Decision Support System for John Day Reservoir

A decision support system (DSS) is an

information system An information system (IS) is a formal, sociotechnical, organizational system designed to collect, process, Information Processing and Management, store, and information distribution, distribute information. From a sociotechnical perspective, info ...

that supports business or organizational

decision-making In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the Cognition, cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be ...

activities. DSSs serve the management, operations and planning levels of an organization (usually mid and higher management) and help people make decisions about problems that may be rapidly changing and not easily specified in advance—i.e., unstructured and semi-structured decision problems. Decision support systems can be either fully computerized or human-powered, or a combination of both. While academics have perceived DSS as a tool to support decision making processes, DSS users see DSS as a tool to facilitate organizational processes. Some authors have extended the definition of DSS to include any

system A system is a group of interacting or interrelated elements that act according to a set of rules to form a unified whole. A system, surrounded and influenced by its open system (systems theory), environment, is described by its boundaries, str ...

that might support

decision making In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be either ra ...

and some DSS include a decision-making software component; Sprague (1980)Sprague, R;(1980).
A Framework for the Development of Decision Support Systems
" MIS Quarterly. Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 1–25. defines a properly termed DSS as follows: # DSS tends to be aimed at the less well structured, underspecified

problem Problem solving is the process of achieving a goal by overcoming obstacles, a frequent part of most activities. Problems in need of solutions range from simple personal tasks (e.g. how to turn on an appliance) to complex issues in business an ...

that upper level managers typically face; # DSS attempts to combine the use of models or analytic techniques with traditional

data access Data access is a generic term referring to a process which has both an IT-specific meaning and other connotations involving access rights in a broader legal and/or political sense. In the former it typically refers to software and activities relat ...

and retrieval functions; # DSS specifically focuses on features which make them easy to use by non-computer-proficient people in an

interactive Across the many fields concerned with interactivity, including information science, computer science, human-computer interaction, communication, and industrial design, there is little agreement over the meaning of the term "interactivity", but mo ...

mode; and # DSS emphasizes

flexibility Stiffness is the extent to which an object resists deformation in response to an applied force. The complementary concept is flexibility or pliability: the more flexible an object is, the less stiff it is. Calculations The stiffness, k, of a ...

and

adaptability Adaptability ( "fit to, adjust") is a feature of a system or of a process. This word has been put to use as a specialised term in different disciplines and in business operations. Word definitions of adaptability as a specialised term differ littl ...

to accommodate changes in the environment and the

approach of the user. DSSs include

knowledge-based systems A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a computer program that reasons and uses a knowledge base to solve complex problems. Knowledge-based systems were the focus of early artificial intelligence researchers in the 1980s. The term can refer to a b ...

. A properly designed DSS is an interactive software-based system intended to help decision makers compile useful information from a combination of raw data, documents, personal knowledge, and/or business models to identify and solve problems and make decisions. Typical information that a decision support application might gather and present includes: *inventories of information assets (including legacy and relational data sources,

cubes A cube or regular hexahedron is a three-dimensional space, three-dimensional solid object in geometry, which is bounded by six congruent square (geometry), square faces, a type of polyhedron. It has twelve congruent edges and eight vertices. It i ...

data warehouse In computing, a data warehouse (DW or DWH), also known as an enterprise data warehouse (EDW), is a system used for Business intelligence, reporting and data analysis and is a core component of business intelligence. Data warehouses are central Re ...

s, and

data mart A data mart is a structure/access pattern specific to ''data warehouse'' environments. The data mart is a subset of the data warehouse that focuses on a specific business line, department, subject area, or team. Whereas data warehouses have an en ...

s), *comparative sales figures between one period and the next, *projected revenue figures based on product sales assumptions.

