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Betting Strategy
A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. Betting systems are often predicated on statistical analysis. Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random, independent trials, although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g. card counting and handicapping), can alter long-term results. This is formally stated by game theorist Richard Arnold Epstein in ''The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic'' as: Examples Common betting systems include: * Card games – Card counting * Sports – Hand ...
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Gambling
Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of Value (economics), value ("the stakes") on a Event (probability theory), random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy (game theory), strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elements to be present: consideration (an amount wagered), risk (chance), and a prize. The outcome of the wager is often immediate, such as a single roll of dice, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a horse crossing the finish line, but longer time frames are also common, allowing wagers on the outcome of a future sports contest or even an entire sports season. The term "gaming" in this context typically refers to instances in which the activity has been specifically permitted by law. The two words are not mutually exclusive; ''i.e.'', a "gaming" company offers (legal) "gambling" activities to the public and may be regulated by one of many gaming control boards, for example, the ...
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Split Martingale
Split(s) or The Split may refer to: Places * Split, Croatia, the largest coastal city in Croatia * Split Island, Canada, an island in the Hudson Bay * Split Island, Falkland Islands * Split Island, Fiji, better known as Hạfliua Arts, entertainment, and media Films * ''Split'' (1989 film), a science fiction film * ''Split'' (2016 American film), a psychological horror thriller film * ''Split'' (2016 Canadian film), also known as ''Écartée'', a Canadian drama film directed by Lawrence Côté-Collins * ''Split'' (2016 South Korean film), a sports drama film * '' Split: A Divided America'', a 2008 documentary on American politics * ''The Split'' (film), a 1968 heist film * ''The Split'', or ''The Manster'', a U.S.-Japanese horror film Games * Split (poker), the division of winnings in the card game * Split (blackjack), a possible player decision in the card game Music Albums * ''Split'' (The Groundhogs album), 1971 * ''Split'' (Lush album), 1994 * ''Split'' (Patricia B ...
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Parimutuel Betting
Parimutuel betting, or pool betting, is a betting system in which all bets of a particular type are placed together in a pool; taxes and the ''house-take'', or ''vigorish'', are deducted, and payoff odds are calculated by sharing the pool among all winning bets. In some countries it is known as the tote after the totalisator, which calculates and displays bets already made. The parimutuel system is used in gambling on horse racing, greyhound racing, jai alai, and other sporting events of relatively short duration in which participants finish in a ranked order. A modified parimutuel system is also used in some lottery games. Definition Parimutuel betting differs from fixed-odds betting in that the final payout is not determined until the pool is closed — in fixed-odds betting, the payout is agreed at the time the bet is made. Parimutuel gambling is frequently state-regulated, and it is offered in many places where gambling is otherwise illegal. Parimutuel gambling is often ...
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Mathematics Of Bookmaking
In gambling parlance, making a book is the practice of laying bets on the various possible outcomes of a single event. The phrase originates from the practice of recording such wagers in a hard-bound ledger (the "book") and gives the English language the term bookmaker for the person laying the bets and thus "making the book". Making a "book" (and the notion of overround) A bookmaker strives to accept bets on the outcome of an event in the right proportions in order to make a profit regardless of which outcome prevails. See Dutch book and coherence (philosophical gambling strategy). This is achieved primarily by adjusting what are determined to be the true odds of the various outcomes of an event in a downward fashion (i.e. the bookmaker will pay out using his actual odds, an amount which is less than the true odds would have paid, thus ensuring a profit). The odds quoted for a particular event may be fixed but are more likely to fluctuate in order to take account of the size of ...
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House Edge
A casino game is one in which players gamble cash or chips on various possible random outcomes or combinations of outcomes, often in a casino environment. Such games are also available in online casinos, where permitted by law. Casino games can also be played outside of casinos for entertainment purposes, like in parties or in school competitions, on machines that simulate gambling. Categories There are three general categories of casino games: gaming machines, table games, and random number games. Gaming machines, such as slot machines and pachinko, are usually played by one player at a time and do not require the involvement of casino employees. Tables games, such as blackjack or craps, involve one or more players who are competing against the house (the casino itself) rather than each other. Table games are usually conducted by casino employees known as croupiers or dealers. Random number games are based on the selection of random numbers, either from a computerized random n ...
