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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
The quantitative precipitation forecast (abbreviated QPF) is the expected amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a specified area. A QPF will be created when precipitation amounts reaching a minimum threshold are expected during the forecast's valid period. Valid periods of precipitation forecasts are normally synoptic hours such as 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 GMT. Terrain is considered in QPFs by use of topography or based upon climatological precipitation patterns from observations with fine detail. Starting in the mid-to-late 1990s, QPFs were used within hydrologic forecast models to simulate impact to rivers throughout the United States. Forecast models show significant sensitivity to humidity levels within the planetary boundary layer, or in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, which decreases with height. QPF can be generated on a quantitative, forecasting amounts, or a qualitative, forecasting the probability of a specific am ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Centers For Environmental Prediction
The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities. These products and services are based on a service-science legacy and respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance that nation's economy and support the nation's growing need for environmental information. The centers form part of the National Weather Service. There are nine centers: # Aviation Weather Center provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. # Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the effects climate patterns can have on the nation. # Environmental Modeling Center develops and improves numerical weather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad prog ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Type I And Type II Errors
In statistical hypothesis testing, a type I error is the mistaken rejection of an actually true null hypothesis (also known as a "false positive" finding or conclusion; example: "an innocent person is convicted"), while a type II error is the failure to reject a null hypothesis that is actually false (also known as a "false negative" finding or conclusion; example: "a guilty person is not convicted"). Much of statistical theory revolves around the minimization of one or both of these errors, though the complete elimination of either is a statistical impossibility if the outcome is not determined by a known, observable causal process. By selecting a low threshold (cut-off) value and modifying the alpha (α) level, the quality of the hypothesis test can be increased. The knowledge of type I errors and type II errors is widely used in medical science, biometrics and computer science. Intuitively, type I errors can be thought of as errors of ''commission'', i.e. the researcher unluc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Power
In statistics, the power of a binary hypothesis test is the probability that the test correctly rejects the null hypothesis (H_0) when a specific alternative hypothesis (H_1) is true. It is commonly denoted by 1-\beta, and represents the chances of a true positive detection conditional on the actual existence of an effect to detect. Statistical power ranges from 0 to 1, and as the power of a test increases, the probability \beta of making a type II error by wrongly failing to reject the null hypothesis decreases. Notation This article uses the following notation: * ''β'' = probability of a Type II error, known as a "false negative" * 1 − ''β'' = probability of a "true positive", i.e., correctly rejecting the null hypothesis. "1 − ''β''" is also known as the power of the test. * ''α'' = probability of a Type I error, known as a "false positive" * 1 − ''α'' = probability of a "true negative", i.e., correctly not rejecting the null hypothesis Description For a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Intersection (set Theory)
In set theory, the intersection of two sets A and B, denoted by A \cap B, is the set containing all elements of A that also belong to B or equivalently, all elements of B that also belong to A. Notation and terminology Intersection is written using the symbol "\cap" between the terms; that is, in infix notation. For example: \\cap\=\ \\cap\=\varnothing \Z\cap\N=\N \\cap\N=\ The intersection of more than two sets (generalized intersection) can be written as: \bigcap_^n A_i which is similar to capital-sigma notation. For an explanation of the symbols used in this article, refer to the table of mathematical symbols. Definition The intersection of two sets A and B, denoted by A \cap B, is the set of all objects that are members of both the sets A and B. In symbols: A \cap B = \. That is, x is an element of the intersection A \cap B if and only if x is both an element of A and an element of B. For example: * The intersection of the sets and is . * The number 9 is in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Systematic Bias
Systematic may refer to: Science * Short for systematic error * Systematic fault * Systematic bias, errors that are not determined by chance but are introduced by an inaccuracy (involving either the observation or measurement process) inherent to the system * Something related to systematics or taxonomy, sub-discipline of biology Economy * Systematic trading (also known as mechanical trading) is a way of defining trade goals, risk controls and rules that can make investment and trading decisions in a methodical way * Systematic Paris-Region: French business cluster devoted to complex systems Music * Systematic (band): American hard rock band * Systematic Chaos: ninth studio album by American progressive metal band Dream Theater Dream Theater is an American progressive metal band formed in 1985 under the name Majesty by John Petrucci, John Myung and Mike Portnoy while they attended Berklee College of Music in Boston, Massachusetts. They subsequently dropped ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Weather Radar
