics), degrees of freedom is the distribution of a sum of the squares of k Independence (probability theory), independent standard normal random vari ...
, it is straightforward since the chi-squared distribution is a special case of the
gamma distribution In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
, in that \chi^2_k \sim \text \left(\frac, \theta=2 \right). And from above, the shape parameter of a gamma distribution is 1/\alpha. For the
chi distribution In probability theory and statistics, the chi distribution is a continuous probability distribution over the non-negative real line. It is the distribution of the positive square root of a sum of squared independent Gaussian random variables. E ...
, we begin with its CDF P \left( \frac2, \frac2 \right), where P(s,x) = 1 - Q(s,x). Differentiate P \left( \frac2, \frac2 \right) by x , we have its density function as : \begin \chi_k(x) = \frac & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \left 2^ \,k \, x^ e^ \right \, \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) \, d\nu \\ & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \left k\, ^ e^ \right \, \left \mathfrak_\left( 2^ t^k \right) \, 2^ \, k \, t^ \right\, dt, \,\,\, (\nu = 2^ t^k) \\ & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, \text\left( \frac; k\right) \, \left \mathfrak_\left( 2^ t^k \right) \, 2^ \, k \, t^ \right\, dt \end This formula connects 2/k with \alpha through the \mathfrak_\left( \cdot \right) term.


Connection to generalized Gamma distributions

The
generalized gamma distribution The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution with two shape parameters (and a scale parameter). It is a generalization of the gamma distribution which has one shape parameter (and a scale parameter). Since many distr ...
is a
probability distribution In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is a Function (mathematics), function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of possible events for an Experiment (probability theory), experiment. It is a mathematical descri ...
with two
shape parameter In probability theory and statistics, a shape parameter (also known as form parameter) is a kind of numerical parameter of a parametric family of probability distributionsEveritt B.S. (2002) Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics. 2nd Edition. CUP. th ...
s, and is the super set of the
gamma distribution In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
, the
Weibull distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
, the
exponential distribution In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the distance between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuousl ...
, and the
half-normal distribution In probability theory and statistics, the half-normal distribution is a special case of the folded normal distribution. Let X follow an ordinary normal distribution, N(0,\sigma^2). Then, Y=, X, follows a half-normal distribution. Thus, the ha ...
. Its CDF is in the form of P(s, x^c) = 1 - Q(s, x^c). (Note: We use s instead of a for consistency and to avoid confusion with \alpha.) Differentiate P(s,x^c) by x, we arrive at the product-distribution formula: : \begin \text(x; s, c) & = \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, \text\left( \frac; sc\right) \, \left \mathfrak_\left(t^\right) \, sc \, t^ \right\, dt \,\, (s \geq 1) \end where \text(x; s, c) denotes the PDF of a generalized gamma distribution, whose CDF is parametrized as P(s,x^c). This formula connects 1/s with \alpha through the \mathfrak_\left( \cdot \right) term. The sc term is an exponent representing the second degree of freedom in the shape-parameter space. This formula is singular for the case of a Weibull distribution since s must be one for \text(x; 1, c) = \text(x; c); but for \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) to exist, s must be greater than one. When s\rightarrow 1, \mathfrak_\left(\nu\right) is a delta function and this formula becomes trivial. The Weibull distribution has its distinct way of decomposition as following.


Connection to Weibull distribution

For a
Weibull distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
whose CDF is F(x;k,\lambda) = 1 - e^ \,\, (x>0), its shape parameter k is equivalent to Lévy's stability parameter \alpha . A similar expression of product distribution can be derived, such that the kernel is either a one-sided
Laplace distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Laplace distribution is a continuous probability distribution named after Pierre-Simon Laplace. It is also sometimes called the double exponential distribution, because it can be thought of as two exponen ...
F(x;1,\sigma) or a
Rayleigh distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Rayleigh distribution is a continuous probability distribution for nonnegative-valued random variables. Up to rescaling, it coincides with the chi distribution with two degrees of freedom. The distributi ...
F(x;2,\sqrt \sigma). It begins with the complementary CDF, which comes from Lambda decomposition: : 1-F(x;k,1) = \begin \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, (1-F(x;1,\nu)) \left \Gamma \left( \frac+1 \right) \mathfrak_k(\nu) \right\, d\nu , & 1 \geq k > 0; \text \\ \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, (1-F(x;2,\sqrt s)) \left \sqrt \, \Gamma \left( \frac+1 \right) V_k(s) \right\, ds , & 2 \geq k > 0. \end By taking derivative on x, we obtain the product distribution form of a
Weibull distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum on ...
PDF \text(x;k) as : \text(x;k) = \begin \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, \text(\frac) \left \Gamma \left( \frac+1 \right) \frac \mathfrak_k(\nu) \right\, d\nu , & 1 \geq k > 0; \text \\ \displaystyle\int_0^\infty \frac \, \text(\frac) \left \sqrt \, \Gamma \left( \frac+1 \right) \frac V_k(s) \right\, ds , & 2 \geq k > 0. \end where \text(x) = e^ and \text(x) = x e^ . it is clear that k = \alpha from the \mathfrak_k(\nu) and V_k(s) terms.


Asymptotic properties

For stable distribution family, it is essential to understand its asymptotic behaviors. From, for small \nu, : \begin \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) & \rightarrow B(\alpha) \,\nu^, \text \nu \rightarrow 0 \text B(\alpha)>0. \\ \end This confirms \mathfrak_\alpha(0)=0 . For large \nu, : \begin \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) & \rightarrow \nu^ e^, \text \nu \rightarrow \infty \text A(\alpha)>0. \\ \end This shows that the tail of \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) decays exponentially at infinity. The larger \alpha is, the stronger the decay. This tail is in the form of a
generalized gamma distribution The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution with two shape parameters (and a scale parameter). It is a generalization of the gamma distribution which has one shape parameter (and a scale parameter). Since many distr ...
, where in its f(x; a, d, p) parametrization, p = \frac, a = A(\alpha)^, and d = 1 + \frac. Hence, it is equivalent to \text(\frac; s = \frac -\frac, c = p), whose CDF is parametrized as P\left( s,\left( \frac \right)^c \right).


Moments

The ''n''-th moment m_n of \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) is the -(n+1)-th moment of L_\alpha(x). All positive moments are finite. This in a way solves the thorny issue of diverging moments in the stable distribution. (See Section 2.4 of ) : \begin m_n & = \int_0^\infty \nu^n \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) d\nu = \frac \int_0^\infty \frac L_\alpha(t) \, dt. \\ \end The analytic solution of moments is obtained through the Wright function: : \begin m_n & = \frac \int_0^\infty \nu^ W_(-\nu^\alpha) \, d\nu \\ & = \frac, \, n \geq -1. \\ \end where \int_0^\infty r^\delta W_(-r)\,dr = \frac , \, \delta>-1,0<\nu<1,\mu>0. (See (1.4.28) of ) Thus, the mean of \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) is :m_1=\frac The variance is :\sigma^2= \frac - \left \frac \right2 And the lowest moment is m_ = \frac by applying \Gamma(\frac) \to y\Gamma(x) when x \to 0 . The ''n''-th moment of the stable vol distribution V_\alpha(s) is : \begin m_n(V_\alpha) & = 2^ \sqrt \, \frac, \, n \geq -1. \end


Moment generating function

The MGF can be expressed by a Fox-Wright function or Fox H-function: :\begin M_\alpha(s) & = \sum_^\infty \frac = \frac \sum_^\infty \frac \\ & = \frac _1\Psi_1\left \frac,\frac);(1,1); s\right ,\,\,\text \\ & = \frac H^_\left \begin (1-\frac, \frac) \\ (0,1);(0,1) \end \right\\ \end As a verification, at \alpha=\frac , M_(s) = (1-4s)^ (see below) can be Taylor-expanded to _1\Psi_1\left 2,2);(1,1); s\right =\sum_^\infty \frac via \Gamma(\frac-n) = \sqrt \frac .


Known analytical case – quartic stable count

When \alpha=\frac, L_(x) is the
Lévy distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Lévy distribution, named after Paul Lévy, is a continuous probability distribution for a non-negative random variable. In spectroscopy, this distribution, with frequency as the dependent variable, is k ...
which is an inverse gamma distribution. Thus \mathfrak_(\nu;\nu_0,\theta) is a shifted
gamma distribution In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
of shape 3/2 and scale 4\theta , : \mathfrak_(\nu;\nu_0,\theta) = \frac (\nu-\nu_0)^ e^, where \nu>\nu_0, \theta>0. Its mean is \nu_0+6\theta and its standard deviation is \sqrt\theta . This called "quartic stable count distribution". The word "quartic" comes from Lihn's former work on the lambda distribution where \lambda=2/\alpha=4. At this setting, many facets of stable count distribution have elegant analytical solutions. The ''p''-th central moments are \frac 4^p\theta^p. The CDF is \frac \gamma\left(\frac, \frac \right) where \gamma(s,x) is the lower
incomplete gamma function In mathematics, the upper and lower incomplete gamma functions are types of special functions which arise as solutions to various mathematical problems such as certain integrals. Their respective names stem from their integral definitions, whic ...
. And the MGF is M_(s) = e^(1-4s\theta)^. (See Section 3 of )


Special case when α → 1

As \alpha becomes larger, the peak of the distribution becomes sharper. A special case of \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) is when \alpha\rightarrow1. The distribution behaves like a
Dirac delta function In mathematical analysis, the Dirac delta function (or distribution), also known as the unit impulse, is a generalized function on the real numbers, whose value is zero everywhere except at zero, and whose integral over the entire real line ...
, :\mathfrak_(\nu) \to \delta(\nu-1), where \delta(x) = \begin \infty, & \textx=0 \\ 0, & \textx\neq 0 \end , and \int_^ \delta(x) dx = 1 . Likewise, the stable vol distribution at \alpha \to 2 also becomes a delta function, :V_(s) \to \delta(s- \frac).


Series representation

Based on the series representation of the one-sided stable distribution, we have: :\begin \mathfrak_\alpha(x) & = \frac \sum_^\infty\frac^\Gamma(\alpha n+1) \\ & = \frac \sum_^\infty\frac^\Gamma(\alpha n+1) \\ \end . This series representation has two interpretations: * First, a similar form of this series was first given in Pollard (1948), and in " Relation to Mittag-Leffler function", it is stated that \mathfrak_\alpha(x) = \frac H_\alpha(x^\alpha), where H_\alpha(k) is the Laplace transform of the Mittag-Leffler function E_\alpha(-x) . * Secondly, this series is a special case of the Wright function W_(z) : (See Section 1.4 of ) :\begin \mathfrak_\alpha(x) & = \frac \sum_^\infty\frac\, \sin((\alpha n+1)\pi)\Gamma(\alpha n+1) \\ & = \frac W_(-x^\alpha), \, \text \,\, W_(z) = \sum_^\infty \frac, \lambda>-1. \\ \end The proof is obtained by the reflection formula of the Gamma function: \sin((\alpha n+1)\pi)\Gamma(\alpha n+1) = \pi/\Gamma(-\alpha n) , which admits the mapping: \lambda=-\alpha,\mu=0,z=-x^\alpha in W_(z) . The Wright representation leads to analytical solutions for many statistical properties of the stable count distribution and establish another connection to fractional calculus.


Applications

Stable count distribution can represent the daily distribution of VIX quite well. It is hypothesized that
VIX VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
is distributed like \mathfrak_(\nu;\nu_0,\theta) with \nu_0=10.4 and \theta=1.6 (See Section 7 of ). Thus the stable count distribution is the first-order marginal distribution of a volatility process. In this context, \nu_0 is called the "floor volatility". In practice, VIX rarely drops below 10. This phenomenon justifies the concept of "floor volatility". A sample of the fit is shown below: One form of mean-reverting SDE for \mathfrak_(\nu;\nu_0,\theta) is based on a modified Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model. Assume S_t is the volatility process, we have : dS_t = \frac (6\theta+\nu_0-S_t) \, dt + \sigma \sqrt \, dW, where \sigma is the so-called "vol of vol". The "vol of vol" for VIX is called
VVIX VIX is the ticker symbol and popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a ...
, which has a typical value of about 85. This SDE is analytically tractable and satisfie
the Feller condition
thus S_t would never go below \nu_0 . But there is a subtle issue between theory and practice. There has been about 0.6% probability that VIX did go below \nu_0 . This is called "spillover". To address it, one can replace the square root term with \sqrt, where \delta\nu_0\approx 0.01 \, \nu_0 provides a small leakage channel for S_t to drift slightly below \nu_0 . Extremely low VIX reading indicates a very complacent market. Thus the spillover condition, S_t<\nu_0, carries a certain significance - When it occurs, it usually indicates the calm before the storm in the business cycle.


Generation of Random Variables

As the modified CIR model above shows, it takes another input parameter \sigma to simulate sequences of stable count random variables. The mean-reverting stochastic process takes the form of : dS_t = \sigma^2 \mu_\left( \frac \right) \, dt + \sigma \sqrt \, dW, which should produce \ that distributes like \mathfrak_(\nu;\theta) as t \rightarrow \infty. And \sigma is a user-specified preference for how fast S_t should change. By solving the Fokker-Planck equation, the solution for \mu_(x) in terms of \mathfrak_(x) is : \begin \mu_\alpha(x) & = & \displaystyle \frac \frac \\ & = & \displaystyle \frac \left x \left( \log \mathfrak_(x) \right) +1 \right\end : It can also be written as a ratio of two Wright functions, : \begin \mu_\alpha(x) & = & \displaystyle -\frac \frac \\ & = & \displaystyle -\frac \frac \end When \alpha = 1/2, this process is reduced to the modified CIR model where \mu_(x) = \frac (6-x). This is the only special case where \mu_\alpha(x) is a straight line. Likewise, if the asymptotic distribution is V_(s) as t \rightarrow \infty, the \mu_\alpha(x) solution, denoted as \mu(x; V_) below, is : \begin \mu(x; V_) & = & \displaystyle - \frac -\frac \end When \alpha = 1, it is reduced to a quadratic polynomial: \mu(x;V_1) = 1 - \frac.


Stable Extension of the CIR Model

By relaxing the rigid relation between the \sigma^2 term and the \sigma term above, the stable extension of the CIR model can be constructed as : dr_t = a \, \left \frac \, \mu_\left( \frac r_t \right) \right\, dt + \sigma \sqrt \, dW, which is reduced to the original CIR model at \alpha = 1/2: dr_t = a \left( b - r_t \right) dt + \sigma \sqrt \, dW. Hence, the parameter a controls the mean-reverting speed, the location parameter b sets where the mean is, \sigma is the volatility parameter, and \alpha is the shape parameter for the stable law. By solving the Fokker-Planck equation, the solution for the PDF p(x) at r_\infty is : \begin p(x) & \propto & \displaystyle \exp \left \int^ \frac \left( 2 D \, \mu_\left( \frac x \right) - 1 \right) \right , \text D = \frac \\ & = & \displaystyle \mathfrak_\left( \frac x \right) ^D \, x^ \end To make sense of this solution, consider asymptotically for large x, p(x)'s tail is still in the form of a
generalized gamma distribution The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution with two shape parameters (and a scale parameter). It is a generalization of the gamma distribution which has one shape parameter (and a scale parameter). Since many distr ...
, where in its f(x; a', d, p) parametrization, p = \frac, a' = \frac (D\,A(\alpha))^, and d = D \left( 1 + \frac \right). It is reduced to the original CIR model at \alpha = 1/2 where p(x) \propto x^e^ with d = \frac and A(\alpha) = \frac ; hence \frac = \frac \left(\frac\right) = \frac .


Fractional calculus


Relation to Mittag-Leffler function

From Section 4 of, the inverse
Laplace transform In mathematics, the Laplace transform, named after Pierre-Simon Laplace (), is an integral transform that converts a Function (mathematics), function of a Real number, real Variable (mathematics), variable (usually t, in the ''time domain'') to a f ...
H_\alpha(k) of the
Mittag-Leffler function In mathematics, the Mittag-Leffler functions are a family of special functions. They are complex-valued functions of a complex argument ''z'', and moreover depend on one or two complex parameters. The one-parameter Mittag-Leffler function, int ...
E_\alpha(-x) is (k>0 ) :H_\alpha(k)= \mathcal^\(k) = \frac \int_0^\infty E_(-t^2) \cos(kt) \,dt. On the other hand, the following relation was given by Pollard (1948), :H_\alpha(k) = \frac \frac L_\alpha \left( \frac \right). Thus by k=\nu^\alpha , we obtain the relation between stable count distribution and Mittag-Leffter function: :\mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) = \frac H_\alpha(\nu^\alpha). This relation can be verified quickly at \alpha=\frac where H_(k)=\frac \,e^ and k^2=\nu . This leads to the well-known quartic stable count result: :\mathfrak_(\nu) = \frac \times \frac \,e^ = \frac \nu^\,e^.


