Zeyno Baran (born January 31, 1972) is a
Turkish American scholar on issues ranging from US-Turkey relations to
Islamist ideology to energy security in Europe and Asia. She was the Director of the Center for Eurasian Policy and a Senior Fellow at the
Hudson Institute
Hudson Institute is an American Conservatism in the United States, conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by futurist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation.
Kahn ...
, a think tank based in
Washington, D.C. From January 2003 until joining the Hudson Institute in April 2006, she worked as the Director of International Security and Energy Programs for The Nixon Center. Baran also worked as the Director of the Caucasus Project at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C. From its founding in 1962 until 1987, it was an affiliate of Georgetown University, initially named the Center for Strategic and Inte ...
from 1999 until December 2002.
[Zeyno Baran]
Hudson Institute
Hudson Institute is an American Conservatism in the United States, conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by futurist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation.
Kahn ...
She is married to
Matthew Bryza, former
U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and has a daughter.
Opposition to political Islam
One of Baran's key areas of specialization is countering the spread of radical Turkish
Islamist ideology in Europe and Eurasia. She has worked to foster the tolerant integration of
Muslims
Muslims () are people who adhere to Islam, a Monotheism, monotheistic religion belonging to the Abrahamic religions, Abrahamic tradition. They consider the Quran, the foundational religious text of Islam, to be the verbatim word of the God ...
into Western societies, arguing that the creation of "
parallel societies" within a state's broader society will only encourage intolerance and extremism on both sides.
Baran has criticized European and American governments for working too closely with groups or individuals that she claims espouse an Islamist ideology. She argues that such engagement actually works against U.S. and European interests. Baran wrote an article for ''
The Weekly Standard'' on this very subject. In it, she advocates a kind of "litmus test" for deciding who and what type of Muslim groups the U.S. government should engage with. Baran argues that "the deciding factor must be ideology: Is the group Islamist or not?"
[O Brotherhood, What Art Thou?]
The Weekly Standard
She believes that the
Muslim Brotherhood,
Hizbullah, and
Hizb ut-Tahrir
Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT; ) is an international pan-Islamist and Islamic fundamentalist political organization whose stated aim is the re-establishment of the Islamic caliphate to unite the Muslim community (called ''ummah'') and implement sharia glo ...
fail her test.
Baran's ''Hizb ut-Tahrir: Islam's Political Insurgency'', published in 2004, asserted that Hizb ut-Tahrir, an international Islamist organization, is a "
conveyor belt for radicalism and terrorism." She qualified her statement by saying, "While HT as an organization does not engage in terrorist activities, it has become the vanguard of the radical Islamist ideology that encourages its followers to commit terrorist acts".
[Hizb ut-Tahrir Islam's Political Insurgency]
The Nixon Center
Uzbekistan
In 2003 Baran assisted in American efforts to engage with the
Uzbek leadership to come up with better strategies to combat HT's hold in Central Asia, writing a monograph
on this subject.
In testimony to the Committee on International Relations, Baran argued that simply cutting off relations and terminating financial assistance with Uzbekistan because of the country's human rights abuses would not help foster reforms, and would, in fact, assist Hizb ut-Tahrir. While acknowledging that there are serious violation in Uzbekistan, she asserted that disengaging with the Uzbek government would be counterproductive both on humanitarian grounds and in terms of U.S. strategic interests in Eurasia.
Baran correctly predicted that after U.S. disengagement,
China
China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. With population of China, a population exceeding 1.4 billion, it is the list of countries by population (United Nations), second-most populous country after ...
and
Russia
Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a country spanning Eastern Europe and North Asia. It is the list of countries and dependencies by area, largest country in the world, and extends across Time in Russia, eleven time zones, sharing Borders ...
would embrace
Tashkent
Tashkent (), also known as Toshkent, is the Capital city, capital and List of cities in Uzbekistan, largest city of Uzbekistan. It is the most populous city in Central Asia, with a population of more than 3 million people as of April 1, 2024. I ...
and whatever limited democratic reform was underway would cease altogether. Baran also foresaw that the Uzbek government would punish the U.S. by revoking the latter's right to use military bases in the country which had been used to facilitate
Operation Enduring Freedom in
Afghanistan
Afghanistan, officially the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country located at the crossroads of Central Asia and South Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the Durand Line, east and south, Iran to the Afghanistan–Iran borde ...
.
[Hearing Transcript]
United States Congress
The United States Congress is the legislature, legislative branch of the federal government of the United States. It is a Bicameralism, bicameral legislature, including a Lower house, lower body, the United States House of Representatives, ...
