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Augur (software)
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug, and Jeremy Gardner. Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin. Operation Augur allows any user to create a prediction market on any topic. There are two kinds of markets: *Categorical markets have up to seven options; for example, "Will Alice win X election?" with "yes" and "no" as options, or "Who will win X election?" with five candidates as options. These markets are winners take all, making them similar to binary options. *Scalar markets offer a spectrum of numerical outcomes; for example, "What will the closing price of Apple's stock be on January 1 2021?" Traders can "long" or "short" any value, i.e. bet that the result will be higher or lower than a certain value. If a trader longs at X value, the more ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Solidity
Solidity is a programming language for implementing smart contracts on various blockchain platforms, most notably, Ethereum. Solidity is licensed under GNU General Public License v3.0. Solidity was designed by Gavin Wood and developed by Christian Reitwiessner, Alex Beregszaszi, and several former Ethereum core contributors. Programs in Solidity run on Ethereum Virtual Machine or on compatible virtual machines. History Solidity was proposed in August 2014 by Gavin Wood The language was later developed by the Ethereum project's Solidity team, led by Christian Reitwiessner. Solidity is the primary language used to develop smart contracts for Ethereum as well as other private blockchains, such as the enterprise-oriented Hyperledger Fabric blockchain. SWIFT deployed a proof of concept using Solidity running on Hyperledger Fabric. Description Solidity is a statically typed programming language designed for developing smart contracts that run on the Ethereum Virtual Machin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Binary Options
A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all.Breeden, D. T., & Litzenberger, R. H. (1978). "Prices of state-contingent claims implicit in option prices". ''Journal of Business'', 621–651.Gatheral, J. (2006). ''The volatility surface: a practitioner's guide'' (Vol. 357). John Wiley & Sons. The two main types of binary options are the cash-or-nothing binary option and the asset-or-nothing binary option. The former pays some fixed amount of cash if the option expires in-the-money while the latter pays the value of the underlying security. They are also called all-or-nothing options, digital options (more common in forex/interest rate markets), and fixed return options (FROs) (on the NYSE American).Binary Option Definition Investopedia. Retrieved 2013-0 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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PredictIt
PredictIt is a New Zealand-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington with support from Aristotle, Inc. The company's office is located in Washington, D.C. Only United States citizens can bet on the site. The market was initially launched on 3 November 2014. History PredictIt was first launched on 3 November 2014. By March 2016, the website had approximately 29,000 active traders. The nonprofit educational project of the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, "had to work around federal laws that prohibit online gambling and govern commodity futures trading." During the 2016 United States elections, PredictIt, along with other prediction market websites, received attention from various media outlets. Trading format PredictIt uses a continuous double auction to sell shares for each event in its markets, meaning that for every person who predicts that an ev ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Polymarket
Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can place bets on various future events, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, as well as political and legislative outcomes. Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring in the future. Polymarket has blocked access to US customers since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform. History Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events. In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and received a cease and desist order for re ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Kalshi
Kalshi Inc. is an American financial exchange and prediction market based in Lower Manhattan, New York City, offering event contracts. Launched in July 2021, it offers a platform where both retail and institutional traders can place trades on various future events, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, as well as political and legislative outcomes. The platform enables users to trade on yes-or-no questions, with contracts priced based on the market's estimated probability of an event occurring. The exchange provides contracts that pay out $1 for correct selections. In October 2024, Kalshi received approval to reintroduce election markets, allowing users to wager on political outcomes, such as congressional control and presidential elections. History Founded in 2018, Kalshi was established by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. The idea for the company emerged during their tenure as financial analysts, where they identified challenges faced by investors a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Manifold (prediction Market)
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'. Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars. Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28 2025. History Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. The conference was hosted again in 2024. Market structure The website u ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Decentralized Application
A decentralised application (DApp, dApp, Dapp, or dapp) is an Application software, application that can operate autonomously, typically through the use of smart contracts, that run on a decentralized computing, blockchain or other distributed ledger system. Like traditional applications, DApps provide some function or utility to its users. However, unlike traditional applications, DApps operate without human intervention and are not owned by any one entity, rather DApps distribute Cryptocurrency#Crypto token, tokens that represent ownership. These tokens are distributed according to a programmed algorithm to the users of the system, diluting ownership and control of the DApp. Without any one entity controlling the system, the application is therefore Decentralization, decentralised. Decentralised applications have been popularised by Distributed ledger, distributed ledger technologies (DLT), such as the Ethereum or Cardano (blockchain platform), Cardano blockchain, on which DApps ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Stablecoin
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency where the value of the digital asset is supposed to be pegged to a reference asset, which is either fiat money, exchange-traded commodities (such as precious metals or industrial metals), or another cryptocurrency. In theory, 1:1 backing by a reference asset could make a stablecoin value track the value of the peg and not be subject to the radical changes in value common in the market for many digital assets. In practice, stablecoin issuers have yet to be proven to maintain adequate reserves to support a stable value, and there have been a number of failures with investors losing the entirety of the (fiat currency) value of their holdings. Background Stablecoins have several purported purposes. They can be used for payments and are more likely to retain value than highly volatile cryptocurrencies. In practice, many stablecoins have failed to retain their "stable" value. Stablecoins are typically non-interest bearing and therefore do no ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Binary Option
A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all.Breeden, D. T., & Litzenberger, R. H. (1978). "Prices of state-contingent claims implicit in option prices". ''Journal of Business'', 621–651.Gatheral, J. (2006). ''The volatility surface: a practitioner's guide'' (Vol. 357). John Wiley & Sons. The two main types of binary options are the cash-or-nothing binary option and the asset-or-nothing binary option. The former pays some fixed amount of cash if the option expires in-the-money while the latter pays the value of the underlying security. They are also called all-or-nothing options, digital options (more common in forex/interest rate markets), and fixed return options (FROs) (on the NYSE American).Binary Option Definition Investopedia. Retrieved 2013- ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an Independent agencies of the United States government, independent agency of the US government created in 1974 that regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, which includes futures contract, futures, Swap (finance), swaps, and certain kinds of option (finance), options. The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), ''et seq.'', prohibits fraudulent conduct in the trading of futures, swaps, and other derivatives. The stated mission of the CFTC is to promote the integrity, resilience, and vibrancy of the U.S. derivatives markets through sound regulation. After the 2008 financial crisis and since 2010 with the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the CFTC has been transitioning to bring more transparency and sound regulation to the multitrillion-dollar swaps market. History Futures contracts for agricultural commodities have been traded in the U.S. for more than 150 years and have been under federal regulation sinc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Assassination Market
An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual. This incentivises assassination of the individual, as parties with advanced knowledge of an assassination plot can profit by betting accurately on the date of the death. Because the payoff is for accurately picking the date rather than performing the assassination, it is substantially more difficult to assign criminal liability. History Early uses of the terms "assassination market" and "market for assassinations" can be found (in both positive and negative lights) in 1994's "The Cyphernomicon" by Timothy C. May, a cypherpunk. The concept and its potential effects are also referred to as assassination politics, a term popularized by Jim Bell in his 1995–96 essay of the same name. Early in part 1, Jim Bell describes the idea as: Bell then goes on to further specify the protocol of the ass ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Death Pool
A dead pool, also known as a deadpool or death pool, is a game of prediction which involves guessing when someone will die. Sometimes it is a bet where money is involved. Modern application In the early 20th century, dead pools were popular in dangerous sports such as motorsport, for example the first edition of the Indianapolis 500. Variants A typical modern dead pool might have players pick out celebrities who they think will die within the year. Most games start on January 1 and run for 12 months, although there are some variations on game length and timing. In 2000, website Fucked Company claimed to be a "dot-com dead pool" which invited users to predict the next Internet startups to fail during that era's dot com bust. The site itself folded in 2007 after a long history as a target for strategic lawsuits against public participation by companies. Because of the high body count in the first seven seasons of the popular fantasy television series ''Game of Thrones'', ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |