Spanish general election, 2004

A general election was held in Spain on Sunday, 14 March 2004, to elect the members of the 8th . All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies were up for election, as well as 208 of 259 seats in the Senate. Incumbent prime minister José María Aznar of the People's Party (PP) did not run for re-election, being replaced as party candidate by former deputy prime minister Mariano Rajoy.

Since 2000, the PP had governed with an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies which allowed it to renegue from its previous agreements with peripheral nationalist parties. This period saw sustained economic growth, but the controversial management—and, at times, attempted cover-up—of a number of crises affected Aznar's government standing and fostered perceptions of arrogance: this included the "Gescartera case", the ''Prestige'' oil spill and the Yak-42 crash. A reform of unemployment benefits led to a general strike in 2002, and the unpopular decision to intervene in the Iraq War sparked massive protests across Spain. The electoral outcome was heavily influenced by the Madrid train bombings on 11 March—three days before the election—which saw Aznar's government blaming the Basque separatist ETA for the attacks, in spite of mounting evidence suggesting Islamist authorship. The ruling PP was accused by the opposition of staging a disinformation campaign to prevent the blame on the bombings being linked to Spain's involvement in Iraq.

At 11 million votes and 42.6%, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under new leader José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero increased its 2000 result by 3.1 million, securing a net gain of 39 seats to 164. In contrast, the PP, which opinion polls had predicted would secure a diminished but still commanding victory, lost 35 seats and 6.8 percentage points, resulting in the worst defeat for a sitting government in Spain up to that point since 1982. Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) benefitted from the impact of the "Carod case"—the revelation that party leader Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira had held a meeting with ETA shortly after joining the new Catalan regional government of Pasqual Maragall—which gave the party publicity to the detriment of Convergence and Union (CiU). The 75.7% voter turnout was among the highest since the Spanish transition to democracy, with no subsequent general election having exceeded such figure. The number of votes cast, at 26.1 million votes, remained the highest figure in gross terms for any Spanish election until April 2019.

The election result was described by some media as an "unprecedented electoral upset". Perceived PP abuses and public rejection at Spain's involvement in Iraq were said to help fuel a wave of discontent against the incumbent ruling party, with Aznar's mismanagement of the 11M bombings serving as the final catalyst for change to happen. Zapatero announced his will to form a minority PSOE government, seeking the parliamentary support of other parties once elected.

Background

The People's Party (PP) secured an absolute majority of seats for the first time ever in the 2000 general election, which allowed prime minister José María Aznar to be re-elected for a second term in office. The defeat of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which obtained its worst result since 1979, prompted the resignation of party leader Joaquín Almunia and a leadership contest, with dark horse candidate José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero emerging as new leader.

With unemployment remaining low under Spanish standards, Aznar's government continued its policy of economic liberalization in a wide range of activities (including several sectors that until then were subject to state monopoly): business hours, gasoline, electricity, gas, taxation, health, telecommunications, land, technology policy, professional associations and competition. This policy, together with the continued inflow of European funds, provided the State with extraordinary revenues that contributed to curb the fiscal deficit and reduce the level of public debt; however, the Spanish government's overreliance on housing as an economic engine generated a property bubble as many did not buy to live but to speculate. Further, the cash rounding resulting from the introduction of the euro on 1 January 2002 led to a rise in inflation.

Domestically, Aznar had to deal with the impact of the mad cow crisis early into its second term, with a bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreak in Spain resulting in five dead. In the summer of 2001, it was unveiled that the Gescartera investment company had engaged in profit-making activities by defrauding its clients through the misappropriation of funds and influence peddling, leading to the loss of around 18 billion Pts affecting up to 4,000 small investors; the scandal saw the resignations of the then Secretary of State for the Treasury, Enrique Giménez-Reyna—who was a brother to Gescartera's president—and the president of the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV). An attempt by the government to reform unemployment benefits and other working conditions through decree-law led to a general strike in 2002, forcing the proposal to be watered down; the Constitutional Court of Spain would end up ruling the proposed reform as unlawful in 2007.

Terrorism was a major issue during Aznar's second tenure as prime minister, as the ETA group conducted major attacks such as the killings of former health minister Ernest Lluch and Supreme Court judge Francisco Querol Lombardero, among others. In response, PP and PSOE signed an "Anti-Terrorist Pact" as a show of unity against terrorism, and in 2002 a new Law on Parties was passed which allowed the banning of the Batasuna party over its links and support to ETA's actions. Concurrently, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) under Lehendakari Juan José Ibarretxe sought to resolve the Basque conflict through a more pro- sovereigntist position, proposing an initiative—the Ibarretxe Plan—to totally reform the Basque Statute of Autonomy by proposing a free association of the Basque Country with Spain on an equal footing, including a right to self-determination.

This period also saw the controversial management of a number of crises by the Aznar government, receiving criticism over the perceived cover-up nature of its actions—frequently through denialism and diffusion of responsibility—which negatively affected its public standing and fostered a perception of arrogance in the exercise of power. The ''Prestige'' oil spill in November 2002 saw extensive damage to the coast of Galicia, with the Spanish government being criticized for its decision to tow the ailing wreck out to sea—where it split in two—rather than allow it to take refuge in a sheltered port, which was seen as a major contributing factor to the scale of the disaster. The Yak-42 crash in May 2003, with the death of all 75 occupants, saw a misidentification of bodies—with some remains being returned to the wrong relatives and others being mixed-up—as well as questions on the plane's poor condition.

