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Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is an informal fallacy which is committed when differences in data are ignored, but similarities are overemphasized. From this reasoning, a false conclusion is inferred. This fallacy is the philosophical or rhetorical application of the multiple comparisons problem (in statistics) and apophenia (in cognitive psychology). It is related to the clustering illusion, which is the tendency in human cognition to interpret patterns where none actually exist. The name comes from a metaphor about a person from Texas who fires a gun at the side of a barn, then paints a shooting target centered on the tightest cluster of shots and claims to be a sharpshooter. Structure The Texas sharpshooter fallacy often arises when a person has a large amount of data at their disposal but only focuses on a small subset of that data. Some factor other than the one attributed may give all the elements in that subset some kind of common property (or pair of common properties, w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Informal Fallacy
Informal fallacies are a type of incorrect argument in natural language. The source of the error is not just due to the ''form'' of the argument, as is the case for formal fallacies, but can also be due to their ''content'' and ''context''. Fallacies, despite being incorrect, usually ''appear'' to be correct and thereby can seduce people into accepting and using them. These misleading appearances are often connected to various aspects of natural language, such as ambiguous or vague expressions, or the assumption of implicit premises instead of making them explicit. Traditionally, a great number of informal fallacies have been identified, including the fallacy of equivocation, the fallacy of amphiboly, the Fallacy of composition, fallacies of composition and Fallacy of division, division, the false dilemma, the fallacy of begging the question, the ad hominem fallacy and the appeal to ignorance. There is no general agreement as to how the various fallacies are to be grouped into cate ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hypothesis Testing
A statistical hypothesis test is a method of statistical inference used to decide whether the data provide sufficient evidence to reject a particular hypothesis. A statistical hypothesis test typically involves a calculation of a test statistic. Then a decision is made, either by comparing the test statistic to a critical value or equivalently by evaluating a ''p''-value computed from the test statistic. Roughly 100 specialized statistical tests are in use and noteworthy. History While hypothesis testing was popularized early in the 20th century, early forms were used in the 1700s. The first use is credited to John Arbuthnot (1710), followed by Pierre-Simon Laplace (1770s), in analyzing the human sex ratio at birth; see . Choice of null hypothesis Paul Meehl has argued that the epistemological importance of the choice of null hypothesis has gone largely unacknowledged. When the null hypothesis is predicted by theory, a more precise experiment will be a more severe test of t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Metaphors Referring To War And Violence
A metaphor is a figure of speech that, for rhetorical effect, directly refers to one thing by mentioning another. It may provide, or obscure, clarity or identify hidden similarities between two different ideas. Metaphors are usually meant to create a likeness or an analogy. Analysts group metaphors with other types of figurative language, such as antithesis, hyperbole, metonymy, and simile. According to Grammarly, "Figurative language examples include similes, metaphors, personification, hyperbole, allusions, and idioms." One of the most commonly cited examples of a metaphor in English literature comes from the "All the world's a stage" monologue from ''As You Like It'': All the world's a stage, And all the men and women merely players; They have their exits and their entrances And one man in his time plays many parts, His Acts being seven ages. At first, the infant... :—William Shakespeare, ''As You Like It'', 2/7 This quotation expresses a metaphor because the world is n ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Causal Fallacies
The questionable cause—also known as causal fallacy, false cause, or ''non causa pro causa'' ("non-cause for cause" in Latin)—is a category of informal fallacies in which the cause or causes is/are incorrectly identified. In other words, it is a fallacy of reaching a conclusion that one thing caused another, simply because they are regularly associated. Questionable cause can be logically reduced to: "A is regularly associated with B; therefore, A causes B." For example: "Every time I score an A on the test its a sunny day. Therefore the sunny day causes me to score well on the test." Here is the example the two events may coincide or correlate, but have no causal connection. Fallacies of questionable cause include: * Circular cause and consequence * Correlation implies causation (''cum hoc, ergo propter hoc'') ** Third-cause fallacy ** Wrong direction * Fallacy of the single cause * ''Post hoc ergo propter hoc'' * Observational interpretation fallacy * Regression fallacy ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Nostradamus
Michel de Nostredame (December 1503 – July 1566), usually Latinisation of names, Latinised as Nostradamus, was a French Astrology, astrologer, apothecary, physician, and reputed Oracle, seer, who is best known for his book ''Les Prophéties'' (published in 1555), a collection of 942 poetic quatrains allegedly predicting future events. Nostradamus's father's family had originally been Jewish, but had converted to Catholic Christianity a generation before Nostradamus was born. He studied at the University of Avignon, but was forced to leave after just over a year when the university closed due to an outbreak of the Bubonic plague, plague. He worked as an apothecary for several years before entering the University of Montpellier, hoping to earn a doctorate, but was almost immediately expelled after his work as an apothecary (a manual trade forbidden by university statutes) was discovered. He first married in 1531, but his wife and two children died in 1534 during another plag ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Quatrain
A quatrain is a type of stanza, or a complete poem, consisting of four Line (poetry), lines. Existing in a variety of forms, the quatrain appears in poems from the poetic traditions of various ancient civilizations including Persia, Ancient India, Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, and Classical Chinese poetry forms, China, and continues into the 21st century, where it is seen in works published in many languages. This form of poetry has been continually popular in Iran since the medieval period, as Ruba'is form; an important faction of the vast repertoire of Persian language, Persian poetry, with famous poets such as Omar Khayyam and Mahsati Ganjavi of Seljuk Persia writing poetry only in this format. Michel de Nostredame (Nostradamus) used the quatrain form to deliver his famous "Les Propheties, prophecies" in the 16th century. There are fifteen possible rhyme schemes, but the most traditional and common are Chain rhyme, ABAA, Monorhyme, AAAA, Rhyme scheme, ABAB, and Enclosed rhym ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Multiple Comparisons Problem
Multiple comparisons, multiplicity or multiple testing problem occurs in statistics when one considers a set of statistical inferences simultaneously or estimates a subset of parameters selected based on the observed values. The larger the number of inferences made, the more likely erroneous inferences become. Several statistical techniques have been developed to address this problem, for example, by requiring a stricter significance threshold for individual comparisons, so as to compensate for the number of inferences being made. Methods for family-wise error rate give the probability of false positives resulting from the multiple comparisons problem. History The problem of multiple comparisons received increased attention in the 1950s with the work of statisticians such as Tukey and Scheffé. Over the ensuing decades, many procedures were developed to address the problem. In 1996, the first international conference on multiple comparison procedures took place in Tel Aviv. T ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Overhead Power Line
An overhead power line is a structure used in electric power transmission and distribution to transmit electrical energy along large distances. It consists of one or more conductors (commonly multiples of three) suspended by towers or poles. Since the surrounding air provides good cooling, insulation along long passages, and allows optical inspection, overhead power lines are generally the lowest-cost method of power transmission for large quantities of electric energy. Construction Towers for support of the lines are made of wood (as-grown or laminated), steel or aluminum (either lattice structures or tubular poles), concrete, and occasionally reinforced plastics. The bare wire conductors on the line are generally made of aluminum (either plain or reinforced with steel, or composite materials such as carbon and glass fiber), though some copper wires are used in medium-voltage distribution and low-voltage connections to customer premises. A major goal of overhead power ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Journal Of Epidemiology
The American Journal of Epidemiology (''AJE'') is a peer-reviewed journal for empirical research findings, opinion pieces, and methodological developments in the field of epidemiological research. The current editor-in-chief is Enrique Schisterman. Articles published in ''AJE'' are indexed by PubMed, Embase, and a number of other databases. The ''AJE'' offers open-access options for authors. It is published monthly, with articles published online ahead of print at the accepted manuscript and corrected proof stages. Entire issues have been dedicated to abstracts from academic meetings (Society of Epidemiologic Research, North American Congress of Epidemiology), the history of the Epidemic Intelligence Service of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the life of George W. Comstock, and the celebration of notable anniversaries of schools of public health ( University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health; Tulane University School of Public Health and Tro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electromagnetic Radiation And Health
Electromagnetic radiation can be classified into two types: ionizing radiation and non-ionizing radiation, based on the capability of a single photon with more than 10 electronvolt, eV energy to ionize atoms or break chemical bonds. Extreme ultraviolet and higher frequencies, such as X-rays or gamma rays are ionizing, and these pose their own special hazards: see ''radiation poisoning''. The field strength of electromagnetic radiation is measured in volts per meter (V/m). The most common health hazard of radiation is sunburn, which causes between approximately 100,000 and 1 million new skin cancers annually in the United States. In 2011, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) have classified radiofrequency electromagnetic fields as possibly Carcinogen, carcinogenic to humans (Group 2B). Hazards Dielectric heating from electromagnetic radiation can create a biological hazard. For example, touching or standing around ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hypotheses Suggested By The Data
In statistics, hypotheses suggested by a given dataset, when tested with the same dataset that suggested them, are likely to be accepted even when they are not true. This is because circular reasoning (double dipping) would be involved: something seems true in the limited data set; therefore we hypothesize that it is true in general; therefore we wrongly test it on the same, limited data set, which seems to confirm that it is true. Generating hypotheses based on data already observed, in the absence of testing them on new data, is referred to as ''post hoc'' theorizing (from Latin language, Latin ''post hoc analysis, post hoc'', "after this"). The correct procedure is to test any hypothesis on a data set that was not used to generate the hypothesis. The general problem Testing a hypothesis suggested by the data can very easily result in false positives (type I errors). If one looks long enough and in enough different places, eventually data can be found to support any hypothes ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ex Ante
The term (sometimes written or ) is a New Latin phrase meaning "before the event". In economics, ''ex-ante'' or notional demand refers to the desire for goods and services that is not backed by the ability to pay for those goods and services. This is also termed as 'wants of people'. ''Ex-ante'' is used most commonly in the commercial world, where results of a particular action, or series of actions, are forecast (or intended). The opposite of ''ex-ante'' is '' ex-post'' (actual) (or ''ex post''). Buying a lottery ticket loses you money ''ex ante'' (in expectation), but if you win, it was the right decision ''ex post''. Examples Finance * In the financial world, the ''ex-ante return'' is the expected return of an investment portfolio. * In the recruitment industry, ''ex-ante'' is often used when forecasting resource requirements on large future projects. The ''ex-ante'' (and ''ex-post'') reasoning in economic topics was introduced mainly by Swedish economist Gun ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
