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Planning Fallacy
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned. The bias affects predictions only about one's own tasks. On the other hand, when outside observers predict task completion times, they tend to exhibit a pessimistic bias, overestimating the time needed. The planning fallacy involves estimates of task completion times more optimistic than those encountered in similar projects in the past. The planning fallacy was first proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. In 2003, Lovallo and Kahneman proposed an expanded definition as the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions. According to this de ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Optimism Bias
Optimism bias or optimistic bias is a cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. It is also known as unrealistic optimism or comparative optimism. It is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality, and age. Autistic people are less susceptible to this kind of bias. It has also been reported in other animals, such as rats and birds. Four factors can cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood. The optimistic bias is seen in a number of situations. For example: people believing that they are less at risk of being a crime victim, smokers believing that they are less likely to contract lung cancer or disease than other smokers, first-time bungee jumpers believing that they are less at risk of an injury than other jumpers, or traders who think they are less exposed to potential l ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Scale (ratio)
The scale ratio of a model represents the proportional ratio of a linear dimension of the model to the same feature of the original. Examples include a 3-dimensional scale model of a building or the scale drawings of the elevations or plans of a building. In such cases the scale is dimensionless and exact throughout the model or drawing. The scale can be expressed in four ways: in words (a lexical scale), as a ratio, as a fraction and as a graphical (bar) scale. Thus on an architect's drawing one might read 'one centimeter to one meter', 1:100, 1/100, or . A bar scale would also normally appear on the drawing. Colon may also be substituted with a specific, slightly raised ratio symbol , ie. . General representation Generally, a representation may involve more than one scale at the same time. For example, a drawing showing a new road in elevation might use different horizontal and vertical scales. An elevation of a bridge might be annotated with arrows with a length proportion ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Berlin Brandenburg Airport
Berlin Brandenburg Airport () () is an international airport in Schönefeld, just south of the Germany, German capital and state of Berlin, in the state of Brandenburg. Named after the former Mayor of West Berlin, West Berlin mayor and Chancellor of Germany, West German chancellor Willy Brandt, it is located south-east of the city centre and serves as a base for Condor (airline), Condor, easyJet, Eurowings, Ryanair and Sundair. It mostly has flights to European metropolitan and leisure destinations as well as a number of intercontinental services. The new airport replaced Berlin Tempelhof Airport, Tempelhof, Berlin Schönefeld Airport, Schönefeld, and Berlin Tegel Airport, Tegel airports (with the former already closed in 2008, followed by the latter two in 2020), and became the single commercial airport serving Berlin and the surrounding States of Germany, State of Brandenburg, an area with 6 million inhabitants. With projected annual passenger numbers of around 34&nbs ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Denver International Airport
Denver International Airport , often referred to by locals as DIA, is an international airport in the Western United States, primarily serving metropolitan Denver, Colorado, as well as the greater Front Range Urban Corridor. At , Effective June 12, 2025. it is the largest airport in the Western Hemisphere by land area and the second largest on Earth, behind King Fahd International Airport. Runway 16R/34L, with a length of , is the longest public use runway in North America and the seventh longest on Earth. The airport is driving distance northeast of Downtown Denver, farther than the former Stapleton International Airport which DEN replaced; the airport is actually closer to the Aurora, Colorado, City of Aurora than central Denver, and many airport-related services, such as hotels, are located in Aurora. Opened in 1995, DEN serves 27 airlines (as of 2025) providing nonstop service to 231 destinations throughout the Americas, Europe, and Asia; it was the fourth airport in the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Central Artery
The Central Artery (officially the John F. Fitzgerald Expressway) is the concurrent section of Interstate 93, US 1 and Route 3 through Downtown Boston, Massachusetts, United States. The modern-day Artery, built as part of the Big Dig from 1995 until 2003, begins at the Southeast Expressway in the South End. Traveling north, it has an interchange with the east–west Massachusetts Turnpike (I-90), and travels beneath the Financial District and Government Center through the O'Neill Tunnel. Route 3 exits onto the Leverett Connector within the tunnel in Charlestown; US 1 exits aboveground from the Zakim Bridge onto the Tobin Bridge, and I-93 continues on the Northern Expressway toward New Hampshire beyond the bridge. The original Artery, constructed in the 1950s, was named after John F. Fitzgerald; it was partly elevated and partly tunneled. Its reputation for congestion inspired the local nicknames "The Distressway," "the largest parking lot in the world", and "the ot ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Big Dig
The Big Dig was a megaproject in Boston that rerouted the then elevated Central Artery of Interstate 93 that cut across Boston into the O'Neill Tunnel and built the Ted Williams Tunnel to extend Massachusetts Turnpike, Interstate 90 to Logan International Airport. Those two projects were the origin of the official name, the Central Artery/Tunnel Project (CA/T Project). The project constructed the Leonard P. Zakim Bunker Hill Memorial Bridge, Zakim Bunker Hill Bridge over the Charles River, created the Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy Greenway, Rose Kennedy Greenway in the space vacated by the previous I-93 elevated roadway, and funded more than a dozen projects to improve the region's public transportation system. Planning for the project began in 1982. Construction work was carried out between 1991 and 2006. The project concluded in December 2007. The project's general contractor was Bechtel, with Parsons Brinckerhoff as the engineers, who worked as a consortium, both overseen by the Ma ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Eurofighter Typhoon