At the international level, the election of George W. Bush as new U.S. president and the 9/11 attacks saw Spain aligning closer to the United States, with Aznar voicing his support to Bush's missile shield, the " war on terror" declared by Bush and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, in exchange for U.S. support to Spain's fight against ETA's terrorism. Spain's rapprochement to the United States and the United Kingdom—under then Prime Minister Tony Blair—culminated in the Azores Summit on 16 March 2003, which led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq under the alleged aim of disarming Saddam Hussein's regime of "weapons of mass destruction" (WMDs). Aznar's decision to intervene in the Iraq War proved highly unpopular, sparking massive anti-war protests across the country. The Perejil Island crisis in July 2002, which saw a squad of the Royal Moroccan Navy temporarily occupying the uninhabited island, was resolved after a bloodless military intervention by the Spanish military.

Aznar had emphasized a number of times that he only wished to serve as prime minister for two consecutive terms. In the 2002 PP congress, he confirmed his decision not to stand for re-election, and in April 2002 he announced that he would be withdrawing from politics altogether in the next general election. Among the prospective successors were Jaime Mayor Oreja—who vacated his post of interior minister in order to run as lehendakari candidate in the 2001 Basque regional election— first deputy prime minister Mariano Rajoy and second deputy prime minister and economy and finance minister Rodrigo Rato. Rato reportedly rejected twice being singled out as Aznar's successor, resulting in Rajoy being selected for the position in September 2003.

Despite the growing unpopularity of Aznar's government, the PP was able to come out of the 2003 local and regional elections with limited losses. The outcome of the regional election in Madrid was significant as it hinted at the formation of a left-wing government in Spain's capital region; however, the ''Tamayazo'' scandal—which saw two PSOE MPs refusing to follow party discipline—prevented the regional PSOE leader from becoming president and forced a repeat election in October, which the PP won. Shortly thereafter, the November 2003 Catalan regional election saw the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)—PSOE's sister party in Catalonia—oust Convergence and Union (CiU) from the Catalan government after 23 years of uninterrumpted rule, with a "tripartite" cabinet between PSC, Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) being formed under Pasqual Maragall.

Overview

Electoral system

The Spanish were envisaged as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies had greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a prime minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possessed a few exclusive (yet limited in number) functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which were not subject to the Congress' override. Voting for the was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain, with each being allocated an initial minimum of two seats and the remaining 248 being distributed in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla were allocated the two remaining seats, which were elected using plurality voting. The use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Congress multi-member constituency was entitled the following seats:

For the Senate, 208 seats were elected using an open list partial block voting system, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors could vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces was allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands, districts were the islands themselves, with the larger— Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller— Menorca, Ibiza– Formentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elected two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities could appoint at least one senator each and were entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants.

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislature's term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when needed, by the designated substitutes, of which the list could include up to ten.

Election date

The term of each chamber of the —the Congress and the Senate—expired four years from the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the legislature's term would expire on 12 March 2004. The election decree was required to be published in the BOE no later than 17 February 2004, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the on Sunday, 11 April 2004.

The prime minister had the prerogative to propose the monarch to dissolve both chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no state of emergency was in force and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both chambers were to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot. Barred this exception, there was no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections to the Congress and the Senate. Still, as of , there has been no precedent of separate elections taking place under the 1978 Constitution.

On 9 January 2004, it was announced that the general election would be held in March, with the election date being agreed with Andalusian president Manuel Chaves to make it being held concurrently with the 2004 Andalusian regional election.

The were officially dissolved on 20 January 2004 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOE, setting the election date for 14 March and scheduling for both chambers to reconvene on 2 April.

Parliamentary composition

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in both chambers at the time of dissolution.

Parties and candidates

Eligibility

Spanish citizens of age and with the legal capacity to vote could run for election, provided that they were not sentenced to imprisonment by a final court's decision nor convicted by a judgement, even if not yet final, which imposed a penalty of forfeiture of eligibility or of specific disqualification or suspension from public office under specific offences: rebellion, terrorism or other crimes against the state. Other general causes of ineligibility were imposed on members of the Spanish royal family; the president and members of the Constitutional Court, the General Council of the Judiciary, the Supreme Court, the Council of State, the Court of Auditors and the Economic and Social Council; the Ombudsman; the State's Attorney General; high-ranking members—undersecretaries, secretaries-general, directors-general and chiefs of staff—of Spanish government departments, the Prime Minister's Office, government delegations, the Social Security and other government agencies; heads of diplomatic missions in foreign states or international organizations; judges and public prosecutors in active service; Armed Forces and police corps personnel in active service; members of electoral commissions; the chair of RTVE; the director of the Electoral Register Office; the governor and deputy governor of the Bank of Spain; the chairs of the Official Credit Institute and other official credit institutions; and members of the Nuclear Safety Council; as well as a number of territorial-level officers in the aforementioned government bodies and institutions being barred from running, during their tenure of office, in constituencies within the whole or part of their respective area of jurisdiction. Disqualification provisions for the Cortes Generales extended to any employee of a foreign state and to members of regional governments, as well as the impossibility of running simultaneously as candidate for both the Congress and Senate.

