The Second Cold War, Cold War II, or the New Cold War are terms that refer to heightened political, social, ideological, informational, and military tensions in the 21st century. The term is used in the context of the tensions between the

United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 U.S. state, states, a Washington, D.C., federal district, five ma ...

and China. It is also used to describe such tensions between the United States and

Russia Russia (, , ), or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. It is the largest country in the world, with its internationally recognised territory covering , and encompassing one-eigh ...

, the primary

successor state Succession of states is a concept in international relations regarding a successor state that has become a sovereign state over a territory (and populace) that was previously under the sovereignty of another state. The theory has its roots in 19th- ...

of the former

Soviet Union The Soviet Union,. officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR),. was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 to 1991. A flagship communist state, ...

, which was one of the major parties of the original Cold War until its dissolution in 1991. Furthermore, the term is used to describe tensions in multilateral relations between two or more groups of nations. Some commentators have used the term as a comparison to the original Cold War. Some other commentators have either doubted that tension would lead to another "cold war" or have discouraged using the term to refer to any current tensions.

Past usages

Past sources, such as academics

Fred Halliday Simon Frederick Peter Halliday (22 February 1946 – 26 April 2010) was an Irish writer and academic specialising in International Relations and the Middle East, with particular reference to the Cold War, Iran, and the Arabian peninsula. Bio ...

Alan M. Wald Alan Maynard Wald (born June 1, 1946) is an American professor emeritus of English Literature and American Culture at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and writer of 20th-century American literature who focuses on Communist writers; he is an ...

, and David S. Painter, used the interchangeable terms to refer to the 1979–1985 and/or 1985–1991 phases of the Cold War. Some other sources used similar terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. Columnist

William Safire William Lewis Safire (; Safir; December 17, 1929 – September 27, 2009Safire, William (1986). ''Take My Word for It: More on Language.'' Times Books. . p. 185.) was an American author, columnist, journalist, and presidential speechwriter. He ...

argued in a 1975 ''

New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

'' editorial that the

Nixon administration Richard Nixon's tenure as the 37th president of the United States began with his first inauguration on January 20, 1969, and ended when he resigned on August 9, 1974, in the face of almost certain impeachment because of the Watergate Scanda ...

's policy of

détente Détente (, French: "relaxation") is the relaxation of strained relations, especially political ones, through verbal communication. The term, in diplomacy, originates from around 1912, when France and Germany tried unsuccessfully to reduce ...

with the Soviet Union had failed and that "Cold War II" was then underway. Academic Gordon H. Chang in 2007 used the term "Cold War II" to refer to the Cold War period after the 1972 meeting in China between US President

Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was t ...

and

Chinese Communist Party The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), officially the Communist Party of China (CPC), is the founding and sole ruling party of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Under the leadership of Mao Zedong, the CCP emerged victorious in the Chinese Ci ...

chairman

Mao Zedong Mao Zedong pronounced ; also Romanization of Chinese, romanised traditionally as Mao Tse-tung. (26 December 1893 – 9 September 1976), also known as Chairman Mao, was a Chinese communist revolutionary who was the List of national founde ...

. In May 1998,

George Kennan George Frost Kennan (February 16, 1904 – March 17, 2005) was an American diplomat and historian. He was best known as an advocate of a policy of containment of Soviet expansion during the Cold War. He lectured widely and wrote scholarly histo ...

described the US Senate vote to expand NATO to include

Poland Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, , is a country in Central Europe. Poland is divided into Voivodeships of Poland, sixteen voivodeships and is the fifth most populous member state of the European Union (EU), with over 38 mill ...

Hungary Hungary ( hu, Magyarország ) is a landlocked country in Central Europe. Spanning of the Carpathian Basin, it is bordered by Slovakia to the north, Ukraine to the northeast, Romania to the east and southeast, Serbia to the south, Croa ...

, and the

Czech Republic The Czech Republic, or simply Czechia, is a landlocked country in Central Europe. Historically known as Bohemia, it is bordered by Austria to the south, Germany to the west, Poland to the northeast, and Slovakia to the southeast. Th ...

as "the beginning of a new cold war", and predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies". The journalist Edward Lucas wrote in 2008 that a new cold war between Russia and the West had already begun.

Usage in a multilateral context

In his op-ed for ''

The Straits Times ''The Straits Times'' is an English-language daily broadsheet newspaper based in Singapore and currently owned by SPH Media Trust (previously Singapore Press Holdings). ''The Sunday Times'' is its Sunday edition. The newspaper was establish ...

'', Kor Kian Beng wrote that the phrase "new Cold War" between US-led allies versus Beijing and Moscow did not gain traction in China at first. This changed in 2016 after the United States announced its plan to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) in South Korea against North Korea, but China and Russia found the advanced anti-missile system too close for comfort. The US also supported a tribunal ruling against China in favor of the Philippines in the South China Sea. Afterwards, the term "new Cold War" appeared in Chinese media more often. Analysts believe this does not reflect China's desire to pursue such a strategy but precautions should still be in place in order to lower the chances of any escalation. In June 2019,

University of Southern California , mottoeng = "Let whoever earns the palm bear it" , religious_affiliation = Nonsectarian—historically Methodist , established = , accreditation = WSCUC , type = Private research university , academic_affiliations = , endowment = $8. ...

(USC) professors

Steven Lamy Steven Lamy is a professor of international relations and a Vice Dean for the USC Dana and David Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences at the University of Southern California. He is also a past Director of the University of Southern Calif ...

and

Robert D. English Robert David English (born 1958) is an American academic, author, historian, and international relations scholar who specializes in the history and politics of contemporary Eastern Europe, the USSR, and Russia. He is an associate professor of ''In ...

agreed that the "new Cold War" would distract political parties from bigger issues such as

globalization Globalization, or globalisation (English in the Commonwealth of Nations, Commonwealth English; American and British English spelling differences#-ise, -ize (-isation, -ization), see spelling differences), is the process of foreign relation ...

global warming In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate variability and change, Climate change in a broader sense also includes ...

, global

poverty Poverty is the state of having few material possessions or little income. Poverty can have diverse < ...

, increasing inequality, and

far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of bein ...

populism Populism refers to a range of political stances that emphasize the idea of "the people" and often juxtapose this group against " the elite". It is frequently associated with anti-establishment and anti-political sentiment. The term develope ...

. However, Lamy said that the new Cold War had not yet begun, while English said that it already had. English further said that China poses a far greater threat than Russia in

cyberwarfare Cyberwarfare is the use of cyber attacks against an enemy state, causing comparable harm to actual warfare and/or disrupting vital computer systems. Some intended outcomes could be espionage, sabotage, propaganda, manipulation or economic war ...

but not as much as far-right populism does from within liberal states like the US. In his September 2021 speech to the

United Nations General Assembly The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA or GA; french: link=no, Assemblée générale, AG) is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN), serving as the main deliberative, policymaking, and representative organ of the UN. Cur ...

, US President Joe Biden said that the US is "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs." Biden further said that the US would cooperate "with any nation that steps up and pursues peaceful resolution to shared challenges," despite "intense disagreement in other areas, because we'll all suffer the consequences of our failure." In early May 2022,

Hoover Institution The Hoover Institution (officially The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace; abbreviated as Hoover) is an American public policy think tank and research institution that promotes Economic liberty, personal and economic liberty, Free ...

senior fellow

Niall Ferguson Niall Campbell Ferguson FRSE (; born 18 April 1964)Biography
Niall Ferguson

said at the

Milken Institute The Milken Institute is an independent economic think tank based in Santa Monica, California with offices in Washington, DC, New York, Miami, London, Abu Dhabi, and Singapore. It publishes research and hosts conferences that apply market-based p ...

Global Conference that "Cold War II began some time ago". He also said "Cold War II is different, though, because in Cold War II, China's the senior partner, and Russia's the junior partner", and "in Cold War II, the first hot war breaks out in Europe, rather than Asia." Later in the same month,

David Panuelo David W. Panuelo (born April 13, 1964) is a Micronesian politician who is serving as the president of the Federated States of Micronesia. His term started on May 11, 2019. Biography Panuelo was born on the island of Pohnpei, where he completed ...

President of the Federated States of Micronesia The president of the Federated States of Micronesia is the head of state and government of the Federated States of Micronesia The Federated States of Micronesia (; abbreviated FSM) is an island country in Oceania. It consists of four ...

, used the term to state his opposition to a proposed cooperation agreement between China and ten island nations, by claiming it could create a "new 'cold war' between China and the west." A journalist Michael Hirsh in June 2022 used the term " lobalCold War" to refer to tensions between leaders of

NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, ; french: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord, ), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 member states – 28 European and two No ...

(North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and China and its ally Russia, both countries striving to challenge the US's role as a superpower. Hirsh further cited growing tensions between the US and China as one of the causes of the newer Cold War alongside NATO's speech about China's "systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security". He further cited Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as one of factors of the newer Cold War's rise. In July 2022,

James Traub James Traub (born 1954) is an American journalist. He is a contributing writer for ''The New York Times Magazine'', where he has worked since 1998. From 1994 to 1997, he was a staff writer for ''The New Yorker''. He has also written for ''The New Y ...

used the term while discussing how the ideas of the

Non-Aligned Movement The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) is a forum of 120 countries that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc. After the United Nations, it is the largest grouping of states worldwide. The movement originated in the aftermath ...

, a forum of neutral countries organized during the original Cold War, can be used to understand the reaction of democratic countries in the developing world to current tensions. In the same month

France France (), officially the French Republic ( ), is a country primarily located in Western Europe. It also comprises of overseas regions and territories in the Americas and the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Its metropolitan ar ...