Relation to time-fractional Fokker-Planck equation

The ordinary Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) is \frac = K_1\, \tilde_ P_1(x,t) , where \tilde_ = \frac \frac + \frac is the Fokker-Planck space operator, K_1 is the
diffusion coefficient Diffusivity, mass diffusivity or diffusion coefficient is usually written as the proportionality constant between the molar flux due to molecular diffusion and the negative value of the gradient in the concentration of the species. More accurate ...
, T is the temperature, and F(x) is the external field. The time-fractional FPE introduces the additional
fractional derivative Fractional calculus is a branch of mathematical analysis that studies the several different possibilities of defining real number powers or complex number powers of the differentiation operator D D f(x) = \frac f(x)\,, and of the integration ...
\,_0D_t^ such that \frac = K_\alpha \,_0D_t^ \tilde_ P_\alpha(x,t) , where K_\alpha is the fractional diffusion coefficient. Let k=s/t^\alpha in H_\alpha(k), we obtain the kernel for the time-fractional FPE (Eq (16) of ) :n(s,t) = \frac \frac L_\alpha \left( \frac \right) from which the fractional density P_\alpha(x,t) can be calculated from an ordinary solution P_1(x,t) via :P_\alpha(x,t) = \int_0^\infty n\left( \frac,t\right) \,P_1(x,s) \,ds, \text K=\frac. Since n(\frac,t)\,ds = \Gamma \left(\frac+1\right) \frac\, \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu; \theta=K^) \,d\nu via change of variable \nu t = s^ , the above integral becomes the product distribution with \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu) , similar to the " lambda decomposition" concept, and scaling of time t \Rightarrow (\nu t)^\alpha : :P_\alpha(x,t) = \Gamma \left(\frac+1\right) \int_0^\infty \frac\, \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu; \theta=K^) \,P_1(x,(\nu t)^\alpha) \,d\nu. Here \mathfrak_\alpha(\nu; \theta=K^) is interpreted as the distribution of impurity, expressed in the unit of K^ , that causes the
anomalous diffusion Anomalous diffusion is a diffusion process with a non-linear relationship between the mean squared displacement (MSD), \langle r^(\tau )\rangle , and time. This behavior is in stark contrast to Brownian motion, the typical diffusion process descr ...
.


See also

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Lévy flight Levy, Lévy or Levies may refer to: People * Levy (surname), people with the surname Levy or Lévy * Levy Adcock (born 1988), American football player * Levy Barent Cohen (1747–1808), Dutch-born British financier and community worker * Lev ...
*
Lévy process In probability theory, a Lévy process, named after the French mathematician Paul Lévy, is a stochastic process with independent, stationary increments: it represents the motion of a point whose successive displacements are random, in which disp ...
*
Fractional calculus Fractional calculus is a branch of mathematical analysis that studies the several different possibilities of defining real number powers or complex number powers of the differentiation operator D D f(x) = \frac f(x)\,, and of the integration ...
*
Anomalous diffusion Anomalous diffusion is a diffusion process with a non-linear relationship between the mean squared displacement (MSD), \langle r^(\tau )\rangle , and time. This behavior is in stark contrast to Brownian motion, the typical diffusion process descr ...
*
Incomplete gamma function In mathematics, the upper and lower incomplete gamma functions are types of special functions which arise as solutions to various mathematical problems such as certain integrals. Their respective names stem from their integral definitions, whic ...
and
Gamma distribution In probability theory and statistics, the gamma distribution is a versatile two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. The exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, and chi-squared distribution are special cases of the g ...
*
Poisson distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution () is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time if these events occur with a known const ...


References


External links

* R Packag
'stabledist'
by Diethelm Wuertz, Martin Maechler and Rmetrics core team members. Computes stable density, probability, quantiles, and random numbers. Updated Sept. 12, 2016. {{ProbDistributions, continuous-infinite Continuous distributions Probability distributions with non-finite variance Power laws Stability (probability)