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Propensity Probability
The propensity theory of probability is a probability interpretation in which the probability is thought of as a physical propensity, disposition, or tendency of a given type of situation to yield an outcome of a certain kind, or to yield a long-run relative frequency of such an outcome.'Interpretations of Probability', Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophybr> Retrieved 23 December 2006. Propensities are not relative frequencies, but purported ''causes'' of the observed stable relative frequencies. Propensities are invoked to ''explain why'' repeating a certain kind of experiment will generate a given outcome type at a persistent rate. Stable long-run frequencies are a manifestation of invariant ''single-case'' probabilities. Frequentists are unable to take this approach, since relative frequencies do not exist for single tosses of a coin, but only for large ensembles or collectives. These single-case probabilities are known as propensities or chances. In addition to explai ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Interpretation
The word "probability" has been used in a variety of ways since it was first applied to the mathematical study of games of chance. Does probability measure the real, physical, tendency of something to occur, or is it a measure of how strongly one believes it will occur, or does it draw on both these elements? In answering such questions, mathematicians interpret the probability values of probability theory. There are two broad categories of probability interpretations which can be called "physical" and "evidential" probabilities. Physical probabilities, which are also called objective or frequency probabilities, are associated with random physical systems such as roulette wheels, rolling dice and radioactive atoms. In such systems, a given type of event (such as a yielding a six) tends to occur at a persistent rate, or "relative frequency", in a long run of trials. Physical probabilities either explain, or are invoked to explain, these stable frequencies. The two main kinds of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
David Miller (philosopher)
David William Miller (19 August 1942 in Watford – 20 November 2024) was an English philosopher and prominent exponent of critical rationalism. He taught in the Department of Philosophy at the University of Warwick in Coventry, UK, where he was a Reader in Philosophy. He had been an Honorary Treasurer of the British Society for the Philosophy of Science. He was educated at Woodbridge School and Peterhouse, Cambridge. In 1964 he began to study Logic and Scientific Method at the London School of Economics. Soon afterwards he became one of Karl Popper's research assistants. In a series of papers in the 1970s, Miller and others uncovered defects in Popper's formal definition of verisimilitude, previously a mostly ignored aspect of Popper's theory. A substantial literature developed in the two decades following, including papers by Miller, to assess the remediability of Popper's approach. Miller's '' Critical Rationalism: A Restatement and Defence'' is an attempt to expound, defen ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Frequentism
Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability (the ''long-run probability'') as the limit of its relative frequency in infinitely many trials. Probabilities can be found (in principle) by a repeatable objective process, as in repeated sampling from the same population, and are thus ideally devoid of subjectivity. The continued use of frequentist methods in scientific inference, however, has been called into question. The development of the frequentist account was motivated by the problems and paradoxes of the previously dominant viewpoint, the classical interpretation. In the classical interpretation, probability was defined in terms of the principle of indifference, based on the natural symmetry of a problem, so, for example, the probabilities of dice games arise from the natural symmetric 6-sidedness of the cube. This classical interpretation stumbled at any statistical problem that has no natural symmetry fo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Probability
Bayesian probability ( or ) is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with hypotheses; that is, with propositions whose truth or falsity is unknown. In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under frequentist inference, a hypothesis is typically tested without being assigned a probability. Bayesian probability belongs to the category of evidential probabilities; to evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies a prior probability. This, in turn, is then updated to a posterior probability in the light of new, relevant data (evidence). The Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedur ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
David Kellogg Lewis
David (; , "beloved one") was a king of ancient Israel and Judah and the third king of the United Monarchy, according to the Hebrew Bible and Old Testament. The Tel Dan stele, an Aramaic-inscribed stone erected by a king of Aram-Damascus in the late 9th/early 8th centuries BCE to commemorate a victory over two enemy kings, contains the phrase (), which is translated as " House of David" by most scholars. The Mesha Stele, erected by King Mesha of Moab in the 9th century BCE, may also refer to the "House of David", although this is disputed. According to Jewish works such as the '' Seder Olam Rabbah'', '' Seder Olam Zutta'', and ''Sefer ha-Qabbalah'' (all written over a thousand years later), David ascended the throne as the king of Judah in 885 BCE. Apart from this, all that is known of David comes from biblical literature, the historicity of which has been extensively challenged,Writing and Rewriting the Story of Solomon in Ancient Israel; by Isaac Kalimi; page 32; ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule, after Thomas Bayes) gives a mathematical rule for inverting Conditional probability, conditional probabilities, allowing one to find the probability of a cause given its effect. For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to someone of a known age to be assessed more accurately by conditioning it relative to their age, rather than assuming that the person is typical of the population as a whole. Based on Bayes' law, both the prevalence of a disease in a given population and the error rate of an infectious disease test must be taken into account to evaluate the meaning of a positive test result and avoid the ''base-rate fallacy''. One of Bayes' theorem's many applications is Bayesian inference, an approach to statistical inference, where it is used to invert the probability of Realization (probability), observations given a model configuration (i.e., th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Paul Humphreys (philosopher)
Paul Humphreys (1950-2022) was a British professor of philosophy at the University of Virginia, specialising in philosophy of science, metaphysics, and epistemology. His interests included the metaphysics and epistemology of emergence, computational science, empiricism and realism. Education and career Humphreys earned his undergraduate degree at the University of Sussex, and then went to Stanford University where he received his Ph.D. in 1976. He joined the University of Virginia faculty in 1978, where he spent the rest of his career (apart from visiting appointments at University of Arizona, Stanford University, University of Pittsburgh and others), rising to the rank of "Commonwealth Professor of Philosophy." Philosophical work He was a significant contributor to the philosophy of emergent properties, as well as other areas in the philosophy of science and philosophy of probability. Humphreys published a substantial number of books and scholarly articles. He was Series Edito ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ian Hacking
Ian MacDougall Hacking (February 18, 1936 – May 10, 2023) was a Canadian philosopher specializing in the philosophy of science. Throughout his career, he won numerous awards, such as the Killam Prize for the Humanities and the Balzan Prize, and was a member of many prestigious groups, including the Order of Canada, the Royal Society of Canada and the British Academy. Life and career Born in Vancouver, British Columbia, he earned undergraduate degrees from the University of British Columbia (1956) and the University of Cambridge (1958), where he was a student at Trinity College, Cambridge, Trinity College. Hacking also earned his PhD at Cambridge (1962) under the direction of Casimir Lewy, a former student of G. E. Moore. Hacking started his teaching career as an instructor at Princeton University in 1960 but, after just one year, moved to the University of Virginia as an assistant professor. After working as a research fellow at Peterhouse, Cambridge from 1962 to 1964, he ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Electrical Charge
Electricity is the set of physical phenomena associated with the presence and motion of matter possessing an electric charge. Electricity is related to magnetism, both being part of the phenomenon of electromagnetism, as described by Maxwell's equations. Common phenomena are related to electricity, including lightning, static electricity, electric heating, electric discharges and many others. The presence of either a positive or negative electric charge produces an electric field. The motion of electric charges is an electric current and produces a magnetic field. In most applications, Coulomb's law determines the force acting on an electric charge. Electric potential is the Work (physics), work done to move an electric charge from one point to another within an electric field, typically measured in volts. Electricity plays a central role in many modern technologies, serving in electric power where electric current is used to energise equipment, and in electronics dealing w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ronald Giere
Ronald Giere (; 29 November 1938, Cleveland, Ohio – 20 May 2020) was an American philosopher of science who was an emeritus professor of philosophy at the University of Minnesota. He was a Fellow of The AAAS, a long-time member of the editorial board of the journal ''Philosophy of Science'', and a past president of the Philosophy of Science Association. His research focused on agent-based accounts of models and scientific representation, and on connections between naturalism and secularism. Education Giere received a A.B. magna cum laude in physics from Oberlin College in 1960, a master of science in physics from Cornell University in 1963, and a Ph.D. in philosophy from Cornell University in 1968. Philosophical work In his book ''Scientific Perspectivism'' he developed a version of perspectival realism in which he argued that scientific descriptions are somewhat like colours, in that they capture only selected aspects of reality, and those aspects are not bits of the world seen ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Donald A
Donald is a Scottish masculine given name. It is derived from the Goidelic languages, Gaelic name ''Dòmhnall''.. This comes from the Proto-Celtic language, Proto-Celtic *''Dumno-ualos'' ("world-ruler" or "world-wielder"). The final -''d'' in ''Donald'' is partly derived from a misinterpretation of the Gaelic pronunciation by English speakers. A short form of Donald is Don (given name), Don, and pet forms of Donald include Donnie and Donny. The feminine given name Donella (other) , Donella is derived from Donald. ''Donald'' has cognates in other Celtic languages: Irish language, Modern Irish ''Dónal'' (anglicised as ''Donal'' and ''Donall'');. Scottish Gaelic ''Dòmhnall'', ''Domhnull'' and ''Dòmhnull''; Welsh language, Welsh ''Dyfnwal (other), Dyfnwal'' and Cumbric ''Dumnagual''. Although the feminine given name ''Donna (given name), Donna'' is sometimes used as a feminine form of ''Donald'', the names are not etymologically related. Variations King ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Karl Popper
Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian–British philosopher, academic and social commentator. One of the 20th century's most influential philosophers of science, Popper is known for his rejection of the classical inductivist views on the scientific method in favour of Falsifiability, empirical falsification, and for founding the Department of Philosophy at the London School of Economics. According to Popper, a theory in the empirical sciences can never be proven, but it can be falsified, meaning that it can (and should) be scrutinised with decisive experiments. Popper was opposed to the classical Justification (epistemology), justificationist account of knowledge, which he replaced with "the first non-justificational philosophy of criticism in the history of philosophy", namely critical rationalism. In political discourse, he is known for his vigorous defence of liberal democracy and the principles of social criticism that he believed mad ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
