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Credible Interval
In Bayesian statistics, a credible interval is an interval within which an unobserved parameter value falls with a particular probability. It is an interval in the domain of a posterior probability distribution or a predictive distribution. The generalisation to multivariate problems is the credible region. Credible intervals are analogous to confidence intervals and confidence regions in frequentist statistics, although they differ on a philosophical basis: Bayesian intervals treat their bounds as fixed and the estimated parameter as a random variable, whereas frequentist confidence intervals treat their bounds as random variables and the parameter as a fixed value. Also, Bayesian credible intervals use (and indeed, require) knowledge of the situation-specific prior distribution, while the frequentist confidence intervals do not. For example, in an experiment that determines the distribution of possible values of the parameter \mu, if the subjective probability that \mu lies ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Bayesian Statistics
Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a ''degree of belief'' in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials. Bayesian statistical methods use Bayes' theorem to compute and update probabilities after obtaining new data. Bayes' theorem describes the conditional probability of an event based on data as well as prior information or beliefs about the event or conditions related to the event. For example, in Bayesian inference, Bayes' theorem can be used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution or statistical model. Since Bayesian statistics treats pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Maximum A Posteriori
In Bayesian statistics, a maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimate is an estimate of an unknown quantity, that equals the mode of the posterior distribution. The MAP can be used to obtain a point estimate of an unobserved quantity on the basis of empirical data. It is closely related to the method of maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, but employs an augmented optimization objective which incorporates a prior distribution (that quantifies the additional information available through prior knowledge of a related event) over the quantity one wants to estimate. MAP estimation can therefore be seen as a regularization of maximum likelihood estimation. Description Assume that we want to estimate an unobserved population parameter \theta on the basis of observations x. Let f be the sampling distribution of x, so that f(x\mid\theta) is the probability of x when the underlying population parameter is \theta. Then the function: :\theta \mapsto f(x \mid \theta) \! is known a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Jeffreys' Prior
In Bayesian probability, the Jeffreys prior, named after Sir Harold Jeffreys, is a non-informative (objective) prior distribution for a parameter space; its density function is proportional to the square root of the determinant of the Fisher information matrix: : p\left(\vec\theta\right) \propto \sqrt.\, It has the key feature that it is invariant under a change of coordinates for the parameter vector \vec\theta. That is, the relative probability assigned to a volume of a probability space using a Jeffreys prior will be the same regardless of the parameterization used to define the Jeffreys prior. This makes it of special interest for use with ''scale parameters''. Reparameterization One-parameter case If \theta and \varphi are two possible parametrizations of a statistical model, and \theta is a continuously differentiable function of \varphi, we say that the prior p_\theta(\theta) is "invariant" under a reparametrization if :p_\varphi(\varphi) = p_\theta(\theta) \left, \frac ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Scale Parameter
In probability theory and statistics, a scale parameter is a special kind of numerical parameter of a parametric family of probability distributions. The larger the scale parameter, the more spread out the distribution. Definition If a family of probability distributions is such that there is a parameter ''s'' (and other parameters ''θ'') for which the cumulative distribution function satisfies :F(x;s,\theta) = F(x/s;1,\theta), \! then ''s'' is called a scale parameter, since its value determines the "scale" or statistical dispersion of the probability distribution. If ''s'' is large, then the distribution will be more spread out; if ''s'' is small then it will be more concentrated. If the probability density exists for all values of the complete parameter set, then the density (as a function of the scale parameter only) satisfies :f_s(x) = f(x/s)/s, \! where ''f'' is the density of a standardized version of the density, i.e. f(x) \equiv f_(x). An estimator of a scale p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Location Parameter
In geography, location or place are used to denote a region (point, line, or area) on Earth's surface or elsewhere. The term ''location'' generally implies a higher degree of certainty than ''place'', the latter often indicating an entity with an ambiguous boundary, relying more on human or social attributes of place identity and sense of place than on geometry. Types Locality A locality, settlement, or populated place is likely to have a well-defined name but a boundary that is not well defined varies by context. London, for instance, has a legal boundary, but this is unlikely to completely match with general usage. An area within a town, such as Covent Garden in London, also almost always has some ambiguity as to its extent. In geography, location is considered to be more precise than "place". Relative location A relative location, or situation, is described as a displacement from another site. An example is "3 miles northwest of Seattle". Absolute location An absolute lo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Sufficient Statistic
In statistics, a statistic is ''sufficient'' with respect to a statistical model and its associated unknown parameter if "no other statistic that can be calculated from the same sample provides any additional information as to the value of the parameter". In particular, a statistic is sufficient for a family of probability distributions if the sample from which it is calculated gives no additional information than the statistic, as to which of those probability distributions is the sampling distribution. A related concept is that of linear sufficiency, which is weaker than ''sufficiency'' but can be applied in some cases where there is no sufficient statistic, although it is restricted to linear estimators. The Kolmogorov structure function deals with individual finite data; the related notion there is the algorithmic sufficient statistic. The concept is due to Sir Ronald Fisher in 1920. Stephen Stigler noted in 1973 that the concept of sufficiency had fallen out of favor in des ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Nuisance Parameter
Nuisance (from archaic ''nocence'', through Fr. ''noisance'', ''nuisance'', from Lat. ''nocere'', "to hurt") is a common law tort. It means that which causes offence, annoyance, trouble or injury. A nuisance can be either public (also "common") or private. A public nuisance was defined by English scholar Sir James Fitzjames Stephen as, "an act not warranted by law, or an omission to discharge a legal duty, which act or omission obstructs or causes inconvenience or damage to the public in the exercise of rights common to all Her Majesty's subjects". ''Private nuisance'' is the interference with the right of specific people. Nuisance is one of the oldest causes of action known to the common law, with cases framed in nuisance going back almost to the beginning of recorded case law. Nuisance signifies that the "right of quiet enjoyment" is being disrupted to such a degree that a tort is being committed. Definition Under the common law, persons in possession of real property (lan ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo
In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprise a class of algorithms for sampling from a probability distribution. By constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution, one can obtain a sample of the desired distribution by recording states from the chain. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Various algorithms exist for constructing chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Application domains MCMC methods are primarily used for calculating numerical approximations of multi-dimensional integrals, for example in Bayesian statistics, computational physics, computational biology and computational linguistics. In Bayesian statistics, the recent development of MCMC methods has made it possible to compute large hierarchical models that require integrations over hundreds to thousands of unknown parameters. In rare even ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Decision Theory
Decision theory (or the theory of choice; not to be confused with choice theory) is a branch of applied probability theory concerned with the theory of making decisions based on assigning probabilities to various factors and assigning numerical consequences to the outcome. There are three branches of decision theory: # Normative decision theory: Concerned with the identification of optimal decisions, where optimality is often determined by considering an ideal decision-maker who is able to calculate with perfect accuracy and is in some sense fully rational. # Prescriptive decision theory: Concerned with describing observed behaviors through the use of conceptual models, under the assumption that those making the decisions are behaving under some consistent rules. # Descriptive decision theory: Analyzes how individuals actually make the decisions that they do. Decision theory is closely related to the field of game theory and is an interdisciplinary topic, studied by ec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Mean (statistics)
There are several kinds of mean in mathematics, especially in statistics. Each mean serves to summarize a given group of data, often to better understand the overall value (magnitude and sign) of a given data set. For a data set, the ''arithmetic mean'', also known as "arithmetic average", is a measure of central tendency of a finite set of numbers: specifically, the sum of the values divided by the number of values. The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers ''x''1, ''x''2, ..., x''n'' is typically denoted using an overhead bar, \bar. If the data set were based on a series of observations obtained by sampling from a statistical population, the arithmetic mean is the ''sample mean'' (\bar) to distinguish it from the mean, or expected value, of the underlying distribution, the ''population mean'' (denoted \mu or \mu_x).Underhill, L.G.; Bradfield d. (1998) ''Introstat'', Juta and Company Ltd.p. 181/ref> Outside probability and statistics, a wide range of other notions of mean ar ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Median (statistics)
In statistics and probability theory, the median is the value separating the higher half from the lower half of a data sample, a population, or a probability distribution. For a data set, it may be thought of as "the middle" value. The basic feature of the median in describing data compared to the mean (often simply described as the "average") is that it is not skewed by a small proportion of extremely large or small values, and therefore provides a better representation of a "typical" value. Median income, for example, may be a better way to suggest what a "typical" income is, because income distribution can be very skewed. The median is of central importance in robust statistics, as it is the most resistant statistic, having a breakdown point of 50%: so long as no more than half the data are contaminated, the median is not an arbitrarily large or small result. Finite data set of numbers The median of a finite list of numbers is the "middle" number, when those numbers are li ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Mode (statistics)
The mode is the value that appears most often in a set of data values. If is a discrete random variable, the mode is the value (i.e, ) at which the probability mass function takes its maximum value. In other words, it is the value that is most likely to be sampled. Like the statistical mean and median, the mode is a way of expressing, in a (usually) single number, important information about a random variable or a population. The numerical value of the mode is the same as that of the mean and median in a normal distribution, and it may be very different in highly skewed distributions. The mode is not necessarily unique to a given discrete distribution, since the probability mass function may take the same maximum value at several points , , etc. The most extreme case occurs in uniform distributions, where all values occur equally frequently. When the probability density function of a continuous distribution has multiple local maxima it is common to refer to all of the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |