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Expectation Hypothesis
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates (whose graphical representation is known as the yield curve) is the proposition that the long-term rate is determined purely by current and future expected short-term rates, in such a way that the expected final value of wealth from investing in a sequence of short-term bonds equals the final value of wealth from investing in long-term bonds. This hypothesis assumes that the various maturities are perfect substitutes and suggests that the shape of the yield curve depends on market participants' expectations of future interest rates. These expected rates, along with an assumption that arbitrage opportunities will be minimal, is enough information to construct a complete yield curve. For example, if investors have an expectation of what 1-year interest rates will be next year, the 2-year interest rate can be calculated as the compounding of this year's interest rate by next year's interest rate. More generally, returns ...
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Term Structure Of Interest Rates
In finance, the yield curve is a graph which depicts how the yields on debt instruments - such as bonds - vary as a function of their years remaining to maturity. Typically, the graph's horizontal or x-axis is a time line of months or years remaining to maturity, with the shortest maturity on the left and progressively longer time periods on the right. The vertical or y-axis depicts the annualized yield to maturity. Those who issue and trade in forms of debt, such as loans and bonds, use yield curves to determine their value. Shifts in the shape and slope of the yield curve are thought to be related to investor expectations for the economy and interest rates. Ronald Melicher and Merle Welshans have identified several characteristics of a properly constructed yield curve. It should be based on a set of securities which have differing lengths of time to maturity, and all yields should be calculated as of the same point in time. All securities measured in the yield curve ...
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Yield Curve
In finance, the yield curve is a graph which depicts how the Yield to maturity, yields on debt instruments - such as bonds - vary as a function of their years remaining to Maturity (finance), maturity. Typically, the graph's horizontal or x-axis is a time line of months or years remaining to maturity, with the shortest maturity on the left and progressively longer time periods on the right. The vertical or y-axis depicts the annualized yield to maturity. Those who issue and trade in forms of debt, such as loans and bonds, use yield curves to determine their value. Shifts in the shape and slope of the yield curve are thought to be related to investor expectations for the economy and interest rates. Ronald Melicher and Merle Welshans have identified several characteristics of a properly constructed yield curve. It should be based on a set of securities which have differing lengths of time to maturity, and all yields should be calculated as of the same point in time. All se ...
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Risk-free Rate
The risk-free rate of return, usually shortened to the risk-free rate, is the rate of return of a hypothetical investment with scheduled payments over a fixed period of time that is assumed to meet all payment obligations. Since the risk-free rate can be obtained with no risk, any other investment having some risk will have to have a higher rate of return in order to induce any investors to hold it. In practice, to infer the risk-free interest rate in a particular currency, market participants often choose the yield to maturity on a risk-free bond issued by a government of the same currency whose risks of default are so low as to be negligible. For example, the rate of return on T-bills is sometimes seen as the risk-free rate of return in US dollars. Theoretical measurement As stated by Malcolm Kemp in chapter five of his book ''Market Consistency: Model Calibration in Imperfect Markets'', the risk-free rate means different things to different people and there is no consensus ...
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Filtration (probability Theory)
Filtration is a physical separation process that separates solid matter and fluid from a mixture using a ''filter medium'' that has a complex structure through which only the fluid can pass. Solid particles that cannot pass through the filter medium are described as ''oversize'' and the fluid that passes through is called the ''filtrate''. Oversize particles may form a filter cake on top of the filter and may also block the filter lattice, preventing the fluid phase from crossing the filter, known as ''blinding''. The size of the largest particles that can successfully pass through a filter is called the effective ''pore size'' of that filter. The separation of solid and fluid is imperfect; solids will be contaminated with some fluid and filtrate will contain fine particles (depending on the pore size, filter thickness and biological activity). Filtration occurs both in nature and in engineered systems; there are biological, geological, and industrial forms. Filtration is also ...
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Coupon (bond)
In finance, a coupon is the interest payment received by a bondholder from the date of issuance until the date of maturity of a bond. Coupons are normally described in terms of the "coupon rate", which is calculated by adding the sum of coupons paid per year and dividing it by the bond's face value. For example, if a bond has a face value of $1,000 and a coupon rate of 5%, then it pays total coupons of $50 per year. Typically, this will consist of two semi-annual payments of $25 each. History The origin of the term "coupon" is that bonds were historically issued in the form of bearer certificates. Physical possession of the certificate was (deemed) proof of ownership. Several coupons, one for each scheduled interest payment, were printed on the certificate. At the date the coupon was due, the owner would detach the coupon and present it for payment (an act called "clipping the coupon"). The certificate often also contained a document called a ''talon'', which (when the origin ...
