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Principle Of Indifference
The principle of indifference (also called principle of insufficient reason) is a rule for assigning epistemic probabilities. The principle of indifference states that in the absence of any relevant evidence, agents should distribute their credence (or 'degrees of belief') equally among all the possible outcomes under consideration. In Bayesian probability, this is the simplest non-informative prior. The principle of indifference is meaningless under the frequency interpretation of probability, in which probabilities are relative frequencies rather than degrees of belief in uncertain propositions, conditional upon state information. Examples The textbook examples for the application of the principle of indifference are coins, dice, and cards. In a macroscopic system, at least, it must be assumed that the physical laws that govern the system are not known well enough to predict the outcome. As observed some centuries ago by John Arbuthnot (in the preface of ''Of the Laws of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Epistemic Probability
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and reduction of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known. An example would be to predict the acceleration of a human body in a head-on crash with another car: even if the speed was exactly known, small differences in the manufacturing of individual cars, how tightly every bolt has been tightened, etc., will lead to different results that can only be predicted in a statistical sense. Many problems in the natural sciences and engineering are also rife with sources of uncertainty. Computer experiments on computer simulations are the most common approach to study problems in uncertainty quantification. Sources Uncertainty can enter mathematical models and experimental measurements in various contexts. One way to categorize the sources of uncertainty is to consider: ; Paramet ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Principle Of Transformation Groups
The principle of transformation groups is a rule for assigning ''epistemic'' probabilities in a statistical inference problem. It was first suggested by Edwin T. Jaynes and can be seen as a generalisation of the principle of indifference. This can be seen as a method to create ''objective ignorance probabilities'' in the sense that two people who apply the principle and are confronted with the same information will assign the same probabilities. Motivation and description of the method The method is motivated by the following normative principle, or desideratum: ''In two problems where we have the same prior information we should assign the same prior probabilities'' The method then comes about from "transforming" a given problem into an equivalent one. This method has close connections with group theory, and to a large extent is about finding symmetry in a given problem, and then exploiting this symmetry to assign prior probabilities. In problems with discrete variables (e.g ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
John Venn
John Venn, Fellow of the Royal Society, FRS, Fellow of the Society of Antiquaries of London, FSA (4 August 1834 – 4 April 1923) was an English mathematician, logician and philosopher noted for introducing Venn diagrams, which are used in logic, set theory, probability, statistics, and computer science. In 1866, Venn published ''The Logic of Chance'', a groundbreaking book which espoused the frequency theory of probability, arguing that probability should be determined by how often something is forecast to occur as opposed to "educated" assumptions. Venn then further developed George Boole's theories in the 1881 work ''Symbolic Logic'', where he highlighted what would become known as Venn diagrams. Life and career John Venn was born on 4 August 1834 in Kingston upon Hull, Yorkshire, to Martha Sykes and Rev. Henry Venn (Church Missionary Society), Henry Venn, who was the rector of the parish of Drypool. His mother died when he was three years old. Venn was descended from a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
George Boole
George Boole (; 2 November 1815 – 8 December 1864) was a largely self-taught English mathematician, philosopher, and logician, most of whose short career was spent as the first professor of mathematics at Queen's College, Cork in Ireland. He worked in the fields of differential equations and algebraic logic, and is best known as the author of '' The Laws of Thought'' (1854) which contains Boolean algebra. Boolean logic is credited with laying the foundations for the Information Age. Early life Boole was born in 1815 in Lincoln, Lincolnshire, England, the son of John Boole senior (1779–1848), a shoemaker and Mary Ann Joyce. He had a primary school education, and received lessons from his father, but due to a serious decline in business, he had little further formal and academic teaching. William Brooke, a bookseller in Lincoln, may have helped him with Latin, which he may also have learned at the school of Thomas Bainbridge. He was self-taught in modern langu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Principle Of Sufficient Reason
The principle of sufficient reason states that everything must have a reason or a cause. The principle was articulated and made prominent by Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, with many antecedents, and was further used and developed by Arthur Schopenhauer and Sir William Hamilton, 9th Baronet. History The modern formulation of the principle is usually ascribed to early Enlightenment philosopher Gottfried Leibniz. Leibniz formulated it, but was not an originator.See chapter on Leibniz and Spinoza in A. O. Lovejoy, ''The Great Chain of Being''. The idea was conceived of and utilized by various philosophers who preceded him, including Anaximander, Parmenides, Archimedes, Plato and Aristotle,Hamilton 1860:66 Cicero, Avicenna, Thomas Aquinas, and Spinoza. One often pointed to is in Anselm of Canterbury: his phras''quia Deus nihil sine ratione facit''and the formulation of the ontological argument for the existence of God. A clearer connection is with the cosmological argument for the ex ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Gottfried Leibniz
Gottfried Wilhelm (von) Leibniz . ( – 14 November 1716) was a German polymath active as a mathematician, philosopher, scientist and diplomat. He is one of the most prominent figures in both the history of philosophy and the history of mathematics. He wrote works on philosophy, theology, ethics, politics, law, history and philology. Leibniz also made major contributions to physics and technology, and anticipated notions that surfaced much later in probability theory, biology, medicine, geology, psychology, linguistics and computer science. In addition, he contributed to the field of library science: while serving as overseer of the Wolfenbüttel library in Germany, he devised a cataloging system that would have served as a guide for many of Europe's largest libraries. Leibniz's contributions to this vast array of subjects were scattered in various learned journals, in tens of thousands of letters and in unpublished manuscripts. He wrote in several languages, primarily in Latin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Johannes Von Kries
Johannes Adolf von Kries (6 October 1853 – 30 December 1928) was a German physiological psychologist who formulated the modern “duplicity” or “duplexity” theory of vision mediated by rod cells at low light levels and three types of cone cells at higher light levels. He made important contributions in the field of haemodynamics. In addition, von Kries was a significant theorist of the foundations of probability. Biography When von Kries was at Freiburg (1880–1924), he was called to succeed Professor Emil Du Bois-Reymond as chair of physiology at the University of Berlin, but he declined. Von Kries has been called Helmholtz's "greatest German disciple". Works “Über den Druck in den Blutcapillaren der menschlichen Haut” ''Arbeiten aus der Physiologischen Anstalt zu Leipzig'' p 69-80 (1875). “Die Zeitdauer einfachster psychischer Vorgänge”with Felix Auerbach. ''Archiv für Physiologie'' p 297-378 (1877). * “Über die Bestimmung des Mitteldruckes durch ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Pierre Simon Laplace
Pierre-Simon, marquis de Laplace (; ; 23 March 1749 – 5 March 1827) was a French scholar and polymath whose work was important to the development of engineering, mathematics, statistics, physics, astronomy, and philosophy. He summarized and extended the work of his predecessors in his five-volume ''Mécanique céleste'' (''Celestial Mechanics'') (1799–1825). This work translated the geometric study of classical mechanics to one based on calculus, opening up a broader range of problems. In statistics, the Bayesian interpretation of probability was developed mainly by Laplace. Laplace formulated Laplace's equation, and pioneered the Laplace transform which appears in many branches of mathematical physics, a field that he took a leading role in forming. The Laplacian differential operator, widely used in mathematics, is also named after him. He restated and developed the nebular hypothesis of the origin of the Solar System and was one of the first scientists to suggest ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Jacob Bernoulli
Jacob Bernoulli (also known as James or Jacques; – 16 August 1705) was one of the many prominent mathematicians in the Bernoulli family. He was an early proponent of Leibnizian calculus and sided with Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz during the Leibniz–Newton calculus controversy. He is known for his numerous contributions to calculus, and along with his brother Johann, was one of the founders of the calculus of variations. He also discovered the fundamental mathematical constant . However, his most important contribution was in the field of probability, where he derived the first version of the law of large numbers in his work '' Ars Conjectandi''.Jacob (Jacques) Bernoulli [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wine/water Paradox
The wine/water paradox is an apparent paradox in probability theory. It is stated by Michael Deakin as follows: The core of the paradox is in finding consistent and justifiable simultaneous prior distributions for x and \frac. Calculation We do not know x, the wine to water ratio. We only know that it lies in an interval between the minimum of one quarter wine over three quarters water on one end (i.e. 25% wine), to the maximum of three quarters wine over one quarter water on the other (i.e. 75% wine). Now, making use of the principle of indifference The principle of indifference (also called principle of insufficient reason) is a rule for assigning epistemic probabilities. The principle of indifference states that in the absence of any relevant evidence, agents should distribute their cre ..., we may assume that x is uniformly distributed. Then the chance of finding the ratio x ''below'' any given fixed threshold x_t, with x_\mathrm [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conjugate Variable
Conjugate variables are pairs of variables mathematically defined in such a way that they become Fourier transform duals, or more generally are related through Pontryagin duality. The duality relations lead naturally to an uncertainty relation—in physics called the Heisenberg uncertainty principle—between them. In mathematical terms, conjugate variables are part of a symplectic basis, and the uncertainty relation corresponds to the symplectic form. Also, conjugate variables are related by Noether's theorem, which states that if the laws of physics are invariant with respect to a change in one of the conjugate variables, then the other conjugate variable will not change with time (i.e. it will be conserved). Examples There are many types of conjugate variables, depending on the type of work a certain system is doing (or is being subjected to). Examples of canonically conjugate variables include the following: * Time and frequency: the longer a musical note is sustained, the m ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Liouville's Theorem (Hamiltonian)
In physics, Liouville's theorem, named after the French mathematician Joseph Liouville, is a key theorem in classical statistical and Hamiltonian mechanics. It asserts that ''the phase-space distribution function is constant along the trajectories of the system''—that is that the density of system points in the vicinity of a given system point traveling through phase-space is constant with time. This time-independent density is in statistical mechanics known as the classical a priori probability. There are related mathematical results in symplectic topology and ergodic theory; systems obeying Liouville's theorem are examples of incompressible dynamical systems. There are extensions of Liouville's theorem to stochastic systems. Liouville equations The Liouville equation describes the time evolution of the ''phase space distribution function''. Although the equation is usually referred to as the "Liouville equation", Josiah Willard Gibbs was the first to recognize the impo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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