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Statistical Interference
When two probability distributions overlap, statistical interference exists. Knowledge of the distributions can be used to determine the likelihood that one parameter exceeds another, and by how much. This technique can be used for geometric dimensioning of mechanical parts, determining when an applied load exceeds the strength of a structure, and in many other situations. This type of analysis can also be used to estimate the ''probability of failure'' or the ''failure rate''. Dimensional interference Mechanical parts are usually designed to fit precisely together. For example, if a shaft is designed to have a "sliding fit" in a hole, the shaft must be a little smaller than the hole. (Traditional tolerances may suggest that all dimensions fall within those intended tolerances. A process capability study of actual production, however, may reveal normal distributions with long tails.) Both the shaft and hole sizes will usually form normal distributions with some average (a ...
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Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is a Function (mathematics), function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of possible events for an Experiment (probability theory), experiment. It is a mathematical description of a Randomness, random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the Probability, probabilities of Event (probability theory), events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that fair coin, the coin is fair). More commonly, probability distributions are used to compare the relative occurrence of many different random values. Probability distributions can be defined in different ways and for discrete or for continuous variables. Distributions with special properties or for especially important applications are given specific names. Introduction A prob ...
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Interference Fit
An interference fit, also known as a pressed fit or friction fit, is a form of fastening between two tightfitting mating parts that produces a joint which is held together by friction after the parts are pushed together. Depending on the amount of interference, parts may be joined using a tap from a hammer or forced together using a hydraulic press. Critical components that must not sustain damage during joining may also be cooled significantly below room temperature to shrink one of the components before fitting. This method allows the components to be joined without force and produces a shrink fit interference when the component returns to normal temperature. Interference fits are commonly used with aircraft fasteners to improve the fatigue life of a joint. These fits, though applicable to shaft and hole assembly, are more often used for bearing-housing or bearing-shaft assembly. This is referred to as a 'press-in' mounting. Tightness of fit The tightness of fit is contr ...
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Survival Analysis
Survival analysis is a branch of statistics for analyzing the expected duration of time until one event occurs, such as death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. This topic is called reliability theory, reliability analysis or reliability engineering in engineering, duration analysis or duration modelling in economics, and event history analysis in sociology. Survival analysis attempts to answer certain questions, such as what is the proportion of a population which will survive past a certain time? Of those that survive, at what rate will they die or fail? Can multiple causes of death or failure be taken into account? How do particular circumstances or characteristics increase or decrease the probability of survival? To answer such questions, it is necessary to define "lifetime". In the case of biological survival, death is unambiguous, but for mechanical reliability, failure may not be well-defined, for there may well be mechanical systems in which failure ...
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Statistical Theory
The theory of statistics provides a basis for the whole range of techniques, in both study design and data analysis, that are used within applications of statistics. The theory covers approaches to statistical-decision problems and to statistical inference, and the actions and deductions that satisfy the basic principles stated for these different approaches. Within a given approach, statistical theory gives ways of comparing statistical procedures; it can find the best possible procedure within a given context for given statistical problems, or can provide guidance on the choice between alternative procedures. Apart from philosophical considerations about how to make statistical inferences and decisions, much of statistical theory consists of mathematical statistics, and is closely linked to probability theory, to utility theory, and to optimization. Scope Statistical theory provides an underlying rationale and provides a consistent basis for the choice of methodology used i ...
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Tolerance (engineering)
Engineering tolerance is the permissible limit or limits of variation in: # a physical dimension; # a measured value or physical property of a material, manufactured object, system, or service; # other measured values (such as temperature, humidity, etc.); # in engineering and safety, a physical distance or space (tolerance), as in a truck (lorry), train or boat under a bridge as well as a train in a tunnel (see structure gauge and loading gauge); # in mechanical engineering, the space between a bolt and a nut or a hole, etc. Dimensions, properties, or conditions may have some variation without significantly affecting functioning of systems, machines, structures, etc. A variation beyond the tolerance (for example, a temperature that is too hot or too cold) is said to be noncompliant, rejected, or exceeding the tolerance. Considerations when setting tolerances A primary concern is to determine how wide the tolerances may be without affecting other factors or the outcome of ...
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Specification
A specification often refers to a set of documented requirements to be satisfied by a material, design, product, or service. A specification is often a type of technical standard. There are different types of technical or engineering specifications (specs), and the term is used differently in different technical contexts. They often refer to particular documents, and/or particular information within them. The word ''specification'' is broadly defined as "to state explicitly or in detail" or "to be specific". A requirement specification is a documented requirement, or set of documented requirements, to be satisfied by a given material, design, product, service, etc. It is a common early part of engineering design and product development processes in many fields. A functional specification is a kind of requirement specification, and may show functional block diagrams. A design or product specification describes the features of the ''solutions'' for the Requirement Specification, ...
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Reliability Engineering
Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability is defined as the probability that a product, system, or service will perform its intended function adequately for a specified period of time, OR will operate in a defined environment without failure. Reliability is closely related to availability, which is typically described as the ability of a component or system to function at a specified moment or interval of time. The ''reliability function'' is theoretically defined as the probability of success. In practice, it is calculated using different techniques, and its value ranges between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates no probability of success while 1 indicates definite success. This probability is estimated from detailed (physics of failure) analysis, previous data sets, or through reliability testing and reliability modeling. Availability, testability, maintainability, and maintenance ...
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Process Capability
The process capability is a measurable property of a Process (engineering), process to the specification, expressed as a process capability index (e.g., Cpk or Cpm) or as a process performance index (e.g., Ppk or Ppm). The output of this measurement is often illustrated by a histogram and calculations that predict how many parts will be produced out of specification (OOS). Two parts of process capability are: # Measure the variability of the output of a process, and # Compare that variability with a proposed specification or product tolerance Capabilities The input of a process usually has at least one or more measurable characteristics that are used to specify outputs. These can be analyzed statistically; where the output data shows a normal distribution the process can be described by the process mean (average) and the standard deviation. A process needs to be established with appropriate process controls in place. A control chart analysis is used to determine whether the p ...
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Probabilistic Design
Probabilistic design is a discipline within engineering design. It deals primarily with the consideration and minimization of the effects of random variability upon the performance of an engineering system during the design phase. Typically, these effects studied and optimized are related to quality and reliability. It differs from the classical approach to design by assuming a small probability of failure instead of using the safety factor. Probabilistic design is used in a variety of different applications to assess the likelihood of failure. Disciplines which extensively use probabilistic design principles include product design, quality control, systems engineering, machine design, civil engineering (particularly useful in limit state design) and manufacturing. Objective and motivations When using a probabilistic approach to design, the designer no longer thinks of each variable as a single value or number. Instead, each variable is viewed as a continuous random variable wi ...
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Joint Probability Distribution
A joint or articulation (or articular surface) is the connection made between bones, ossicles, or other hard structures in the body which link an animal's skeletal system into a functional whole.Saladin, Ken. Anatomy & Physiology. 7th ed. McGraw-Hill Connect. Webp.274/ref> They are constructed to allow for different degrees and types of movement. Some joints, such as the knee, elbow, and shoulder, are self-lubricating, almost frictionless, and are able to withstand compression and maintain heavy loads while still executing smooth and precise movements. Other joints such as suture (joint), sutures between the bones of the skull permit very little movement (only during birth) in order to protect the brain and the sense organs. The connection between a tooth and the jawbone is also called a joint, and is described as a fibrous joint known as a gomphosis. Joints are classified both structurally and functionally. Joints play a vital role in the human body, contributing to movement, sta ...
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Interval Estimation
In statistics, interval estimation is the use of sample data to estimate an '' interval'' of possible values of a parameter of interest. This is in contrast to point estimation, which gives a single value. The most prevalent forms of interval estimation are '' confidence intervals'' (a frequentist method) and ''credible intervals'' (a Bayesian method). Less common forms include '' likelihood intervals,'' '' fiducial intervals,'' ''tolerance intervals,'' and ''prediction intervals''. For a non-statistical method, interval estimates can be deduced from fuzzy logic. Types Confidence intervals Confidence intervals are used to estimate the parameter of interest from a sampled data set, commonly the mean or standard deviation. A confidence interval states there is a 100γ% confidence that the parameter of interest is within a lower and upper bound. A common misconception of confidence intervals is 100γ% of the data set fits within or above/below the bounds, this is referred ...
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Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be deterministic in principle. The name comes from the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco, where the primary developer of the method, mathematician Stanisław Ulam, was inspired by his uncle's gambling habits. Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three distinct problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution. They can also be used to model phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs, such as calculating the risk of a nuclear power plant failure. Monte Carlo methods are often implemented using computer simulations, and they can provide approximate solutions to problems that are otherwise intractable or too complex to analyze mathematically. Monte Carlo methods are widely used in va ...
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