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Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are Independent and identically distributed random variables, independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa). The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more likely to be six than is usually the case because there have recently been fewer than the Expected value, expected number of sixes. The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from an example of the phenomenon, in which the roulette wheel spun black 26 times in succession at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913. Examples Coin toss The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a fair coin. The outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of getti ...
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Arbitrage Betting
Betting arbitrage ("sure bets", sports arbitrage) is an example of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers' differing opinions on event outcomes, or errors. When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome. Mathematically, arbitrage occurs when there are a set of odds, which represent all mutually exclusive outcomes that cover all state space possibilities (i.e. all outcomes) of an event, whose implied probabilities add up to less than 1. Background Arbitrage betting involves relatively large sums of money, given that 98% of arbitrage opportunities return less than 1.2%. The practice is usually detected quickly by bookmakers, who typically hold an unfavorable view of it,{{Cite web, url=https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Undergraduate/Nominated%20Senior%20Essays/2015-16/Schwartz_Avery_SeniorEssay%202016.pdf, title=Arbitrage in the European Soc ...
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Hedge (finance)
A hedge is an investment Position (finance), position intended to offset potential losses or gains that may be incurred by a companion investment. A hedge can be constructed from many types of financial instruments, including stocks, exchange-traded funds, insurance policy, insurance, forward contracts, swap (finance), swaps, option (finance), options, gambles, many types of Over-the-counter (finance), over-the-counter and Derivative (finance), derivative products, and futures contracts. Public futures markets were established in the 19th century to allow transparent, standardized, and efficient hedging of agricultural commodity prices; they have since expanded to include futures contracts for hedging the values of Energy derivative, energy, precious metals, foreign currency, and interest rate fluctuations. Etymology Hedging is the practice of taking a position in one market to offset and balance against the risk adopted by assuming a position in a contrary or opposing market o ...
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Horse Racing
Horse racing is an equestrian performance activity, typically involving two or more horses ridden by jockeys (or sometimes driven without riders) over a set distance for competition. It is one of the most ancient of all sports, as its basic premise – to identify which of two or more horses is the fastest over a set course or distance – has been mostly unchanged since at least classical antiquity. Horse races vary widely in format, and many countries have developed their own particular traditions around the sport. Variations include restricting races to particular breeds, running over obstacles, running over different distances, running on different track surfaces, and running in different gaits. In some races, horses are assigned different weights to carry to reflect differences in ability, a process known as handicapping. While horses are sometimes raced purely for sport, a major part of horse racing's interest and economic importance is in the gambling associated ...
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Oscar's Grind
Oscar's Grind is a betting strategy used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French, it is often referred to as the Pluscoup Progression. It was first documented by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book, ''The Casino Gambler's Guide''. This progression is based on calculating the size of bets so that in the event of a losing streak, if and when a same-length winning streak occurs, a profit is obtained. The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks, which hopefully will follow. Description Oscar's Grind divides the entire gambling event into sessions. A session is a sequence of consecutive wagers made until 1 unit of profit is won. Each session begins by be ...
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D'Alembert System
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa). The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more likely to be six than is usually the case because there have recently been fewer than the expected number of sixes. The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from an example of the phenomenon, in which the roulette wheel spun black 26 times in succession at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913. Examples Coin toss The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a fair coin. The outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of getting heads on a single toss is (one in two). The probability of getting tw ...
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Anti-martingale
A martingale is a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins the stake if a coin comes up heads and loses if it comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double the bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Thus the strategy is an instantiation of the St. Petersburg paradox. Since a gambler will almost surely eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy is certain to make money for the gambler provided they have infinite wealth and there is no limit on money earned in a single bet. However, no gambler has infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets can bankrupt unlucky gamblers who choose to use the martingale, causing a catastrophic loss. Despite the fact that the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strateg ...
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