Cascadia subduction zone
The Cascadia subduction zone is a convergent plate boundary, about off the Pacific coast of North America, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ m ...
on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. The
megathrust earthquake
Megathrust earthquakes occur at convergent plate boundaries, where one tectonic plate is forced underneath another. The earthquakes are caused by slip along the thrust fault that forms the contact between the two plates. These interplate earthq ...
Vancouver Island
Vancouver Island is an island in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and part of the Canadian province of British Columbia. The island is in length, in width at its widest point, and in total area, while are of land. The island is the largest ...
, south along the
Pacific Northwest
The Pacific Northwest (PNW; ) is a geographic region in Western North America bounded by its coastal waters of the Pacific Ocean to the west and, loosely, by the Rocky Mountains to the east. Though no official boundary exists, the most common ...
coast as far as
northern California
Northern California (commonly shortened to NorCal) is a geocultural region that comprises the northern portion of the U.S. state of California, spanning the northernmost 48 of the state's List of counties in California, 58 counties. Northern Ca ...
. The plate slipped an average of along a fault rupture about long.
The earthquake caused a
tsunami
A tsunami ( ; from , ) is a series of waves in a water body caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean or a large lake. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and underwater explosions (including detonations, ...
which struck the west coast of North America and the coast of
Japan
Japan is an island country in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean off the northeast coast of the Asia, Asian mainland, it is bordered on the west by the Sea of Japan and extends from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea ...
. Japanese tsunami records, along with reconstructions of the wave moving across the ocean, put the earthquake at about 9:00 PM
Pacific Time
The Pacific Time Zone (PT) is a time zone encompassing parts of western Canada, the western United States, and western Mexico. Places in this zone observe standard time by subtracting eight hours from Coordinated Universal Time ( UTC−08:00). ...
on the evening of 26 January 1700.
Japanese records
The earthquake took place at about 21:00 PT on January 26, 1700 ( NS). Although there are no written records for the region from the time, the timing of the earthquake has been inferred from Japanese records of a tsunami that does not correlate with any other
Pacific Rim
The Pacific Rim comprises the lands around the rim of the Pacific Ocean. The '' Pacific Basin'' includes the Pacific Rim and the islands in the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Rim roughly overlaps with the geological Pacific Ring of Fire.
List ...
quake. The Japanese records exist primarily in the modern-day
Iwate Prefecture
is a Prefectures of Japan, prefecture of Japan located in the Tōhoku region of Honshu. It is the second-largest Japanese prefecture (behind Hokkaido) at , with a population of 1,165,886 (as of July 1, 2023). Iwate Prefecture borders Aomori Pre ...
Ōtsuchi
An is a large wooden war mallet used by the samurai class of feudal Japan
The first human inhabitants of the Japanese archipelago have been traced to the Paleolithic, around 38–39,000 years ago. The Jōmon period, named after its cord- ...
. The fact that the waves were recorded as striking Ōtsuchi and Kuwagasaki on the same day and hour helped researchers pinpoint the estimated date, time, and place of origin of the earthquake.M 9.0 - The 1700 Cascadia Earthquake /ref>
According to Japanese records, destructive waves hit towns along the Pacific Coast of Japan on the 8th and 9th days of the 12th month of
Genroku
was a after Jōkyō and before Hōei. The Genroku period spanned the years from September 1688 to March 1704. The reigning emperor was .Titsingh, Isaac. (1834). ''Annales des empereurs du japon'', p. 415.
The period was known for its peace and ...
12, which would be equivalent to January 27 and 28, 1700. Based on the damage reports in Japanese records, the maximum wave heights were estimated to be in the range of 2-5 meters. At Kuwagasaki, 13 houses were destroyed by flooding and 20 in a subsequent fire, with this representing about 10% of all buildings in the town. At Ōtsuchi, two buildings, two salt kilns, and some fields and paddies were damaged. At Miho, the village headman observed the waves and warned the villagers to flee to higher ground. No damage was reported there. At Nakaminato, where oceangoing ships unloaded their cargoes to smaller vessels to travel by river to
Edo
Edo (), also romanized as Jedo, Yedo or Yeddo, is the former name of Tokyo.
Edo, formerly a (castle town) centered on Edo Castle located in Musashi Province, became the '' de facto'' capital of Japan from 1603 as the seat of the Tokugawa shogu ...
(now Tokyo), a ship carrying 28 metric tons of rice was unable to enter the port due to high waves. Later that evening, a storm drove it onto a rocky shore, killing two sailors and destroying the cargo. In the Tanabe area, the waves destroyed wheat fields and rice paddies, flooded a storehouse, and ascended the moat of Tanabe Castle.
As no one in Japan had felt an earthquake before the waves struck, many writers were reluctant to call them a tsunami, with some referring to them as merely high tide or high waves. An observer at Kuwagasaki called it a tsunami while the village headman of Miho was puzzled after observing that the waves behaved like a tsunami but no earthquake had been felt in the area.
Scientific research
The most important clue linking the tsunami in Japan and the earthquake in the Pacific Northwest comes from studies of tree rings (
dendrochronology
Dendrochronology (or tree-ring dating) is the scientific method of chronological dating, dating tree rings (also called growth rings) to the exact year they were formed in a tree. As well as dating them, this can give data for dendroclimatology, ...
), which show that several "
ghost forest
Ghost forests are areas of dead trees in former forests, typically in coastal regions where Sea level rise, rising sea levels or tectonic shifts have altered the height of a land mass. Forests located near the coast or estuary, estuaries may also ...
Oregon
Oregon ( , ) is a U.S. state, state in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. It is a part of the Western U.S., with the Columbia River delineating much of Oregon's northern boundary with Washington (state), Washington, while t ...
and Washington, killed by lowering of coastal forests into the tidal zone by the earthquake, have outermost growth rings that formed in 1699, the last growing season before the tsunami. This includes both inland stands of trees, such as one on the Copalis River in Washington, and pockets of tree stumps that are now under the ocean surface and become exposed only at low tide."Jan. 26, 1700: How Scientists Know When The Last Big Earthquake Happened Here"
Oregon Public Broadcasting
Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) is the primary public broadcasting, public media organization for the U.S. state of Oregon as well as southern Washington (state), Washington. It provides news, information, and programming via television stati ...
, January 26, 2015.
Sediment layers in these locations demonstrate a pattern consistent with seismic and tsunami events around this time. Core samples from the ocean floor, as well as debris samples from some earthquake-induced
landslide
Landslides, also known as landslips, rockslips or rockslides, are several forms of mass wasting that may include a wide range of ground movements, such as rockfalls, mudflows, shallow or deep-seated slope failures and debris flows. Landslides ...
s in the Pacific Northwest, also support this timing of the event. Archaeological research in the region has uncovered evidence of several coastal villages having been flooded and abandoned around 1700.
Cultural research
The contemporary indigenous groups of Cascadia had no known written documentation like that of the Japanese tsunami, but numerous
oral tradition
Oral tradition, or oral lore, is a form of human communication in which knowledge, art, ideas and culture are received, preserved, and transmitted orally from one generation to another.Jan Vansina, Vansina, Jan: ''Oral Tradition as History'' (19 ...
s describing a great earthquake and inundation exist among indigenous coastal peoples from British Columbia to Northern California. These do not specify a date, and not all earthquake stories in the region can be ascribed to the 1700 quake; however, virtually all of the native peoples in the region have at least one traditional story of an event of unmatched destructive power.
Some of the stories contain temporal clues—such as a time estimate in
generation
A generation is all of the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively. It also is "the average period, generally considered to be about 20–30 years, during which children are born and grow up, become adults, and b ...
s since the event—which suggest a date range in the late 1600s or early 1700s, or which concur with the event's timing in other ways. For instance, the Huu-ay-aht legend of a large earthquake and ocean wave devastating their settlements at Pachena Bay places the event on a winter evening shortly after the village's residents had gone to sleep (consistent with the 9:00 PM reconstructed time). Every community on Pachena Bay was wiped out except for Masit on a mountainside above sea level. The only other Panchena Bay survivor was a young woman named Anacla aq sop, who happened to be staying that day at Kiix-in, located on the less-tsunami-impacted Barkley Sound.
Kwakwakaʼwakw
The Kwakwa̱ka̱ʼwakw (), also known as the Kwakiutl (; "Kwakʼwala-speaking peoples"), are an indigenous peoples of the Pacific Northwest Coast, indigenous group of the Pacific Northwest Coast, in southwestern Canada. Their total population, ...
(Kwakiutl) stories from the north end of Vancouver Island report a nighttime earthquake that caused virtually all houses in their community to collapse;Cowichan stories from Vancouver Island's inner coast speak of a nighttime earthquake, causing a
landslide
Landslides, also known as landslips, rockslips or rockslides, are several forms of mass wasting that may include a wide range of ground movements, such as rockfalls, mudflows, shallow or deep-seated slope failures and debris flows. Landslides ...
that buried an entire village.
Makah
The Makah (; Makah: ') are an Indigenous people of the Pacific Northwest Coast living in Washington, in the northwestern part of the continental United States. They are enrolled in the federally recognized Makah Indian Tribe of the Makah I ...
stories from Washington speak of a great night-time earthquake, of which the only survivors were those who immediately fled inland before the tsunami hit. The Quileute people in Washington have a story about a flood so powerful that villagers in their canoes were swept inland all the way to
Indian Country Today Media Network
''ICT'' (formerly known as ''Indian Country Today'') is a nonprofit, multimedia news platform that covers the Indigenous world, with a particular focus on American Indian, Alaska Native and First Nations communities across North America.
Fo ...
'', November 6, 2012. Oral history from southern
Oregon
Oregon ( , ) is a U.S. state, state in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. It is a part of the Western U.S., with the Columbia River delineating much of Oregon's northern boundary with Washington (state), Washington, while t ...
describes a large tidal wave that uprooted trees and swept away villages, with people tying their canoes to treetops and some canoes being torn loose and swept away.
Ethnographic
Ethnography is a branch of anthropology and the systematic study of individual cultures. It explores cultural phenomena from the point of view of the subject of the study. Ethnography is also a type of social research that involves examining ...
research has focused on a common regional pattern of art and
mythology
Myth is a genre of folklore consisting primarily of narratives that play a fundamental role in a society. For scholars, this is very different from the vernacular usage of the term "myth" that refers to a belief that is not true. Instead, the ...
The geological record reveals that great earthquakes with moment magnitude 8 or higher occur in the
Cascadia subduction zone
The Cascadia subduction zone is a convergent plate boundary, about off the Pacific coast of North America, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ m ...
about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by
tsunami
A tsunami ( ; from , ) is a series of waves in a water body caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean or a large lake. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and underwater explosions (including detonations, ...
s. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 570–590 years.
As seen in the 1700 quake, the
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake
On 26 December 2004, at 07:58:53 local time (UTC+07:00, UTC+7), a major earthquake with a magnitude of 9.2–9.3 struck with an epicenter, epicentre off the west coast of Aceh in northern Sumatra, Indonesia. The Submarine earthquake, undersea ...
, and the
2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami
On 11 March 2011, at 14:46:24 Japan Standard Time, JST (05:46:24 UTC), a 9.0–9.1 Submarine earthquake, undersea megathrust earthquake occurred in the Pacific Ocean, east of the Oshika Peninsula of the Tōhoku region. It lasted approx ...
, subduction zone earthquakes can cause large tsunamis, and many coastal areas in the region have prepared tsunami evacuation plans in anticipation of a possible future Cascadia earthquake. However, the major nearby cities, notably
Seattle
Seattle ( ) is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Washington and in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. With a population of 780,995 in 2024, it is the 18th-most populous city in the United States. The city is the cou ...
Vancouver
Vancouver is a major city in Western Canada, located in the Lower Mainland region of British Columbia. As the List of cities in British Columbia, most populous city in the province, the 2021 Canadian census recorded 662,248 people in the cit ...
Tacoma
Tacoma ( ) is the county seat of Pierce County, Washington, United States. A port city, it is situated along Washington's Puget Sound, southwest of Seattle, southwest of Bellevue, northeast of the state capital, Olympia, northwest of Mount ...
might be sheltered from the full brunt of a tsunami. These cities do have many vulnerable structures, especially bridges and unreinforced brick buildings; consequently, most of the damage to the cities would probably be from the earthquake itself. One expert asserts that buildings in Seattle are inadequate even to withstand an event of the size of the magnitude 7.9
1906 San Francisco earthquake
At 05:12 AM Pacific Time Zone, Pacific Standard Time on Wednesday, April 18, 1906, the coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake with an estimated Moment magnitude scale, moment magnitude of 7.9 and a maximum Mercalli inte ...
, let alone a more powerful one.
Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, stated, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of
Interstate 5
Interstate 5 (I-5) is the main north–south Interstate Highway System, Interstate Highway on the West Coast of the United States, running largely parallel to the Pacific coast of the contiguous U.S. from Mexico to Canada. It travels thro ...
will be toast."
Recent findings conclude that the Cascadia subduction zone is more complex and volatile than previously believed. In 2010, geologists predicted a 37% chance of a magnitude 8.2+ event within 50 years, and a 10% to 15% chance that the entire Cascadia subduction zone will rupture with a magnitude 9+ event within the same time frame. Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such an earthquake. The tsunami produced could reach heights of .
A 2004 study revealed the potential for relative mean
sea level rise
The sea level has been rising from the end of the last ice age, which was around 20,000 years ago. Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by , with an increase of per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had e ...