The Eurofighter Typhoon is a European multinational twin-engine, supersonic, canard delta wing, multirole fighter. The Typhoon was designed originally as an air-superiority fighter and is manufactured by a consortium of Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo that conducts the majority of the project through a joint holding company, Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH. The NATO Eurofighter and Tornado Management Agency, representing the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain, manages the project and is the prime customer. The aircraft's development effectively began in 1983 with the Future European Fighter Aircraft programme, a multinational collaboration among the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Previously, Germany, Italy and the UK had jointly developed and deployed the Panavia Tornado combat aircraft and desired to collaborate on a new project, with additional participating EU nations. Disagreements over design authority and operational requirements however, led France to leave the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sydney Opera House
The Sydney Opera House is a multi-venue Performing arts center, performing arts centre in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Located on the foreshore of Sydney Harbour, it is widely regarded as one of the world's most famous and distinctive buildings, and a masterpiece of 20th-century architecture. Designed by Danish architect Jørn Utzon and completed by an Australian architectural team headed by Peter Hall (architect), Peter Hall, the building was formally opened by Elizabeth II, Queen Elizabeth II on 20 October 1973, 16 years after Utzon's 1957 selection as winner of an international design competition. The Government of New South Wales, led by the Premier of New South Wales, premier, Joseph Cahill, authorised work to begin in 1958 with Utzon directing construction. The government's decision to build Utzon's design is often overshadowed by circumstances that followed, including cost and scheduling overruns as well as the architect's ultimate resignation. The building and i ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sydney Opera House - Construction - Phase 2 1966
Sydney is the capital city of the States and territories of Australia, state of New South Wales and the List of cities in Australia by population, most populous city in Australia. Located on Australia's east coast, the metropolis surrounds Sydney Harbour and extends about 80 km (50 mi) from the Pacific Ocean in the east to the Blue Mountains (New South Wales), Blue Mountains in the west, and about 80 km (50 mi) from Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park and the Hawkesbury River in the north and north-west, to the Royal National Park and Macarthur, New South Wales, Macarthur in the south and south-west. Greater Sydney consists of 658 suburbs, spread across 33 local government areas. Residents of the city are colloquially known as "Sydneysiders". The estimated population in June 2024 was 5,557,233, which is about 66% of the state's population. Estimated resident population, 30 June 2017. The city's nicknames include the Emerald City and the Harbour City. There is ev ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics. Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the reference class problem. Overview Kahneman and Tversky Decision Research Technical Report PTR-1042-77-6. In found that human judgment is generally optimistic due to overconfidence and insufficient consideration of distributional information about outcomes. People tend to underestimate the costs, completion times, and risks of planned actions, whereas they tend to overestimate the benefi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Implementation Intention
An implementation intention is a self-regulatory strategy in the form of if-then-plans that can lead to better goal attainment, as well as create useful habits and modify problematic behaviors. It is subordinate to goal intentions as it specifies the ''when'', ''where'' and ''how'' portions of goal-directed behavior. In its most basic formulation, implementation intentions address everyday situations where a person could respond more effectively and more sustainably towards a goal (e.g. improving a personal relationship), and the technique acknowledges the fact that most have no troubles defining concrete and attainable goals as well as plans, but often have trouble identifying a situation where an action would be very effective for attaining the goal. Though if-then-plans create habits, the key difference is that the technique creates habits consciously. Each if-then-plan creates a new habit which, in turn, improves the user's life in one or several aspects. The concept of im ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Golden Gate Bridge
The Golden Gate Bridge is a suspension bridge spanning the Golden Gate, the strait connecting San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean in California, United States. The structure links San Francisco—the northern tip of the San Francisco Peninsula—to Marin County, California, Marin County, carrying both U.S. Route 101 in California, U.S. Route 101 and California State Route 1 across the strait. It also carries pedestrian and bicycle traffic, and is designated as part of U.S. Bicycle Route 95. Recognized by the American Society of Civil Engineers as one of the Wonders of the World, Wonders of the Modern World, the bridge is one of the most internationally recognized symbols of San Francisco and California. The idea of a fixed link between San Francisco and Marin had gained increasing popularity during the late 19th century, but it was not until the early 20th century that such a link became feasible. Joseph Strauss (engineer), Joseph Strauss served as chief engineer for the p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
