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Decision Wizard
In decision analysis, the clarity test (or clairvoyant test) is a test of how well a model element is defined. Although nothing (outside a formal system) can be completely defined, the clarity test allows the decision participants to determine whether such elements as variables, events, outcomes, and alternatives are sufficiently well defined to make the decision at hand. In general, a model element is well defined if a knowledgeable individual can answer questions about the model element without asking further clarifying questions. More precisely, Howard defines the clarity test by saying that a quantity or event is clearly defined—it passes the clarity test—if a "clairvoyant would be able to say whether or not the event in question occurred or, in the case of a variable, the value of the variable." Howard defines the clairvoyant as "a person who knew the future, who had access to all future newspapers, readings of physical devices, or any other determinable quantity." In la ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision; and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, and other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders. History In 1931, mathematical philosopher Frank Ramsey pioneered the idea of subjective probability as a representation of an individual’s beliefs or uncertainties. Then, in the 1940s, mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern developed an axiomatic basis for utility theory as a way of expressing an individua ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Formal System
A formal system is an abstract structure used for inferring theorems from axioms according to a set of rules. These rules, which are used for carrying out the inference of theorems from axioms, are the logical calculus of the formal system. A formal system is essentially an "axiomatic system". In 1921, David Hilbert proposed to use such a system as the foundation for the knowledge in mathematics. A formal system may represent a well-defined system of abstract thought. The term ''formalism'' is sometimes a rough synonym for ''formal system'', but it also refers to a given style of notation, for example, Paul Dirac's bra–ket notation. Background Each formal system is described by primitive symbols (which collectively form an alphabet) to finitely construct a formal language from a set of axioms through inferential rules of formation. The system thus consists of valid formulas built up through finite combinations of the primitive symbols—combinations that are formed fro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Participant
Decision may refer to: Law and politics *Judgment (law), as the outcome of a legal case *Landmark decision, the outcome of a case that sets a legal precedent * ''Per curiam'' decision, by a court with multiple judges Books * ''Decision'' (novel), a 1983 political novel by Allen Drury * ''The Decision'' (novel), a 1998 book in the ''Animorphs'' series Sports *Decision (baseball), a statistical credit earned by a baseball pitcher *Decisions in combat sports *Decisions (professional wrestling), by which a wrestler scores a point against his opponent Film and TV * ''Decision'' (TV series), an American anthology TV series * ''The Decision'' (play), by the 20th-century German dramatist Bertolt Brecht * ''The Decision'' (TV special), in which NBA player LeBron James announced that he would switch teams * "The Decision" (song), by English indie rock band Young Knives Music Albums * ''Decisions'' (George Adams and Don Pullen album), 1984 * ''Decisions'' (The Winans album), 1987 Songs ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Clarity Of Thought
Clarity may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Fictional entities * Clarity, a magic spell in the online game ''EverQuest'' * Clarity, a fictional drug from the film ''Minority Report'' Music Albums * ''Clarity'' (Jimmy Eat World album) * ''Clarity'' (Kim Petras album) * ''Clarity'' (Sifow album) * ''Clarity'' (Zedd album) * ''Clarity'', a 2010 album by Article One Songs * "Clarity" (John Mayer song), a 2003 song by John Mayer * "Clarity" (Senakah song) * "Clarity" (Zedd song), a 2012 song by Russian-German electronic dance music producer Zedd featuring the vocals of British singer Foxes * "Clarity", a song by All That Remains from the 2002 album ''Behind Silence and Solitude'' * "Clarity", a song by Attila from the 2021 album '' Closure'' * "Clarity", a song by Kim Petras from the 2019 album of the same name * "Clarity", an instrumental song by Linkin Park from ''LP Underground 12'' * "Clarity", a song by Northlane from the 2022 album '' Obsidian'' * "Clarity", a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Uncertainty
Uncertainty refers to Epistemology, epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, Laziness, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science. Concepts Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: Uncertainty The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. ;Measurement of uncertainty: A set of po ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Deterministic Preference
Determinism is a philosophical view, where all events are determined completely by previously existing causes. Deterministic theories throughout the history of philosophy have developed from diverse and sometimes overlapping motives and considerations. The opposite of determinism is some kind of indeterminism (otherwise called nondeterminism) or randomness. Determinism is often contrasted with free will, although some philosophers claim that the two are compatible.For example, see Determinism is often used to mean ''causal determinism'', which in physics is known as cause-and-effect. This is the concept that events within a given paradigm are bound by causality in such a way that any state of an object or event is completely determined by its prior states. This meaning can be distinguished from other varieties of determinism mentioned below. Debates about determinism often concern the scope of determined systems; some maintain that the entire universe is a single determinat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision; and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, and other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders. History In 1931, mathematical philosopher Frank Ramsey pioneered the idea of subjective probability as a representation of an individual’s beliefs or uncertainties. Then, in the 1940s, mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern developed an axiomatic basis for utility theory as a way of expressing an individua ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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