2023 Polish Parliamentary Election

Parliamentary elections were held in Poland on 15 October 2023 to elect members of the Sejm and Senate. A referendum containing four questions concerning economic and immigration policy of the government was held simultaneously.

In the previous 2019 Polish parliamentary election, the ruling right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) had held onto its majority in the Sejm with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki forming a second government. The PiS sought to win a third term which would be unprecedented in Polish history. The opposition, including the Civic Platform Party and others, secured a Senate majority. In the lead-up to the 2023 elections, opposition leader and former prime minister, Donald Tusk, led the Civic Coalition political alliance in opposition to the PiS.

The United Right alliance placed first for the third straight election and won a plurality of seats but fell short of a Sejm majority. The opposition, consisting of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left, achieved a combined total vote of 54%, managing to form a majority coalition government. In the Senate, the opposition electoral alliance Senate Pact 2023 won a plurality of the vote and a majority of seats. Voter turnout was 74.4%, the highest in contested elections and the highest since the fall of the communist Polish People's Republic, beating previous records set in 1989 and 2019.

Background

2019 Polish parliamentary election

The 2019 parliamentary election saw a record high turnout, with over 60% of registered electors participating. It also saw the centre-left, in the form of Lewica, entering the Sejm after four years on the outside looking in. Conversely, the far right united under the Konfederacja (Kon) banner to enter one of the two chambers of parliament for the first time since the 2005 elections.

Right-wing parties, coalesced around the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) within the United Right (ZP) alliance, won the highest percentage of votes ever received since the complete return to democracy in 1991, maintaining their majority in the Sejm, but losing it in the Senate. The PiS party president, Jarosław Kaczyński, thus saw his position as the country's strongman strengthened, despite occupying no governmental position. This result saw the second reelection of a majority government since the fall of the Eastern Bloc. Despite not defeating PiS, the main opposition party, the liberal Civic Platform (PO), itself within the Civic Coalition (KO) alliance, progressed in the senate, though without winning a majority of seats on its own. The opposition altogether did win a majority of seats in the senate, thanks to Lewica, the Polish Coalition (PSL) and independent candidates' gains.

One month after the vote, the incumbent Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, formed his second government. Its composition showed the so-called "moderate" right strengthened, which Morawiecki was part of, alongside a weakening of the "radical" right, led by the Justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro. This strategy was mainly to appeal to the more moderate electorate for the 2020 Polish presidential election. Morawiecki's government received the Sejm's confidence on 19 November with 237 votes for, 214 against and three abstentions.

2020 presidential election

The 2020 presidential election saw the reelection of incumbent president Andrzej Duda, a former member of Law and Justice. Originally planned in May, the elections were very affected by the then ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The government's proposal to maintain the election in May but only through postal votes launched a strong polemic, with the opposition denouncing the unequal campaigning capacities of the incumbent president compared to other candidates within the context of the lockdown and quarantine measures. The election was then postponed to late June following a compromise within the ruling coalition and the opposition's approval, partly thanks to the latter's control of the Senate.

Despite the pandemic, both rounds of voting saw higher turnouts, with Duda facing the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a member of Civic Platform. Duda beat Trzaskowski, gathering 51% of the votes against the latter's 49%. These results were the most closely fought presidential elections since the return of democracy.

Duda's victory allows PiS take advantage from his presidential veto in case of an opposition victory in the legislative elections, with the opposition needing a three-fifths majority, which currently amounts to 276 seats, to override one.

2023 Polish protests

In May 2023, a law previously passed by the Sejm with the votes of the governing parties came into force, which provides for the establishment of a commission that can, without a court order, exclude politicians from public office for a period of ten years if, in their opinion, the politician was influenced by Russian interests. According to the law, the commission must examine whether this applies to Polish government politicians from 2007 (after PiS' defeat in the 2007 election). According to critics, the law could have been used as an instrument to prohibit selected opposition politicians from taking part in the parliamentary elections. Polish media therefore spoke of a "Lex Tusk" – a law aimed at the opposition leader and former prime minister Donald Tusk (2007–2014), who could have been excluded from the parliamentary elections in October 2023 as the potentially most promising opposition candidate. PiS party circles repeatedly accused Tusk of making Poland dependent on energy imports from Russia during his term as head of government. The law drew strong criticism from the United States and the European Union, which expressed concern that the law jeopardized freedom and fairness in elections in Poland. President Duda then softened the law by introducing an amendment to the Sejm on 2 June 2023, which deprived the proposed commission of the previously planned right to impose a ban on political activity.

On 4 June 2023 (the anniversary of the first partially free elections in Poland in 1989) according to organizers, citing the city administration, half a million people took part in a "Great March for Democracy" organized by Tusk's Civic Platform in Warsaw to protest against the law. There were also protests with tens of thousands of participants in other cities, including Krakow, Szczecin and Częstochowa. The demonstration in Warsaw was joined by numerous civil rights movements, the Civic Platform spoke of the largest demonstration in Poland's history since the fall of communism in 1989. The protest march through the center of Warsaw was also led by the former Polish President Lech Wałęsa.

Electoral system

The President of Poland set the election day to be Sunday, 15 October 2023. This date was consistent with requirements posed in Article 98 Section 2 of the Polish Constitution, whereby the election is to take place within the final 30 days of the current term of Parliament (ending 11 November 2023). The vote ought to be held on a non-working day – a Sunday or a public holiday. Other possible dates included 22 October, 29 October, 1 November, 5 November and 11 November.

The process of election for the Sejm is through party-list proportional representation via the D'Hondt method in multi-seat constituencies, with a 5% threshold for single party (KW) and citizen committees (KWW) and an 8% threshold for coalitions (KKW). National minority committees, such as the German minority, can apply to be exempt from the nation-wide threshold, and in such case participate in the d'Hondt seat distribution within their constituency, in this specific case Opole, regardless of the national share of votes. Contrary to popular belief, minority committees are not guaranteed seats in the parliament.

Senators are elected by first-past-the-post method in 100 constituencies. Most of the opposition (Civic Coalition, New Left and Third Way) signed a so-called '' senate pact'', under which the parties agreed to enter one commonly accepted candidate in each district. This strategy has previously granted them 51 seats despite losing the Sejm.

Lists

Electoral committees registered in all constituencies

Electoral committees registered in more than one constituency

Electoral committees registered in a single constituency

Electoral committees with candidates only for the Senate

Electoral committees withdrawn before the election

Liberal Poland – Entrepreneurs' Strike has registered electoral lists in 17 constituencies, however on 13 October 2023 the committee has announced its intention to withdraw from the race. The committee's candidates appeared on the ballot, although votes for them were counted as invalid.

Electoral committees

Within the stipulated deadline for submitting electoral committees, 94 committees were applied for registration, of which 85 were registered: two coalitions, 40 political parties and 43 voters. 46 committees declared running for both the Sejm and the Senate, three only for the Sejm and 36 only for the Senate.

Campaign spending

Timeline

With the President setting the election date to be 15 October 2023, the following schedule was approved by the National Electoral Commission (PKW):

Opinion polls

Results

Sejm

PiS remained the largest party in the Sejm, but with about 35% of the vote, lost its majority and was unable to form a government. The three main opposition groups, Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left, took 54% of the votes, winning enough seats to allow them to take power. According to the final vote count by the National Electoral Commission, Law and Justice won 194 seats, the Civic Coalition 157, the Third Way 65, The Left 26, and the Confederation Liberty and Independence 18.

Although the German Minority Electoral Committee did win 5.37% of the vote in the Opole region in this election, they came 6th instead of the expected 5th place, falling 5,372 votes short. The Opole Voivodeship represents a total of 12 Sejm seats, and as the 5th place was taken by the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence, the last 12th seat, which had previously been won by German Minority, went to them instead. As a result, the German Minority Electoral Committee failed to win any parliamentary seat for the first time in 32 years.

By constituency

Senate

By constituency

Electorate demographics

Analysis

Turnout was 74.7% among women and 73.1% among men, with both giving similar levels of support for the government and two leading opposition parties, Civic Coalition and Third Way. Analysts identified a "youthquake" in which voting by Poland's young voters had a disproportionate impact on the election outcome. Turnout for ages 18–29 reached 68.8%, compared to 46.4% in the previous elections of 2019; among these voters, support for the ruling party fell to 14.9% from 26.3% four years earlier.

Aftermath

President Andrzej Duda later announced that he would hold consultations separately with every parliamentary party leader on 24 and 25 October. On 24 October, leaders of the Civic Coalition, the Polish People's Party, Poland 2050, and The Left stated they are ready to form a government with Donald Tusk as their candidate for prime minister. However, Duda had a maximum of 30 days to call parliament into session, especially if he wanted the ruling Law and Justice party to try to build a government. Opposition parties had called on Duda to allow them to form a government as soon as possible and respect the will of the voters. Representatives of Duda stated that he would do so within the timeframe that the Constitution demands and allows.

On 6 November, Duda named Law and Justice's incumbent prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki as his prime ministerial nominee. This move was criticized by the opposition, as the United Right was 40 seats short of a majority and no other bloc had agreed to join them for coalition talks.

On 10 November, Civic Coalition, Poland 2050, Polish People's Party and New Left signed a coalition agreement with Tusk as their candidate for prime minister. The opposition parties wanted to sign the agreement before the Sejm's first sitting in order to show that they stood ready to govern. Morawiecki was required to secure the Sejm's confidence within two weeks of being sworn in. Under the Constitution, if Morawiecki failed to do so, the Sejm would then designate its own candidate for prime minister, and Duda would be required to appoint that candidate before 11 December. Most commentators expected Morawiecki to come up short of the support needed to govern, as no other party willing to go into coalition with PiS would give it enough support to command the confidence of the Sejm.

On 13 November, the newly elected Sejm held its first session. Szymon Hołownia, leader of Poland 2050, was elected Marshal of the Sejm, winning over the incumbent Elżbieta Witek of PiS. Later that day, on the first meeting of the Senate, former Marshal of the Sejm Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska of Civic Coalition was elected Marshal of the Senate.

On 27 November, Mateusz Morawiecki was sworn in by President Duda for an unprecedented third term as Prime Minister. His cabinet had been mockingly dubbed the "Two Weeks Government" by Polish media due to its low likelihood of passing the confidence vote. Though the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence had been suggested by commentators as a potential coalition partner, Krzysztof Bosak, leader of the Confederation component National Movement, told Politico Europe that "there is no chance" of Confederation supporting a PiS government. Even had Confederation supported PiS, the United Right would have still been well short of a majority in the Sejm. Former prime minister Leszek Miller joked that the Morawiecki government would not survive even as long as a house fly, saying on Twitter that "Morawiecki's government will not even have time to pupate, let alone lay eggs."

On 11 December, Morawiecki's caretaker cabinet lost a vote of confidence in the Sejm by 190 votes to 266. Later that day, the Sejm nominated Tusk for prime minister, who was subsequently confirmed by 248 votes in favour and 201 against. Tusk's cabinet was sworn in on 13 December.

Notes

References

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