The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century. Further development of the Great Transition scenarios has been carried on by the Great Transition Initiative (GTI). The GSG's underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated scenario analysis that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the PoleStar Project and its PoleStar System. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, the PoleStar System was inspired by the 1987

Brundtland Commission The Brundtland Commission, formerly the World Commission on Environment and Development, was a sub-organization of the United Nations (UN) that aimed to unite countries in pursuit of sustainable development. It was founded in 1983 when Javier Pér ...

report ''

Our Common Future __NOTOC__ ''Our Common Future'', also known as the Brundtland Report, was published in October 1987 by the United Nations through the Oxford University Press. This publication was in recognition of Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Norwegian Prime Mi ...

'', which first put the concept of

sustainable development Sustainable development is an approach to growth and Human development (economics), human development that aims to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.United Nations General ...

on the international agenda. The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. The scenarios informed numerous international assessments, including the World Water Council's World Water Vision report in 1999–2000, the OECD Environmental Outlook in 2001, the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to "provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies". The World Met ...

's greenhouse gas emission mitigation assessment in 2001, the

United Nations Environment Programme The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is responsible for coordinating responses to environmental issues within the United Nations system. It was established by Maurice Strong, its first director, after the Declaration of the United Nati ...

's Third GEO Report in 2002, and the

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is a major assessment of the human impact on the environment, called for by the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2000, launched in 2001 and published in 2005 with more than $14 million of ...

in 2005. Members of the GSG included Tariq Banuri, Khaled Mohamed Fahmy, Tibor Farago, Nadezhda Gaponenko, Gilberto Gallopín, Gordon Goodman, Pablo Gutman, Allen Hammond, Roger Kasperson, Bob Kates, Laili Li, Sam Moyo, Madiodio Niasse, H.W.O. Okoth-Ogendo, Atiq Rahman, Paul Raskin, Setijati D. Sastrapradja, Katsuo Seiki, Nicholas Sonntag, Rob Swart, and Veerle Vandeweerd. Several of the GSG participants who actively participated in the IPCC assessments were recognized for contributing to the 2007 award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC. In 2002, the GSG formally summarized their scenario approach in an essay called ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead''.Paul Raskin, Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert Kates, and Rob Swart, ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead'' (Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002), http://www.greattransition.org/gt-essay. See also its sequel: Paul Raskin, ''Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization''. Boston: Tellus Institute, 2016, http://www.greattransition.org/publication/journey-to-earthland. The GSG scenario framework consists of six scenarios in three classes. In ''Conventional Worlds'' scenarios, the global system of the twenty-first century evolves without major surprises or discontinuities. This scenario class includes ''Market Forces'', in which the task of resolving social and environmental crises is left to competitive markets, and ''Policy Reform'', in which comprehensive and coordinated government action steps in. In ''Barbarization'' scenarios, emerging problems overwhelming the coping capacity of markets and policy reforms. This scenario class includes ''Breakdown'', in which crises spiral out of control and usher in collapse, and ''Fortress World'', in which elites safeguard their privilege to protect themselves from the surrounding misery. Finally, in ''Great Transitions'' scenarios, new socioeconomic arrangements and value shifts provide visionary solutions for a more socially and environmentally sustainable world. This scenario class includes ''Eco-Communalism'', which is based on bio-regionalism and localism, and a ''New Sustainability Paradigm'', which centers on a more humane and equitable global civilization.

References

External links

Global Scenario Group
– An international initiative to examine alternative futures
Great Transition Essay

Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice

Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability
{{Authority control International environmental organizations Futures studies organizations