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PECOTA
PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002–2003 and introduced to the public in the book ''Baseball Prospectus 2003''. Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts, making 2010 the first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing PECOTA projections.Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009,BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009. One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and poker player who Sabermetrics, analyzes baseball, basketball and Psephology, elections. He is the founder of ''FiveThirtyEight'' and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News (United States), ABC News until May 2023. Since departing ''FiveThirtyEight'', Silver has been publishing in his online newsletter ''Silver Bulletin'' and serves as an advisor to Polymarket. Silver was named one of Time 100, the world's 100 most influential people by ''Time (magazine), Time'' in 2009 after his election forecasting model correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 United States presidential election, 2008 U.S. presidential election. His subsequent models predicted the outcome of the 2012 United States presidential election, 2012 and 2020 United States presidential election, 2020 presidential elec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Prospectus (BP) is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site. Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history. Baseball Prospectus has originated several popular new statistical tools that have become hallmarks of baseball analysis. Baseball Prospectus is accredited by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Four of Baseball Prospectus's current regular writers are members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America and thus eligible to vote for nominees for Major League Baseball's post-season awards and the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, Baseball Hall of Fame. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC Baseball Prospectus is formally an entity of Pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sabermetric
Sabermetrics (originally SABRmetrics) is the original or blanket term for sports analytics in the US, the empirical analysis of baseball, especially the development of advanced metrics based on baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. The term is derived from the movement's progenitors, members of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), founded in 1971, and was coined by Bill James, (in 1980, according to SABR.org), who is one of its pioneers and considered its most prominent advocate and public face. The term moneyball refers to the use of metrics to identify "undervalued players" and sign them to what ideally will become "below market value" contracts; it began as an effort by small-market teams to compete with the much greater resources of big-market ones. Early history English-American sportswriter Henry Chadwick (writer), Henry Chadwick developed the Box score (baseball), box score in New York City in 1858. This was the first way statisticians were ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Similarity Score
In sabermetrics and basketball analytics, similarity scores are a method of comparing baseball and basketball players (usually in MLB or the NBA) to other players, with the intent of discovering who the most similar historical players are to a certain player. Similarity scores are among the many original sabermetric concepts first introduced by Bill James. James initially created the concept as a way to effectively compare non-Hall of Fame players to players in the Hall, to see who was either on track to make the HOF, or to determine if any eligible players had been snubbed by the selection committee. For example, if the most similar players to a non-HOFer were all in the Hall of Fame, one could effectively argue that that player should be in the Hall. More recently, similarity scores have been used to determine career paths and projected statistics for players. The logic behind this line of thought is simple: players often follow similar career trajectories to their most similar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bill Pecota
William Joseph Pecota (born February 16, 1960) is an American former Major League Baseball infielder. He is the namesake of PECOTA, a sabermetric created by Nate Silver and owned by Baseball Prospectus. Early years Pecota attended Peterson High School in Sunnyvale, California. He was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the tenth round of the January draft after playing at De Anza College in Cupertino, California. He batted .253 with 31 home runs and 267 runs batted in over six seasons in the Royals' farm system when he debuted with the Royals in September . Kansas City Royals Pecota accomplished the rare feat of getting his first major league RBI before his first major league hit. On September 22, in his sixth plate appearance, he drove in Jim Sundberg with a sacrifice fly. On September 25, he doubled off Frank Viola for his first major league hit. He started the season with the Omaha Royals but was up in the majors by the end of April. He went back-to-back with Bo Jackso ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', also rendered as ''538'', was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of ''The New York Times'' online and was renamed ''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus''. In July 2013, ESPN acquired ''FiveThirtyEight'', hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for '' ESPN.com''; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Afterwards, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company). During the presiden ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Earned Run Average
