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Moving Average Process
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure. The moving-average model should not be confused with the moving average, a distinct concept despite some similarities. Contrary to the AR model, the finite MA model is always stationary. Definition The notation MA(''q'') refers to the moving average model of order ''q'': : X_t = \mu + \varepsilon_t + \theta_1 \varepsilon_ + \cdots + \theta_q \varepsilon_ = \mu + \sum_^q \theta_i \varepsilon_ + \varepsilon_, where \mu is the mean of the series, the \theta_1,...,\theta_q are t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Time Series Analysis
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements. Time series ''analysis'' comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series ''fore ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Normal Distribution
In statistics, a normal distribution or Gaussian distribution is a type of continuous probability distribution for a real-valued random variable. The general form of its probability density function is : f(x) = \frac e^ The parameter \mu is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode), while the parameter \sigma is its standard deviation. The variance of the distribution is \sigma^2. A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed, and is called a normal deviate. Normal distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the natural and social sciences to represent real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known. Their importance is partly due to the central limit theorem. It states that, under some conditions, the average of many samples (observations) of a random variable with finite mean and variance is itself a random variable—whose distribution converges to a normal dist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Finite Impulse Response
In signal processing, a finite impulse response (FIR) filter is a filter whose impulse response (or response to any finite length input) is of ''finite'' duration, because it settles to zero in finite time. This is in contrast to infinite impulse response (IIR) filters, which may have internal feedback and may continue to respond indefinitely (usually decaying). The impulse response (that is, the output in response to a Kronecker delta input) of an Nth-order discrete-time FIR filter lasts exactly N+1 samples (from first nonzero element through last nonzero element) before it then settles to zero. FIR filters can be discrete-time or continuous-time, and digital or analog. Definition For a causal discrete-time FIR filter of order ''N'', each value of the output sequence is a weighted sum of the most recent input values: :\begin y &= b_0 x + b_1 x -1+ \cdots + b_N x -N\\ &= \sum_^N b_i\cdot x -i \end where: * x /math> is the input signal, * y /math> is the output ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Box–Jenkins Method
In time series analysis, the Box–Jenkins method, named after the statisticians George Box and Gwilym Jenkins, applies autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to find the best fit of a time-series model to past values of a time series. Modeling approach The original model uses an iterative three-stage modeling approach: #'' Model identification and model selection'': making sure that the variables are stationary, identifying seasonality in the dependent series (seasonally differencing it if necessary), and using plots of the autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions of the dependent time series to decide which (if any) autoregressive or moving average component should be used in the model. #''Parameter estimation'' using computation algorithms to arrive at coefficients that best fit the selected ARIMA model. The most common methods use maximum likelihood estimation or non-linear least-squares est ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Partial Autocorrelation Function
In time series analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) gives the partial correlation of a stationary time series with its own lagged values, regressed the values of the time series at all shorter lags. It contrasts with the autocorrelation function, which does not control for other lags. This function plays an important role in data analysis aimed at identifying the extent of the lag in an autoregressive (AR) model. The use of this function was introduced as part of the Box–Jenkins approach to time series modelling, whereby plotting the partial autocorrelative functions one could determine the appropriate lags p in an AR (p) model or in an extended ARIMA (p,d,q) model. Definition Given a time series z_t, the partial autocorrelation of lag k, denoted \phi_, is the autocorrelation between z_t and z_ with the linear dependence of z_t on z_ through z_ removed. Equivalently, it is the autocorrelation between z_t and z_ that is not accounted for by lags 1 through k- ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autocorrelation Function
Autocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay. Informally, it is the similarity between observations of a random variable as a function of the time lag between them. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise, or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies. It is often used in signal processing for analyzing functions or series of values, such as time domain signals. Different fields of study define autocorrelation differently, and not all of these definitions are equivalent. In some fields, the term is used interchangeably with autocovariance. Unit root processes, trend-stationary processes, autoregressive processes, and moving average processes are specific forms of processes with autocorrelation. Au ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Curve Fitting
Curve fitting is the process of constructing a curve, or mathematical function, that has the best fit to a series of data points, possibly subject to constraints. Curve fitting can involve either interpolation, where an exact fit to the data is required, or smoothing, in which a "smooth" function is constructed that approximately fits the data. A related topic is regression analysis, which focuses more on questions of statistical inference such as how much uncertainty is present in a curve that is fit to data observed with random errors. Fitted curves can be used as an aid for data visualization, to infer values of a function where no data are available, and to summarize the relationships among two or more variables. Extrapolation refers to the use of a fitted curve beyond the range of the observed data, and is subject to a degree of uncertainty since it may reflect the method used to construct the curve as much as it reflects the observed data. For linear-algebraic analy ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Vector Autoregression
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a statistical model used to capture the relationship between multiple quantities as they change over time. VAR is a type of stochastic process model. VAR models generalize the single-variable (univariate) autoregressive model by allowing for multivariate time series. VAR models are often used in economics and the natural sciences. Like the autoregressive model, each variable has an equation modelling its evolution over time. This equation includes the variable's lagged (past) values, the lagged values of the other variables in the model, and an error term. VAR models do not require as much knowledge about the forces influencing a variable as do structural models with simultaneous equations. The only prior knowledge required is a list of variables which can be hypothesized to affect each other over time. Specification Definition A VAR model describes the evolution of a set of ''k'' variables, called ''endogenous variables'', over time. Each pe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autoregressive Model
In statistics, econometrics and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation (or recurrence relation which should not be confused with differential equation). Together with the moving-average (MA) model, it is a special case and key component of the more general autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which consists of a system of more than one interlocking stochastic difference equation in more than one evolving random vari ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Finite Impulse Response
In signal processing, a finite impulse response (FIR) filter is a filter whose impulse response (or response to any finite length input) is of ''finite'' duration, because it settles to zero in finite time. This is in contrast to infinite impulse response (IIR) filters, which may have internal feedback and may continue to respond indefinitely (usually decaying). The impulse response (that is, the output in response to a Kronecker delta input) of an Nth-order discrete-time FIR filter lasts exactly N+1 samples (from first nonzero element through last nonzero element) before it then settles to zero. FIR filters can be discrete-time or continuous-time, and digital or analog. Definition For a causal discrete-time FIR filter of order ''N'', each value of the output sequence is a weighted sum of the most recent input values: :\begin y &= b_0 x + b_1 x -1+ \cdots + b_N x -N\\ &= \sum_^N b_i\cdot x -i \end where: * x /math> is the input signal, * y /math> is the output ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Linear Regression
In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach for modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables (also known as dependent and independent variables). The case of one explanatory variable is called '' simple linear regression''; for more than one, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable. In linear regression, the relationships are modeled using linear predictor functions whose unknown model parameters are estimated from the data. Such models are called linear models. Most commonly, the conditional mean of the response given the values of the explanatory variables (or predictors) is assumed to be an affine function of those values; less commonly, the conditional median or some other quantile is used. Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regressio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Univariate
In mathematics, a univariate object is an expression, equation, function or polynomial involving only one variable. Objects involving more than one variable are multivariate. In some cases the distinction between the univariate and multivariate cases is fundamental; for example, the fundamental theorem of algebra and Euclid's algorithm for polynomials are fundamental properties of univariate polynomials that cannot be generalized to multivariate polynomials. In statistics, a univariate distribution characterizes one variable, although it can be applied in other ways as well. For example, univariate data are composed of a single scalar component. In time series analysis, the whole time series is the "variable": a univariate time series is the series of values over time of a single quantity. Correspondingly, a "multivariate time series" characterizes the changing values over time of several quantities. In some cases, the terminology is ambiguous, since the values within a uni ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
