Psephology (; from Greek ) is the study of elections and voting. Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain

election An election is a formal group decision-making process whereby a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold Public administration, public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative d ...

results. The term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British standard of the language. Psephology uses historical precinct

voting Voting is the process of choosing officials or policies by casting a ballot, a document used by people to formally express their preferences. Republics and representative democracies are governments where the population chooses representative ...

data, public

opinion poll An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of qu ...

campaign finance Campaign financealso called election finance, political donations, or political financerefers to the funds raised to promote candidates, political parties, or policy initiatives and referendums. Donors and recipients include individuals, corpor ...

information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in writing appeared in 1952."Chapter 15: British Psephology 1945–2001: Reflections on the Nuffield Election Histories"
David Butler, Still More Adventures With Britannia: Personalities, Politics and Culture in Britain. William Roger Louis (Ed.), Harry Ranson Humanities Research Centre, University of Texas, 2003

Etymology

The term draws from the Greek word for

pebble A pebble is a clastic rocks, clast of rock (geology), rock with a grain size, particle size of based on the Particle size (grain size), Udden-Wentworth scale of sedimentology. Pebbles are generally considered larger than Granule (geology), gra ...

as the

ancient Greeks Ancient Greece () was a northeastern Mediterranean civilization, existing from the Greek Dark Ages of the 12th–9th centuries BC to the end of classical antiquity (), that comprised a loose collection of culturally and linguistically re ...

used pebbles to vote. (Similarly, the word "

ballot A ballot is a device used to cast votes in an election and may be found as a piece of paper or a small ball used in voting. It was originally a small ball (see blackballing) used to record decisions made by voters in Italy around the 16th cent ...

" is derived from the medieval French word "''ballotte''", meaning a small ball.)

Applications

Psephology is a division of

political science Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and Power (social and political), power, and the analysis of political activities, political philosophy, political thought, polit ...

that deals with the examination as well as the statistical analysis of elections and polls. People who practise psephology are called psephologists. A few of the major tools that are used by a psephologist are historical precinct voting data, campaign finance information, and other related data.

Public opinion polls An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of que ...

also play an important role in psephology. Psephology also has various applications specifically in analysing the results of election returns for current indicators, as opposed to predictive purposes. For instance, the

Gallagher Index The Gallagher index measures an electoral system's relative Proportional representation, disproportionality between votes received and seats in a legislature. As such, it measures the difference between the percentage of votes each party gets and ...

measures the amount of proportional representation in an election. Degrees in psephology are not offered (instead, a psephologist might have a degree in political science and/or statistics). Knowledge of demographics, statistical analysis and politics (especially electoral systems and voting behaviour) are prerequisites for becoming a psephologist.

Notable psephologists

Notable psephologists include: * David Andrews, who since 1973 has led the Canadian network CTV's analysis and "calling" of dozens of federal and elections and referendums * Michael Barone, who has co-authored ''

The Almanac of American Politics ''The Almanac of American Politics'' is a reference work published biennially by Columbia Books & Information Services. It aims to provide a detailed look at the politics of the United States through an approach of profiling individual leaders a ...

'' biennially since 1972 * David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the

swingometer The swingometer is a graphics device that shows the effects of the Swing (United Kingdom), swing from one party to another on United Kingdom, British UK General Elections, election results programmes. It is used to estimate the number of seats th ...

Charlie Cook Charles Edward Cook Jr. (born November 20, 1953) is an American political analyst. Specializing in election forecasts and political trends, Cook writes election forecasts and rankings in the publication he founded, '' The Cook Political Report ...

, publisher of ''

The Cook Political Report Amy Elizabeth Walter (born October 19, 1969)"Profile: Amy Walter"
John Curtice, who has a strong track record of forecasting UK elections * Thomas Ferguson, for his

Investment theory of party competition The Investment theory of party competition is a political theory developed by Thomas Ferguson (academic), Thomas Ferguson, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts Boston. The theory focuses on how business elites, ...

* Michael Gallagher who devised the

Gallagher index The Gallagher index measures an electoral system's relative Proportional representation, disproportionality between votes received and seats in a legislature. As such, it measures the difference between the percentage of votes each party gets and ...

* Curtis Gans, author of ''Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009'' *

Antony Green Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian Psephology, psephologist, Data science, data scientist, journalist, and commentator. He was the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst until his retirement from the r ...

, election analyst for the

Australian Broadcasting Corporation The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) is Australia’s principal public service broadcaster. It is funded primarily by grants from the federal government and is administered by a government-appointed board of directors. The ABC is ...

since 1991 * Éric Grenier at thewrit.ca * Pradeep Gupta, chairman of Axis My India * Allan Lichtman, professor and creator of The Keys to the White House *

Frank Luntz Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster, best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes. His work has included assistance with messaging ...

received the first ever doctorate in campaign technology from

Trinity College, Oxford Trinity College (full name: The College of the Holy and Undivided Trinity in the University of Oxford, of the foundation of Sir Thomas Pope (Knight)) is a Colleges of the University of Oxford, constituent college of the University of Oxford in E ...

and won the

Washington Post ''The Washington Post'', locally known as ''The'' ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'' or ''WP'', is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., the national capital. It is the most widely circulated newspaper in the Washington m ...

Crystal Ball award for most accurate polling * Malcolm Mackerras (who devised the

Mackerras pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House ...

) * Victor Prescott, who preceded Antony Green as election analyst for the ABC * V.C. Sekhar, an Indian academic *

Nate Silver Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and poker player who Sabermetrics, analyzes baseball, basketball and Psephology, elections. He is the founder of ''FiveThirty ...

, creator of the website

FiveThirtyEight ''FiveThirtyEight'', also rendered as ''538'', was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the U ...

tracking U.S. voting trends * Andrew S. Tanenbaum and Christopher Bates, who together write the daily electoral-vote.com website, which tracks polling for US presidential and congressional elections * Noel Whelan, Irish politician and psephologist *

Yogendra Yadav Yogendra Yadav (born 5 September 1963) is an Indian activist, Psephology, psephologist and politician whose primary interests are in the political and social sciences. He was a Senior Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies ...

, Indian politician and psephologist

References

External links

ACE Project
– Information resource for electoral design and administration. Includes comparative data on elections and electoral systems
International IDEA
– International Organisation providing (amongst other things) statistical analysis of elections and electoral systems
'Psephos'
Dr. Adam Carr's Elections Archive {{Authority control

Etymology

Applications

Notable psephologists

See also

References

External links