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Large-scale Macroeconometric Model
Following the development of Keynesian economics, applied economics began developing forecasting models based on economic data including national income and product accounting data. In contrast with typical textbook models, these large-scale macroeconometric models used large amounts of data and based forecasts on past correlations instead of theoretical relations. These models estimated the relations between different macroeconomic variables using regression analysis on time series data. These models grew to include hundreds or thousands of equations describing the evolution of hundreds or thousands of prices and quantities over time, making computers essential for their solution. While the choice of which variables to include in each equation was partly guided by economic theory (for example, including past income as a determinant of consumption, as suggested by the theory of adaptive expectations), variable inclusion was mostly determined on purely empirical grounds. Large-scal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Keynesian Economics
Keynesian economics ( ; sometimes Keynesianism, named after British economist John Maynard Keynes) are the various macroeconomics, macroeconomic theories and Economic model, models of how aggregate demand (total spending in the economy) strongly influences Output (economics), economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the aggregate supply, productive capacity of the economy. It is influenced by a host of factors that sometimes behave erratically and impact production, employment, and inflation. Keynesian economists generally argue that aggregate demand is volatile and unstable and that, consequently, a market economy often experiences inefficient macroeconomic outcomes, including economic recession, recessions when demand is too low and inflation when demand is too high. Further, they argue that these economic fluctuations can be mitigated by economic policy responses coordinated between a government and their central bank. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Jan Tinbergen
Jan Tinbergen ( , ; 12 April 1903 – 9 June 1994) was a Dutch economist who was awarded the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969, which he shared with Ragnar Frisch for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes. He is widely considered to be one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers of econometrics.Magnus, Jan & Mary S. Morgan (1987) ''The ET Interview: Professor J. Tinbergen'' in: 'Econometric Theory 3, 1987, 117-142. His important contributions to econometrics include the development of the first macroeconometric models, the solution of the identification problem, and the understanding of dynamic models. Tinbergen was a founding trustee of Economists for Peace and Security. In 1945, he founded the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and was the agency's first director. Biography Tinbergen was the eldest of five children of Dirk Cornelis Tinbergen and Jean ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Consensus Forecast
A consensus forecast is a prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. They are used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, and are also known as ''combining forecasts'', ''forecast averaging'' or ''model averaging'' (in econometrics and statistics) and Committee machine, ''committee machines'', ''ensemble averaging'' or ''expert aggregation'' (in machine learning). Applications can range from forecasting the weather to predicting the annual Gross Domestic Product of a country or the number of cars a company or an individual dealer is likely to sell in a year. While forecasts are often made for future values of a time series, they can also be for one-off events such as the outcome of a presidential election or a football match. Background Forecasting plays a key role in any organisation's planning process as it provides insight into uncertainty. Through simulation ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) is a macroeconomics, macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microfoundations, microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as economic policy, policy effects and market shocks. Terminology As a practical matter, people often use the term "DSGE models" to refer to a particular class of classically quantitative econometrics, econometric models of business cycles or economic growth called real business cycle (RBC) models.Christiano (2018) DSGE models were initially proposed in the 1980s by Kydland & Prescott, and Long & Plosser;Long & Plosser (1983) Charles Plosser described RBC models as a precurso ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Time Series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements. Time series ''analysis'' comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series ''f ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Macroeconomic Model
A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices. Macroeconomic models may be logical, mathematical, and/or computational; the different types of macroeconomic models serve different purposes and have different advantages and disadvantages. Macroeconomic models may be used to clarify and illustrate basic theoretical principles; they may be used to test, compare, and quantify different macroeconomic theories; they may be used to produce "what if" scenarios (usually to predict the effects of changes in monetary, fiscal, or other macroeconomic policies); and they may be used to generate economic forecasts. Thus, macroeconomic models are widely ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Nobel Prize In Economics
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (), commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics(), is an award in the field of economic sciences administered by the Nobel Foundation, established in 1968 by Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden's central bank) to celebrate its 300th anniversary and in memory of Alfred Nobel. Although the Prize in Economic Sciences was not one of the original five Nobel Prizes established by Alfred Nobel's will, it is considered a member of the Nobel Prize system, and is administered and referred to along with the Nobel Prizes by the Nobel Foundation. Winners of the Prize in Economic Sciences are chosen in a similar manner to and announced alongside the Nobel Prize recipients, and receive the Prize in Economic Sciences at the Nobel Prize Award Ceremony. The laureates of the Prize in Economic Sciences are selected by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Lawrence Klein
Lawrence Robert Klein (September 14, 1920 – October 20, 2013) was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks. Life and career Klein was born in Omaha, Nebraska, the son of Blanche (née Monheit) and Leo Byron Klein. He went on to graduate from Los Angeles City College, where he learned calculus; the University of Californi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Project LINK
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc (WEFA Inc) was an economics forecasting and consulting organization founded by Nobel Prize winner Lawrence Klein. WEFA Inc was a spinoff of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, where Klein taught. WEFA Inc traced an interesting path (see below for full details) from its predecessor in 1961 (the Economic Research Unit, discussed below), its initial launch in 1969 (as Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates Inc), to its ultimate merger with DRI (formerly Data Resources Inc.) forming Global Insight in 2001, and subsequent to that, Global Insight's acquisition in 2008 by IHS Inc. Origins Incorporated in 1969 by the Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania as a "not for profit" organization, WEFA Inc was an outgrowth of the Economics Research Unit (ERU) located in the economics department of the University of Pennsylvania. The ERU, a research unit devoted to graduate economics education, was originally sponsored ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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World War II
World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the world's countries participated, with many nations mobilising all resources in pursuit of total war. Tanks in World War II, Tanks and Air warfare of World War II, aircraft played major roles, enabling the strategic bombing of cities and delivery of the Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, first and only nuclear weapons ever used in war. World War II is the List of wars by death toll, deadliest conflict in history, causing World War II casualties, the death of 70 to 85 million people, more than half of whom were civilians. Millions died in genocides, including the Holocaust, and by massacres, starvation, and disease. After the Allied victory, Allied-occupied Germany, Germany, Allied-occupied Austria, Austria, Occupation of Japan, Japan, a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Northwestern Europe, off the coast of European mainland, the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The UK includes the island of Great Britain, the north-eastern part of the island of Ireland, and most of List of islands of the United Kingdom, the smaller islands within the British Isles, covering . Northern Ireland shares Republic of Ireland–United Kingdom border, a land border with the Republic of Ireland; otherwise, the UK is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the English Channel, the Celtic Sea and the Irish Sea. It maintains sovereignty over the British Overseas Territories, which are located across various oceans and seas globally. The UK had an estimated population of over 68.2 million people in 2023. The capital and largest city of both England and the UK is London. The cities o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |