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Partial Autocorrelation Function
In time series analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) gives the partial correlation of a stationary time series with its own lagged values, regressed the values of the time series at all shorter lags. It contrasts with the autocorrelation function, which does not control for other lags. This function plays an important role in data analysis aimed at identifying the extent of the lag in an autoregressive (AR) model. The use of this function was introduced as part of the Box–Jenkins approach to time series modelling, whereby plotting the partial autocorrelative functions one could determine the appropriate lags p in an AR (p) model or in an extended ARIMA (p,d,q) model. Definition Given a time series z_t, the partial autocorrelation of lag k, denoted \phi_, is the autocorrelation between z_t and z_ with the linear dependence of z_t on z_ through z_ removed. Equivalently, it is the autocorrelation between z_t and z_ that is not accounted for by lags 1 through k- ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Moving-average Model
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure. The moving-average model should not be confused with the moving average, a distinct concept despite some similarities. Contrary to the AR model, the finite MA model is always stationary. Definition The notation MA(''q'') refers to the moving average model of order ''q'': : X_t = \mu + \varepsilon_t + \theta_1 \varepsilon_ + \cdots + \theta_q \varepsilon_ = \mu + \sum_^q \theta_i \varepsilon_ + \varepsilon_, where \mu is the mean of the series, the \theta_1,...,\theta_q are ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Time Domain Analysis
Time is the continued sequence of existence and events that occurs in an apparently irreversible succession from the past, through the present, into the future. It is a component quantity of various measurements used to sequence events, to compare the duration of events or the intervals between them, and to quantify rates of change of quantities in material reality or in the conscious experience. Time is often referred to as a fourth dimension, along with three spatial dimensions. Time has long been an important subject of study in religion, philosophy, and science, but defining it in a manner applicable to all fields without circularity has consistently eluded scholars. Nevertheless, diverse fields such as business, industry, sports, the sciences, and the performing arts all incorporate some notion of time into their respective measuring systems. 108 pages. Time in physics is operationally defined as "what a clock reads". The physical nature of time is addressed ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Standard Score
In statistics, the standard score is the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score (i.e., an observed value or data point) is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured. Raw scores above the mean have positive standard scores, while those below the mean have negative standard scores. It is calculated by subtracting the population mean from an individual raw score and then dividing the difference by the population standard deviation. This process of converting a raw score into a standard score is called standardizing or normalizing (however, "normalizing" can refer to many types of ratios; see normalization for more). Standard scores are most commonly called ''z''-scores; the two terms may be used interchangeably, as they are in this article. Other equivalent terms in use include z-values, normal scores, standardized variables and pull in high energy physics. Computing a z-score requires knowledge of the mean and standard ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Confidence Interval
In frequentist statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is a range of estimates for an unknown parameter. A confidence interval is computed at a designated ''confidence level''; the 95% confidence level is most common, but other levels, such as 90% or 99%, are sometimes used. The confidence level represents the long-run proportion of corresponding CIs that contain the true value of the parameter. For example, out of all intervals computed at the 95% level, 95% of them should contain the parameter's true value. Factors affecting the width of the CI include the sample size, the variability in the sample, and the confidence level. All else being the same, a larger sample produces a narrower confidence interval, greater variability in the sample produces a wider confidence interval, and a higher confidence level produces a wider confidence interval. Definition Let be a random sample from a probability distribution with statistical parameter , which is a quantity to be esti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Mean
There are several kinds of mean in mathematics, especially in statistics. Each mean serves to summarize a given group of data, often to better understand the overall value ( magnitude and sign) of a given data set. For a data set, the '' arithmetic mean'', also known as "arithmetic average", is a measure of central tendency of a finite set of numbers: specifically, the sum of the values divided by the number of values. The arithmetic mean of a set of numbers ''x''1, ''x''2, ..., x''n'' is typically denoted using an overhead bar, \bar. If the data set were based on a series of observations obtained by sampling from a statistical population, the arithmetic mean is the '' sample mean'' (\bar) to distinguish it from the mean, or expected value, of the underlying distribution, the '' population mean'' (denoted \mu or \mu_x).Underhill, L.G.; Bradfield d. (1998) ''Introstat'', Juta and Company Ltd.p. 181/ref> Outside probability and statistics, a wide range of other notions of m ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Normal Distribution
In statistics, a normal distribution or Gaussian distribution is a type of continuous probability distribution for a real-valued random variable. The general form of its probability density function is : f(x) = \frac e^ The parameter \mu is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode), while the parameter \sigma is its standard deviation. The variance of the distribution is \sigma^2. A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed, and is called a normal deviate. Normal distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the natural and social sciences to represent real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known. Their importance is partly due to the central limit theorem. It states that, under some conditions, the average of many samples (observations) of a random variable with finite mean and variance is itself a random variable—whose distribution converges to a normal dist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Partial Autocorrelation Function Graph
Partial may refer to: Mathematics *Partial derivative, derivative with respect to one of several variables of a function, with the other variables held constant ** ∂, a symbol that can denote a partial derivative, sometimes pronounced "partial dee" **Partial differential equation, a differential equation that contains unknown multivariable functions and their partial derivatives Other uses *Partial application, in computer science the process of fixing a number of arguments to a function, producing another function *Partial charge or net atomic charge, in chemistry a charge value that is not an integer or whole number *Partial fingerprint, impression of human fingers used in criminology or forensic science *Partial seizure or focal seizure, a seizure that initially affects only one hemisphere of the brain * Partial or Part score, in contract bridge a trick score less than 100, as well as other meanings * Partial or Partial wave, one sound wave of which a complex tone is composed ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Autoregressive–moving-average Model
In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, ''Hypothesis testing in time series analysis'', and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins. Given a time series of data X_t, the ARMA model is a tool for understanding and, perhaps, predicting future values in this series. The AR part involves regressing the variable on its own lagged (i.e., past) values. The MA part involves modeling the error term as a linear combination of error terms occurring contemporaneously and at various times in the past. The model is usually referred to as the ARMA(''p'',''q'') model where ''p'' is the order of the AR part and ''q'' is the order of the MA part (as define ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Exponential Decay
A quantity is subject to exponential decay if it decreases at a rate proportional to its current value. Symbolically, this process can be expressed by the following differential equation, where is the quantity and (lambda) is a positive rate called the exponential decay constant, disintegration constant, rate constant, or transformation constant: :\frac = -\lambda N. The solution to this equation (see derivation below) is: :N(t) = N_0 e^, where is the quantity at time , is the initial quantity, that is, the quantity at time . Measuring rates of decay Mean lifetime If the decaying quantity, ''N''(''t''), is the number of discrete elements in a certain set, it is possible to compute the average length of time that an element remains in the set. This is called the mean lifetime (or simply the lifetime), where the exponential time constant, \tau, relates to the decay rate constant, λ, in the following way: :\tau = \frac. The mean lifetime can be looked at a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Oscillation (mathematics)
In mathematics, the oscillation of a function or a sequence is a number that quantifies how much that sequence or function varies between its extreme values as it approaches infinity or a point. As is the case with limits, there are several definitions that put the intuitive concept into a form suitable for a mathematical treatment: oscillation of a sequence of real numbers, oscillation of a real-valued function at a point, and oscillation of a function on an interval (or open set). Definitions Oscillation of a sequence Let (a_n) be a sequence of real numbers. The oscillation \omega(a_n) of that sequence is defined as the difference (possibly infinite) between the limit superior and limit inferior of (a_n): :\omega(a_n) = \limsup_ a_n - \liminf_ a_n. The oscillation is zero if and only if the sequence converges. It is undefined if \limsup_ and \liminf_ are both equal to +∞ or both equal to −∞, that is, if the sequence tends to +∞ or −∞. Oscillation of a funct ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Autoregressive Model
In statistics, econometrics and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation (or recurrence relation which should not be confused with differential equation). Together with the moving-average (MA) model, it is a special case and key component of the more general autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which consists of a system of more than one interlocking stochastic difference equation in more than one evolving random vari ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |