climate change in China

Climate change is having major effects on the Chinese economy, society and the environment. The People's Republic of China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, through an energy infrastructure heavily focused on coal. China's per capita emissions are greater than the world and European Union averages but less than Australia, Canada, and the U.S. China recorded its hottest year on record in 2024, with an average temperature of . On the basis of cumulative emissions measured from 1751 through to 2017, China is responsible for 13% of global and about half of the United States' cumulative emissions. According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production alone accounts for 14% of historical global emissions.

A burgeoning construction industry and industrial manufacturing contribute heavily to carbon emissions. It has also been noted that higher-income countries have outsourced emissions-intensive industries to China.

China is suffering from the negative effects of global warming in agriculture, forestry and water resources, and is expected to continue to see increased impacts. China's government is taking some measures to increase renewable energy, and other decarbonization efforts, vowing to hit peak emissions before 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060 by adopting "more vigorous policies and measures." China's GHG emissions will likely peak in 2025 and return to 2022 levels by 2030. However, such pathway will still lead to a 3 degrees Celsius temperature rise.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Impacts on the natural environment

China has and will suffer some of the effects of global warming, including sea level rise, glacier retreat and air pollution.

Temperature and weather changes

There has also been an increased occurrence of climate-related disasters such as drought and flood, and the amplitude is growing. These events have grave consequences for productivity when they occur, and also create serious repercussions for the natural environment and infrastructure. This threatens the lives of billions and aggravates poverty.

Since the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) convened in 2012, China has prioritized its response to climate change.

A study published in 2017, using continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations from 1961 to 2010, found a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China, with the total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorms, hail and/or damaging wind decreasing about 50% from 1961 to 2010. The reduction in severe weather occurrences correlated strongly with the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.

China observed a ground average temperature increase of per decade from 1951 to 2017, exceeding the global rate. The average precipitation of China was in 2017, 1.8% more than the average precipitation of previous years. There was an annual increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide from 1990 to 2016. The annual mean concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide at Wanliguan Station were 404.4 ppm, 1907 ppb, and 329.7 ppb separately in 2016, slightly higher than the global mean concentration in 2016.

Sea level rise

The sea level rise was 3.5mm/year from 1980 to 2022 compared to the global average of 3.2mm/year.

China's first National Assessment of Global Climate Change, released in the 2000s by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), states that China already suffers from the environmental impacts of climate change: increase of surface and ocean temperature, rise of sea level. Temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau of China are rising four times faster than anywhere else (data from 2011). Rising sea level is an alarming trend because China has a very long and densely populated coastline, with some of the most economically developed cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou situated there. Chinese research has estimated that a one-meter rise in sea level would inundate 92,000 square kilometers of China's coast, thereby displacing 67 million people.

Climate change caused an increase in sea level, threatening to impair the functions of harbors.

Rising sea levels affect China's coastal land.  Cities along the coast such as Shanghai, only 3–5 meters above sea level leaves its 18 million residents vulnerable.  Sea levels in Victoria Harbor in Hong Kong have already risen .12 meters in the last 50 years.

Shanghai, China Population Density and Low Elevation Coastal Zones (5457913310).jpg, Yellow Sea
Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, v2, 2010 Shanghai, China (13874137394).jpg, Shanghai
Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, v2, 2010 Tianjin, China (13873741565).jpg, Tianjin and Yingkou

Ecosystems

Climate change increases forest belt limits and frequencies of pests and diseases, decreases frozen earth areas, and threatens to decrease glacial areas in northwest China. The vulnerability of ecosystems may increase due to future climate change. In the years 1970-2016 the occurrence of crop pest and diseases increased 4 times. 22% of that rise are due to climate change. By the year 2100 the occurrence will rise 243% under a low emission scenario and by 460% under a high emissions scenario. China is the biggest producer of wheat and rice in the world. It is in the second place in maize production.

China is home to 17,300 species of plants and animals: 667 vertebrates, ancient flora and fauna. Due to rising global temperatures, within the next century 20-30% of species will go extinct.

More than one fourth of China is covered by desert, which is growing due to desertification.  Desertification in China destroys farmland, biodiversity, and exacerbates poverty.

Water resources

Climate change decreased total water resources in North China while increasing total water resources in South China. There were more floods, drought, and extreme weather events. A major drought in 2001 resulted in China losing 6.4 billion U.S. dollars of crops as well as reducing water supply for “33 million rural people and 22 million livestock.” There may be a big impact on the spatial and temporal distribution in China's water resources, increasing extreme weather events and natural disasters.

Glacier melting in the Northern Region of China causes flooding in the upper parts of the Yangtze River. This ruins soil and arable land. The glacial melting causes lower parts of the Yangtze River to have lower volumes of water, also disrupting farming.

Furthermore, climate change will worsen the uneven distribution of water resources in China. Outstanding rises in temperature would exacerbate evapotranspiration, intensifying the risk of water shortage for agricultural production in the north. Although China's southern region has an abundance of rainfall, most of its water is lost due to flooding. As the Chinese government faces challenges managing its expanding population, increased demand for water to support the nation's economic activity and people will burden the government. In essence, a water shortage is indeed a large concern for the country.

Overfishing and rising ocean temperatures are killing the coral reefs in the South China Sea.  This lowers biodiversity, and negatively affects the fish market economy in China.

Impacts on people

Health impacts

Climate change has a significant impact on the health of Chinese people. The high temperature has caused health risks for some groups of people, such as older people (≥65 years old), outdoor workers, or people living in poverty. In 2019, each person who is older than 65 years had to endure extra 13 days of the heatwave, and 26,800 people died because of the heatwave in 2019.

In the future, the probability rate of malaria transmission will increase 39-140 percent because of temperature increase of 1-2 degrees Celsius in south China.

Economic impacts

According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report the country that will pay the highest financial cost if the temperature continue to rise is China. The impacts will include food insecurity, water scarcity, flooding, especially in coastal areas where most of the population lives due to higher than average sea level rise, and more powerful cyclones. At some point part of the country can face wet-bulb temperatures higher than humans and other mammals can tolerate more than six hours.

Agriculture

The negative effects on China's agriculture caused by climate change have appeared. There was an increase in agricultural production instability, severe damages caused by high temperature and drought, and lower production and quality in the prairie. In the near future, climate change may cause negative influences, causing a reduction of output in wheat, rice, and corn, and change the agricultural distribution of production. China is also dealing with agricultural issues due global demands of products such as soybeans. This global demand is causing coupled effects that stretch across oceans which in turn is affecting other countries.

Over the past 70 years, climate change seriously reduced China's food security. Although rising annual temperatures can accelerate crop growth and potentially increase food production, climate change in China has reduced sunshine duration and made rainfall more irregular, increasing the likelihood of climate-related disasters such as drought and flooding. Flooding decreased the yields of rice by 8% over the last 20 years. As China is the biggest food producer and importer in the world, what happens in the agricultural sector of China has an immediate effect on the global food system. China increased its grain self sufficiency by expanding agriculture areas to regions with less rain, giving them water with irrigation systems. Now those fields are at risk from water shortage while the irrigation systems demand huge amounts of water what cause depletion of groundwater in many regions. The government of China is trying to address the problem by different measures like reducing food waste, increasing international cooperation. But some of the measures like using more fertilizers produced from coal can exacerbate the problem.

Fishing Industry

Due to overfishing, pollution, global temperature increase, and change in pH to the world's oceans, the South China Sea is suffering from a lack in biodiversity among marine life. Historically, China was the world's largest capture fisheries and aquaculture producer, making the fish market a significant part of the Chinese economy. Due to the environmental impacts, coral reefs in the South China Sea are dying, decreasing the amount of marine life in the South China Sea. Fisheries are not able to catch the amount of fish that was once brought to the fish market, making that part of the economy suffer. The amount of fishing in China is unsustainable, and therefore declining. The fishing industry supplies a significant amount of jobs, exports, and domestic consumption, which will disappear if the fishing industry collapses.

Mitigation

In general, the climate policy of China can be described as "underpromise so that it can overdeliver". China sets for itself low climate targets that cannot surely prevent a 2 degree temperature rise, but it mostly achieves and even overachieves its targets. China wants to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. The paramount leader of China declared that his country will stop financing coal power plants abroad. China achieved 9 of its 15 climate targets in the Paris agreement before it was planned to happen. The climate policy of China can become more effective as a result of higher climate ambition of other countries and better cooperation with the USA. In March 2022 China increased its fossil fuel production "amid growing fears of global energy shortages and rising concerns of an economic slump". In 2024, some scientists suggested the CO₂ emissions from energy and cement may have peaked, but emissions of perfluorocarbons rose. Those gases are linked to industrial processes like production of aluminium, and non-stick cookware coatings. They account for a very little part of emissions currently, but they are thousands times stronger greenhouse gases than CO₂, stay in the atmosphere for tens of thousands years and their emissions rate increased by up to 70%.

