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Subjective Expected Utility
In decision theory, subjective expected utility (SEU) is a framework for modeling how individuals make choices under uncertainty. In particular, it posits that decision-makers have 1) a subjective probability distribution over uncertain states of the world; and 2) a utility function over consequences such that their choice behavior can be described as maximizing expected utility over consequences with respect to their subjective probability. This way, the theory of subjective expected utility combines two subjective concepts: a personal utility function, and a personal probability distribution (usually based on Bayesian probability theory). SEU is a different approach from the one put forward by von Neumann and Morgenstern in that it does not take (objecive) probabilities (i.e., lotteries) as given. Instead, subjective probabilities are used, which are assumed to be consistent with choice behavior. The main contribution to formalizing SEU was done by L. J. Savage in 1954 (see ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Theory
Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability theory, probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses expected utility and probabilities, probability to model how individuals would behave Rationality, rationally under uncertainty. It differs from the Cognitive science, cognitive and Behavioural sciences, behavioral sciences in that it is mainly Prescriptive economics, prescriptive and concerned with identifying optimal decision, optimal decisions for a rational agent, rather than Descriptive economics, describing how people actually make decisions. Despite this, the field is important to the study of real human behavior by Social science, social scientists, as it lays the foundations to Mathematical model, mathematically model and analyze individuals in fields such as sociology, economics, criminology, cognitive science, moral philosophy and political science. History The roots of decision theory lie in probability theory, developed by Blai ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Savage's Subjective Expected Utility Model
In decision theory, Savage's subjective expected utility model (also known as Savage's framework, Savage's axioms, or Savage's representation theorem) is a formalization of subjective expected utility (SEU) developed by Leonard J. Savage in his 1954 book ''The Foundations of Statistics'', based on previous work by Ramsey, von Neumann and de Finetti. Savage's model concerns with deriving a subjective probability distribution and a utility function such that an agent's choice under uncertainty can be represented via expected-utility maximization. His contributions to the theory of SEU consist of formalizing a framework under which such problem is well-posed, and deriving conditions for its positive solution. Primitives and problem Savage's framework posits the following primitives to represent an agent's choice under uncertainty: * A set of ''states of the world'' \Omega, of which only one \omega \in \Omega is true. The agent does not know the true \omega, so \Omega ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Martin Shubik
Martin Shubik (1926–2018) was an American mathematical economist who specialized in game theory, defense analysis, and the theory of money. The latter was his main research interest and he referred to it as his "white whale". He also coined the term "mathematical institutional economics" in 1959 to describe his scholarly approach to studying the economy. He spent the majority of his career at Yale University Yale University is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in New Haven, Connecticut, United States. Founded in 1701, Yale is the List of Colonial Colleges, third-oldest institution of higher education in the United Stat ..., where he was heavily involved with the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, and launched the virtuaMuseum of Money and Financial Institutions Outside of economics, he began studying inclusion body myositis (IBM) after a 2003 diagnosis. He provided seed money to the Yale School of Public Health for thIBM Disease Reg ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Expected Utility
The expected utility hypothesis is a foundational assumption in mathematical economics concerning decision making under uncertainty. It postulates that rational agents maximize utility, meaning the subjective desirability of their actions. Rational choice theory, a cornerstone of microeconomics, builds this postulate to model aggregate social behaviour. The expected utility hypothesis states an agent chooses between risky prospects by comparing expected utility values (i.e., the weighted sum of adding the respective utility values of payoffs multiplied by their probabilities). The summarised formula for expected utility is U(p)=\sum u(x_k)p_k where p_k is the probability that outcome indexed by k with payoff x_k is realized, and function ''u'' expresses the utility of each respective payoff. Graphically the curvature of the u function captures the agent's risk attitude. For example, imagine you’re offered a choice between receiving $50 for sure, or flipping a coin to win $100 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Oskar Morgenstern
Oskar Morgenstern (; January 24, 1902 – July 26, 1977) was a German-born economist. In collaboration with mathematician John von Neumann, he is credited with founding the field of game theory and its application to social sciences and strategic decision-making. He also made significant contributions to decision theory (see von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem). He served as a consultant or co-founder for companies including the Market Research Corporation of America and the original Mathematica Inc. Biography Morgenstern was born in Görlitz in the Prussian Province of Silesia. His mother was rumored to be a daughter of Emperor Frederick III. Morgenstern grew up in Vienna, Austria, where he attended university. In 1925, he graduated from the University of Vienna with a PhD in political science. From 1925 to 1928, he undertook a three-year fellowship financed by the Rockefeller Foundation. After his return in 1928, he became a professor of economics at the Unive ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Stanford University Press
Stanford University Press (SUP) is the publishing house of Stanford University. It is one of the oldest academic presses in the United States and the first university press to be established on the West Coast. It is currently a member of the Association of University Presses. The press publishes 130 books per year across the humanities, social sciences, and business, and has more than 3,500 titles in print. History David Starr Jordan, the first president of Stanford University, posited four propositions to Leland and Jane Stanford when accepting the post, the last of which stipulated, "That provision be made for the publication of the results of any important research on the part of professors, or advanced students. Such papers may be issued from time to time as 'Memoirs of the Leland Stanford Junior University.'" In 1892, the first work of scholarship to be published under the Stanford name, ''The Tariff Controversy in the United States, 1789-1833'', by Orrin Leslie Elliott, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sidney Siegel
Sidney Siegel (4 January 1916 in New York City – 29 November 1961) was an American psychologist who became especially well known for his work in popularizing non-parametric statistics for use in the behavioral sciences. He was a co-developer of the statistical test known as the Siegel–Tukey test. In 1951 Siegel completed a B.A. in vocational arts at San Jose State College (now San Jose State University), then in 1953 a Ph.D. in Psychology at Stanford University. Except for a year spent at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford, he thereafter taught at Pennsylvania State University, until his death in November 1961 of a coronary thrombosis. His parents, Jacob and Rebecca Siegel, were Jewish immigrants from Romania.Sidney Siegel (ed. Samuel Messick, Arthur H. Brayfield), ''Decision and Choice'', p.2. McGraw-Hill, 1964 See also * Siegel–Tukey test. Notes References * ''Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences'', 1956 * ' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Patrick Suppes
Patrick Colonel Suppes (; March 17, 1922 – November 17, 2014) was an American philosopher who made significant contributions to philosophy of science, the theory of measurement, the foundations of quantum mechanics, decision theory, psychology and educational technology. He was the Lucie Stern Professor of Philosophy Emeritus at Stanford University and until January 2010 was the Director of the Education Program for Gifted Youth also at Stanford. Early life and career Suppes was born on March 17, 1922, in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He grew up as an only child, later with a half-brother George nearly 20 years his junior who was born in 1943 after Patrick had entered the army. His grandfather, C. E. Suppes, had moved to Oklahoma from Ohio. Suppes' father and grandfather were independent oil men. His mother died when he was a young boy. He was raised by his stepmother, who married his father when he was almost six years old. His parents did not have much formal education.Cf. Suppes autob ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Donald Davidson (philosopher)
Donald Herbert Davidson (March 6, 1917 – August 30, 2003) was an American philosopher. He served as Slusser Professor of Philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley, from 1981 to 2003 after having also held teaching appointments at Stanford University, Rockefeller University, Princeton University, and the University of Chicago. Davidson was known for his charismatic personality and difficult writing style, as well as the systematic nature of his philosophy. His work exerted considerable influence in many areas of philosophy from the 1960s onward, particularly in philosophy of mind, philosophy of language, and Action theory (philosophy), action theory. While Davidson was an analytic philosophy, analytic philosopher, with most of his influence lying in that tradition, his work has attracted attention in continental philosophy as well, particularly in literary theory and related areas. Early life and education Donald Herbert Davidson was born on March 6, 1917 in Springfield ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
AFM Smith
Sir Adrian Frederick Melhuish Smith, PRS (born 9 September 1946) is a British statistician who is chief executive of the Alan Turing Institute and president of the Royal Society. Early life and education Smith was born on 9 September 1946 in Dawlish in Devon. He was educated at Selwyn College, Cambridge, and University College London, where his PhD supervisor was Dennis Lindley. Career From 1977 until 1990, he was professor of statistics and head of department of mathematics at the University of Nottingham. He was subsequently at Imperial College, London, where he was head of the mathematics department. Smith is a former deputy vice-chancellor of the University of London and became vice-chancellor of the university on 1 September 2012. He stood down from the role in August 2018 to become the director of the Alan Turing Institute. Smith is a member of the governing body of the London Business School. He served on the Advisory Council for the Office for National Statistics fr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bruno De Finetti
Bruno de Finetti (13 June 1906 – 20 July 1985) was an Italian probabilist statistician and actuary, noted for the "operational subjective" conception of probability. The classic exposition of his distinctive theory is the 1937 , which discussed probability founded on the coherence of betting odds and the consequences of exchangeability. Life De Finetti was born in Innsbruck, Austria, and studied mathematics at Politecnico di Milano. He graduated in 1927, writing his thesis under the supervision of Giulio Vivanti. After graduation, he worked as an actuary and a statistician at ( National Institute of Statistics) in Rome and, from 1931, the Trieste insurance company Assicurazioni Generali. In 1936 he won a competition for Chair of Financial Mathematics and Statistics, but was not nominated due to a fascist law barring access to unmarried candidates; he was appointed as ordinary professor at the University of Trieste only in 1950. He published extensively (17 papers in 193 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Joseph Jastrow
Joseph Jastrow (January 30, 1863 – January 8, 1944) was a Polish-born American psychologist renowned for his contributions to experimental psychology, design of experiments, and psychophysics. He also worked on the phenomena of optical illusions, and a number of well-known optical illusions (notably the Jastrow illusion) that were either first reported in or popularized by his work. Jastrow believed that everyone had their own, often incorrect, preconceptions about psychology. One of his ultimate goals was to use the scientific method to identify truth from error, and educate the general public, which Jastrow accomplished through speaking tours, popular print media, and the radio. Biography Jastrow was born in Warsaw, Congress Poland, Poland. A son of Talmud scholar Marcus Jastrow, Joseph Jastrow was the younger brother of the Oriental studies, orientalist, Morris Jastrow, Jr. Joseph Jastrow came to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia in 1866 and received his bachelor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
