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Bayesian Linear Regression
Bayesian linear regression is a type of conditional modeling in which the mean of one variable is described by a linear combination of other variables, with the goal of obtaining the posterior probability of the regression coefficients (as well as other parameters describing the distribution of the regressand) and ultimately allowing the out-of-sample prediction of the regressand (often labelled y) '' conditional on'' observed values of the regressors (usually X). The simplest and most widely used version of this model is the ''normal linear model'', in which y given X is distributed Gaussian. In this model, and under a particular choice of prior probabilities for the parameters—so-called conjugate priors—the posterior can be found analytically. With more arbitrarily chosen priors, the posteriors generally have to be approximated. Model setup Consider a standard linear regression problem, in which for i = 1, \ldots, n we specify the mean of the conditional distribution o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Conditional Model
Discriminative models, also referred to as conditional models, are a class of logistical models used for classification or regression. They distinguish decision boundaries through observed data, such as pass/fail, win/lose, alive/dead or healthy/sick. Typical discriminative models include logistic regression (LR), conditional random fields (CRFs) (specified over an undirected graph), decision trees, and many others. Typical generative model approaches include naive Bayes classifiers, Gaussian mixture models, variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks and others. Definition Unlike generative modelling, which studies from the joint probability P(x,y), discriminative modeling studies the P(y, x) or maps the given unobserved variable (target) x to a class label y dependent on the observed variables (training samples). For example, in object recognition, x is likely to be a vector of raw pixels (or features extracted from the raw pixels of the image). Within a proba ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Frequentist
Frequentist inference is a type of statistical inference based in frequentist probability, which treats “probability” in equivalent terms to “frequency” and draws conclusions from sample-data by means of emphasizing the frequency or proportion of findings in the data. Frequentist-inference underlies frequentist statistics, in which the well-established methodologies of statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals are founded. History of frequentist statistics The history of frequentist statistics is more recent than its prevailing philosophical rival, Bayesian statistics. Frequentist statistics were largely developed in the early 20th century and have recently developed to become the dominant paradigm in inferential statistics, while Bayesian statistics were invented in the 19th century. Despite this dominance, there is no agreement as to whether frequentism is better than Bayesian statistics, with a vocal minority of professionals studying statistical infer ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Monte Carlo Sampling
Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be deterministic in principle. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or impossible to use other approaches. Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution. In physics-related problems, Monte Carlo methods are useful for simulating systems with many coupled degrees of freedom, such as fluids, disordered materials, strongly coupled solids, and cellular structures (see cellular Potts model, interacting particle systems, McKean–Vlasov processes, kinetic models of gases). Other examples include modeling phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs such as the calculation of risk ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Approximate Bayesian Computation
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics that can be used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and ap ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Gamma Function
In mathematics, the gamma function (represented by , the capital letter gamma from the Greek alphabet) is one commonly used extension of the factorial function to complex numbers. The gamma function is defined for all complex numbers except the non-positive integers. For every positive integer , \Gamma(n) = (n-1)!\,. Derived by Daniel Bernoulli, for complex numbers with a positive real part, the gamma function is defined via a convergent improper integral: \Gamma(z) = \int_0^\infty t^ e^\,dt, \ \qquad \Re(z) > 0\,. The gamma function then is defined as the analytic continuation of this integral function to a meromorphic function that is holomorphic in the whole complex plane except zero and the negative integers, where the function has simple poles. The gamma function has no zeroes, so the reciprocal gamma function is an entire function. In fact, the gamma function corresponds to the Mellin transform of the negative exponential function: \Gamma(z) = \mathcal M ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Model Comparison
The Bayes factor is a ratio of two competing statistical models represented by their marginal likelihood, and is used to quantify the support for one model over the other. The models in questions can have a common set of parameters, such as a null hypothesis and an alternative, but this is not necessary; for instance, it could also be a non-linear model compared to its linear approximation. The Bayes factor can be thought of as a Bayesian analog to the likelihood-ratio test, but since it uses the (integrated) marginal likelihood instead of the maximized likelihood, both tests only coincide under simple hypotheses (e.g., two specific parameter values). Also, in contrast with null hypothesis significance testing, Bayes factors support evaluation of evidence ''in favor'' of a null hypothesis, rather than only allowing the null to be rejected or not rejected. Although conceptually simple, the computation of the Bayes factor can be challenging depending on the complexity of the model a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Marginal Likelihood
