Warnings (book)
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''Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes'' is a book published by HarperCollins Ecco and written by former United States intelligence and counterterrorism official
Richard A. Clarke Richard Alan Clarke (born October 27, 1950) is an American national security expert, novelist, and former government official. He served as the Counterterrorism Czar for the National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection, and C ...
, and former White House National Security Council Director, and U.S. and UN senior diplomat R. P. Eddy. The book offers a framework, "The Cassandra Coefficient," to help determine which warnings decisions makers should look into more closely, and if some warnings deserve less attention. The case studies range from national security, to threatening technologies, to the global economy, to climate change and speculates on various potential threats to civilization.


Content

The authors cover seven case studies in which data driven, proven, credible experts specifically warned of a pending catastrophe, were ignored by the decision makers, and the disaster subsequently struck just as predicted. The authors call these seers "Cassandras" after the Greek mythological figure who could foretell disaster but was cursed to never be believed. The authors propose a method to separate accurate predictions of danger from inaccurate doomsayers, "The Cassandra Coefficient." They then investigate experts who today are warning of future disasters—the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, mutating viruses, and more—and whose calls are not being heeded. The concluding chapter describes how individuals and organizations can employ the Cassandra Coefficient, hedging and "sentinel intelligence," to watch potential disasters so as to not be surprised by them, and expend the necessary remediative resources only when necessary.


Reception

''Warnings'' was lauded and recommended by President
Bill Clinton William Jefferson Clinton (né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician and lawyer who was the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, ...
(who noted it on his recommended reading list),
Henry Kissinger Henry Alfred Kissinger (May 27, 1923 – November 29, 2023) was an American diplomat and political scientist who served as the 56th United States secretary of state from 1973 to 1977 and the 7th National Security Advisor (United States), natio ...
, Sen. George Mitchell, Gen. Michael Hayden, Commissioner
William J. Bratton William Joseph Bratton CBE (born October 6, 1947) is an American businessman and former law enforcement officer who served two non-consecutive tenures as the New York City Police Commissioner (1994–1996 and 2014–2016) and currently one of o ...
and
Lawrence Wright Lawrence Wright (born August 2, 1947) is an American writer and journalist, who is a staff writer for ''The New Yorker'' magazine, and fellow at the Center for Law and Security at the New York University School of Law. Wright is best known as ...
. It was a Publishers Weekly best seller, the #1 Best Seller on Amazon in four categories, and a top 15 seller of all books on Amazon. The book enjoyed positive reviews in ''The Washington Times'', Insider Hook (formerly Real Clear Life),
Kirkus ''Kirkus Reviews'' is an American book review magazine founded in 1933 by Virginia Kirkus. The magazine's publisher, Kirkus Media, is headquartered in New York City. ''Kirkus Reviews'' confers the annual Kirkus Prize to authors of fiction, non ...
, and on
Good Morning America ''Good Morning America'', often abbreviated as ''GMA'', is an American breakfast television, morning television program that is broadcast on American Broadcasting Company, ABC. It debuted on November 3, 1975, and first expanded to weekends wit ...
. ''Warnings'' won the Axiom 2018 Business Book of the year, silver medal. In her book '' What Happened'' and subsequent interviews,
Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...
referred to ''Warnings'' and noted the value the Cassandra Theory could have had to encourage decision makers to take the Russian hacking threat in the 2016 U.S. presidential election more seriously. The authors have also started a foundation to reward annual prizes to present day “Cassandras.”


References

{{reflist 2017 non-fiction books American history books Comparative historical research Collaborative non-fiction books Ecco Press books History books about the 21st century Works about the theory of history