|
Lucas Critique
The Lucas critique argues that it is naïve to try to predict the effects of a change in economic policy entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historical data, especially highly aggregated historical data. More formally, it states that the decision rules of Keynesian models—such as the consumption function—cannot be considered as structural in the sense of being invariant with respect to changes in government policy variables. It was named after American economist Robert Lucas's work on macroeconomic policymaking. The Lucas critique is significant in the history of economic thought as a representative of the paradigm shift that occurred in macroeconomic theory in the 1970s towards attempts at establishing micro-foundations. Thesis The Lucas critique was not new in 1976. The argument and the whole logic was first presented by Frisch (1938) and discussed by Haavelmo (1944), among others. Related ideas are expressed as Campbell's law and Goodhart's law� ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economic Policy
''Economic Policy'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal published by Oxford University Press, Oxford Academic on behalf of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the Center for Economic Studies (University of Munich), and the Paris School of Economics. The journal was established in 1985 and covers international economic policy topics such as macroeconomics, microeconomics, the labour market, trade, exchange rate, taxation, economic growth, government spending, and Human migration, migration. The journal had an impact factor of 2.844 in 2016, ranking it 33/347 in the category "Economics". References External links * {{Official website, https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy Wiley-Blackwell academic journals English-language journals Academic journals established in 1985 Quarterly journals Economics journals ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Microfoundations
Microfoundations are an effort to understand macroeconomic phenomena in terms of individual agents' economic behavior and interactions.Maarten Janssen (2008),Microfoundations, in ''The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics'', 2nd ed. Research in microfoundations explores the link between Macroeconomics, macroeconomic and Microeconomics, microeconomic principles in order to explore the aggregate relationships in macroeconomic models. During recent decades, macroeconomists have attempted to combine microeconomic models of individual behaviour to derive the relationships between macroeconomic variables. Presently, many macroeconomic models, representing different theories, are Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, derived by aggregating microeconomic models, allowing economists to test them with both macroeconomic and microeconomic data. However, microfoundations research is still heavily debated with management, strategy and organization scholars having varying views on the "micro-m ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hasty Generalization
A faulty generalization is an informal fallacy wherein a conclusion is drawn about all or many instances of a phenomenon on the basis of one or a few instances of that phenomenon. It is similar to a proof by example in mathematics. It is an example of jumping to conclusions. For example, one may generalize about all people or all members of a group from what one knows about just one or a few people: * If one meets a rude person from a given country X, one may suspect that most people in country X are rude. * If one sees only white swans, one may suspect that all swans are white. Expressed in more precise philosophical language, a fallacy of defective induction is a conclusion that has been made on the basis of weak premises, or one which is not justified by sufficient or unbiased evidence. Unlike fallacies of relevance, in fallacies of defective induction, the premises are related to the conclusions, yet only weakly buttress the conclusions, hence a faulty generalization is pr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Game Theory
Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions. It has applications in many fields of social science, and is used extensively in economics, logic, systems science and computer science. Initially, game theory addressed two-person zero-sum games, in which a participant's gains or losses are exactly balanced by the losses and gains of the other participant. In the 1950s, it was extended to the study of non zero-sum games, and was eventually applied to a wide range of Human behavior, behavioral relations. It is now an umbrella term for the science of rational Decision-making, decision making in humans, animals, and computers. Modern game theory began with the idea of mixed-strategy equilibria in two-person zero-sum games and its proof by John von Neumann. Von Neumann's original proof used the Brouwer fixed-point theorem on continuous mappings into compact convex sets, which became a standard method in game theory and mathematical economics. His paper was f ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) is a macroeconomics, macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microfoundations, microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as economic policy, policy effects and market shocks. Terminology As a practical matter, people often use the term "DSGE models" to refer to a particular class of classically quantitative econometrics, econometric models of business cycles or economic growth called real business cycle (RBC) models.Christiano (2018) DSGE models were initially proposed in the 1980s by Kydland & Prescott, and Long & Plosser;Long & Plosser (1983) Charles Plosser described RBC models as a precurso ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dynamic Inconsistency
In economics, dynamic inconsistency or time inconsistency is a situation in which a decision-maker's preferences change over time in such a way that a preference can become inconsistent at another point in time. This can be thought of as there being many different "selves" within decision makers, with each "self" representing the decision-maker at a different point in time; the inconsistency occurs when not all preferences are aligned. The term "dynamic inconsistency" is more closely affiliated with game theory, whereas "time inconsistency" is more closely affiliated with behavioral economics. In game theory In the context of game theory, dynamic inconsistency is a situation in a dynamic game where a player's best plan for some future period will not be optimal when that future period arrives. A dynamically inconsistent game is subgame imperfect. In this context, the inconsistency is primarily about commitment and credible threats. This manifests itself through a violation ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United States Bullion Depository
The United States Bullion Depository, often known as Fort Knox, is a fortified bank vault, vault building located next to the United States Army post of Fort Knox, Kentucky. It is operated by the United States Department of the Treasury. The vault is used to store a large portion of the United States' gold reserves as well as other precious items belonging to or in custody of the federal government. It currently holds 147.3 million Troy ounce, ounces of gold bullion, a little over half the total gold presently held by the Federal government of the United States, federal government. The United States Mint Police protects the depository. The Treasury built the depository in 1936 on land transferred to it from the military. Its purpose was to house gold then stored in New York City and Philadelphia, in keeping with a strategy to move gold reserves away from coastal cities to areas less vulnerable to foreign military attack. The first set of gold shipments to the depository occurr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability (normally interpreted as a low and stable rate of inflation). Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since then, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies. The tools of monetary policy vary from central bank to central bank, depending on the country's stage of development, inst ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecasts
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and assessment of its accuracy. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good prac ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Phillips Curve
The Phillips curve is an economic model, named after Bill Phillips, that correlates reduced unemployment with increasing wages in an economy. While Phillips did not directly link employment and inflation, this was a trivial deduction from his statistical findings. Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow made the connection explicit and subsequently Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps put the theoretical structure in place. While there is a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, it has not been observed in the long run.Chang, R. (1997"Is Low Unemployment Inflationary?" ''Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review'' 1Q97:4-13 In 1967 and 1968, Friedman and Phelps asserted that the Phillips curve was only applicable in the short run and that, in the long run, inflationary policies would not decrease unemployment. Friedman correctly predicted the stagflation of the 1970s. In the 2010s the slope of the Phillips curve appears to have declined and there has been controver ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Unemployment
Unemployment, according to the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), is the proportion of people above a specified age (usually 15) not being in paid employment or self-employment but currently available for work during the reference period. Unemployment is measured by the unemployment rate, which is the number of people who are unemployed as a percentage of the labour force (the total number of people employed added to those unemployed). Unemployment can have many sources, such as the following: * the status of the economy, which can be influenced by a recession * competition caused by globalization and international trade * new technologies and inventions * policies of the government * regulation and market * war, civil disorder, and natural disasters Unemployment and the status of the economy can be influenced by a country through, for example, fiscal policy. Furthermore, the monetary authority of a country, such as the central bank, can in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Inflation
In economics, inflation is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money. This increase is measured using a price index, typically a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. Changes in inflation are widely attributed to fluctuations in Real versus nominal value (economics), real demand for goods and services (also known as demand shocks, including changes in fiscal policy, fiscal or monetary policy), changes in available supplies such as during energy crisis, energy crises (also known as supply shocks), or changes in inflation expectations, which may be self-fulfilling. Moderat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