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Main candidacies

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) agreed to continue with the Catalan Agreement of Progress alliance for the Senate with the inclusion of United and Alternative Left (EUiA). In the Balearic Islands, PSM–Nationalist Agreement (PSM–EN), United Left of the Balearic Islands (EUIB), The Greens of the Balearic Islands (EVIB) and ERC formed the Progressives for the Balearic Islands alliance. A proposal for an all-left electoral alliance for the Senate in the Valencian Community, comprising the PSOE, United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV) and the Valencian Nationalist Bloc (BNV), was ultimately discarded.

Campaign

Party slogans

Madrid train bombings

During the peak of Madrid rush hour on the morning of Thursday, 11 March 2004, ten explosions occurred aboard four commuter trains (''cercanías'') between Alcalá de Henares and Atocha station, killing 193 people and injuring around 2,500, in what would become the deadliest terrorist attack carried out in the history of Spain and the deadliest in Europe since the Lockerbie bombing in 1988.

In response to the bombings, political parties announced the suspension of their campaigns. At first, politicians from all parties—including the PSOE, CiU, IU, PNV, and ERC—blamed ETA. The Spanish government immediately claimed ETA's responsibility and dismissed any other authorship, with Prime Minister José María Aznar personally phoning newspaper editors to uphold this version at noon on the day of the attacks. Aznar's government also sent messages to all Spanish embassies abroad ordering that they uphold the version that ETA was responsible. However, ETA denied any involvement in the attacks, and evidence obtained by police and security forces started pointing to an Islamist authorship by the afternoon of 11 March: the discovery of a van containing a tape with Qur'anic verses and a claim of responsibility on behalf of al-Qaeda being published by the '' Al-Quds Al-Arabi'' London Arabic-language newspaper. The government insisted on the ETA's authorship claim into 12 March—despite the discovery that day of a detonator that did not match those used by ETA—and, on the eve of the election, PP candidate Mariano Rajoy claimed in a ''El Mundo'' interview that he had "the moral conviction that it was ETA". By that point, however, interior minister Ángel Acebes had acknowledged that the government had not "closed off any line of investigation".

In the days previous to the election, millions of Spaniards took to the streets protesting against the bombings in massive demonstrations across the country to condem terrorism and express solidarity for the victims, but also to demand answers about the attacks—with cabinet members at the Madrid demonstration on 12 March being greeted with booing and shouts of "Who did it?"—amid growing concerns that the government was deliberately concealing evidence from the public.

During the day of election silence on 13 March, spontaneous cell phone messages ending in the phrase ''pásalo'' (Spanish for "pass it on") invoked thousands to unofficial demonstrations in front of the ruling PP's headquarters in major cities throughout the country, blaming the attacks on Aznar's decision to engage in the Iraq War (with shouts of "your war, our dead" and "murderers"). On the evening of that day, the Spanish government announced the arrest of three Moroccans and two Indians, concurrently with the discovery of a videotape from a purported al-Qaeda official claiming responsibility for the attacks. This stirred further anti-government unrest throughout the country demanding to "being told the truth", which prompted Rajoy to issue a statement denouncing that the "illegal" protests constituted "undemocratic acts of pressure on tomorrow's election", and accusing the opposition PSOE of staging them. PSOE's Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba replied in a press briefing, rejecting Rajoy's accusations and condemning the government's handling of the crisis, revealing that party leaders had been aware for many hours that the main line of police investigation into the attacks was now pointing to Islamism—contrary to the government's public statements—and that they were never going to "use terrorism for political purposes", while also claiming that "Spanish citizens deserve a government that does not lie to them, a government that always tells them the truth". By the end of the night, the entire opposition was accusing the PP government of manipulating and concealing information on the bombings.

In the ensuing years, several sources would claim that the prospective electoral influence of the bombings was discussed in an emergency government meeting held on 11 March, which focused on the massacre's authorship: if ETA was proven to be responsible, it would favour the PP's hardline campaign on terrorism in a rally 'round the flag effect, but if an Islamist group appeared to have caused the blasts, people would link them to the Spanish intervention in the Iraq War and blame the PP for earning Spain enemies. Along these lines, a statement allegedly made in the meeting—and attributed by some accounts to Aznar's chief advisor, Pedro Arriola—claimed that "if it was ETA, we'll win landslide]; if it was the Islamists, the PSOE shall win".

Opinion polls

Results

Congress of Deputies

Senate

Maps

File:2004 Spanish general election map.svg, Election results by constituency (Congress).
File:2004 Spanish election - Results.svg, Vote winner strength by constituency (Congress).
File:2004 Spanish election - AC results.svg, Vote winner strength by autonomous community (Congress).

Aftermath

Government formation

Notes

References

Bibliography

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External links

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2004 elections in Spain
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March 2004 in Spain