Cumulative Error
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Cumulative Error
In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of Variable (mathematics), variables' uncertainty, uncertainties (or Errors and residuals in statistics, errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function (mathematics), function based on them. When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have Observational error, uncertainties due to measurement limitations (e.g., instrument Accuracy and precision, precision) which propagate due to the combination of variables in the function. The uncertainty ''u'' can be expressed in a number of ways. It may be defined by the absolute error . Uncertainties can also be defined by the relative error , which is usually written as a percentage. Most commonly, the uncertainty on a quantity is quantified in terms of the standard deviation, , which is the positive square root of the variance. The value of a quantity and its error are then expressed as an interval . However, ...
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Statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments. When census data (comprising every member of the target population) cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from the sample ...
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Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be deterministic in principle. The name comes from the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco, where the primary developer of the method, mathematician Stanisław Ulam, was inspired by his uncle's gambling habits. Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three distinct problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution. They can also be used to model phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs, such as calculating the risk of a nuclear power plant failure. Monte Carlo methods are often implemented using computer simulations, and they can provide approximate solutions to problems that are otherwise intractable or too complex to analyze mathematically. Monte Carlo methods are widely used in va ...
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Uncertainty Quantification
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known. An example would be to predict the acceleration of a human body in a head-on crash with another car: even if the speed was exactly known, small differences in the manufacturing of individual cars, how tightly every bolt has been tightened, etc., will lead to different results that can only be predicted in a statistical sense. Many problems in the natural sciences and engineering are also rife with sources of uncertainty. Computer experiments on computer simulations are the most common approach to study problems in uncertainty quantification. Sources Uncertainty can enter mathematical models and experimental measurements in various contexts. One way to categorize the sources of uncertainty is to consider: ; Parame ...
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Bias Of An Estimator
In statistics, the bias of an estimator (or bias function) is the difference between this estimator's expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated. An estimator or decision rule with zero bias is called ''unbiased''. In statistics, "bias" is an property of an estimator. Bias is a distinct concept from consistency: consistent estimators converge in probability to the true value of the parameter, but may be biased or unbiased (see bias versus consistency for more). All else being equal, an unbiased estimator is preferable to a biased estimator, although in practice, biased estimators (with generally small bias) are frequently used. When a biased estimator is used, bounds of the bias are calculated. A biased estimator may be used for various reasons: because an unbiased estimator does not exist without further assumptions about a population; because an estimator is difficult to compute (as in unbiased estimation of standard deviation); because a biased esti ...
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Jacobian Matrix
In vector calculus, the Jacobian matrix (, ) of a vector-valued function of several variables is the matrix of all its first-order partial derivatives. If this matrix is square, that is, if the number of variables equals the number of components of function values, then its determinant is called the Jacobian determinant. Both the matrix and (if applicable) the determinant are often referred to simply as the Jacobian. They are named after Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi. The Jacobian matrix is the natural generalization to vector valued functions of several variables of the derivative and the differential of a usual function. This generalization includes generalizations of the inverse function theorem and the implicit function theorem, where the non-nullity of the derivative is replaced by the non-nullity of the Jacobian determinant, and the multiplicative inverse of the derivative is replaced by the inverse of the Jacobian matrix. The Jacobian determinant is fundamentally used f ...
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Matrix Notation
In mathematics, a matrix (: matrices) is a rectangular array or table of numbers, symbols, or expressions, with elements or entries arranged in rows and columns, which is used to represent a mathematical object or property of such an object. For example, \begin1 & 9 & -13 \\20 & 5 & -6 \end is a matrix with two rows and three columns. This is often referred to as a "two-by-three matrix", a " matrix", or a matrix of dimension . Matrices are commonly used in linear algebra, where they represent linear maps. In geometry, matrices are widely used for specifying and representing geometric transformations (for example rotations) and coordinate changes. In numerical analysis, many computational problems are solved by reducing them to a matrix computation, and this often involves computing with matrices of huge dimensions. Matrices are used in most areas of mathematics and scientific fields, either directly, or through their use in geometry and numerical analysis. '' Square matr ...
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Partial Derivative
In mathematics, a partial derivative of a function of several variables is its derivative with respect to one of those variables, with the others held constant (as opposed to the total derivative, in which all variables are allowed to vary). Partial derivatives are used in vector calculus and differential geometry. The partial derivative of a function f(x, y, \dots) with respect to the variable x is variously denoted by It can be thought of as the rate of change of the function in the x-direction. Sometimes, for the partial derivative of z with respect to x is denoted as \tfrac. Since a partial derivative generally has the same arguments as the original function, its functional dependence is sometimes explicitly signified by the notation, such as in: f'_x(x, y, \ldots), \frac (x, y, \ldots). The symbol used to denote partial derivatives is ∂. One of the first known uses of this symbol in mathematics is by Marquis de Condorcet from 1770, who used it for partial differ ...
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Taylor Series
In mathematics, the Taylor series or Taylor expansion of a function is an infinite sum of terms that are expressed in terms of the function's derivatives at a single point. For most common functions, the function and the sum of its Taylor series are equal near this point. Taylor series are named after Brook Taylor, who introduced them in 1715. A Taylor series is also called a Maclaurin series when 0 is the point where the derivatives are considered, after Colin Maclaurin, who made extensive use of this special case of Taylor series in the 18th century. The partial sum formed by the first terms of a Taylor series is a polynomial of degree that is called the th Taylor polynomial of the function. Taylor polynomials are approximations of a function, which become generally more accurate as increases. Taylor's theorem gives quantitative estimates on the error introduced by the use of such approximations. If the Taylor series of a function is convergent, its sum is the limit ...
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Interval Propagation
In numerical mathematics, interval propagation or interval constraint propagation is the problem of contracting interval domains associated to variables of R without removing any value that is consistent with a set of constraints (i.e., equations or inequalities). It can be used to Propagation of uncertainty, propagate uncertainties in the situation where set estimation, errors are represented by intervals. Interval propagation considers an estimation problem as a constraint satisfaction problem. Atomic contractors A contractor associated to an equation involving the variables ''x''1,...,''x''''n'' is an operator which contracts the intervals [''x''1],..., [''x''''n''] (that are supposed to enclose the ''x''''i'''s) without removing any value for the variables that is consistent with the equation. A contractor is said to be ''atomic'' if it is not built as a composition of other contractors. The main theory that is used to build atomic contractors are based on Interval arithmet ...
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