The main climate targets of China as of 2022:
* Peak emissions before the year 2030.
* Reach net zero emissions before the year 2060.

Calculations in 2021 showed that for giving the world a 50% chance of avoiding a temperature rise of 2 degrees or more China should increase its climate commitments by 7%. For a 95% chance it should increase the commitments by 24%. For giving a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees China should increase its commitments by 41%.

In 2022, China issued its climate targets in the 14th Five-Year Plan. These include reducing the economy's energy intensity by 13.5%, reducing the intensity of the economy by 18%, increasing in the share of non-fossil energy to about 20%. The change is in comparison to the numbers for the year 2021. All three targets are to be achieved by 2025.

In the beginning of the year 2022 government-supported research said China will peak emissions in the year 2027 at 12.2Gt and reach net zero carbon emissions before 2060 if it will change its development model.

Renewable energy

Energy efficiency

A 2011 report by a project facilitated by World Resources Institute stated that the 11th five-year plan (2005 to 2010), in response to worsening energy intensity in the 2002-2005 period, set a goal of a 20% improvement of energy intensity. The report stated that this goal likely was achieved or nearly achieved. The next five-year plan set a goal of improving energy intensity by 16%.

China set itself a target to limit its primary energy consumption to 5 btce by 2020.

In 2022 China published a plan of energy conservation for the 14th five-year plan (2021 to 2025) with a target of cutting energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5% by the year 2025 in comparison to the level of 2020. The plan regards 17 different sectors in the economy. In some sectors 20% - 40% of the capacities are not meeting the standards they need to meet by 2025. This policy expects to benefit the biggest companies who have the possibility to reach the targets.

In the provinces of China, there are various projects held aiming to solve emissions reduction and energy-saving, which is a big step in tackling climate change. Beijing is developing in replacing traditional bulbs with energy-saving light bulbs. Provinces such as Rizhao and Dezhou are promoting solar energy in the building heating system. Besides, Tsinghua University launched a lead on low-carbon city development. The city is currently working with Tsinghua University to improve the urban environment by introducing renewable energy into industries and households.

China advances "nearly zero energy buildings" Such buildings can consume 70% less energy in very cold areas and 60% less in other regions. According to Jiang Wanrong (the vice-minister of housing and urban-rural development in China), 60% of the floor area in the public buildings of China was adjusted to the energy efficiency standards for buildings, as of December 2023. There are around 80 standards of this type in China.

Transport

Bicycles are common in China. However, in the last 40 years cars use has displaced bicycles, leading to deterioration of air quality and to traffic congestion. The Chinese government responded by introducing bicycle sharing systems and bike lanes. More than 360 Chinese cities have dockless bike-sharing systems that deploy nearly 20 million bicycles that travel an average of 47 million kilometres per day. According to the World Resources Institute report, dockless bike-sharing systems reduced China's GHG emissions by 4.8 million tonnes of annually.

China makes considerable efforts to expand and improve its public transportation network, what creates health benefits and have significant importance for emission reduction. According to official data, in 2023 the number of trips in urban public transportation increased by 27.7%.

Tianjin, with more than 13 million dwellers received the Sustainable Transport Award for the year 2024 due to its efforts to improve and expand non motorized and public transport, making it accessible. The policy of the city had an impact on policies at the regional and country level and received support from the World Bank (this is its biggest investment in this domain). According to the statement of the Institute for Transportation & Development policy which accorded the award, "Thus, the city's recent investments into sustainable mobility policy and infrastructure have the potential to serve as a model for the rest of China as the nation works towards achieving carbon neutrality before 2060."

Forests

In 2020 the forests of China held around 7.62 billion tonnes of carbon (which are equivalent to 28 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide). By 2100 the number could elevate to 19.59 billion tonnes of carbon. The forest coverage of the country grew from 10% of the overall territory in 1949 to 25% in 2024 and the green belt project contributed to the achievement.

Policies and legislation

Climate change has not been a priority to China until around 2008, when this issue was brought to a higher platform. Chinese state affairs operate as a central system, not a federal system. For example, the central government makes decisions and the local governments fulfill them. As a result, the local governments receive constraints and are measured by their performance from the central governments. Solving environmental issues such as climate change requires long-term investments in money, resources, and time. It is believed that these efforts will be detrimental to economic growth, which is of particular importance to the promotion of local government executives. This is why local governments have no engagement in addressing this issue.

In China's first NDC submission, key areas were identified for climate change adaptation

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