, the

and

scheduled high-level, multi-country diplomatic visits in Africa. An article reporting on these trips used the term "new Cold War" in relation to what "some say is the most intense competition for influence n Africasince the riginalCold War". An article published in the July 2022 issue of the journal '' Intereconomics'' linked the possible "beginning of a new cold war between the West and the East" with "the rebirth of a new era of conflict, the end of the late 20th century unipolar international security architecture under the hegemony of the United States, ndthe end of globalisation". In August 2022, an analysis article in the Israeli newspaper

Haaretz ''Haaretz'' ( , originally ''Ḥadshot Haaretz'' – , ) is an Israeli newspaper. It was founded in 1918, making it the longest running newspaper currently in print in Israel, and is now published in both Hebrew and English in the Berliner ...

used the term to refer to the US's "open confrontation with Russia and China". The article continues on to discuss the impact of the current situation on Israel, concluding that "in the new Cold War, sraelcannot allow itself to be neutral." In the same month,

Katrina vanden Heuvel Katrina vanden Heuvel (; born October 7, 1959) is an American editor and publisher. She is the publisher, part-owner, and former editor of the progressive magazine ''The Nation''. She was the magazine's editor from 1995 to 2019, when she was su ...

used the term while cautioning against what she perceived as a "reflexive bipartisan embrace of a new Cold War" against Russia and China among US politicians. In September 2022, a Greek civil engineer and politician

Anna Diamantopoulou Anna Diamantopoulou ( el, Άννα Διαμαντοπούλου; born 26 February 1959 in Kozani, Greece)

Usage in the context of China–United States tensions

The US senior defence official Jed Babbin, Yale University professor David Gelernter, ''

Firstpost ''Firstpost'' is an Indian online news and media website. The site is a part of the Network 18 media conglomerate owned by Reliance Industries, which also runs CNN-News18 and CNBC-TV18. The ''Network 18'' group was originally owned by Ra ...

'' editor R. Jagannathan, Subhash Kapila of the

South Asia Analysis Group South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG) is a non-profit think tank based in India which conducts public interest and advocacy work. The group consists of Indian academics and former government officials. The self-stated objectives of the group include adva ...

, former Australian Prime Minister

Kevin Rudd Kevin Michael Rudd (born 21 September 1957) is an Australian former politician and diplomat who served as the 26th prime minister of Australia from 2007 to 2010 and again from June 2013 to September 2013, holding office as the leader of the ...

, and some other sources have used the term (occasionally using the term "Pacific Cold War") to refer to tensions between the United States and China in the 2000s and 2010s.

Trump presidency

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of ...

, who was inaugurated as US president on 20 January 2017, had repeatedly said during his presidential campaign that he considered China a threat, a stance that heightened speculations of the possibility of a "new cold war with China".

Claremont McKenna College Claremont McKenna College (CMC) is a private liberal arts college in Claremont, California. It has a curricular emphasis on government, economics, public affairs, finance, and international relations. CMC is a member of the Claremont Colleges c ...

professor

Minxin Pei Minxin Pei (; born 1957 in Shanghai) is a Chinese-American political scientist and expert on governance in China, U.S.-Asia relations, and democratization in developing nations. He is currently the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Gov ...

said that Trump's election win and "ascent to the presidency" may increase chances of the possibility. In March 2017, a self-declared socialist magazine ''

Monthly Review The ''Monthly Review'', established in 1949, is an independent socialist magazine published monthly in New York City. The publication is the longest continuously published socialist magazine in the United States. History Establishment Following ...

'' said, "With the rise of the Trump administration, the new Cold War with Russia has been put on hold", and also said that the Trump administration has planned to shift from Russia to China as its main competitor. In July 2018, Michael Collins, deputy assistant director of the CIA's East Asia mission center, told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado he believed China under

paramount leader Paramount leader () is an informal term for the most important political figure in the People's Republic of China (PRC). The paramount leader typically controls the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA), often hol ...

and

general secretary Secretary is a title often used in organizations to indicate a person having a certain amount of authority, power, or importance in the organization. Secretaries announce important events and communicate to the organization. The term is derive ...

Xi Jinping Xi Jinping ( ; ; ; born 15 June 1953) is a Chinese politician who has served as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and thus as the paramount leader of China, ...

, while unwilling to go to war, was waging a "quiet kind of cold war" against the United States, seeking to replace the US as the leading global power. He further elaborated: "What they're waging against us is fundamentally a cold war — a cold war not like we saw during heCold War (between the U.S. and the Soviet Union) but a cold war by definition". In October 2018, a Hong Kong's

Lingnan University Lingnan University (LN/LU), formerly called Lingnan College, is a public liberal arts universities in Hong Kong, university in Hong Kong. It aims to provide students with an education in the liberal arts tradition and has joined the Global Li ...

professor Zhang Baohui told ''

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

'' that a speech by United States Vice-president

Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, ...

at the

Hudson Institute The Hudson Institute is a conservative American think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by futurist, military strategist, and systems theorist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Co ...

"will look like the declaration of a new Cold War". In January 2019, Robert D. Kaplan of the Center for a New American Security wrote that "it is nothing less than a new cold war: The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships’ maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means. This situation will last decades and will only get worse". In February 2019, Joshua Shifrinson, an associate professor from

Boston University Boston University (BU) is a private research university in Boston, Massachusetts. The university is nonsectarian, but has a historical affiliation with the United Methodist Church. It was founded in 1839 by Methodists with its original c ...

, criticised the concerns about tensions between China and the US as "overblown", saying that the relationship between the two countries are different from that of the US–Soviet Union relations during the original Cold War, that factors of heading to another era of bipolarity are uncertain, and that ideology play a less prominent role between China and the US. In June 2019, academic Stephen Wertheim called President Trump a "xenophobe" and criticised Trump's foreign policy toward China for heightening risks of a new Cold War, which Wertheim wrote "could plunge the United States back into gruesome proxy wars around the world and risk a still deadlier war among the great powers." In August 2019, Yuan Peng of the China Institute of International Studies said that the

financial crisis of 2007–2008 Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of ...

"initiated a shift in the global order." Yuan predicted the possibility of the new cold war between both countries and their global power competition turning "from 'superpower vs. major power' to 'No. 1 vs. No. 2'." On the other hand, scholar Zhu Feng said that their "strategic competition" would not lead to the new Cold War. Zhu said that the US–China relations have progressed positively and remained "stable", despite disputes in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait and US President Trump's aggressive approaches toward China. In January 2020, columnist and historian

Niall Ferguson Niall Campbell Ferguson FRSE (; born 18 April 1964)Biography
Niall Ferguson

opined that China is one of the major players of this Cold War, whose powers are "economic rather than military", and that Russia's role is "quite small". Ferguson also wrote: " mpared with the 1950s, the roles have been reversed. China is now the giant, Russia the mean little sidekick. China under Xi remains strikingly faithful to the doctrine of Marx and Lenin. Russia under Putin has reverted to

Tsarism Tsarist autocracy (russian: царское самодержавие, transcr. ''tsarskoye samoderzhaviye''), also called Tsarism, was a form of autocracy (later absolute monarchy) specific to the Grand Duchy of Moscow and its successor states th ...

." Ferguson further wrote that this Cold War is different from the original Cold War because the US "is so intertwined with China" at the point where "decoupling" is as others argued "a delusion" and because "America's traditional allies are much less eager to align themselves with Washington and against Beijing." He further wrote that the new Cold War "shifted away from trade to technology" when both the US and China signed their Phase One trade deal. In a February 2020 interview with ''

The Japan Times ''The Japan Times'' is Japan's largest and oldest English-language daily newspaper. It is published by , a subsidiary of News2u Holdings, Inc.. It is headquartered in the in Kioicho, Chiyoda, Tokyo. History ''The Japan Times'' was launched b ...

'', Ferguson suggested that, to "contain China", the US "work intelligently with its Asian and European allies", as the US had done in the original Cold War, rather than on its own and perform something more effective than "tariffs, which are a very blunt instrument." He also said that the US under Trump has been "rather poor" at making

foreign relations A state's foreign policy or external policy (as opposed to internal or domestic policy) is its objectives and activities in relation to its interactions with other states, unions, and other political entities, whether bilaterally or through m ...

. On May 24, 2020, China Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that relations with the US were on the "brink of a new Cold War" after it was fuelled by tensions over the

COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified ...

. In June 2020, Boston College political scientist Robert S. Ross wrote that the US and China "are destined to compete utnot destined for violent conflict or a cold war." In July, Ross said that the Trump "administration would like to fully decouple from China. No trade, no cultural exchanges, no political exchanges, no cooperation on anything that resembles common interests." In August 2020, a

La Trobe University La Trobe University is a public university, public research university based in Melbourne, Victoria (Australia), Victoria, Australia. Its main campus is located in the suburb of Bundoora, Victoria, Bundoora. The university was established in 196 ...

professor Nick Bisley wrote that the US–China rivalry "will be no Cold War" but rather will "be more complex, harder to manage, and last much longer." He further wrote that comparing the old Cold War to the ongoing rivalry "is a risky endeavour." In September 2020, the UN Secretary General

António Guterres António Manuel de Oliveira Guterres ( , ; born 30 April 1949) is a Portuguese politician and diplomat. Since 2017, he has served as secretary-general of the United Nations, the ninth person to hold this title. A member of the Portuguese Socia ...

warned that the increasing tensions between the US under Trump and China under Xi were leading to "a Great Fracture" which would become costly to the world. Xi Jinping replied by saying that "China has no intention to fight either a Cold War or a hot one with any country."

Biden presidency

In March 2021,

Columbia University Columbia University (also known as Columbia, and officially as Columbia University in the City of New York) is a private research university in New York City. Established in 1754 as King's College on the grounds of Trinity Church in Manha ...

professor Thomas J. Christensen wrote that the cold war between the US and China "is unlikely" in comparison to the original Cold War, citing China's prominence in the " global production chain" and absence of the

authoritarianism Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of strong central power to preserve the political ''status quo'', and reductions in the rule of law, separation of powers, and democratic vo ...

vs.

liberal democracy Liberal democracy is the combination of a liberal political ideology that operates under an indirect democratic form of government. It is characterized by elections between multiple distinct political parties, a separation of powers into ...

dynamic. Christensen further advised those concerned about the tensions between the two nations to research China's role in the global economy and its "foreign policy toward international conflicts and civil wars" between liberal and authoritarian forces. He further noted newly elected US President Joe Biden's planned different approach from predecessor Donald Trump. In September 2021, former Portuguese defence and foreign minister Paulo Portas described the announcement of the

AUKUS AUKUS (, ) is a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, announced on 15 September 2021 for the Indo-Pacific region. Under the pact, the US and the UK will help Australia to acquire nuclear-power ...

security pact and the ensuing unprecedented diplomatic crisis between the signatories ( Australia, the

United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the European mainland, continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotlan ...

, and the

) and France (which has several territories in the Indo-Pacific) as a possible formal starting point of a new Cold War. On 7 November 2021, President Joe Biden's national security adviser

Jake Sullivan Jacob Jeremiah Sullivan (born November 28, 1976) is an American political advisor who currently serves as the United States National Security Advisor to President Joe Biden. He was previously Director of Policy to President Barack Obama, Nation ...

stated that the US does not pursue

system change A system is a group of interacting or interrelated elements that act according to a set of rules to form a unified whole. A system, surrounded and influenced by its environment, is described by its boundaries, structure and purpose and expressed ...

in China anymore, marking a clear break from the China policy pursued by previous US administrations. Sullivan said that the US is not seeking a new Cold War with China, but is looking for a system of peaceful coexistence. In November 2021,

Hal Brands Hal Brands (born 1983) is an American scholar of U.S. foreign policy. He is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a resident scholar at ...

and Yale professor

John Lewis Gaddis John Lewis Gaddis (born 1941) is an American international relations scholar, military historian, and writer. He is the Robert A. Lovett Professor of Military and Naval History at Yale University. He is best known for his work on the Cold War a ...

wrote in their ''

Foreign Affairs ''Foreign Affairs'' is an American magazine of international relations and U.S. foreign policy published by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonprofit, nonpartisan, membership organization and think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and ...

'' article that China and the US have been entering "a new cold war", meaning "a protracted international rivalry, for

cold wars "Cold Wars" is the seventeenth episode of the third season of the NBC superhero drama series '' Heroes'' and fifty-first episode overall. The episode aired on February 23, 2009. Plot The episode begins with Matt Parkman, Peter Petrelli, and Mohi ...

in this sense are as old as history itself." Brands and Gaddis further wrote that this has not been "''the'' Cold War" and that "the context is quite different". Both authors differentiated the "Soviet–American Cold War" from the "Sino-American cold war". According to a poll done by

Morning Consult Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company established in 2014. It was named one of the fastest growing technology companies in North America by Deloitte in both 2018 and 2019 and was valued at more than one billion dollars in Jun ...

, only 15 percent of US respondents and 16 percent of Chinese respondents think the countries are in a cold war, with most rather categorizing it as a competition. In August 2022, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement condemning US House speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. This statement demanded, among other things, that the US "not seek a 'new Cold War'". Following a November 2022 meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping at the

G20 The G20 or Group of Twenty is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union (EU). It works to address major issues related to the global economy, such as international financial stability, climate change mitigation ...

summit in

Bali Bali () is a province of Indonesia and the westernmost of the Lesser Sunda Islands. East of Java and west of Lombok, the province includes the island of Bali and a few smaller neighbouring islands, notably Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan, and Nu ...

, Biden told reporters that "there need not be a new Cold War". In a December 8, 2022 statement to the press announcing the creation of the

United States House Select Committee on China The United States House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (often shortened to House Select Committee on China or Select Committee on the CCP) is a committee of the United States ...

Speaker Speaker may refer to: Society and politics * Speaker (politics), the presiding officer in a legislative assembly * Public speaker, one who gives a speech or lecture * A person producing speech: the producer of a given utterance, especially: ** In ...

of the

House of Representatives House of Representatives is the name of legislative bodies in many countries and sub-national entitles. In many countries, the House of Representatives is the lower house of a bicameral legislature, with the corresponding upper house often c ...

-elect

Kevin McCarthy Kevin Owen McCarthy (born January 26, 1965) is an American politician, serving as House Minority Leader in the United States House of Representatives since 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he served as House Majority Leader under spea ...

wrote that "China and the US are locked in a cold war."

Usage in the context of Russia–United States tensions

Debate over the term

Sources disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future, while others have used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions, hostilities, and political rivalries that intensified dramatically in 2014 between

, the

and their respective allies. Stephen F. Cohen,

Robert D. Crane Robert Dickson Crane (March 26, 1929 – December 12, 2021)
4 December 1985 was an Ame ...

, and

Alex Vatanka Alex Vatanka ( fa, آلکس وطنخواه) is a senior fellow and director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C. He specializes in Iranian domestic and regional policies. He is also a senior fellow in Middle East Studi ...

have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War". Sources opposed to the term argue that while new tensions between Russia and the West have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences, and provide Russia with new avenues for exerting influence, such as in

Belarus Belarus,, , ; alternatively and formerly known as Byelorussia (from Russian ). officially the Republic of Belarus,; rus, Республика Беларусь, Respublika Belarus. is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by ...

and

Central Asia Central Asia, also known as Middle Asia, is a region of Asia that stretches from the Caspian Sea in the west to western China and Mongolia in the east, and from Afghanistan and Iran in the south to Russia in the north. It includes the former ...

, which have not seen the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like

Ukraine Ukraine ( uk, Україна, Ukraïna, ) is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which it borders to the east and northeast. Ukraine covers approximately . Prior to the ongoing Russian invas ...

and the

Caucasus The Caucasus () or Caucasia (), is a region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, mainly comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia (country), Georgia, and parts of Southern Russia. The Caucasus Mountains, including the Greater Caucasus range ...

region. In June 2014, the Macedonian Ministry of Defense published an article asserting that the term "Cold War II" was as a misnomer. In February 2016, at the

Munich Security Conference The Munich Security Conference (MSC; german: Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz) is an annual conference on international security policy that has been held in Munich, Bavaria, Germany since 1963. Former names are ''Wehrkundetagung'' and ''Münchn ...

Secretary General

Jens Stoltenberg Jens Stoltenberg (born 16 March 1959) is a Norwegian politician who has been serving as the 13th secretary general of NATO since 2014. A member of the Norwegian Labour Party, he previously served as the 34th prime minister of Norway from 2000 t ...

said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War", while Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy on Russia, said "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War". In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg said that NATO did not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia. In February 2016, a

Higher School of Economics HSE University (russian: link=no, «Высшая школа экономики», ВШЭ), officially the National Research University Higher School of Economics (russian: link=no, Национальный исследовательский ун ...

university academic and

Harvard University Harvard University is a private Ivy League research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Founded in 1636 as Harvard College and named for its first benefactor, the Puritan clergyman John Harvard, it is the oldest institution of high ...

visiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote on ''

E-International Relations ''E-International Relations'' (''E-IR'') is an open-access website covering international relations and international politics. It provides an academic perspective on global events. Its editor-in-chief iStephen McGlinchey The website has publishe ...

'' that "the world is not entering Cold War II", asserting that the current tensions and ideologies of both sides are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that situations in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilise other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was". In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Russian Foreign Minister,

Sergey Lavrov Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov (russian: Сергей Викторович Лавров, ; born 21 March 1950) is a Russian diplomat and politician who has served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Russia), Foreign Minister of Russia since 2004. ...

, argued that current tensions were not comparable to the Cold War. He noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, saying that conflicts were no longer ideologically bipolar. In August 2016, Daniel Larison of ''

The American Conservative ''The American Conservative'' (''TAC'') is a magazine published by the American Ideas Institute which was founded in 2002. Originally published twice a month, it was reduced to monthly publication in August 2009, and since February 2013, it has ...

'' magazine wrote that tensions between Russia and the United States would not "constitute a 'new Cold War'" especially between

democracy Democracy (From grc, δημοκρατία, dēmokratía, ''dēmos'' 'people' and ''kratos'' 'rule') is a form of government in which people, the people have the authority to deliberate and decide legislation ("direct democracy"), or to choo ...

and

, which Larison found more limited than and not as significant in 2010s as that of the Soviet-Union era. Andrew Kuchins, an American political scientist and

Kremlinologist Kremlinology is the study and analysis of the politics and policies of the Soviet Union while Sovietology is the study of politics and policies of both the Soviet Union and former communist states more generally. These two terms were synonymous unt ...

speaking in December 2016, believed the term was "unsuited to the present conflict" as it may be more dangerous than the Cold War. In August 2017, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denied claims that the US and Russia were having another cold war, despite ongoing tensions between the two countries and newer US sanctions against Russia. A

University of East Anglia The University of East Anglia (UEA) is a public research university in Norwich, England. Established in 1963 on a campus west of the city centre, the university has four faculties and 26 schools of study. The annual income of the institution f ...

graduate student Oliver Steward and

the Casimir Pulaski Foundation The Casimir Pulaski Foundation (''Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego, FKP'') is an independent, non-profit, and non-partisan think tank based in Warsaw, Poland specializing in foreign policy and security research. The foundation is named after ...

senior fellow Stanisław Koziej in 2017 attributed

Zapad 2017 exercise WEST 2017 ( rus, «Запад-2017», ) was a joint strategic military exercise of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and Belarus (the Union State) that formally began on 14 September 2017 and ended on 20 September 2017, in Belarus as wel ...

, a military exercise by Russia, as part of the new Cold War. In March 2018, Russian President

Vladimir Putin Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin; (born 7 October 1952) is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who holds the office of president of Russia. Putin has served continuously as president or prime minister since 1999: as prime m ...

told journalist

Megyn Kelly Megyn Marie Kelly (; born November 18, 1970) is an American journalist and media personality. She currently hosts a talk show and podcast, ''The Megyn Kelly Show'', that airs live daily on SiriusXM. She was a talk show host at Fox News from 200 ...

in an interview: "My point of view is that the individuals that have said that a new Cold War has started are not analysts. They do propaganda." Michael Kofman, a senior

research scientist A scientist is a person who conducts scientific research to advance knowledge in an area of the natural sciences. In classical antiquity, there was no real ancient analog of a modern scientist. Instead, philosophers engaged in the philosophi ...

at the

CNA Corporation CNA, formerly known as the CNA Corporation, is a federally-funded nonprofit research and analysis organization based in Arlington County, Virginia. CNA has around 625 employees. General CNA operates: * The Center for Naval Analyses. CNA's Cente ...

and a

fellow A fellow is a concept whose exact meaning depends on context. In learned or professional societies, it refers to a privileged member who is specially elected in recognition of their work and achievements. Within the context of higher education ...

at the

Wilson Center The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (or Wilson Center) is a quasi-government entity and think tank which conducts research to inform public policy. Located in the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Wash ...

