2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) Presidential Election

The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election was held on 27 September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a three-year term.

Incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not run for re-election, amid record-low approval ratings following controversy over a slush fund scandal involving the party factions Seiwakai and Shisuikai, both of which disbanded in January 2024. Kishida's Kōchikai also disbanded. Approval ratings were also mired by the party's affiliations with the Unification Church.

The 2024 presidential election was the first since the abolition of most of the party's factions in the wake of the slush fund scandal, which led to commentators describing the election's outcome as unusually volatile and unpredictable. Nine candidates ran for the presidency, a record number. At the beginning of the official campaign period, Former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, former Minister of the Environment Shinjirō Koizumi and Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi emerged as the three top front-runners based on polling. Ishiba and Koizumi were described as the " centrists" of the election, while Takaichi was described as a "staunch conservative."

Ishiba narrowly defeated Takaichi in a runoff, and was confirmed by the Diet as the next Prime Minister four days later on 1 October. Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his past leadership bid failures as well as his prior unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet.

Election procedure

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party". In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan. In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots. If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected president.

As no candidate received a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff was held immediately between the top two candidates, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi. In a runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture. The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president. Ishiba received 215 votes to Takaichi's 194, securing Ishiba the spot as the next leader of the LDP.

Background

Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihide Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church

Following the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating, decreased. Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.

Slush fund scandal

In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entirety of Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal. Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later in January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.

Continued unpopularity and resignation

Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a ''Mainichi Shimbun'' poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.

Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition. Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this". ''Mainichi Shimbun'' reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.

Campaign

Prelude

Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8 July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run. On 30 June, the Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election. She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner. Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day. On 10 August, Kono again conveyed his desire to run to Taro Aso. He reportedly told Aso he would run with or without his support.

Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements". He indicated on 11 July that he would make a decision by August. Later on 21 July Ishiba said he would decide around the Obon holiday period (August 13–16). Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war. Ishiba declared his candidacy on 14 August, hours after Kishida's resignation.

On 2 July the ''Yukan Fuji'' reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff. While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency. Diet Member suggested Kishida be replaced by Koizumi on 12 July.

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July. Motegi later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election. On the same day, he stated he would make a decision by early September. Motegi will embark on a trip to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines on 28 July in an effort to boost his profile.

On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.

Takayuki Kobayashi indicated on 12 August that the party should "balance out" punishments against Abe faction members for the kickback scandal, arguing that removal from leadership has made on the ground activities challenging. LDP Upper House Member Shigeharu Aoyama indicated in a press conference that he would run for the Presidency. The same day Diet members Tatsuo Fukuda, Masanobu Ogura and Keitaro Ohno stated in an opinion piece that the election was "a big opportunity for a change in generation and appointing women", seemingly calling for Kishida to step aside.

Kishida declines and early campaign activities

On 14 August, Fumio Kishida announced that he would not seek a second term as President of the Liberal Democratic Party. This effectively made the race an "open field" for new candidates. Kishida was reportedly pressured by influential members of the party, such as Taro Aso, Masahito Moriyama and Yoshimasa Hayashi to not seek a second term. The announcement reportedly unsettled Japanese markets, which were already disturbed by a surprise rate increase by the Bank of Japan in late July. At a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on the same day, Kishida stated resigning was the "easiest way to clearly show that the LDP has changed". He also cited the slush funds scandal as a reason for stepping aside, believing it was the only way to take "responsibility" as party leader for losing trust from the public. He pledged to support whoever will be chosen by the party as a rank-and-file member, refusing to endorse a particular candidate, adding that he was withdrawing so that the party could have an "open contest to promote debate". Kishida's more than 1,000 days in power made him Japan's eighth longest-serving post-war prime minister.

Kishida's decision to not seek a second term made the leadership election "especially chaotic". Immediately after Kishida's announcement, several potential candidates were mentioned, among them being Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, Toshimitsu Motegi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi. Seiko Noda, Katsunobu Kato and Yoko Kamikawa were also considered potential contenders.

The night after the press conference, Toshimitsu Motegi met with Taro Aso, who said it would be difficult to support him. Early after Kishida's announcement, it was reported that it was unlikely he would back Motegi. The day after his announcement on 15 August, Kishida informed his cabinet ministers that they may start campaigning for LDP President as long as it doesn't affect their duties as ministers. That same day, Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayashi visited the Yasukuni Shrine on the 79th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito also said he was interested in running, after previously backing Kishida. Potential candidate Yukio Obuchi stated that she would support Saito over her faction boss Motegi. Yoshimasa Hayashi reportedly told fellow lawmakers on 16 August that he was keen on running. On 17 August, Yōko Kamikawa announced her candidacy in a tweet. She later stated that she was running to make Japan "an attractive country for all". That same day, several candidates were asked on their position on same-sex marriage. Kono stated he supported it, Ishiba, Saito, Kato and Kamikawa took a neutral stance, while Kobayashi and Takaichi stated they opposed it. Koizumi, Hayashi and Motegi did not give a response. By 17 August, it was reported that Hayashi and Kono had secured enough endorsements to declare their own candidacies. Upper House Diet member Hiroshi Yamada told reporters on 21 August that Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi had secured 20 endorsements, and she believed she would formally announce her candidacy next week. She had reportedly been struggling to get the adequate endorsements.