In baseball statistics, earned run average (ERA) is the average of earned runs allowed by a pitcher per nine innings pitched (i.e. the traditional length of a game). It is determined by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number of innings pitched and multiplying by nine. Thus, a lower ERA is better. Runs resulting from passed balls, defensive errors (including pitchers' defensive errors), and runners placed on base at the start of extra innings are recorded as unearned runs and omitted from ERA calculations. Origins Henry Chadwick is credited with devising the statistic, which caught on as a measure of pitching effectiveness after relief pitching came into vogue in the 1900s. Prior to 1900 and for many years afterward, pitchers were routinely expected to pitch a complete game, and their win–loss record was considered sufficient in determining their effectiveness. After pitchers like James Otis Crandall and Charley Hall made names for themselves as rel ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Equivalent Average
Equivalent Average (EqA) is a baseball metric invented by Clay Davenport and intended to express the production of hitters in a context independent of park and league effects. It represents a hitter's productivity using the same scale as batting average. Thus, a hitter with an EqA over .300 is a very good hitter, while a hitter with an EqA of .220 or below is poor. An EqA of .260 is defined as league average. The date EqA was invented cannot readily be documented, but references to it were being offered on the rec.sport.baseball usenet group as early as January 14, 1996. Baseball Prospectus renamed it True Average (TAv) in 2010, in an attempt to make it more accessible. Definition and rationale In the formula given in the box above, the abbreviations are H=Hit, TB=Total bases, BB=Bases on balls (walks), HBP=Hit by pitch, SB=Stolen base, SH=Sacrifice hit (typically, sacrifice bunt), SF=Sacrifice fly, AB=At bat, CS=Caught stealing. EqA is one of several sabermetric approaches whi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might Estimation, estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional data, cross-sectional or longitudinal study, longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Home Run
In baseball, a home run (abbreviated HR) is scored when the Baseball (ball), ball is hit in such a way that the batting (baseball), batter is able to circle the bases and reach home plate safe (baseball), safely in one play without any error (baseball), errors being committed by the Defense (sports), defensive team. A home run is usually achieved by hitting the ball over the outfield fence between the foul poles (or hitting either foul pole) without the ball touching the Baseball field, field. Inside-the-park home runs where the batter reaches home safely while the baseball is in play on the field are infrequent. In very rare cases, a fielder attempting to catch a ball in flight may misplay it and knock it over the outfield fence, resulting in a home run. An official scorer will credit the batter with a hit (baseball), hit, a Run (baseball), run scored, and a run batted in (RBI), as well as an RBI for each Base running, runner on base. The pitcher is recorded as having given u ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Point Estimation
In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value (known as a point estimate since it identifies a point in some parameter space) which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown population parameter (for example, the population mean). More formally, it is the application of a point estimator to the data to obtain a point estimate. Point estimation can be contrasted with interval estimation: such interval estimates are typically either confidence intervals, in the case of frequentist inference, or credible intervals, in the case of Bayesian inference. More generally, a point estimator can be contrasted with a set estimator. Examples are given by confidence sets or credible sets. A point estimator can also be contrasted with a distribution estimator. Examples are given by confidence distributions, randomized estimators, and Bayesian posteriors. Properties of point estimates Biasedness “Bias” is defined as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Alan Schwarz
Alan Schwarz (born July 3, 1968) is a Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer and author, formerly at ''The New York Times'', best known for writing more than 100 articles that exposed the National Football League's cover-up of concussions and brought the issue of brain injuries in sports to worldwide attention. His investigative and profile pieces are generally credited with revolutionizing the respect and protocol for concussions in youth and professional athletics. Schwarz's work was profiled in ''The New Yorker'' and several films, including the Will Smith movie "Concussion" and the documentaries " Head Games" and PBS '' Frontline's'' " League of Denial". The ''Columbia Journalism Review'' featured him on the cover of its 2011 ''Art of Great Reporting'' issue and wrote of his concussion work, "He put the issue on the agenda of lawmakers, sports leagues, and the media at large — and helped create a new debate about risk and responsibility in sports." The impact of the series was desc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