A marginal likelihood is a likelihood function that has been integrated over the parameter space. In Bayesian statistics, it represents the probability of generating the observed sample from a prior and is therefore often referred to as model evidence or simply evidence. Concept Given a set of independent identically distributed data points \mathbf=(x_1,\ldots,x_n), where x_i \sim p(x, \theta) according to some probability distribution parameterized by \theta, where \theta itself is a random variable described by a distribution, i.e. \theta \sim p(\theta\mid\alpha), the marginal likelihood in general asks what the probability p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) is, where \theta has been marginalized out (integrated out): :p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) = \int_\theta p(\mathbf\mid\theta) \, p(\theta\mid\alpha)\ \operatorname\!\theta The above definition is phrased in the context of Bayesian statistics in which case p(\theta\mid\alpha) is called prior density and p(\mathbf\mid\theta) is the likelihood. T ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Model Evidence
A marginal likelihood is a likelihood function that has been integrated over the parameter space. In Bayesian statistics, it represents the probability of generating the observed sample from a prior and is therefore often referred to as model evidence or simply evidence. Concept Given a set of independent identically distributed data points \mathbf=(x_1,\ldots,x_n), where x_i \sim p(x, \theta) according to some probability distribution parameterized by \theta, where \theta itself is a random variable described by a distribution, i.e. \theta \sim p(\theta\mid\alpha), the marginal likelihood in general asks what the probability p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) is, where \theta has been marginalized out (integrated out): :p(\mathbf\mid\alpha) = \int_\theta p(\mathbf\mid\theta) \, p(\theta\mid\alpha)\ \operatorname\!\theta The above definition is phrased in the context of Bayesian statistics in which case p(\theta\mid\alpha) is called prior density and p(\mathbf\mid\theta) is the likelihood. T ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Quadratic Form (statistics)
In multivariate statistics, if \varepsilon is a vector of n random variables, and \Lambda is an n-dimensional symmetric matrix, then the scalar quantity \varepsilon^T\Lambda\varepsilon is known as a quadratic form in \varepsilon. Expectation It can be shown that :\operatorname\left varepsilon^T\Lambda\varepsilon\right\operatorname\left Lambda \Sigma\right+ \mu^T\Lambda\mu where \mu and \Sigma are the expected value and variance-covariance matrix of \varepsilon, respectively, and tr denotes the trace of a matrix. This result only depends on the existence of \mu and \Sigma; in particular, normality of \varepsilon is ''not'' required. A book treatment of the topic of quadratic forms in random variables is that of Mathai and Provost. Proof Since the quadratic form is a scalar quantity, \varepsilon^T\Lambda\varepsilon = \operatorname(\varepsilon^T\Lambda\varepsilon). Next, by the cyclic property of the trace operator, : \operatorname operatorname(\varepsilon^T\Lambda\vareps ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Scaled Inverse Chi-squared Distribution
The scaled inverse chi-squared distribution is the distribution for ''x'' = 1/''s''2, where ''s''2 is a sample mean of the squares of ν independent normal random variables that have mean 0 and inverse variance 1/σ2 = τ2. The distribution is therefore parametrised by the two quantities ν and τ2, referred to as the ''number of chi-squared degrees of freedom'' and the ''scaling parameter'', respectively. This family of scaled inverse chi-squared distributions is closely related to two other distribution families, those of the inverse-chi-squared distribution and the inverse-gamma distribution. Compared to the inverse-chi-squared distribution, the scaled distribution has an extra parameter ''τ''2, which scales the distribution horizontally and vertically, representing the inverse-variance of the original underlying process. Also, the scaled inverse chi-squared distribution is presented as the distribution for the inverse of the ''mean'' of ν squared deviat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Inverse-gamma Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the inverse gamma distribution is a two-parameter family of continuous probability distributions on the positive real line, which is the distribution of the reciprocal of a variable distributed according to the gamma distribution. Perhaps the chief use of the inverse gamma distribution is in Bayesian statistics, where the distribution arises as the marginal posterior distribution for the unknown variance of a normal distribution, if an uninformative prior is used, and as an analytically tractable conjugate prior, if an informative prior is required. It is common among some Bayesians to consider an alternative parametrization of the normal distribution in terms of the precision, defined as the reciprocal of the variance, which allows the gamma distribution to be used directly as a conjugate prior. Other Bayesians prefer to parametrize the inverse gamma distribution differently, as a scaled inverse chi-squared distribution. Characteriza ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Posterior Distribution
The posterior probability is a type of conditional probability that results from updating the prior probability with information summarized by the likelihood via an application of Bayes' rule. From an epistemological perspective, the posterior probability contains everything there is to know about an uncertain proposition (such as a scientific hypothesis, or parameter values), given prior knowledge and a mathematical model describing the observations available at a particular time. After the arrival of new information, the current posterior probability may serve as the prior in another round of Bayesian updating. In the context of Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability distribution usually describes the epistemic uncertainty about statistical parameters conditional on a collection of observed data. From a given posterior distribution, various point and interval estimates can be derived, such as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the highest posterior density interval (HP ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