Turkey
Baran's research and insights are not limited to Islam, but also her native Turkey. She famously wrote an article in ''
Newsweek
''Newsweek'' is an American weekly news magazine based in New York City. Founded as a weekly print magazine in 1933, it was widely distributed during the 20th century and has had many notable editors-in-chief. It is currently co-owned by Dev P ...
'' on December 4, 2006, stating that the likelihood for a coup in Turkey was "50-50".
[The Coming Coup d'etat?]
''Newsweek
''Newsweek'' is an American weekly news magazine based in New York City. Founded as a weekly print magazine in 1933, it was widely distributed during the 20th century and has had many notable editors-in-chief. It is currently co-owned by Dev P ...
''
This article generated significant controversy and actually prompted a member of the Turkish parliament,
Egemen Bagis, to write a letter to the editor of Newsweek in which he refuted her statement. Bagis went on to claim: "The statement belongs to Turkey's then-chief of staff Ismail Hakki Karadayi, who first made the comment in a well-publicized statement to the Turkish daily
Sabah (newspaper)
''Sabah'' is a Turkish daily newspaper, with a circulation of around 330,000 as of 2011. Its name means "morning" in Turkish language, Turkish.
The newspaper was founded in İzmir by Dinç Bilgin on 22 April 1985.
In 2007, the government of Tu ...
in 1996 and repeated it elsewhere in numerous interviews."
[Mail Call]
''Newsweek
''Newsweek'' is an American weekly news magazine based in New York City. Founded as a weekly print magazine in 1933, it was widely distributed during the 20th century and has had many notable editors-in-chief. It is currently co-owned by Dev P ...
''
Some claim that Baran was vindicated after the nomination of Turkish Foreign Minister
Abdullah Gül for President led to significant
public protests and the issuance of a cautionary statement from the Turkish General Staff. There were some tensions between the Turkish military and the ruling
Justice and Development Party prior to the 2007 elections when the military issued a warning on the website of the Turkish General staff, which has been dubbed "e-warning". This did not prevent a resurgent Justice and Development Party from gaining over 46 percent of the popular vote in the July 2007 elections. There are allegations that the
public protests were orchestrated by a clandestine illegal organization named
Ergenekon. Alleged members of this organization have been indicted on charges of plotting to foment unrest, among other things by assassinating intellectuals, politicians, judges, military staff, and religious leaders, with the ultimate goal of toppling the pro-Western incumbent government in a coup that was planned to take place in 2009. Hence, the prediction of a coup by Baran may have been based on these developments.
In June 2007, the
Hudson Institute
Hudson Institute is an American Conservatism in the United States, conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by futurist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation.
Kahn ...
conducted an off-the-record alternative futures meeting on the escalation of conflict between Turkey and the
PKK. For this meeting, a fictitious scenario was created in which a series of PKK attacks led Turkey to intervene militarily in northern Iraq. The details of this scenario and the content of the meeting were subsequently
leaked to the Turkish press, generating a controversy that rivaled the one created by Baran's December 2006 Newsweek article.
These revelations and its ensuing media coverage have given rise to speculation and a number of
conspiracy theories
A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that asserts the existence of a conspiracy (generally by powerful sinister groups, often political in motivation), when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources:
*
...
. Several high-ranking Turkish government officials have condemned the holding of this meeting as it considered the possibility of a Turkish intervention into
Iraq
Iraq, officially the Republic of Iraq, is a country in West Asia. It is bordered by Saudi Arabia to Iraq–Saudi Arabia border, the south, Turkey to Iraq–Turkey border, the north, Iran to Iran–Iraq border, the east, the Persian Gulf and ...
. Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced the contents of the Hudson scenario as "crazy talk". In a statement released via the Hudson website, Baran has asserted that the purpose of the meeting was "to prevent the PKK from causing further strains in
US-Turkey relations" and that those were present at the meeting "stated clearly the need for the US to take concrete action against the PKK."
Statement from Zeyno Baran on Hudson June 13 Meeting
, Hudson Institute
Hudson Institute is an American Conservatism in the United States, conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by futurist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation.
Kahn ...
In fact, Turkey has, in Operation Claw
Operation Claw () was a joint Swedish–American operation, with Norwegian support,"The day after the message of the German capitulation in Norway arrived, a Tuesday, Törneman arrived on request from Petersén around one PM. With Petersén was ...
and Operation Claw-Lock pursued extended interventions into Iraq and caused civilian casualties.
References
{{DEFAULTSORT:Baran, Zeyno
1972 births
American people of Turkish descent
Living people
Terrorism in Central Asia
Historians of Turkey
Critics of Islamism
Historians of Pakistan