History

The concept of decision support has evolved mainly from the theoretical studies of organizational decision making done at the Carnegie Institute of Technology during the late 1950s and early 1960s, and the implementation work done in the 1960s.Keen, P. G. W. (1978). ''Decision support systems: an organizational perspective''. Reading, Mass., Addison-Wesley Pub. Co. DSS became an area of research of its own in the middle of the 1970s, before gaining in intensity during the 1980s. In the middle and late 1980s,

executive information system An executive information system (EIS), also known as an executive support system (ESS), is a type of management support system that facilitates and supports senior executive information and decision-making needs. It provides easy access to intern ...

s (EIS), group decision support systems (GDSS), and organizational decision support systems (ODSS) evolved from the single user and model-oriented DSS. According to Sol (1987), Henk G. Sol et al. (1987). ''Expert systems and artificial intelligence in decision support systems: proceedings of the Second Mini Euroconference, Lunteren, The Netherlands, 17–20 November 1985''. Springer, 1987. . pp. 1–2. the definition and scope of DSS have been migrating over the years: in the 1970s DSS was described as "a computer-based system to aid decision making"; in the late 1970s the DSS movement started focusing on "interactive computer-based systems which help decision-makers utilize data bases and models to solve ill-structured problems"; in the 1980s DSS should provide systems "using suitable and available technology to improve effectiveness of managerial and professional activities", and towards the end of 1980s DSS faced a new challenge towards the design of intelligent workstations. In 1987,

Texas Instruments Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) is an American multinational semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. It is one of the top 10 semiconductor companies worldwide based on sales volume. The company's focus is on developing analog ...

completed development of the Gate Assignment Display System (GADS) for

United Airlines United Airlines, Inc. is a Major airlines of the United States, major airline in the United States headquartered in Chicago, Chicago, Illinois that operates an extensive domestic and international route network across the United States and six ...

. This decision support system is credited with significantly reducing travel delays by aiding the management of ground operations at various

airport An airport is an aerodrome with extended facilities, mostly for commercial Aviation, air transport. They usually consist of a landing area, which comprises an aerially accessible open space including at least one operationally active surf ...

s, beginning with

O'Hare International Airport Chicago O'Hare International Airport is the primary international airport serving Chicago, Illinois, United States, located on the city's Northwest Side, approximately northwest of the Chicago Loop, Loop business district. The airport is ope ...

Chicago Chicago is the List of municipalities in Illinois, most populous city in the U.S. state of Illinois and in the Midwestern United States. With a population of 2,746,388, as of the 2020 United States census, 2020 census, it is the List of Unite ...

and Stapleton Airport in

Denver Denver ( ) is a List of municipalities in Colorado#Consolidated city and county, consolidated city and county, the List of capitals in the United States, capital and List of municipalities in Colorado, most populous city of the U.S. state of ...

, Colorado. Beginning in about 1990,

data warehousing In computing, a data warehouse (DW or DWH), also known as an enterprise data warehouse (EDW), is a system used for Business intelligence, reporting and data analysis and is a core component of business intelligence. Data warehouses are central Re ...

and on-line analytical processing (OLAP) began broadening the realm of DSS. As the turn of the millennium approached, new Web-based analytical applications were introduced. DSS also have a weak connection to the

user interface In the industrial design field of human–computer interaction, a user interface (UI) is the space where interactions between humans and machines occur. The goal of this interaction is to allow effective operation and control of the machine fro ...

paradigm of

hypertext Hypertext is E-text, text displayed on a computer display or other electronic devices with references (hyperlinks) to other text that the reader can immediately access. Hypertext documents are interconnected by hyperlinks, which are typic ...

. Both the

University of Vermont The University of Vermont and State Agricultural College, commonly referred to as the University of Vermont (UVM), is a Public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university in Burlington, Vermont, United States. Foun ...

PROMIS system (for medical decision making) and the Carnegie Mellon ZOG/ KMS system (for military and business decision making) were decision support systems which also were major breakthroughs in user interface research. Furthermore, although

researchers have generally been concerned with information overload, certain researchers, notably

Douglas Engelbart Douglas Carl Engelbart (January 30, 1925 – July 2, 2013) was an American engineer, inventor, and a pioneer in many aspects of computer science. He is best known for his work on founding the field of human–computer interaction, particularly ...

, have been focused on decision makers in particular. The advent of more and better reporting technologies has seen DSS start to emerge as a critical component of

management Management (or managing) is the administration of organizations, whether businesses, nonprofit organizations, or a Government agency, government bodies through business administration, Nonprofit studies, nonprofit management, or the political s ...

design. Examples of this can be seen in the intense amount of discussion of DSS in the education environment.

Applications

DSS can theoretically be built in any knowledge domain. One example is the clinical decision support system for

medical diagnosis Medical diagnosis (abbreviated Dx, Dx, or Ds) is the process of determining which disease or condition explains a person's symptoms and signs. It is most often referred to as a diagnosis with the medical context being implicit. The information ...

. There are four stages in the evolution of clinical decision support system (CDSS): the primitive version is standalone and does not support integration; the second generation supports integration with other medical systems; the third is standard-based, and the fourth is service model-based. DSS is extensively used in business and management. Executive dashboard and other business performance software allow faster decision making, identification of negative trends, and better allocation of business resources. Due to DSS, all the information from any organization is represented in the form of charts, graphs i.e. in a summarized way, which helps the management to take strategic decisions. For example, one of the DSS applications is the management and development of complex anti-terrorism systems. Other examples include a bank loan officer verifying the credit of a loan applicant or an engineering firm that has bids on several projects and wants to know if they can be competitive with their costs. A growing area of DSS application, concepts, principles, and techniques is in agricultural production, marketing for

sustainable development Sustainable development is an approach to growth and Human development (economics), human development that aims to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.United Nations General ...

. Agricultural DSSes began to be developed and promoted in the 1990s. For example, the DSSAT4 package, The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer developed through financial support of

USAID The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is an agency of the United States government that has been responsible for administering civilian United States foreign aid, foreign aid and development assistance. Established in 19 ...

during the 1980s and 1990s, has allowed rapid assessment of several agricultural production systems around the world to facilitate decision-making at the farm and policy levels. Precision agriculture seeks to tailor decisions to particular portions of farm fields. There are, however, many constraints to the successful adoption of DSS in agriculture. DSS is also prevalent in

forest management Forest management is a branch of forestry concerned with overall administrative, legal, economic, and social aspects, as well as scientific and technical aspects, such as silviculture, forest protection, and forest regulation. This includes man ...

where the long planning horizon and the spatial dimension of planning problems demand specific requirements. All aspects of Forest management, from log transportation, harvest scheduling to sustainability and ecosystem protection have been addressed by modern DSSs. In this context, the consideration of single or multiple management objectives related to the provision of goods and services that are traded or non-traded and often subject to resource constraints and decision problems. The Community of Practice of Forest Management Decision Support Systems provides a large repository on knowledge about the construction and use of forest Decision Support Systems. A specific example concerns the

Canadian National Railway The Canadian National Railway Company () is a Canadian Class I freight railway headquartered in Montreal, Quebec, which serves Canada and the Midwestern and Southern United States. CN is Canada's largest railway, in terms of both revenue a ...

system, which tests its equipment on a regular basis using a decision support system. A problem faced by any

railroad Rail transport (also known as train transport) is a means of transport using wheeled vehicles running in railway track, tracks, which usually consist of two parallel steel railway track, rails. Rail transport is one of the two primary means of ...

is worn-out or defective rails, which can result in hundreds of

derailment In rail transport, a derailment is a type of train wreck that occurs when a rail vehicle such as a train comes off its rails. Although many derailments are minor, all result in temporary disruption of the proper operation of the railway sys ...

s per year. Under a DSS, the Canadian National Railway system managed to decrease the incidence of derailments at the same time other companies were experiencing an increase. DSS has been used for risk assessment to interpret monitoring data from large engineering structures such as dams, towers, cathedrals, or masonry buildings. For instance, Mistral is an expert system to monitor dam safety, developed in the 1990s by Ismes (Italy). It gets data from an automatic monitoring system and performs a diagnosis of the state of the dam. Its first copy, installed in 1992 on the Ridracoli Dam (Italy), is still operational 24/7/365. It has been installed on several dams in Italy and abroad (e.g., Itaipu Dam in Brazil), and on monuments under the name of Kaleidos. Mistral is a registered trade mark of CESI. GIS has been successfully used since the '90s in conjunction with DSS, to show on a map real-time risk evaluations based on monitoring data gathered in the area of the Val Pola disaster (Italy).

Components

Drought Mitigation Decision Support System

Three fundamental components of a DSS

architecture Architecture is the art and technique of designing and building, as distinguished from the skills associated with construction. It is both the process and the product of sketching, conceiving, planning, designing, and construction, constructi ...

are:Haettenschwiler, P. (1999)
Neues anwenderfreundliches Konzept der Entscheidungsunterstützung
Gutes Entscheiden in Wirtschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft. Zurich, vdf Hochschulverlag AG: 189-208.Power, D. J. (2002)
Decision support systems: concepts and resources for managers
Westport, Conn., Quorum Books.Sprague, R. H. and E. D. Carlson (1982). Building effective decision support systems. Englewood Cㄴliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall. Marakas, G. M. (1999). Decision support systems in the twenty-first century. Upper Saddle River, N.J., Prentice Hall. # the

database In computing, a database is an organized collection of data or a type of data store based on the use of a database management system (DBMS), the software that interacts with end users, applications, and the database itself to capture and a ...

(or

knowledge base In computer science, a knowledge base (KB) is a set of sentences, each sentence given in a knowledge representation language, with interfaces to tell new sentences and to ask questions about what is known, where either of these interfaces migh ...

), # the

model A model is an informative representation of an object, person, or system. The term originally denoted the plans of a building in late 16th-century English, and derived via French and Italian ultimately from Latin , . Models can be divided in ...

(i.e., the decision context and user criteria) # the

. The users themselves are also important components of the architecture.

Taxonomies

Using the relationship with the user as the criterion, Haettenschwiler differentiates ''passive'', ''active'', and ''cooperative DSS''. A ''passive DSS'' is a system that aids the process of decision making, but that cannot bring out explicit decision suggestions or solutions. An ''active DSS'' can bring out such decision suggestions or solutions. A ''cooperative DSS'' allows for an iterative process between human and system towards the achievement of a consolidated solution: the decision maker (or its advisor) can modify, complete, or refine the decision suggestions provided by the system, before sending them back to the system for validation, and likewise the system again improves, completes, and refines the suggestions of the decision maker and sends them back to them for validation. Another taxonomy for DSS, according to the mode of assistance, has been created by D. Power: he differentiates ''communication-driven DSS'', ''data-driven DSS'', ''document-driven DSS'', ''knowledge-driven DSS'', and ''model-driven DSS''. *A ''communication-driven DSS'' enables cooperation, supporting more than one person working on a shared task; examples include integrated tools like Google Docs or Microsoft SharePoint Workspace. *A ''data-driven DSS'' (or data-oriented DSS) emphasizes access to and manipulation of a

time series In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. ...

of internal company data and, sometimes, external data. *A ''document-driven DSS'' manages, retrieves, and manipulates unstructured information in a variety of electronic formats. *A ''knowledge-driven DSS'' provides specialized

problem-solving Problem solving is the process of achieving a goal by overcoming obstacles, a frequent part of most activities. Problems in need of solutions range from simple personal tasks (e.g. how to turn on an appliance) to complex issues in business an ...

expertise stored as facts, rules, procedures or in similar structures like interactive

decision tree A decision tree is a decision support system, decision support recursive partitioning structure that uses a Tree (graph theory), tree-like Causal model, model of decisions and their possible consequences, including probability, chance event ou ...

s and flowcharts. *A ''model-driven DSS'' emphasizes access to and manipulation of a statistical, financial, optimization, or

simulation A simulation is an imitative representation of a process or system that could exist in the real world. In this broad sense, simulation can often be used interchangeably with model. Sometimes a clear distinction between the two terms is made, in ...

model. Model-driven DSS use data and parameters provided by users to assist decision makers in analyzing a situation; they are not necessarily data-intensive. Dicodess is an example of an

open-source model Open source is source code that is made freely available for possible modification and redistribution. Products include permission to use and view the source code, design documents, or content of the product. The open source model is a decentrali ...

-driven DSS generator. Using scope as the criterion, PowerPower, D. J. (1996). What is a DSS? The On-Line Executive Journal for Data-Intensive Decision Support 1(3). differentiates ''enterprise-wide DSS'' and ''desktop DSS''. An ''enterprise-wide DSS'' is linked to large data warehouses and serves many managers in the company. A ''desktop, single-user DSS'' is a small system that runs on an individual manager's PC.

Development frameworks

Similarly to other systems, DSS systems require a structured approach. Such a framework includes people, technology, and the development approach. The Early Framework of Decision Support System consists of four phases: * ''Intelligence'' – Searching for conditions that call for decision; * ''Design'' – Developing and analyzing possible alternative actions of solution; * ''Choice'' – Selecting a course of action among those; * ''Implementation'' – Adopting the selected course of action in decision situation. DSS technology levels (of hardware and software) may include: #The actual application that will be used by the user. This is the part of the application that allows the decision maker to make decisions in a particular problem area. The user can act upon that particular problem. #Generator contains Hardware/software environment that allows people to easily develop specific DSS applications. This level makes use of case tools or systems such as Crystal, Analytica and iThink. #Tools include lower level hardware/software. DSS generators including special languages, function libraries and linking modules An iterative developmental approach allows for the DSS to be changed and redesigned at various intervals. Once the system is designed, it will need to be tested and revised where necessary for the desired outcome.

Classification

There are several ways to classify DSS applications. Not every DSS fits neatly into one of the categories, but may be a mix of two or more architectures. Holsapple and WhinstonHolsapple, C.W., and A. B. Whinston. (1996). Decision Support Systems: A Knowledge-Based Approach. St. Paul: West Publishing. classify DSS into the following six frameworks: text-oriented DSS, database-oriented DSS, spreadsheet-oriented DSS, solver-oriented DSS, rule-oriented DSS, and compound DSS. A compound DSS is the most popular classification for a DSS; it is a hybrid system that includes two or more of the five basic structures. The support given by DSS can be separated into three distinct, interrelated categories: Personal Support, Group Support, and Organizational Support. DSS components may be classified as: # ''Inputs'': Factors, numbers, and characteristics to analyze # ''User knowledge and expertise:'' Inputs requiring manual analysis by the user # ''Outputs'': Transformed data from which DSS "decisions" are generated # ''Decisions'': Results generated by the DSS based on user criteria DSSs which perform selected

cognitive Cognition is the "mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses". It encompasses all aspects of intellectual functions and processes such as: perception, attention, thought, ...

decision-making functions and are based on

artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computer, computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. It is a field of re ...

intelligent agent In artificial intelligence, an intelligent agent is an entity that Machine perception, perceives its environment, takes actions autonomously to achieve goals, and may improve its performance through machine learning or by acquiring knowledge r ...

s technologies are called intelligent decision support systems (IDSS) The nascent field of decision engineering treats the decision itself as an engineered object, and applies engineering principles such as

design A design is the concept or proposal for an object, process, or system. The word ''design'' refers to something that is or has been intentionally created by a thinking agent, and is sometimes used to refer to the inherent nature of something ...

and

quality assurance Quality assurance (QA) is the term used in both manufacturing and service industries to describe the systematic efforts taken to assure that the product(s) delivered to customer(s) meet with the contractual and other agreed upon performance, design ...

to an explicit representation of the elements that make up a decision.

History

Applications

Components

Taxonomies

Development frameworks

Classification

See also

References

Further reading