Weather radar, also called weather surveillance radar (WSR) and Doppler weather radar, is a type of radar used to locate precipitation, calculate its motion, and estimate its type (rain, snow, hail etc.). Modern weather radars are mostly pulse-Doppler radars, capable of detecting the motion of rain droplets in addition to the intensity of the precipitation. Both types of data can be analyzed to determine the structure of storms and their potential to cause severe weather. During World War II, radar operators discovered that weather was causing echoes on their screen, masking potential enemy targets. Techniques were developed to filter them, but scientists began to study the phenomenon. Soon after the war, surplus radars were used to detect precipitation. Since then, weather radar has evolved on its own and is now used by national weather services, research departments in universities, and in television stations' weather departments. Raw images are routinely used and specialize ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rain Gauge
A rain gauge (also known as udometer, pluvia metior, pluviometer, ombrometer, and hyetometer) is an instrument used by meteorologists and hydrologists to gather and measure the amount of liquid precipitation over a predefined area, over a period of time. It is used for determining the depth of precipitation (usually in mm) that occurs over a unit area and thus measuring rainfall amount. History The first known rainfall records were kept by the Ancient Greeks, at around 500 BCE. People living in India began to record rainfall in 400 BCE Ian Strangeways, A History of rain gauges, TerraData, 2010 The readings were correlated against expected growth. In the Arthashastra, used for example in Magadha, precise standards were set as to grain production. Each of the state storehouses were equipped with a rain gauge to classify land for taxation purposes. In 1247, the Song Chinese mathematician and inventor Qin Jiushao invented Tianchi basin rain and snow gauges to reference rain, snowf ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is the premier scientific and professional organization in the United States promoting and disseminating information about the atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic sciences. Its mission is to advance the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Background Founded on December 29, 1919, by Charles Franklin Brooks at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in St. Louis and incorporated on January 21, 1920, the American Meteorological Society has a membership of more than 13,000 weather, water, and climate scientists, professionals, researchers, educators, students, and enthusiasts. AMS offers numerous programs and services in the sphere of water, weather and climate sciences. It publishes eleven atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic journals (in print and online), sponsors as many as twelve conferences annually, and administers professiona ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bureau Of Meteorology
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM or BoM) is an executive agency of the Australian Government responsible for providing weather services to Australia and surrounding areas. It was established in 1906 under the Meteorology Act, and brought together the state meteorological services that existed before then. The states officially transferred their weather recording responsibilities to the Bureau of Meteorology on 1 January 1908. History The Bureau of Meteorology was established on 1 January 1908 following the passage of the ''Meteorology Act 1906''. Prior to Federation in 1901, each colony had had its own meteorological service, with all but two colonies also having a subsection devoted to astronomy. In August 1905, federal home affairs minister Littleton Groom surveyed state governments for their willingness to cede control, finding South Australia and Victoria unwilling. However, at a ministerial conference in April 1906 the state governments agreed to transfer responsibility for ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Of Precipitation
Definitions U.S. National Weather Service According to the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), PoP is the probability of exceedance that more than of precipitation will fall in a single spot, averaged over the forecast area. The PoP measure is meaningless unless it is associated with a period of time. NWS forecasts commonly use PoP defined over 12-hour periods (PoP12), though 6-hour periods (PoP6) and other measures are also published. A "daytime" PoP12 means from 6 am to 6 pm. The NWS also provides hourly forecasts. The hourly PoP can be similar to the daily PoP and vary little, or it can vary dramatically. An example of an event where the hourly PoPs are not independent is a hurricane. In that case, there may be a 1 in 5 chance of the hurricane hitting a given stretch of coast, but if it does arrive there will be rain for several hours. Other US forecasters AccuWeather's definition is based on the probability at the forecast area's official rain gauge. There is also a pro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
