Mark J. Hulbert (born 1955) is an American finance analyst, journalist, and author with a focus on expectations of stock market investment newsletters,

contrarian investing Contrarian investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time. A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispr ...

, and quantitive or technical analysis.

Early life and education

Hulbert was born in Kansas in 1955. His father was a professor of

botany Botany, also called plant science, is the branch of natural science and biology studying plants, especially Plant anatomy, their anatomy, Plant taxonomy, taxonomy, and Plant ecology, ecology. A botanist or plant scientist is a scientist who s ...

Kansas State University Kansas State University (KSU, Kansas State, or K-State) is a public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university with its main campus in Manhattan, Kansas, United States. It was opened as the state's land-grant coll ...

. Hulbert graduated in philosophy from

Haverford College Haverford College ( ) is a private university, private Liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Haverford, Pennsylvania, United States. It was founded as a men's college in 1833 by members of the Religious Society of Fr ...

in 1977 and from the

University of Oxford The University of Oxford is a collegiate university, collegiate research university in Oxford, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world and the List of oldest un ...

in 1979.

Career

In September 1980, with financing from James Davidson and William Bonner, Hulbert launched ''Hulbert Financial Digest'', a publication that tracked the performance of investment newsletters from the perspective of actual subscribers, including the timing and specificity of the buy/sell information published in such newsletters.. It grew to 14,000 subscribers by 1985. In 1985, Hulbert won a

libel Defamation is a communication that injures a third party's reputation and causes a legally redressable injury. The precise legal definition of defamation varies from country to country. It is not necessarily restricted to making assertions ...

suit filed by a publisher that ranked at the bottom of Hulbert's ratings. By 1988, Hulbert was rating 125 newsletters based on specific, actionable buy/sell recommendations and risk-adjusted performance. He was based out of his townhouse on

Capitol Hill Capitol Hill is a neighborhoods in Washington, D.C., neighborhood in Washington, D.C., located in both the Northeast, Washington, D.C., Northeast and Southeast, Washington, D.C., Southeast quadrants. It is bounded by 14th Street SE & NE, F S ...

. His digest received $600,000 in annual revenue and was spending $15,000-$20,000 on newsletter subscriptions. Hulbert also calculated how much of the newsletters' performance is due to picking stocks with good prospects and how much due to market timing. From 1998 through early 2010, Hulbert wrote a column on investment strategies published in the Sunday edition of

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...

. In 2000, an annual subscription to Hulbert's publication cost $135. In April 2002, Hulbert sold the company that owned the digest and interactive website to

MarketWatch ''MarketWatch'' is a website that provides financial information, business news, analysis, and stock market data. It is a subsidiary of Dow Jones & Company, a property of News Corp, along with ''The Wall Street Journal'' and '' Barron's.'' ...

. Hulbert became an editor and writer of a column on MarketWatch. In March 2004, Hulbert launched Hulbert Interactive, a website for interactive research into investment newsletters and advisors. In 2014, Hulbert announced that ''The Prudent Speculator'', an investment newsletter edited by John Buckingham, had the best average annual return over the last 20 years of all newsletters, with an average annual return of 16.3%. In February 2016, the final issue of the newsletter was published, with Hulbert noting "In today’s world ... awash as it is in Big Data, he newsletterseems to be less needed. That, at least, is the judgment of the market." Hulbert continues to write columns for

Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index

The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) "reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timers tracked". HSNSI is a

indicator: if it is high, he views the outlook for stocks as poor. Conversely, when it is low, his outlook is good. The predictive power of the Index has been disputed by CXO Advisory Group.

Hulbert comments on the value of newsletters

Hulbert admits that his newsletter has no value to a hypothetical emotionless investor: "Simply put, the odds are overwhelming that — over the long term — you will make more money by buying and holding an index fund." But real investors are "...unable to hold an index fund through a bear market, and by selling near the bottom they fail to realize ... hetheoretical longterm potential." In contrast, he claims real investors are "...likely to make more money ... by following strategies that are statistically inferior ... but which are psychologically superior..." because the investor will follow their chosen advisor newsletter rigorously, which is preferable to buying an index fund but panic selling in a down market.

Publications

Books

* ''Interlock: The Untold Story of American Banks, Oil Interests, the Shah's Money, Debts and Astounding Connections Between Them'' * ''The Hulbert guide to financial newsletters''. * ''Constructive Approaches to the Foreign Debt Dilemma,'' a collection of papers presented at a seminar of the Taxpayers' Foundation held on September 21, 1983, in Washington DC (edited along with Eric Meltzer).

Noteworthy articles

Opinion: Two lessons from Lehman Brothers’ 2008 collapse can save your investments
August 28, 2018,

Opinion: ‘Tech wreck’ is not what will end this bull market
September 7, 2018, MarketWatch
Opinion: Greedy stock investors are starting to show signs of irrational exuberance
September 14, 2018, MarketWatch

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Hulbert, Mark 1955 births Living people American business and financial journalists American male journalists American online journalists American financial writers Technical analysts