Forcast (company)

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.

Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible. In some cases the data used to predict the variable of interest is itself forecast.

Applications

Forecasting has applications in a wide range of fields where estimates of future conditions are useful. Depending on the field, accuracy varies significantly. If the factors that relate to what is being forecast are known and well understood and there is a significant amount of data that can be used, it is likely the final value will be close to the forecast. If this is not the case or if the actual outcome is affected by the forecasts, the reliability of the forecasts can be significantly lower.

Climate change and increasing energy prices have led to the use of Egain Forecasting for buildings. This attempts to reduce the energy needed to heat the building, thus reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Forecasting is used in customer demand planning in everyday business for manufacturing and distribution companies.

While the veracity of predictions for actual stock returns are disputed through reference to the efficient-market hypothesis, forecasting of broad economic trends is common. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions.

Forecasting foreign exchange movements is typically achieved through a combination of chart and fundamental analysis. An essential difference between chart analysis and fundamental economic analysis is that chartists study only the price action of a market, whereas fundamentalists attempt to look to the reasons behind the action. Financial institutions assimilate the evidence provided by their fundamental and chartist researchers into one note to provide a final projection on the currency in question.Pound Sterling Live
"Euro Forecast from Institutional Researchers"
A list of collated exchange rate forecasts encompassing technical and fundamental analysis in the foreign exchange market.

Forecasting has also been used to predict the development of conflict situations. Forecasters perform research that uses empirical results to gauge the effectiveness of certain forecasting models. However research has shown that there is little difference between the accuracy of the forecasts of experts knowledgeable in the conflict situation and those by individuals who knew much less. Similarly, experts in some studies argue that role thinking - standing in other people's shoes to forecast their decisions - does not contribute to the accuracy of the forecast.

An important, albeit often ignored aspect of forecasting, is the relationship it holds with planning. Forecasting can be described as predicting what the future ''will'' look like, whereas planning predicts what the future ''should'' look like. There is no single right forecasting method to use. Selection of a method should be based on your objectives and your conditions (data etc.). A good place to find a method, is by visiting a selection tree. An example of a selection tree can be found here.

Forecasting has application in many situations:

*Supply chain management and customer demand planning - Forecasting can be used in supply chain management to ensure that the right product is at the right place at the right time. Accurate forecasting will help retailers reduce excess inventory and thus increase profit margin. Accurate forecasting will also help them meet consumer demand. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. Studies have shown that extrapolations are the least accurate, while company earnings forecasts are the most reliable.
*Economic forecasting
*Earthquake prediction
* Egain forecasting
*Energy forecasting for renewable power integration
* Finance against risk of default via credit ratings and credit scores
*Land use forecasting
* Player and team performance in sports
*Political forecasting
*Product forecasting
*Sales forecasting
*Technology forecasting
*Telecommunications forecasting
*Transport planning and forecasting
*Weather forecasting, flood forecasting and meteorology