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Exit Poll
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count. History There are different views on who invented the exit poll. Marcel van Dam, Dutch sociologist and former politician, says he was the inventor, by being the first to implement one during the Dutch legislative elections on 15 February 1967. Other sources say Warren Mitofsky, an American pollster, was the first. For CBS News, he devised an exit poll in the Kentucky gubernatorial election in November that same year. Notwithstanding this, the mention of the first exit polls date back to the 1940s when such a poll was held in Denver, Colorado. Purpose ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Survey (human Research)
In Human subject research, research of human subjects, a survey is a list of questions aimed for extracting specific data from a particular group of people. Surveys may be conducted by phone, mail, via the internet, and also in person in public spaces. Surveys are used to gather or gain knowledge in fields such as social research and demography. Survey research is often used to assess thoughts, opinions and feelings. Surveys can be specific and limited, or they can have more global, widespread goals. Psychologists and sociologists often use surveys to analyze behavior, while it is also used to meet the more pragmatic needs of the media, such as, in evaluating political candidates, public health officials, professional organizations, and advertising and marketing directors. Survey research has also been employed in various medical and surgical fields to gather information about healthcare personnel’s practice patterns and professional attitudes toward various clinical problems an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Marginal Seat
A marginal seat or swing seat is a constituency held with a small majority in a legislative election, generally one conducted under a single-winner voting system. In Canada, they may be known as target ridings. The opposite is a safe seat. The term ultra-marginal seat refers to a constituency with a majority of single digits, usually within a percentage of 2%. Examples of traditionally marginal seats in the United Kingdom include Broxtowe, Watford, Bolton West and Thurrock. In Australia, marginal seats include Lindsay in New South Wales, Bass in Tasmania, Longman in Queensland and Corangamite in Victoria. Ultra-marginal seats in Australia include the federal seat of Gilmore in New South Wales and the state seats of Bundaberg in Queensland and Kogarah in New South Wales. Examples Australia The Australian Electoral Commission defines seat margins as follows: Federal Following the 2022 federal election, 51 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives are con ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Market Research Society
The Market Research Society (MRS) is a professional body for market research based in London, England. It was established in 1946 at the offices of the London Press Exchange. It represents the views of its members to government and in the press. MRS recognise 5,000 individual members and over 500 accredited Company Partners in over 50 countries. As the regulator, they promote the highest professional standards throughout the sector via the MRS Code of Conduct. MRS is the world’s largest association serving those with professional equity in provision or use of market, social and opinion research, and in business intelligence, market analysis, customer insight and consultancy. In 2015, it jointly ran an inquiry with the British Polling Council into the failings of polling before the British general election of that year. The inquiry found that the failure of polling to correctly predict the result was the result of unrepresentative polling samples. History The Market Research ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Shy Tory Factor
"Shy Tory factor" is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party (known colloquially as the Tories) was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls. The accepted explanation was that "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. The general elections held in 1992 and 2015 are examples where it has allegedly affected the overall results but has further been discussed in other elections where the Conservatives did unexpectedly well. It has also been applied to the success of the Republican Party in the United States or the continued electoral victories of the People's Action Party in Singapore. Examples 1992 general election The final opinion polling for the 1992 United Kingdom general election gave the Conservatives between 38% and 39% of the vote, about 1% behind the L ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
John Major
Sir John Major (born 29 March 1943) is a British retired politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party (UK), Leader of the Conservative Party from 1990 to 1997. Following his defeat to Tony Blair's Labour Party (United Kingdom), Labour Party in the 1997 United Kingdom general election, 1997 general election, he became Leader of the Opposition (United Kingdom), Leader of the Opposition, serving in this role from May to June 1997. He previously held Cabinet of the United Kingdom, Cabinet positions under Margaret Thatcher, his last as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1989 to 1990. Major was Member of Parliament (United Kingdom), Member of Parliament (MP) for Huntingdon (UK Parliament constituency), Huntingdon, formerly Huntingdonshire (UK Parliament constituency), Huntingdonshire, from 1979 to 2001. Since stepping down as an MP in 2001, Major has focused on writing and his business, sporting, and charity work, and has occasiona ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conservative Party (UK)
The Conservative and Unionist Party, commonly the Conservative Party and colloquially known as the Tories, is one of the two main political parties in the United Kingdom, along with the Labour Party (UK), Labour Party. The party sits on the Centre-right politics, centre-right to Right-wing politics, right-wing of the Left–right political spectrum, left-right political spectrum. Following its defeat by Labour at the 2024 United Kingdom general election, 2024 general election it is currently the second-largest party by the number of votes cast and number of seats in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons; as such it has the formal parliamentary role of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition. It encompasses various ideological factions including One-nation conservatism, one-nation conservatives, Thatcherism, Thatcherites and Traditionalist conservatism, traditionalist conservatives. There have been 20 Conservative Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, prime minis ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hung Parliament
A hung parliament is a term used in legislatures primarily under the Westminster system (typically employing Majoritarian representation, majoritarian electoral systems) to describe a situation in which no single political party or pre-existing coalition (also known as an alliance or bloc) has an absolute majority of legislators (commonly known as members or seats) in a parliament or other legislature. This situation is also known as a balanced parliament, or—for Local government in the United Kingdom, local government in the United Kingdom—a parliament under no overall control (NOC). A hung parliament may result in a coalition government, a minority government, or a snap election if a government cannot be formed. In multi-party systems, particularly where proportional representation is employed, it is rare for a single party to hold a majority of the seats, and likewise rare for one party to form government on its own (i.e. coalition government is the norm). Consequently, th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1992 United Kingdom General Election
The 1992 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 9 April 1992, to elect List of MPs elected in the 1992 United Kingdom general election, 651 members to the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons. The governing Conservative Party (UK), Conservative Party led by Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Prime Minister John Major won a fourth consecutive election victory, with a majority of 21. This would be the last time that the Conservatives would win an overall majority at a general election until 2015 United Kingdom general election, 2015 and the last general election to be held on a day which did not coincide with any local elections until 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017. This election result took many by surprise, as opinion polling leading up to the election day had shown a narrow but consistent lead for the Labour Party (UK), Labour Party under leader Neil Kinnock during a period of recession and declining living standards. John Major ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Margin Of Error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a Statistical survey, survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a simultaneous census of the entire Statistical population, population. The margin of error will be positive whenever a population is incompletely sampled and the outcome measure has positive variance, which is to say, whenever the measure ''varies''. The term ''margin of error'' is often used in non-survey contexts to indicate observational error in reporting measured quantities. Concept Consider a simple ''yes/no'' poll P as a sample of n respondents drawn from a population N \text(n \ll N) reporting the percentage p of ''yes'' responses. We would like to know how close p is to the true result of a survey of the entire population N, without having to conduct one. If, hypothetically, we were to conduct a poll P over subsequent sample ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Early Voting
Early voting, also called advance polling or pre-poll voting, is a convenience voting process by which voters in a public election can vote before a scheduled Election Day (politics), election day. Early voting can take place remotely, such as via postal voting, or in person, usually in designated early voting polling stations. The availability and time periods for early voting vary among jurisdictions and types of election. The goals of early voting are usually to increase voter participation, relieve congestion at polling stations on election day, and avoid possible discrimination against people with work and travel schedules that may effectively prohibit them from getting to the polls during the hours provided in a single election day. In some countries, early in-person voting or postal voting (or both) are available to all voters. In other countries, only some voters (such as those who are expected to be out of the country or hospitalized on election day) are eligible to cast ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mailed Ballot
Postal voting is voting in an election where ballot papers are distributed to electors (and typically returned) by post, in contrast to electors voting in person at a polling station or electronically via an electronic voting system. In an election, postal votes may be available on demand or limited to individuals meeting certain criteria, such as a proven inability to travel to a designated polling place. Most electors are required to apply for a postal vote, although some may receive one by default. In some elections postal voting is the only voting method allowed and is referred to as all-postal voting. With the exception of those elections, postal votes constitute a form of early voting and may be considered an absentee ballot. Typically, postal votes must be mailed back before the scheduled election day. However, in some jurisdictions return methods may allow for dropping off the ballot in person via secure drop boxes or at voting centers. Postal votes may be processed b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Phone Poll
Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) is a telephone surveying technique in which the interviewer follows a script provided by a software application. It is a structured system of microdata collection by telephone that speeds up the collection and editing of microdata and also permits the interviewer to educate the respondents on the importance of timely and accurate data. The software is able to customize the flow of the questionnaire based on the answers provided, as well as information already known about the participant. It is used in B2B services and corporate sales. CATI may function in the following manner: * A computerized questionnaire is administered to respondents over the telephone. * The interviewer sits in front of a computer screen. * Upon command, the computer dials the telephone number to be called. * When contact is made, the interviewer reads the questions posed on the computer screen and records the respondent's answers directly into the computer. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
