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PollyVote
The PollyVote project uses the high-profile application of predicting U.S. presidential election results to demonstrate advances in forecasting research. The project is run by political science professors and forecasting experts, one of which is J. Scott Armstrong. All procedures, data, and results are fully disclosed and freely available online. The project started in March 2004 to demonstrate the benefits of combining forecasts. In averaging forecasts within and across different forecasting methods, the combined PollyVote forecast provided highly accurate predictions of the two-party popular vote shares for the last three U.S. presidential elections. History The PollyVote was created in March 2004 by marketing and forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong and political science professorAlfred CuzánanRandall Jones The goal at that time was to apply the combination principle in forecasting to predict President Bush's share of the two-party popular vote (omitting minor candidates ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Iowa Electronic Markets
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are a group of real-money prediction markets/ futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes. Overview The IEM allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on, among other things, political election results and economic indicators. Some markets are only available to academic traders. The IEM also trades futures based on financial markets, such as predicting whether the Fed Funds rate will be increased at the next meeting. The IEM has often been used to predict the results of political elections with a greater accuracy than traditional polls. Accessed: 10/26/2012 A precursor to the IEM wa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Prediction Market
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A typical prediction market contract is set up to trade between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
RealClearPolitics
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator. It was founded in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. It features selected political news stories and op-eds from various news publications in addition to commentary and original content from its own contributors.Rob MacKay"Political junkies create Web site for opinion and analysis", June 6, 2001 ''Princeton Alumni Weekly''. Princeton RCP receives its most traffic during election season and is known for its aggregation of polling data. Establishment The website was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive. McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information." They call what they do "intelligent aggregation". The site has gro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', also rendered as ''538'', was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of ''The New York Times'' online and was renamed ''FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus''. In July 2013, ESPN acquired ''FiveThirtyEight'', hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for '' ESPN.com''; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. Afterwards, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company). During the presiden ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator representing New York from 2001 to 2009, and the first lady of the United States as the wife of Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee in the 2016 United States presidential election, 2016 presidential election, becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party and the only woman to win the popular vote for U.S. president. However, she lost the electoral college to Republican Donald Trump. She is the only first lady of the United States to have run for elected office. Rodham graduated from Wellesley College in 1969 and from Yale Law School in 1973. After serving as a congressional legal counsel, she moved to Arkansas and ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Direct Election
Direct election is a system of choosing political officeholders in which the voters directly cast ballots for the persons or political party that they want to see elected. The method by which the winner or winners of a direct election are chosen depends upon the electoral system used. The most commonly used systems are the plurality system and the two-round system for single-winner elections, such as a presidential election, and proportional representation for the election of a legislature or executive. By contrast, in an indirect election, the voters elect a body which in turn elects the officeholder in question. In a double direct election, the elected representative serves on two councils, typically a lower-tier municipality and an upper-tier regional district or municipality. Examples Legislatures * The European Parliament has been directly elected every five years since 1979. Member states determine how to elect their representatives, but, among other requirement ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United States Electoral College
In the United States, the Electoral College is the group of presidential electors that is formed every four years for the sole purpose of voting for the President of the United States, president and Vice President of the United States, vice president in the United States presidential election, presidential election. This process is described in Article Two of the United States Constitution, Article Two of the Constitution. The number of electors from each U.S. state, state is equal to that state's United States congressional apportionment, congressional delegation which is the number of List of current United States senators, senators (two) plus the number of US Representatives, Representatives for that state. Each state Article II of the United States Constitution#Clause 2: Method of choosing electors, appoints electors using legal procedures determined by its State legislature (United States), legislature. Federal government of the United States, Federal office holders, inclu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Joe Biden
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who was the 46th president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he served as the 47th vice president of the United States, vice president from 2009 to 2017 and represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. Born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Biden graduated from the University of Delaware in 1965 and the Syracuse University College of Law in 1968. He was elected to the New Castle County Council in 1970 and the 1972 United States Senate election in Delaware, U.S. Senate in 1972. US Senate career of Joe Biden, As a senator, Biden chaired the Senate United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Judiciary Committee and United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Foreign Relations Committee. He drafted and led passage of the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act and the Violence Against Women Act. He also ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Foresight (forecasting Journal)
''Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting'' is a forecasting journal published quarterly by the International Institute of Forecasters. ''Foresight'' was launched in 2005 as a practitioner-focused companion to the IIF's '' International Journal of Forecasting''. ''Foresight'' publishes peer-reviewed articles written by academics and business forecasters on topics including design and management of forecasting processes, forecasting models, integrating forecasting into business planning Planning is the process of thinking regarding the activities required to achieve a desired goal. Planning is based on foresight, the fundamental capacity for mental time travel. Some researchers regard the evolution of forethought - the cap ..., sales forecasting, prediction markets, reviews of forecasting tools and books, sales and operations planning (S&OP), improving forecasting accuracy, and demand forecasting. All ''Foresight'' back issues and articles are i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
New Scientist
''New Scientist'' is a popular science magazine covering all aspects of science and technology. Based in London, it publishes weekly English-language editions in the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia. An editorially separate organisation publishes a monthly Dutch-language edition. First published on 22 November 1956, ''New Scientist'' has been available in online form since 1996. Sold in retail outlets (paper edition) and on subscription (paper and/or online), the magazine covers news, features, reviews and commentary on science, technology and their implications. ''New Scientist'' also publishes speculative articles, ranging from the technical to the philosophical. ''New Scientist'' was acquired by Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) in March 2021. History Ownership The magazine was founded in 1956 by Tom Margerison, Max Raison and Nicholas Harrison as ''The New Scientist'', with Issue 1 on 22 November 1956, priced at one shilling (). An article in the magazi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
International Journal Of Forecasting
The ''International Journal of Forecasting'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal on forecasting. It is published by Elsevier on behalf of the International Institute of Forecasters. Its objective is to "unify the field of forecasting and to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers". The journal was established in 1985. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2022 impact factor of 7.9. Editors-in-chief The editors-in-chief An editor-in-chief (EIC), also known as lead editor or chief editor, is a publication's editorial leader who has final responsibility for its operations and policies. The editor-in-chief heads all departments of the organization and is held accoun ... of the journal have been: * Pierre Pinson (2019–) * Esther Ruiz (2019) * Rob J. Hyndman (2005–2018) * Jan G. de Gooijer (1998–2004) * Robert Fildes (1988–1998) * J. Scott Armstrong (1988–198 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Political Science & Politics
Politics () is the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations among individuals, such as the distribution of status or resources. The branch of social science that studies politics and government is referred to as political science. Politics may be used positively in the context of a "political solution" which is compromising and non-violent, or descriptively as "the art or science of government", but the word often also carries a negative connotation.. The concept has been defined in various ways, and different approaches have fundamentally differing views on whether it should be used extensively or in a limited way, empirically or normatively, and on whether conflict or co-operation is more essential to it. A variety of methods are deployed in politics, which include promoting one's own political views among people, negotiation with other political subjects, making laws, and exercising internal and external f ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