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Zero-coupon Bond
A zero coupon bond (also discount bond or deep discount bond) is a bond in which the face value is repaid at the time of maturity. Unlike regular bonds, it does not make periodic interest payments or have so-called coupons, hence the term zero-coupon bond. When the bond reaches maturity, its investor receives its par (or face) value. Examples of zero-coupon bonds include US Treasury bills, US savings bonds, long-term zero-coupon bonds, and any type of coupon bond that has been stripped of its coupons. Zero coupon and deep discount bonds are terms that are used interchangeably. In contrast, an investor who has a regular bond receives income from coupon payments, which are made semi-annually or annually. The investor also receives the principal or face value of the investment when the bond matures. Some zero coupon bonds are inflation indexed, and the amount of money that will be paid to the bond holder is calculated to have a set amount of purchasing power, rather than a ...
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Interest Rate Risk
In finance and economics, interest is payment from a borrower or deposit-taking financial institution to a lender or depositor of an amount above repayment of the principal sum (that is, the amount borrowed), at a particular rate. It is distinct from a fee which the borrower may pay the lender or some third party. It is also distinct from dividend which is paid by a company to its shareholders (owners) from its profit or reserve, but not at a particular rate decided beforehand, rather on a pro rata basis as a share in the reward gained by risk taking entrepreneurs when the revenue earned exceeds the total costs. For example, a customer would usually pay interest to borrow from a bank, so they pay the bank an amount which is more than the amount they borrowed; or a customer may earn interest on their savings, and so they may withdraw more than they originally deposited. In the case of savings, the customer is the lender, and the bank plays the role of the borrower. Interes ...
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Reinvestment Risk
Reinvestment risk is a form of financial risk. It is primarily associated with fixed income securities (including bonds), in the form of early redemption risk and coupon reinvestment risk. Early redemption One form of reinvestment risk is the possibility that the cash flows from an investment might somehow be cancelled or stopped before its stated maturity date. This could happen if the issuer has the right to redeem (or "call") a fixed income security before its contractual maturity date. In that case, the investor might not be able to find a new investment which is as attractive as the security being redeemed. Mortgage loans typically include a prepayment option, which permits the borrower to repay a portion or all of the loan before scheduled maturity. This creates reinvestment risk for lenders and mortgage-backed securities holders. Early termination of the loan can also occur when the borrower sells the property, refinances the loan or defaults. In each case, the lender ...
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Monetary Policy
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to control either the interest rate payable for very short-term borrowing (borrowing by banks from each other to meet their short-term needs) or the money supply, often as an attempt to reduce inflation or the interest rate, to ensure price stability and general trust of the value and stability of the nation's currency. Monetary policy is a modification of the supply of money, i.e. "printing" more money, or decreasing the money supply by changing interest rates or removing excess reserves. This is in contrast to fiscal policy, which relies on taxation, government spending, and government borrowing as methods for a government to manage business cycle phenomena such as recessions. Further purposes of a monetary policy are usually to contribute to the stability of gross domestic product, to achieve and maintain low unemployment, and to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. ...
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Vector Autoregression
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a statistical model used to capture the relationship between multiple quantities as they change over time. VAR is a type of stochastic process model. VAR models generalize the single-variable (univariate) autoregressive model by allowing for multivariate time series. VAR models are often used in economics and the natural sciences. Like the autoregressive model, each variable has an equation modelling its evolution over time. This equation includes the variable's lagged (past) values, the lagged values of the other variables in the model, and an error term. VAR models do not require as much knowledge about the forces influencing a variable as do structural models with simultaneous equations. The only prior knowledge required is a list of variables which can be hypothesized to affect each other over time. Specification Definition A VAR model describes the evolution of a set of ''k'' variables, called ''endogenous variables'', over time. Each pe ...
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Economics Curves
Economics () is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interactions of economic agents and how economies work. Microeconomics analyzes what's viewed as basic elements in the economy, including individual agents and markets, their interactions, and the outcomes of interactions. Individual agents may include, for example, households, firms, buyers, and sellers. Macroeconomics analyzes the economy as a system where production, consumption, saving, and investment interact, and factors affecting it: employment of the resources of labour, capital, and land, currency inflation, economic growth, and public policies that have impact on these elements. Other broad distinctions within economics include those between positive economics, describing "what is", and normative economics, advocating "what ought to be"; between economic theory and applied economics; between rational ...
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Finance Theories
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitability a ...
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