Kennan Institute The Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars was founded in 1974 to carry out studies of the Soviet Union ( Sovietology), and subsequently of post-Soviet Russia and other post-Soviet states. The institute is wid ...

said that the new cold war for Russia "is about its survival as a power in the international order, and also about holding on to the remnants of the Russian empire". Lyle Goldstein, a

research professor Professor (commonly abbreviated as Prof.) is an academic rank at universities and other post-secondary education and research institutions in most countries. Literally, ''professor'' derives from Latin as a "person who professes". Professors ...

at the

US Naval War College The Naval War College (NWC or NAVWARCOL) is the staff college and "Home of Thought" for the United States Navy at Naval Station Newport in Newport, Rhode Island. The NWC educates and develops leaders, supports defining the future Navy and asso ...

claims that the situations in

Georgia Georgia most commonly refers to: * Georgia (country), a country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia * Georgia (U.S. state), a state in the Southeast United States Georgia may also refer to: Places Historical states and entities * Related to t ...

and

"seemed to offer the requisite storyline for new Cold War". Also in March 2018, Harvard University professors

Stephen Walt Stephen Martin Walt (born July 2, 1955) is the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International relations at the Harvard Kennedy School at Harvard University and a political scientist. A member of the realist school of international relations ...

and then

Odd Arne Westad Odd Arne Westad FBA (born 5 January 1960) is a Norwegian historian specializing in the Cold War and contemporary East Asian history. He is the Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University, where he teaches in the Yale History ...

criticised application of the term to increasing tensions between the Russia and the West as "misleading", "distract ng, and too simplistic to describe the more complicated contemporary international politics. In October 2018, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer told Deutsche Welle that the new Cold War would make the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and other Cold War-era treaties "irrelevant because they correspond to a totally different world situation." In February 2019, Russian Foreign Minister

stated that the withdrawal from the INF treaty would not lead to "a new Cold War". Russian news agency

TASS The Russian News Agency TASS (russian: Информацио́нное аге́нтство Росси́и ТАСС, translit=Informatsionnoye agentstvo Rossii, or Information agency of Russia), abbreviated TASS (russian: ТАСС, label=none) ...

reported the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying "I don't think that we should talk about a new Cold War", adding that the US development of low-yield nuclear warheads (the first of which entered production in January 2019) had increased the potential for the use of nuclear weapons.

Middle East conflicts

In 2013,

Michael Klare Michael T. Klare is a Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose department is located at Hampshire College (Amherst, Massachusetts, USA), defense correspondent of ''The Nation'' magazine and author of ''Resource Wars'' ...

compared in

RealClearPolitics RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator formed in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. The site features selected political ne ...

tensions between Russia and the West to the ongoing proxy conflict between

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia, officially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), is a country in Western Asia. It covers the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula, and has a land area of about , making it the List of Asian countries by area, fifth-largest country in Asia ...

and

Iran Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, and also called Persia, is a country located in Western Asia. It is bordered by Iraq and Turkey to the west, by Azerbaijan and Armenia to the northwest, by the Caspian Sea and Turkm ...

. Oxford Professor Philip N. Howard argued that a new cold war was being fought via the media,

information warfare Information warfare (IW) (as different from cyber warfare that attacks computers, software, and command control systems) is a concept involving the battlespace use and management of information and communication technology (ICT) in pursuit of ...

, and cyberwar. Some observers, including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, judged the Syrian civil war to be a

proxy war A proxy war is an armed conflict between two states or non-state actors, one or both of which act at the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities. In order for a conflict to be considered a pr ...

between

and the

, and even a "proto-

world war A world war is an international conflict which involves all or most of the world's major powers. Conventionally, the term is reserved for two major international conflicts that occurred during the first half of the 20th century, World War I, Worl ...

". In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues". In April 2018, relations deteriorated over a potential US-led military strike in Middle East after the

Douma chemical attack On 7 April 2018, a chemical warfare attack was carried out by forces of the government of Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian city of Douma. Medics and witnesses reported that it caused the deaths of between 40 and 50 people and injuries to possibl ...

in Syria, which was attributed to the

Syrian Army " (''Guardians of the Homeland'') , colors = * Service uniform: Khaki, Olive * Combat uniform: Green, Black, Khaki , anniversaries = August 1st , equipment = , equipment_label = , battles = 1948 Arab–Israeli War Six ...

by rebel forces in Douma, and poisoning of the Skripals in the UK. The

Secretary-General of the United Nations The secretary-general of the United Nations (UNSG or SG) is the chief administrative officer of the United Nations and head of the United Nations Secretariat, one of the United Nations System#Six principal organs, six principal organs of the Un ...

, told a meeting of the

UN Security Council The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN) and is charged with ensuring international peace and security, recommending the admission of new UN members to the General Assembly, ...

that "the Cold War was back with a vengeance". He suggested the dangers were even greater, as the safeguards that existed to manage such a crisis "no longer seem to be present". Dmitri Trenin supported Guterres' statement, but added that it began in 2014 and had been intensifying since, resulting in US-led strikes on the Syrian government on 13 April 2018. In February 2022, journalist Marwan Bishara held the US and Russia responsible for pursuing "their own narrow interests", including then-US President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel as well as Putin's 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and for "pav ngthe way for, well, another Cold War".

Russo-Ukrainian War

The term "Cold War II" gained currency and relevance as tensions between Russia and the West escalated throughout the

2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine From the end of February 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups took place in major cities across the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine in the aftermath of the Revolution of Dignity, which resulted in the succ ...

followed by the Russian military intervention and especially the downing of

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17/MAS17) was a scheduled passenger flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur that was shot down by Russian forces on 17 July 2014, while flying over eastern Ukraine. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed. Cont ...

in July 2014. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and

European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been ...

