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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index ("ADS Index" ) is a coincident business cycle indicator used in macroeconomics in the United States. The index measures business activity, which may be correlated with periods of expansion and contraction in the economy. The primary and novel function of the ADS index stems from its use of high-frequency economic data and subsequent high-frequency updating, opposed to the traditionally highly-lagged and infrequently-published macroeconomic data such as GDP. Development The ADS index was first introduced by the authors, including Francis Diebold, in March 2007 and published in October 2008, but the index is retroactively calculated back to March 1960. While other economic nowcasting often estimates GDP or inflation, the ADS index exists as a stand-alone series. This is in part due to the business cycle not tied to a single variable, such as GDP, employment, or industrial production. Instead, business cycle theory suggests an u ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Business Cycle
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms. There are many definitions of a business cycle. The simplest defines recessions as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. More satisfactory classifications are provided by, first including more economic indicators and second by looking for more data patterns than the two quarter definition. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research oversees a Business Cycle Dating Committee that defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Business cycles are usually thought of as medium-term ev ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Maximum Likelihood Estimation
In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimation theory, estimating the Statistical parameter, parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by Mathematical optimization, maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the Realization (probability), observed data is most probable. The point estimate, point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference. If the likelihood function is Differentiable function, differentiable, the derivative test for finding maxima can be applied. In some cases, the first-order conditions of the likelihood function can be solved analytically; for instance, the ordinary least squares estimator for a linear regression model maximizes the likelihood when ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Federal Reserve Bank Of Philadelphia
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia — also known as the Philadelphia Fed or the Philly Fed — headquartered at 10 Independence Mall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is responsible for the Third District of the Federal Reserve, which covers eastern and central Pennsylvania, the nine southern counties of New Jersey, and Delaware. Its geographical territory is by far the smallest in the system, and its population base is the second-smallest (next to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis). The current president of the Philadelphia Fed is Patrick T. Harker. The Philadelphia Fed conducts research on both the national and regional Economic system, economy. Its regional manufacturing index (economics), index is the second of the regional manufacturing reports released every month (the New York Fed's Empire State Index is now released earlier), but it is still very important to the financial community as a proxy for nationwide manufacturing conditions. The Federal Reserve Bank o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Transfer Payment
In macroeconomics and finance, a transfer payment (also called a government transfer or simply fiscal transfer) is a redistribution of income and wealth by means of the government making a payment, without goods or services being received in return (in contrast to financial transaction). These kind of payments are one-sided in nature, i.e. one party enjoys economic benefits from the other party. These payments are considered to be non-exhaustive because they do not directly absorb resources or create output. Examples of transfer payments include welfare, financial aid, social security, and government subsidies for certain businesses. Unlike the exchange transaction which mutually benefits all the parties involved in it, the transfer payment consists of a donor and a recipient, with the donor giving up something of value without receiving anything in return. Transfers can be made both between individuals and entities, such as private companies or governmental bodies. These tr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Personal Income In The United States
Personal income is an individual's total earnings from wages, investment interest, and other sources. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a median weekly personal income of $1,139 for full-time workers in the United States in Q1 2024. For the year 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the median annual earnings for all workers (people aged 15 and over with earnings) was $47,960; and more specifically estimates that median annual earnings for those who worked full-time, year round, was $60,070. Income patterns are evident on the basis of age, sex, ethnicity and Educational attainment in the United States, educational characteristics. In 2005 roughly half of all those with graduate degrees were among the nation's top 15% of income earners. Among different demographics (gender, marital status, ethnicity) for those over the age of 18, median personal income ranged from $3,317 for an unemployed, married Asian American female to $55,935 for a full-time, year-round employe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Industrial Production
