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Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors but excludes local issues. Main features The site was developed by Martin Baxter, who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. From April 2019, the headline prediction covered the Brexit Party and Change UK – The Independent Group. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the 2019 general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. Methodology The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues. The calculation ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Forecasting
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. History of Election Forecasting People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, note ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Blog
A blog (a truncation of "weblog") is a discussion or informational website published on the World Wide Web consisting of discrete, often informal diary-style text entries (posts). Posts are typically displayed in reverse chronological order so that the most recent post appears first, at the top of the web page. Until 2009, blogs were usually the work of a single individual, occasionally of a small group, and often covered a single subject or topic. In the 2010s, "multi-author blogs" (MABs) emerged, featuring the writing of multiple authors and sometimes professionally edited. MABs from newspapers, other media outlets, universities, think tanks, advocacy groups, and similar institutions account for an increasing quantity of blog traffic. The rise of Twitter and other " microblogging" systems helps integrate MABs and single-author blogs into the news media. ''Blog'' can also be used as a verb, meaning ''to maintain or add content to a blog''. The emergence and growth of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Opinion Polling In The United Kingdom
An opinion is a judgment, viewpoint, or statement that is not conclusive, rather than facts, which are true statements. Definition A given opinion may deal with subjective matters in which there is no conclusive finding, or it may deal with facts which are sought to be disputed by the logical fallacy that one is entitled to their opinions. Distinguishing fact from opinion is that facts are verifiable, i.e. can be agreed to by the consensus of experts. An example is: "United States of America was involved in the Vietnam War," versus "United States of America was right to get involved in the Vietnam War". An opinion may be supported by facts and principles, in which case it becomes an argument. Different people may draw opposing conclusions (opinions) even if they agree on the same set of facts. Opinions rarely change without new arguments being presented. It can be reasoned that one opinion is better supported by the facts than another, by analyzing the supporting argument ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electoral Geography
Electoral geography is the analysis of the methods, the behavior, and the results of elections in the context of geographic space and using geographical techniques. Specifically, it is an examination of the dual interaction in which geographical affect the political decisions, and the geographical structure of the election system affects electoral results. The purpose of the analysis is to identify and understand driving factors and the electoral characteristics of territories in a broad and integrative manner. Agnew, John. 1996. “Mapping politics: how context counts in electoral geography”. In Political Geography, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp. 129-146. Elsevier: London, United Kingdom. Elections Elections serve as the central political expression and exercise of power within democratic states,Jones, Martin, Jones, Rhys, and Woods, Michael. 2006. “Democracy, participation and citizenship”. In An Introduction to Political Geography: Space, Place and Politics, Second Edition ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Elections In The United Kingdom
There are five types of elections in the United Kingdom: elections to the House of Commons of the United Kingdom (commonly called 'general elections' when all seats are contested), elections to devolved parliaments and assemblies, local elections, mayoral elections, and Police and Crime Commissioner elections. Within each of those categories, there may also be by-elections. Elections are held on Election Day, which is conventionally a Thursday, and under the provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 the timing of general elections can be held at the discretion of the Prime Minister during any five-year period. All other types of elections are held after fixed periods, though early elections to the devolved assemblies and parliaments can occur in certain situations. The five electoral systems used are: the single member plurality system ( first-past-the-post), the multi-member plurality system, the single transferable vote, the additional member sys ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
British Political Websites
British may refer to: Peoples, culture, and language * British people, nationals or natives of the United Kingdom, British Overseas Territories, and Crown Dependencies. ** Britishness, the British identity and common culture * British English, the English language as spoken and written in the United Kingdom or, more broadly, throughout the British Isles * Celtic Britons, an ancient ethno-linguistic group * Brittonic languages, a branch of the Insular Celtic language family (formerly called British) ** Common Brittonic, an ancient language Other uses *'' Brit(ish)'', a 2018 memoir by Afua Hirsch *People or things associated with: ** Great Britain, an island ** United Kingdom, a sovereign state ** Kingdom of Great Britain (1707–1800) ** United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland (1801–1922) See also * Terminology of the British Isles * Alternative names for the British * English (other) * Britannic (other) * British Isles * Brit (other) * Br ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Independent
