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Scenario Analysis
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. In the most common application of the method, analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The method combines known facts, such as demographics, geography and mineral reserves, with military, political, and industrial information, and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ("STEEP") trends. In business applications, the emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment. At Royal Dutch Shell for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is the activity undertaken by an organization through which it seeks to define its future direction and makes decisions such as resource allocation aimed at achieving its intended goals. "Strategy" has many definitions, but it generally involves setting major goals, determining actions to achieve these goals, setting a timeline, and mobilizing resources to execute the actions. A strategy describes how the ends (goals) will be achieved by the means (resources) in a given span of time. Often, Strategic planning is long term and organizational action steps are established from two to five years in the future. Strategy can be planned ("intended") or can be observed as a pattern of activity ("emergent") as the organization adapts to its environment or competes in the market. The senior leadership of an organization is generally tasked with determining strategy. It is executed by strategic planners or strategists, who involve many parties and research sources in th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Military Simulation
Military simulations, also known informally as war games, are simulations in which theories of warfare can be tested and refined without the need for actual hostilities. Military simulations are seen as a useful way to develop Military tactics, tactical, Military strategy, strategical and military doctrine, doctrinal solutions, but critics argue that the conclusions drawn from such models are inherently flawed, due to the approximate nature of the models used. Simulations exist in many different forms, with varying degrees of realism. In recent times, the scope of simulations has widened to include not only military but also political and social factors, which are seen as inextricably entwined in a realistic warfare model. Whilst many governments make use of simulation, both individually and collaboratively, little is known about it outside professional circles. Yet modelling is often the means by which governments test and refine their military and political policies. The simula ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
SRI International
SRI International (SRI) is a nonprofit organization, nonprofit scientific research, scientific research institute and organization headquartered in Menlo Park, California, United States. It was established in 1946 by trustees of Stanford University to serve as a center of innovation to support economic development in the region. The organization was founded as the Stanford Research Institute. SRI formally separated from Stanford University in 1970 and became known as SRI International in 1977. SRI performs client-sponsored research and development for government agencies, commercial businesses, and private foundations. It also licenses its technologies, forms strategic partnerships, sells products, and creates Research spin-off, spin-off companies. SRI's headquarters are located near the Stanford University campus. SRI's annual revenue in 2014 was approximately $540 million, which tripled from 1998 under the leadership of Curtis Carlson. In 1998, the organization was on the ver ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Futures Techniques
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning. Anticipatory thinking protocols Delphi method The Delphi method is a popular technique used in futurology. It was developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1953 at RAND. It can be defined as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. It uses the iterative, independent questioning of a panel of experts to assess the timing, probability, significance and implications of factors, trends and events in the relation to the problem bein ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was an American physicist and a founding member of the Hudson Institute, regarded as one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He analyzed the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommended ways to improve survivability during the Cold War. Kahn posited the idea of a "winnable" nuclear exchange in his 1960 book '' On Thermonuclear War'', for which he was one of the historical inspirations for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire '' Dr. Strangelove''.Paul Boyer, 'Dr. Strangelove' in Mark C. Carnes (ed.), ''Past Imperfect: History According to the Movies'', New York, 1996. In his commentary for ''Fail Safe'', director Sidney Lumet remarked that the Professor Groeteschele character is also based on Herman Kahn. Kahn's theories contributed ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stress Testing
Stress testing is a form of deliberately intense or thorough testing, used to determine the stability of a given system, critical infrastructure or entity. It involves testing beyond normal operational capacity, often to a breaking point, in order to observe the results. Reasons can include: * to determine breaking points or safe usage limits * to confirm mathematical model is accurate enough in predicting breaking points or safe usage limits * to confirm intended specifications are being met * to determine Failure cause, modes of failure (how exactly a system fails) * to test stable operation of a part or system outside standard usage Reliability engineering, Reliability engineers often test items under expected stress or even under accelerated stress in order to determine the operating life of the item or to determine modes of failure.Nelson, Wayne B., (2004), ''Accelerated Testing - Statistical Models, Test Plans, and Data Analysis'', John Wiley & Sons, New York, The term "s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Asset Allocation
Asset allocation is the implementation of an investment strategy that attempts to balance risk versus reward by adjusting the percentage of each asset in an investment portfolio according to the investor's risk tolerance, goals and investment time frame. The focus is on the characteristics of the overall portfolio. Such a strategy contrasts with an approach that focuses on individual assets. Description Many financial experts argue that asset allocation is an important factor in determining returns for an investment portfolio. Asset allocation is based on the principle that different assets perform differently in different market and economic conditions. A fundamental justification for asset allocation is the notion that different asset classes offer returns that are not perfectly correlated, hence diversification reduces the overall risk in terms of the variability of returns for a given level of expected return. Asset diversification has been described as "the only f ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economic Forecasting
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, and companies or international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled b"Consensus Economics" Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently. The economist typically considers risks (i.e., events or conditions that can cause the result to vary from their initial estimat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Financial Institution
A financial institution, sometimes called a banking institution, is a business entity that provides service as an intermediary for different types of financial monetary transactions. Broadly speaking, there are three major types of financial institution: # Depository institution – deposit (finance), deposit-taking institution that accepts and manages deposits and makes loans, including bank, building society, credit union, trust company, and mortgage broker; # Contractual institution – insurance company and pension fund # Investment institution – investment banking, investment bank, underwriter, and other different types of financial entities managing investments. Financial institutions can be distinguished broadly into two categories according to ownership structure: * commercial bank * cooperative banking, cooperative bank Some experts see a trend toward homogenisation of financial institutions, meaning a tendency to invest in similar areas and have similar business str ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Finance
Finance refers to monetary resources and to the study and Academic discipline, discipline of money, currency, assets and Liability (financial accounting), liabilities. As a subject of study, is a field of Business administration, Business Administration wich study the planning, organizing, leading, and controlling of an organization's resources to achieve its goals. Based on the scope of financial activities in financial systems, the discipline can be divided into Personal finance, personal, Corporate finance, corporate, and public finance. In these financial systems, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as Currency, currencies, loans, Bond (finance), bonds, Share (finance), shares, stocks, Option (finance), options, Futures contract, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, Investment, invested, and Insurance, insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, Financial risk, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. Due ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Economics
Economics () is a behavioral science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interactions of Agent (economics), economic agents and how economy, economies work. Microeconomics analyses what is viewed as basic elements within economy, economies, including individual agents and market (economics), markets, their interactions, and the outcomes of interactions. Individual agents may include, for example, households, firms, buyers, and sellers. Macroeconomics analyses economies as systems where production, distribution, consumption, savings, and Expenditure, investment expenditure interact; and the factors of production affecting them, such as: Labour (human activity), labour, Capital (economics), capital, Land (economics), land, and Entrepreneurship, enterprise, inflation, economic growth, and public policies that impact gloss ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Paul J
Paul may refer to: People * Paul (given name), a given name, including a list of people * Paul (surname), a list of people * Paul the Apostle, an apostle who wrote many of the books of the New Testament * Ray Hildebrand, half of the singing duo Paul & Paula * Paul Stookey, one-third of the folk music trio Peter, Paul and Mary * Billy Paul, stage name of American soul singer Paul Williams (1934–2016) * Vinnie Paul, drummer for American Metal band Pantera * Paul Avril, pseudonym of Édouard-Henri Avril (1849–1928), French painter and commercial artist * Paul, pen name under which Walter Scott wrote ''Paul's letters to his Kinsfolk'' in 1816 * Jean Paul, pen name of Johann Paul Friedrich Richter (1763–1825), German Romantic writer Places * Paul, Cornwall, a village in the civil parish of Penzance, United Kingdom * Paul (civil parish), Cornwall, United Kingdom * Paul, Alabama, United States, an unincorporated community * Paul, Idaho, United States, a city * Paul, Nebraska ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