Industrial production is a measure of output of the industrial sector of the economy. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although these sectors contribute only a small portion of gross domestic product (GDP), they are highly sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand. This makes industrial production an important tool for forecasting future GDP and economic performance. Industrial production figures are also used by central banks to measure inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money. This increase is measured using a price index, typically a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of curre ..., as high levels of industrial production can lead to uncontrolled levels of consumption and rapid inflation . See also * Index of industrial production * Industrial Production Index References Economic data Secondary sector of the economy ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims are a data point issued by the U.S. Department of Labor as part of its weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Initial jobless claims refer to claims for unemployment benefits filed by unemployed individuals with state unemployment agencies. Initial claims should not be confused with the number of people who actually receive unemployment benefits. For one, initial claims don't include continued claims—individuals who claim benefits for additional weeks of unemployment beyond their initial claim. Additionally, not all claimants will actually receive unemployment benefits. The report is released weekly at 08:30 Eastern Time on Thursdays. The data in the report is collected from state unemployment agencies who report the information to the Department of Labor's Office of Unemployment Insurance. Market impact The weekly release of the report can be a market moving event. The employment situation is extremely important for a macroeconomic anal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Yield Curve
In finance, the yield curve is a graph which depicts how the Yield to maturity, yields on debt instruments – such as bonds – vary as a function of their years remaining to Maturity (finance), maturity. Typically, the graph's horizontal or x-axis is a time line of months or years remaining to maturity, with the shortest maturity on the left and progressively longer time periods on the right. The vertical or y-axis depicts the annualized yield to maturity. Those who issue and trade in forms of debt, such as loans and bonds, use yield curves to determine their value. Shifts in the shape and slope of the yield curve are thought to be related to investor expectations for the economy and interest rates. Ronald Melicher and Merle Welshans have identified several characteristics of a properly constructed yield curve. It should be based on a set of securities which have differing lengths of time to maturity, and all yields should be calculated as of the same point in time. Al ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Kalman Filter
In statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering (also known as linear quadratic estimation) is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, including statistical noise and other inaccuracies, to produce estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement, by estimating a joint probability distribution over the variables for each time-step. The filter is constructed as a mean squared error minimiser, but an alternative derivation of the filter is also provided showing how the filter relates to maximum likelihood statistics. The filter is named after Rudolf E. Kálmán. Kalman filtering has numerous technological applications. A common application is for guidance, navigation, and control of vehicles, particularly aircraft, spacecraft and ships Dynamic positioning, positioned dynamically. Furthermore, Kalman filtering is much applied in time series analysis tasks such as signal processing and econometrics. K ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
State-space Representation
In control engineering and system identification, a state-space representation is a mathematical model of a physical system that uses state variables to track how inputs shape system behavior over time through first-order differential equations or difference equations. These state variables change based on their current values and inputs, while outputs depend on the states and sometimes the inputs too. The state space (also called time-domain approach and equivalent to phase space in certain dynamical systems) is a geometric space where the axes are these state variables, and the system’s state is represented by a state vector. For linear, time-invariant, and finite-dimensional systems, the equations can be written in matrix form, offering a compact alternative to the frequency domain’s Laplace transforms for multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) systems. Unlike the frequency domain approach, it works for systems beyond just linear ones with zero initial conditions. Thi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economic Indicator
An economic indicator is a statistic about an Economics, economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate (quit rate in American English), housing starts, consumer price index (a measure for inflation (economics), inflation), inverted yield curve, consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet access, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, price index, and changes in credit conditions. The leading business cycle dating committee in the United States, United States of America is the private National Bureau of Economic Research. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the field of labor economics ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dynamic Factor
In econometrics, a dynamic factor (also known as a diffusion index) is a series which measures the co-movement of many time series. It is used in certain macroeconomic models. A diffusion index is intended to indicate * the changes of the fraction of economic data time series which increase or decrease over the selected time interval, * an increase or decrease in future economic activity, * provide some correlation to the business sentiment of companies. Formally : X_=\Lambda_F_+e_, where F_=(f^_,\dots,f^_) is the vector of lagged factors of the variables in the T \times N matrix X_ (T is the number of observations and N is the number of variables), \Lambda_ are the factor loadings, and e_ is the factor error. History Diffusion indexes were originally designed to help identify business cycle turning points. Example A diffusion index of monthly employment levels across industries measures the degree to which a growth in employment levels in a population is made up of grow ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
