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Credibility Theory
Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial mathematics concerned with determining risk premiums. To achieve this, it uses mathematical models in an effort to forecast the ( expected) number of insurance claims based on past observations. Technically speaking, the problem is to find the best linear approximation to the mean of the Bayesian predictive density, which is why credibility theory has many results in common with linear filtering as well as Bayesian statistics more broadly. For example, in group health insurance an insurer is interested in calculating the risk premium, RP, (i.e. the theoretical expected claims amount) for a particular employer in the coming year. The insurer will likely have an estimate of historical overall claims experience, x, as well as a more specific estimate for the employer in question, y. Assigning a credibility factor, z, to the overall claims experience (and the reciprocal to employer experience) allows the insurer to get a more accurate es ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Institutional Theory
In sociology and organizational studies, institutional theory is a theory on the deeper and more resilient aspects of social structure. It considers the processes by which structures, including schemes, rules, norms, and routines, become established as authoritative guidelines for social behavior. Different components of institutional theory explain how these elements are created, diffused, adopted, and adapted over space and time; and how they fall into decline and disuse. Overview In defining institutions, according to William Richard Scott (1995, 235), there is "no single and universally agreed definition of an 'institution' in the institutional school of thought." Scott (1995:33, 2001:48) asserts that: According to Scott (2008), institutional theory is "a widely accepted theoretical posture that emphasizes productivity, ethics, and legitimacy." Researchers building on this perspective emphasize that a key insight of institutional theory is ethics: rather than necessaril ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Frequentist
Frequentist inference is a type of statistical inference based in frequentist probability, which treats “probability” in equivalent terms to “frequency” and draws conclusions from sample-data by means of emphasizing the frequency or proportion of findings in the data. Frequentist inference underlies frequentist statistics, in which the well-established methodologies of statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals are founded. History of frequentist statistics Frequentism is based on the presumption that statistics represent probabilistic frequencies. This view was primarily developed by Ronald Fisher and the team of Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson. Ronald Fisher contributed to frequentist statistics by developing the frequentist concept of "significance testing", which is the study of the significance of a measure of a statistic when compared to the hypothesis. Neyman-Pearson extended Fisher's ideas to apply to multiple hypotheses. They posed that the ratio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Casualty Actuarial Society
The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is a leading international professional society of actuaries, based in North America, and specializing in property and casualty insurance. The two levels of CAS membership are Associate (ACAS) and Fellow (FCAS). Requirements for these levels of membership include a comprehensive series of exams. Topics covered in the exams include statistics, mathematics, finance, economics, insurance, enterprise risk management, and actuarial science. Another class of CAS membership, Affiliate, includes qualified actuaries who practice in property-casualty insurance but do not meet the qualifications to become an Associate or Fellow. History The society was founded in 1914 and originally named the Casualty Actuarial and Statistical Society. The present name was adopted in 1921. The society's first president was I. M. Rubinow, who played a key role in its formation. There were 97 founding members of the society. The CAS was at first primarily concerned with p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Weighted Mean
The weighted arithmetic mean is similar to an ordinary arithmetic mean (the most common type of average), except that instead of each of the data points contributing equally to the final average, some data points contribute more than others. The notion of weighted mean plays a role in descriptive statistics and also occurs in a more general form in several other areas of mathematics. If all the weights are equal, then the weighted mean is the same as the arithmetic mean. While weighted means generally behave in a similar fashion to arithmetic means, they do have a few counterintuitive properties, as captured for instance in Simpson's paradox. Examples Basic example Given two school with 20 students, one with 30 test grades in each class as follows: :Morning class = :Afternoon class = The mean for the morning class is 80 and the mean of the afternoon class is 90. The unweighted mean of the two means is 85. However, this does not account for the difference in number of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Adverse Selection
In economics, insurance, and risk management, adverse selection is a market situation where Information asymmetry, asymmetric information results in a party taking advantage of undisclosed information to benefit more from a contract or trade. In an ideal world, buyers should pay a price which reflects their willingness to pay and the value to them of the product or service, and sellers should sell at a price which reflects the quality of their goods and services. However, when one party holds information that the other party does not have, they have the opportunity to damage the other party by maximizing self-utility, concealing relevant information, and perhaps even lying. This opportunity has secondary effects: the party without the information may take steps to avoid entering into an unfair contract, perhaps by withdrawing from the interaction; a party may ask for higher or lower prices, diminishing the volume of trade in the market; or parties may be deterred from participatin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Insurance Contract
In insurance, the insurance policy is a contract (generally a standard form contract) between the insurer and the policyholder, which determines the claims which the insurer is legally required to pay. In exchange for an initial payment, known as the premium, the insurer promises to pay for loss caused by perils covered under the policy language. Insurance contracts are designed to meet specific needs and thus have many features not found in many other types of contracts. Since insurance policies are standard forms, they feature boilerplate language which is similar across a wide variety of different types of insurance policies. Available through HeinOnline. The insurance policy is generally an integrated contract, meaning that it includes all forms associated with the agreement between the insured and insurer.Wollner KS. (1999). How to Draft and Interpret Insurance Policies. Casualty Risk Publishing LLC. In some cases, however, supplementary writings such as letters sent after ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Actuary
An actuary is a professional with advanced mathematical skills who deals with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty. These risks can affect both sides of the balance sheet and require investment management, asset management, liability (financial accounting), liability management, and valuation skills. Actuaries provide assessments of financial security systems, with a focus on their complexity, their mathematics, and their mechanisms. The name of the corresponding academic discipline is actuarial science. While the concept of insurance dates to antiquity, the concepts needed to scientifically measure and mitigate risks have their origins in 17th-century studies of probability and annuities. Actuaries in the 21st century require analytical skills, business knowledge, and an understanding of human behavior and information systems; actuaries use this knowledge to design programs that manage risk, by determining if the implementation of strategies proposed for mit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Significance
In statistical hypothesis testing, a result has statistical significance when a result at least as "extreme" would be very infrequent if the null hypothesis were true. More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by \alpha, is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the null hypothesis is true; and the p-value, ''p''-value of a result, ''p'', is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, given that the null hypothesis is true. The result is said to be ''statistically significant'', by the standards of the study, when p \le \alpha. The significance level for a study is chosen before data collection, and is typically set to 5% or much lower—depending on the field of study. In any experiment or Observational study, observation that involves drawing a Sampling (statistics), sample from a Statistical population, population, there is always the possibility that an observed effect would have occurred due to sampling error al ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Insurance
Insurance is a means of protection from financial loss in which, in exchange for a fee, a party agrees to compensate another party in the event of a certain loss, damage, or injury. It is a form of risk management, primarily used to protect against the risk of a contingent or uncertain loss. An entity which provides insurance is known as an insurer, insurance company, insurance carrier, or underwriter. A person or entity who buys insurance is known as a policyholder, while a person or entity covered under the policy is called an insured. The insurance transaction involves the policyholder assuming a guaranteed, known, and relatively small loss in the form of a payment to the insurer (a premium) in exchange for the insurer's promise to compensate the insured in the event of a covered loss. The loss may or may not be financial, but it must be reducible to financial terms. Furthermore, it usually involves something in which the insured has an insurable interest established by o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sampling Error
In statistics, sampling errors are incurred when the statistical characteristics of a population are estimated from a subset, or sample, of that population. Since the sample does not include all members of the population, statistics of the sample (often known as estimators), such as means and quartiles, generally differ from the statistics of the entire population (known as parameters). The difference between the sample statistic and population parameter is considered the sampling error.Sarndal, Swenson, and Wretman (1992), Model Assisted Survey Sampling, Springer-Verlag, For example, if one measures the height of a thousand individuals from a population of one million, the average height of the thousand is typically not the same as the average height of all one million people in the country. Since sampling is almost always done to estimate population parameters that are unknown, by definition exact measurement of the sampling errors will not be possible; however they can often ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments. When census data (comprising every member of the target population) cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Actuarial Mathematics
Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, pension, finance, investment and other industries and professions. Actuaries are professionals trained in this discipline. In many countries, actuaries must demonstrate their competence by passing a series of rigorous professional examinations focused in fields such as probability and predictive analysis. Actuarial science includes a number of interrelated subjects, including mathematics, probability theory, statistics, finance, economics, financial accounting and computer science. Historically, actuarial science used deterministic models in the construction of tables and premiums. The science has gone through revolutionary changes since the 1980s due to the proliferation of high speed computers and the union of stochastic actuarial models with modern financial theory. Many universities have undergraduate and graduate degree programs in actuarial science. In 2010, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
