Claudia Rae Sahm (''

née The birth name is the name of the person given upon their birth. The term may be applied to the surname, the given name or to the entire name. Where births are required to be officially registered, the entire name entered onto a births registe ...

'' Foster) is an American

economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...

, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the

Board of Governors A board of directors is a governing body that supervises the activities of a business, a nonprofit organization, or a government agency. The powers, duties, and responsibilities of a board of directors are determined by government regulations ...

of the

Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve System (often shortened to the Federal Reserve, or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of ...

, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in

macroeconomics Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes regional, national, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output (econ ...

and household finance. She is best known for the development of the

Sahm rule In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle an ...

, a

Federal Reserve Economic Data Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) is a database maintained by the Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that has more than 816,000 economic time series from various sources. They cover banking, business/fiscal, consumer p ...

(FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time.

Education and career

In 1998, Sahm received a bachelor's degree in economics from

Denison University Denison University is a Private university, private liberal arts college in Granville, Ohio, United States. One of the earliest colleges established in the former Northwest Territory, Denison University was founded in 1831. It was first called ...

, where she also studied political science and German. From 1998 to 1999, Sahm was a

Fulbright Scholar The Fulbright Program, including the Fulbright–Hays Program, is one of several United States cultural exchange programs with the goal of improving intercultural relations, cultural diplomacy, and intercultural competence between the peopl ...

at the Technical University of Dresden, where she studied economic transitions in post-socialist countries. From 1999 to 2001, Sahm worked at the

Brookings Institution The Brookings Institution, often stylized as Brookings, is an American think tank that conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in economics (and tax policy), metropolitan policy, governance, foreign policy, global econo ...

as a research assistant. Sahm began her PhD at the

University of Michigan The University of Michigan (U-M, U of M, or Michigan) is a public university, public research university in Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States. Founded in 1817, it is the oldest institution of higher education in the state. The University of Mi ...

in 2001, guided by Matthew D. Shapiro and Miles Spencer Kimball, completing her thesis ''Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation'' in 2007. In 2007, Sahm began working at the

Federal Reserve Board of Governors The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, commonly known as the Federal Reserve Board, is the main governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It is charged with overseeing the Federal Reserve Banks and with helping implement the mo ...

as an economist, where her work was focused on examining

consumer spending Consumer spending is the total money spent on final goods and services by individuals and households. There are two components of consumer spending: induced consumption (which is affected by the level of income) and autonomous consumption (which ...

. Her first position was studying the impact of tax rebates. In 2013 she was promoted to Senior Economist, and in 2015 to Principal Economist, at the

. Sahm was a Senior Economist at the

Council of Economic Advisers The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is a United States agency within the Executive Office of the President established in 1946, which advises the president of the United States on economic policy. The CEA provides much of the empirical resea ...

for the

Obama administration Barack Obama's tenure as the 44th president of the United States began with his first inauguration on January 20, 2009, and ended on January 20, 2017. Obama, a Democrat from Illinois, took office following his victory over Republican nomine ...

, where she worked on macroeconomic developments and housing policy from 2015 to 2016. She studied the impact of unusual weather on economic data. She showed that people were less willing to take economic risks as they age. In September 2017 Sahm was promoted to Section Chief of the

in the Division of Consumer and Community Affairs. From October 2019 to September 2020, she was director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. In September 2020, Sahm joined

Bloomberg Opinion Bloomberg L.P. is an American privately-held financial, software, data, and media company headquartered in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. It was co-founded by Michael Bloomberg in 1981, with Thomas Secunda, Duncan MacMillan, Charles Ze ...

as a contributor and in October 2020, she joined

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...

as a Contributing Opinion Writer. As of 2022, Sahm is a senior fellow leading Macroeconomic Research at the Jain Family Institute. She is also a member of the

National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic co ...

Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. In April 2024, Sahm accepted the role of Chief Economist at New Century Advisors.

Research

Sahm conducts research in macroeconomics with a focus on business cycles, fiscal stimulus and consumer behavior. Her research has appeared in numerous FEDS notes, books, and major academic journals. Outside the academic audience Sahm is known for the

, also known as the "Sahm Recession Indicator":The Sahm rule tracks the unemployment rate to detect upcoming and current recessions.

Selected publications

* * * * * *

Other work

Sahm maintains the economics blog ''MacroMom'' and economics newsletter ''Stay-At-Home Macro''. Sahm campaigns for more diversity in economics. She petitioned the

American Economic Association The American Economic Association (AEA) is a learned society in the field of economics, with approximately 23,000 members. It publishes several peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Review, an ...

to remove sexist comments on the website Economics Job Market Rumors (EJMR). She is also known for her critiques of the culture of the economics profession, citing many specific examples of bullying and harassment she experienced, observed, or had reported to her by others, often directed at female and minority economists.

Personal life

Sahm was married to Patrick Sahm, whom she met at

, and with whom she has two children. She married health economist Colin Baker in 2020.

Awards

* 1998: Fulbright Association, Fulbright Research Grant * 2006:

Institute for Social Research Institute for Social Research may refer to: * Norwegian Institute for Social Research, a private research institute in Oslo, Norway * University of Frankfurt Institute for Social Research, a research institute in Frankfurt, Germany * University of ...

, Innovation in Social Research Award

References

External links

*
Claudia R. Sahm
at the

Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve System (often shortened to the Federal Reserve, or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of ...

Claudia R. Sahm
at

IDEAS/RePEc Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) is a collaborative effort of hundreds of volunteers in many countries to enhance the dissemination of research in economics. The heart of the project is a decentralized database of working papers, preprints, ...

Claudia R. Sahm
at AcademicTree {{DEFAULTSORT:Sahm, Claudia 20th-century births Living people American women economists 21st-century American economists Denison University alumni University of Michigan alumni Obama administration personnel 21st-century American women civil servants