Early declarations

The day after Kishida's announcement, Kobayashi appeared to have already amassed 20 endorsements, and was preparing to announce his candidacy soon. He visited sites related to North Korea's 1977 abduction of Megumi Yokota on 17 August. Former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi became the first to formally announce his candidacy during a press conference on August 19, emphasizing the need to "reform" the party. On 23 August Kobayashi stated "We should proceed carefully and cautiously with optional separate surnames for married couples". That same day, House of Councillors member Shigeharu Aoyama declared his candidacy.

The same day, Katsunobu Kato said he had close to 20 endorsements. '' Yomiuri'' reported that Koizumi planned to formally announce his candidacy on August 30. The following day it was reported that Yoshimasa Hayashi was struggling to announce his own candidacy and amass his own endorsements. He originally planned to announce on August 27, but had to postpone in order to prioritize the government response to an imminent typhoon, in his capacity as Chief Cabinet Secretary. On 25 August, Kamikawa told reporters that she had secured more than 20 endorsements.

Shigeru Ishiba was in Taipei when the news of Kishida's not seeking another term broke. He stated that if he could receive 20 endorsements, he would run. He also said he'd be open to appointing Abe faction members to key posts if they're reelected. Ishiba announced his candidacy on 24 August in his home constituency of Tottori. He described his campaign as the "culmination of my 38 year political career". His fifth LDP presidential campaign, Ishiba said it would be his "last". At the event, he questioned whether the party should endorse candidates who received kickbacks at the next general election. A press conference was expected the following week.

Digital Minister Taro Kono announced his candidacy in a press conference held on 26 August in Tokyo. He became the first sitting Cabinet minister to announce. In his press conference, he stated he wanted to "move the country forward" as leader. Kono also acknowledged that his "record on reform" would be put to the test during the election. On economic policy, he said he would return to "fiscal austerity." Kono also said he would ask lawmakers receiving kickbacks to return the money. The day after Kono's press conference, Taro Aso told faction members that he would personally back Kono, but would allow members to support other candidates. Members of the dissolved Abe faction were reportedly frustrated with Ishiba's and Kono's questioning of support to members who received financial kickbacks. Kono announced on 31 August that he would leave the Aso faction if he became Prime Minister.

Kobayashi, Kono and Ishiba were dubbed "The Early Birds" by the Council on Foreign Relations for being the first to announce.

Field widens as campaign intensifies

On 27 August, it was reported that Takaichi had also been forced to postpone her campaign announcement to the following week due to a typhoon. The next day ''Sankei'' reported she would officially declare on 9 September. Hayashi was reportedly planning to formally declare his candidacy on 3 September. Meanwhile, Koizumi confirmed in a tweet that he would formally announce his campaign in a press conference on 6 September. On 30 August, former Birthrate Minister and former leadership candidate Seiko Noda said she would formally announce her candidacy once she gathers enough support.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced his campaign in a press conference on 3 September. Hayashi, who had experience as a cabinet minister in various capacities, advocated for "people-friendly politics" in his speech. He pledged to implement wage hikes, election reform, and regional revitalization.

Kobayashi and Ishiba clashed on taxes and reform. On 3 September Kobayashi stated he opposed any income tax increases, while Ishiba said he planned to increase taxation. The two also disagreed on the creation of a Ministry for Disaster Prevention; Ishiba supported it while Kobayashi argued it would create more unnecessary bureaucracy. The same day, Kobayashi met with Taro Aso.

Former Foreign Minister and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi entered the race on 4 September, promising not to raise taxes.

Kato confirmed he had 20 endorsements by 6 September and was expected to announce his campaign on 10 September. Noda was reportedly struggling to pick up 20 endorsements of her own.

On 6 September, former Environment Minister Shinjirō Koizumi, who had been considered a "rising star" of the LDP, officially declared his candidacy in the leadership election at a press conference. He pledged to introduce legislation that would legalize separate surnames for married couples, promising it would "be done within a year". Koizumi promised to dissolve the lower of house and call a general election "as soon as possible" if elected President and later Prime Minister. He proposed holding a national referendum to determine whether or not Article 9 of the Constitution should be amended. His press conference also focused on regulatory and political reform; Koizumi said he would seek an LDP without factional dynamics. Koizumi gave his first street speech the following day in Tokyo's Ginza.

Kono said on 6 September that a Constitutional amendment concerning Article 9 should include "collective self-defense rights" beyond clearly stating the rights of the Japan Self-Defense Forces. The previous day his campaign released a comprehensive policy vision, which included labor market reform, use of renewable energy, the creation of a digital safety net and lowering the age of candidacy to 18 years old.

On 9 September, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi announced her second campaign for the LDP leadership, becoming the first female candidate to officially declare their candidacy. The following day, former Health Minister Katsunobu Katō formally announced his campaign. That same day, former Internal Affairs Minister Seiko Noda announced she would not run in the election and endorsed Koizumi's candidacy. On 11 September, Foreign Affairs Minister Yōko Kamikawa announced her candidacy.

Front runners emerge

As the race began to start in full in mid-September, three candidates were largely talked about, primarily being given the breadth of media coverage; Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba, and Sanae Takaichi all were largely talked about. Other candidates, such as Taro Kono and Yōko Kamikawa also got limited attention.

Koizumi was damaged in a series of gaffes, such as his father stating he was not ready to be Prime Minister. He also made controversial statements on the issue of North Korean abductees, stating he'd meet with "Kim", referring to Kim Jong Un. Takaichi began to be looked upon more favorably by rank-and-file members.

In terms of base, Koizumi's was firmly rooted in Diet members, mainly due to Yoshihide Suga lending Koizumi support. He had secured roughly 50 Diet members, compared to the other two frontrunners, Ishiba and Takaichi, with just around 30. While Hayashi and Kobayashi had secured numbers in the 40s, they had since fallen behind the fray in public opinion polling. Motegi secured just over 30.

Ishiba practiced a strategy of consolidating national support, as he had been consistently ranked one of the most popular politicians in the country, but had burned bridges with much of the party establishment during the Abe cabinets. Takaichi mixed both of these strategies and consolidated lawmakers involved in the slush fund scandal which rocked the LDP earlier in the year, causing the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai to dissolve. However, she was still highly unpopular with most establishment figures. She gained serious momentum entering the campaign period, and began to lead in party member polls.

Election day and Ishiba's victory

The first round of the election was held on 27 September in which Takaichi received the majority of votes. Ishiba advanced to the run-off, coming in second place after receiving 154 votes against Takaichi's 181. Koizumi, the third front-runner of the election, failed to advance to the run-off as did the other remaining candidates. ''The Japan Times'' noted after the first round that the other six candidates had "failed to make headway" against the three front-runners: Ishiba, Takaichi and Koizumi.

Following a political funds scandal prior to the election, most of the official factions, including the one that had been led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, former Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, leadership candidate Motegi and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, were dissolved. For the run-off, Kono indicated his support for Takaichi. After Hayashi's defeat, Prime Minister Kishida reportedly whipped votes for Ishiba in the second round of voting after having endorsed Hayashi.

In the leadership election on 27 September 2024, Ishiba narrowly defeated Takaichi in a second-round runoff, winning a total of 215 votes (52.57%) from 189 parliamentary members and 26 prefectural chapters, making him the new LDP leader and prime minister-designate. Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his long history of failed leadership bids and his relative unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet. After his election, the Japanese stock market experienced a sudden drop in response to Ishiba's economic policies, which was named "Ishiba Shock".

Schedule

''Jiji'' reported on 21 July that the LDP would establish an election committee for the presidential election on 26 July. The 11-person committee is headed by Diet Member Ichiro Aisawa, and was reported to most likely determine the election date to be between September 20 to 30, with the two most likely dates being the 20th and 27th.

On 19 August, a date of 27 September was set for the election.

Timetable

Candidates

Declared

The following candidates have officially declared their candidacies for the leadership:

Supporters

Party regulations require at least 20 Diet members' support to run.

;Number of supporters by former factions

Declined

* Shigeharu Aoyama, Member of the House of Councillors (2016–present)
* Fumio Kishida, incumbent Prime Minister (2021–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2012–2017), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present)
* Seiko Noda, former Minister-in-charge of Measures against Declining Birthrate (2021–2022), former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2017–2018), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present) ''(endorsed Koizumi)''
* Yūko Obuchi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2014), Member of the House of Representatives (2000–present)
* Ken Saito, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2023–present), former Minister of Justice (2022–2023), former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2017–2018), Member of the House of Representatives (2009–present)
* Yoshihide Suga, former Prime Minister (2020–2021), former Chief Cabinet Secretary (2012–2020), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present), former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2006–2007) ''(endorsed Koizumi)''

Pre-election endorsements

Declined

Opinion polls

Polling

''(Figures in parentheses are approval ratings of Liberal Democratic Party supporters)''

Hypothetical polling

The following polls feature Fumio Kishida, who was then speculated to run for re-election for the Liberal Democratic party leadership before deciding against entering the race.

Preferred outcome

Results

Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures (First Round)

Aftermath

Following Ishiba's victory, it was described that he had planned on providing Koizumi a more prominent role in the LDP while Takaichi declined any cabinet positions in Ishiba's government. Ishiba would go on to appoint former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as vice president of the party, while promoting outgoing Vice President Taro Aso as a chief advisor, with Hiroshi Moriyama becoming secretary general of the party. The appointments were seen as Ishiba's effort to stabilize the party.

Ishiba was sworn-in as the 65th Prime Minister of Japan on 1 October and immediately formed his cabinet.

See also

* 2024 Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan presidential election

Notes

References

External links

Official website of the election

{{DEFAULTSORT:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election, 2024
2024 elections in Japan
2024 political party leadership elections
September 2024 in Japan
Political party leadership elections in Japan
2024 leadership election
Shigeru Ishiba