(caused by subsidence of coastal land) along the Cascadia subduction zone. It postulated that cities on the west coast of Vancouver Island, such as
Tofino
Tofino ( , Nuu-chah-nulth language, Nuu-chah-nulth: ''Načiks'') is a town of approximately 2,516 residents on the west coast of Vancouver Island in the Provinces and territories of Canada, Canadian province of British Columbia. The District ...
and
Ucluelet
Ucluelet (; colloquially known as Ukee) is a district municipality on the Ucluelet Peninsula, on the west coast of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. Ucluelet comes from ''Yuułuʔił'' which means "people of the safe harbour" in the ...
, are at risk for a subsidence relative to mean sea level.
The confirmation of their oral traditions about a great earthquake has led many aboriginal groups in the area to initiate projects to relocate their coastal communities to higher and safer ground in preparation for the predicted next earthquake. The Huu-ay-aht People have rebuilt their administration building on a high point in their territory; coastal residents are immediately evacuated to this building whenever a tsunami warning is issued, as an interim measure toward eventually relocating all residents to higher ground. The Quileute people secured a land grant from the US government in 2012 to move their settlement inland, both as protection from a future tsunami threat and because of more frequent flooding on the Quillayute River. The Shoalwater Bay Indian Tribe also sought federal funding to move their community uphill receiving a FEMA PDM grant to build the first vertical evacuation tower on their coast, completed near the Tokeland Marina in 2022.
In 2023, Washington scientists reported on a detailed study of a high-pressure and high-temperature seafloor seep, likely on the plate boundary, offshore of Oregon. The first seep found on the CSZ, it has been named ' Pythia's Oasis', and may play a role in the regulation of overpressures.
Some other subduction zones have major earthquakes every 100 to 200 years; the longer interval here may indicate unusually large stress buildup and subsequent unusually large earthquake slip.
Bridge of the Gods – Bonneville Slide
It was once conjectured that the Cascadia earthquake may also have been linked to the Bridge of the Gods – Bonneville Slide and the Tseax Cone eruption in British Columbia, Canada. However, 21st-century investigations using radiocarbon dating and dendrochronology date the Bonneville landslide around 1450.
See also
*
1585 Aleutian Islands earthquake
The 1585 Aleutian Islands earthquake is the presumed source of a tsunami along the Sanriku coast of Japan on 11 June 1585, known only from vague historical accounts and oral traditions. The event was initially misdated to 1586, which led to it b ...
List of earthquakes in the United States
The following is a list of notable earthquakes and tsunamis which had their epicenter in areas that are now part of the United States with the latter affecting areas of the United States. Those in ''italics'' were not part of the United States wh ...
Lists of earthquakes
Earthquakes are caused by movements within the Earth's crust and uppermost Earth's mantle, mantle. They range from weak events detectable only by seismometers, to sudden and violent events lasting many minutes which have caused some of the greate ...
*
Neskowin Ghost Forest
The Neskowin Ghost Forest is the remnants of a Sitka spruce forest on the Oregon Coast of the United States. The stumps were likely created when an earthquake of the Cascadia subduction zone abruptly lowered the trees, that were then covered by mu ...
Pacific Northwest Seismic Network
The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, or PNSN, collects and studies ground motions from about 400 seismometers in the U.S. states of Oregon and Washington. PNSN monitors volcanic and tectonic activity, gives advice and information to the public ...
United States Geological Survey
The United States Geological Survey (USGS), founded as the Geological Survey, is an agency of the U.S. Department of the Interior whose work spans the disciplines of biology, geography, geology, and hydrology. The agency was founded on Mar ...
Journal of Geophysical Research
The ''Journal of Geophysical Research'' is a peer-reviewed scientific journal. It is the flagship journal of the American Geophysical Union. It contains original research on the physical, chemical, and biological processes that contribute to the u ...
ScienceDaily
''ScienceDaily'' is an American website launched in 1995 that aggregates press releases and publishes lightly edited press releases (a practice called churnalism) about science, similar to Phys.org and EurekAlert!.
History
The site was f ...
United States Geological Survey
The United States Geological Survey (USGS), founded as the Geological Survey, is an agency of the U.S. Department of the Interior whose work spans the disciplines of biology, geography, geology, and hydrology. The agency was founded on Mar ...
The Oregonian
''The Oregonian'' is a daily newspaper based in Portland, Oregon, United States, owned by Advance Publications. It is the oldest continuously published newspaper on the West Coast of the United States, U.S. West Coast, founded as a weekly by Tho ...