''The Independent'' is a British online newspaper. It was established in 1986 as a national morning printed paper. Nicknamed the ''Indy'', it began as a broadsheet and changed to tabloid format in 2003. The last printed edition was published on Saturday 26 March 2016, leaving only the online edition. The newspaper was controlled by Tony O'Reilly's Irish Independent News & Media from 1997 until it was sold to the Russian oligarch and former KGB Officer Alexander Lebedev in 2010. In 2017, Sultan Muhammad Abuljadayel bought a 30% stake in it. The daily edition was named National Newspaper of the Year at the 2004 British Press Awards. The website and mobile app had a combined monthly reach of 19,826,000 in 2021. History 1986 to 1990 Launched in 1986, the first issue of ''The Independent'' was published on 7 October in broadsheet format.Dennis Griffiths (ed.) ''The Encyclopedia of the British Press, 1422–1992'', London & Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1992, p. 330 It was prod ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
John Rentoul
John Rentoul (born 1958) is a British journalist. He is the chief political commentator for ''The Independent''. Early life Rentoul was born in India, where his father was a minister of the Church of South India. Educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School, he studied History and English at King's College, Cambridge, and worked on an oil rig before becoming a journalist on ''Accountancy Age''. He is related to Sir Gervais Rentoul, the Conservative MP who was the founding chairman of the 1922 Committee. Career as political journalist Rentoul was a journalist on the ''New Statesman'' between January 1983 and May 1988, latterly as Deputy Editor, and a political reporter for the BBC's '' On the Record'' between 1988 and 1995. He became a political correspondent of ''The Independent'' in 1995 and that newspaper's chief leader writer from January 1997, before becoming chief political commentator for ''The Independent on Sunday'' in 2004. His biography of Tony Blair has passed through sev ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Michael White (journalist)
Michael White (born 21 October 1945) is a British journalist who was until 2016 an associate editor of ''The Guardian''. He is the paper's former political editor. Early and personal life White was raised in Wadebridge, Cornwall. He was educated at Bodmin Grammar School and then studied for a BA in history at University College London. His son is the political adviser Sam White. Career White began his career in journalism at the '' Reading Evening Post'' (1966–71) and after a spell at London's ''Evening Standard'' (1970–71) he moved to ''The Guardian'', where he worked as a sub/feature writer (1971–74), diary writer (1974–76), political correspondent and sketchwriter (1976–84) and Washington correspondent from 1984. He became the newspaper's political editor in 1990, succeeding Ian Aitken; he relinquished the position to Patrick Wintour at the beginning of 2006. He retired from his ''Guardian'' positions in October 2016. In 2003, he was voted Print Journalist o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Andrew Rawnsley
Andrew Nicholas James Rawnsley (born 5 January 1962) is a British political journalist and broadcaster. A columnist and chief political commentator for ''The Observer'', he has written two books on New Labour. Early life Rawnsley was born in Leeds. He was educated at Lawrence Sheriff School in Rugby and later on a scholarship at Rugby School and read history at Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge, gaining a first-class Honours degree. He was a columnist for the newsletter of the Cambridge University Social Democrats during 1982–83. He was also editor of ''Stop Press'', the Cambridge University newspaper of the day, and won the Guardian Student Journalist of the year award in 1984. Career Newspapers Rawnsley began his career at the BBC, working there for two years from 1983, then joined ''The Guardian'' in 1985. From 1987 he was the newspaper's parliamentary sketch writer. In 1993 he moved to ''The Observer'' as chief political commentator and associate editor, a position he ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
2010 United Kingdom General Election
The 2010 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 6 May 2010, with 45,597,461 registered voters entitled to vote to elect members to the House of Commons. The election took place in 650 constituencies across the United Kingdom under the first-past-the-post system. The election resulted in a large swing to the Conservative Party similar to that seen in 1979, the last time a Conservative opposition had ousted a Labour government. The Labour Party lost the 66-seat majority it had previously enjoyed, but no party achieved the 326 seats needed for a majority. The Conservatives, led by David Cameron, won the most votes and seats, but still fell 20 seats short. This resulted in a hung parliament where no party was able to command a majority in the House of Commons. This was only the second general election since the Second World War to return a hung parliament, the first being the February 1974 election. For the leaders of all three major political parties, this wa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Swingometer
The swingometer is a graphics device that shows the effects of the swing from one party to another on British election results programmes. It is used to estimate the number of seats that will be won by different parties, given a particular national swing (in percentage points) in the vote towards or away from a given party, and assuming that that percentage change in the vote will apply in each constituency. The device was invented by Peter Milne, and later refined by David Butler and Robert McKenzie. The first outing on British television was during a regional output from the BBC studios in Bristol during the 1955 general election (the first UK general election to be televised) and was used to show the swing in the two constituencies of Southampton Itchen and Southampton Test. Following this use in 1955, the BBC adopted the swingometer on a national basis and it was unveiled in the national broadcasts for the 1959 general election. This swingometer merely showed the nati ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