, imposed punitive measures on Russia, which introduced retaliatory measures. In 2014, notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the

Russo-Ukrainian War The Russo-Ukrainian War; uk, російсько-українська війна, rosiisko-ukrainska viina. has been ongoing between Russia (alongside Russian separatists in Ukraine) and Ukraine since February 2014. Following Ukraine's Rev ...

, that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring. The American political scientist Robert Legvold also believes it started in 2013 during the Ukraine crisis. Robert Legvold, ''Return to Cold War''. Cambridge: Polity, 2016 Others argued that the term did not accurately describe the nature of relations between Russia and the West. In October 2016, John Sawers, a former MI6 chief, said he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington". Similarly,

Igor Zevelev Igor Alexandrovich Zevelev ( Russian: Игорь Александрович Зевелëв) is a Russian political scientist who has been a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center since 2020. Youth and education Igor Zevelev was born in Tashkent, ...

, a fellow at the

, said that "it's not a Cold War uta much more dangerous and unpredictable situation". CNN opined: "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict". In January 2017, a former US Government adviser Molly K. McKew said at ''

Politico ''Politico'' (stylized in all caps), known originally as ''The Politico'', is an American, German-owned political journalism newspaper company based in Arlington County, Virginia, that covers politics and policy in the United States and intern ...

'' that the US would win a new cold war. ''

The New Republic ''The New Republic'' is an American magazine of commentary on politics, contemporary culture, and the arts. Founded in 1914 by several leaders of the progressive movement, it attempted to find a balance between "a liberalism centered in hu ...

'' editor Jeet Heer dismissed the possibility as "equally troubling reckless threat inflation, wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power in support of a costly policy", and too centred on Russia while "ignoring the rise of powers like China and India". Heer also criticised McKew for suggesting the possibility. Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in the

Brookings Institution The Brookings Institution, often stylized as simply Brookings, is an American research group founded in 1916. Located on Think Tank Row in Washington, D.C., the organization conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in e ...

, wrote in his blog post at ''

'', referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result". Speaking to the press in

Berlin Berlin is Capital of Germany, the capital and largest city of Germany, both by area and List of cities in Germany by population, by population. Its more than 3.85 million inhabitants make it the European Union's List of cities in the European U ...

on 8 November 2019, a day before the 30th anniversary of the

fall of the Berlin Wall The fall of the Berlin Wall (german: Mauerfall) on 9 November 1989, during the Peaceful Revolution, was a pivotal event in world history which marked the destruction of the Berlin Wall and the figurative Iron Curtain and one of the series of ...

, US secretary of state

Mike Pompeo Michael Richard Pompeo (; born December 30, 1963) is an American politician, diplomat, and businessman who served under President Donald Trump as director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) from 2017 to 2018 and as the 70th United State ...

warned of the dangers posed by Russia and China and specifically accused Russia, "led by a former KGB officer once stationed in

Dresden Dresden (, ; Upper Saxon: ''Dräsdn''; wen, label=Upper Sorbian, Drježdźany) is the capital city of the German state of Saxony and its second most populous city, after Leipzig. It is the 12th most populous city of Germany, the fourth ...

", of invading its neighbours and crushing dissent. Jonathan Marcus of the

BBC #REDIRECT BBC Here i going to introduce about the best teacher of my life b BALAJI sir. He is the precious gift that I got befor 2yrs . How has helped and thought all the concept and made my success in the 10th board exam. ...

opined that Pompeo's words "appeared to be declaring the outbreak of a second old War. In February 2022, journalist H. D. S. Greenway cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine and 4 February joint statement between Russia and China (under Putin and

) as one of the signs that Cold War II had officially begun. In March 2022, Yale historian Arne Westad and Harvard historian Fredrik Logevall in a

videotelephony Videotelephony, also known as videoconferencing and video teleconferencing, is the two-way or multipoint reception and transmission of audio and video signals by people in different locations for real time communication.McGraw-Hill Concise Enc ...

conversation asserted "that the global showdown over Ukraine" would "not signal a second Cold War". Furthermore, Westad said that Putin's words about Ukraine resembled, which Harvard journalist James F. Smith summarized, "some of the colonial racial arguments of imperial powers of the past, ideas from the late 19th and early 20th century rather than the Cold War." In June 2022, journalist

Gideon Rachman Gideon Rachman (born 1963) is a British journalist. He became the chief foreign affairs commentator of the ''Financial Times'' in July 2006. In 2016, he won the Orwell Prize for political journalism. In the same year, he was awarded with the C ...

asserted the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the start of a second Cold War.

References

External links

* * * {{Western culture 21st-century conflicts Foreign relations of the European Union Foreign relations of China China–Russia relations China–United States relations 21st century in Europe 21st century in Russia Foreign relations of Russia Foreign relations of the United States Geopolitical rivalry Global conflicts History of Russia (1991–present) Russia–NATO relations Russia–European Union relations Russia–United States relations 2010s neologisms Possible future wars Post–Cold War era

Past usages

Usage in a multilateral context

Trump presidency

Biden presidency

Usage in the context of Russia–United States tensions

Debate over the term

Middle East conflicts

Russo-Ukrainian War

See also

References

Further reading

External links