Wagner Group Mutiny

On 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, staged an uprising against the Russian government. It marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Ministry of Defense conflict, which had begun about six months earlier. Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had been leading Wagner Group activities in Ukraine, stood down after reaching an agreement a day later.

Amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin had come to publicly express his resentment towards minister of defence Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; he frequently blamed both men for Russia's military inadequacies, especially during the Wagner-led battle of Bakhmut, and accused them of handing over " Russian territories" to the Ukrainians. He portrayed the Wagner Group's rebellion as his response to the Russian Armed Forces allegedly attacking and killing hundreds of his Wagner mercenaries, which the Russian government denied. Characterizing it as a "march of justice" against the Russian military establishment, he demanded that Shoigu and Gerasimov be removed from their positions, and eventually stated that Russia's justification for attacking Ukraine was a lie. In the early morning of 24 June, President of Russia Vladimir Putin appeared in a televised address to denounce the Wagner Group's actions as treason before pledging to quell their uprising.

Wagner mercenaries first seized Rostov-on-Don, where the Southern Military District is headquartered, while an armored column of theirs advanced through Voronezh Oblast and towards Moscow. Armed with mobile anti-aircraft systems, they repelled the Russian military's aerial attacks, which ultimately failed to deter the Wagner column's progress. Ground defenses were concentrated on the approach to Moscow, but before Wagner Group could reach them, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko brokered a settlement with Prigozhin, who subsequently agreed to halt the rebellion. In the late evening of 24 June, Wagner troops abandoned their push to Moscow and those who remained in Rostov-on-Don began withdrawing.

In accordance with Lukashenko's agreement, Russia's Federal Security Service, which had initiated a case to prosecute the Wagner Group for armed rebellion against the Russian state under Article 279 of the Criminal Code, dropped all charges against Prigozhin and his Wagner fighters on 27 June. By the end of the hostilities, at least thirteen Russian soldiers had been killed and several Wagner mercenaries had been injured; Prigozhin stated that two defectors from the Russian military had been killed on Wagner's side as well. On 23 August 2023, exactly two months after the rebellion, Prigozhin was killed in a plane explosion alongside other senior Wagner officials.

Background

Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group

In the early 1990s, Prigozhin, having served a decade in prison before embarking on an entrepreneurial career, emerged as a prominent figure in Saint Petersburg's business life, gaining recognition for a string of highly regarded restaurants. This connection facilitated a financial association with Putin, who was actively engaged in municipal politics during that period. Prigozhin gradually evolved into a trusted and intimate confidant of Putin, forging a close personal bond.

In 2014, Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company. Despite the legal prohibition of private military companies in Russia, Wagner operated unimpeded with implicit endorsement and funding from the Russian government. Many analysts have said the government employed Wagner services to allow for plausible deniability and obscure the actual toll in terms of casualties and financial costs of Russia's foreign interventions.

Serving as a tool of Russian foreign and military policy, Wagner emerged as a formidable combat force in various regions, including the Donbas conflict. It played a significant role during Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war, providing support to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and has participated in conflicts in Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic. Wagner has garnered infamy due to its ruthless methods and participation in war crimes throughout Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, perpetrating atrocities with impunity.

The group maintains close ties with multiple African governments, enjoying considerable autonomy to exploit the natural resources of these nations in return for supporting local forces in their battle against anti-government rebels. Wagner's economic endeavors in Africa witnessed an upward trajectory even amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the funds generated were channeled towards financing the conflicts in Ukraine and other regions.

Internal tensions during the invasion of Ukraine

Order to integrate Wagner

In mid-June 2023, the MoD ordered Wagner to sign contracts with the military before 1 July. This move effectively integrated Wagner as a subordinate unit within the regular command structure, thereby diminishing the influence of Prigozhin. However, Prigozhin declined to sign the agreement, alleging incompetence on the part of Shoigu. Reports from the independent Russian news outlet ''Meduza'' indicated that this development would undermine Prigozhin's hold over Wagner and jeopardize the group's profitable operations in Africa. Prigozhin unsuccessfully attempted to circumvent the order for Wagner's subordination while intensifying his criticism of the MoD. He went as far as advocating for the execution of Shoigu and hinting at a potential popular uprising against inept officials. Prigozhin believed that Putin would ultimately side with him in his struggle against the MoD if he launched a mutiny.

Planning the rebellion

U.S. intelligence agencies observed a gradual accumulation of Wagner forces near the Russian border along with evidence of Wagner stockpiling equipment and resources in preparation for the rebellion. Although they obtained information regarding the where and how of the planned rebellion, the exact timing remained unknown. Western intelligence agencies reportedly uncovered the plan through communications intercepts and satellite image analysis. Several weeks prior to the actual event, U.S. intelligence started foreseeing a significant Wagner insurrection and obtained solid evidence of the imminent rebellion before 21 June. Prigozhin seemed to have set the plan in motion following the MoD decision on 10 June, which would effectively integrate Wagner forces into the regular military. The foreign intelligence findings indicate that the revolt was planned in advance, contradicting Prigozhin's claim that the decision to rebel was made on 23 June.

Anonymous U.S. officials later disclosed to ''The New York Times'' that Army General Sergey Surovikin had prior knowledge of the planned rebellion. Surovikin had acted as an intermediary between Prigozhin and the military hierarchy and was perceived to have close ties to Prigozhin. ''CNN'' obtained documents that indicated Surovikin had a personal registration number with Wagner and held a covert VIP membership within the group, alongside at least 30 other high-ranking Russian military and intelligence officials. Additionally, there were indications that other generals may have lent their support to the uprising. U.S. officials asserted that Prigozhin would not have instigated the rebellion unless he harbored the belief that he had backing from specific sectors within the Russian power structure.

According to disclosures by Western officials to ''The Wall Street Journal'', the Russian Federal Security Service discovered the plan two days before it was scheduled to be executed. The discovery of the plan led to the premature start of the rebellion. Prigozhin intended to capture defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov during their planned joint visit to the southern region of Russia that borders Ukraine and Western officials said the plan had a good chance of success had it not been discovered, leading Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan. Western officials said intelligence findings indicated that Prigozhin's plan rested on his belief that a part of the armed forces would join the rebellion, and that they believed Prigozhin had informed some senior military offices about his plan. Commander of the Russian National Guard Viktor Zolotov has claimed that Russian authorities learned about the planned rebellion and that it would be executed between 22 and 25 June. According to anonymous accounts conveyed by ''Meduza'', it's possible that the security services "didn't have the nerve to tell the president that something's up with Prigozhin ..because if they reported the problem, decisions would have to be made. And how would you make that decision?" According to ''Meduza'''s sources, after Prigozhin failed to evade the order to integrate Wagner into the regular military, "Some bad foreboding spread in the air, that something was about to happen." Kremlin officials "talked about it in meetings, and came to the conclusion that rigozhinis a daring opportunist who doesn't play by the rules. When it came to the risk of an armed insurrection, they thought it was nil." Consequently, they believed Prigozhin's announcement of an uprising to be a bluff intended to extract concessions, only realizing the seriousness of the situation once Wagner captured Rostov-on-Don. Lukashenko has said that both he and Putin had "slept through this situation" and that both "thought it would fizzle out on its own hen it started to develop.

''The Moscow Times'' reported that hours before his announcement of the rebellion, Prigozhin was secretly planning to attend a roundtable discussion in the State Duma opened by A Just Russia – For Truth leader Sergei Mironov in which MPs criticized the Kremlin's handling of the war effort in Ukraine. It added that Prigozhin was supposed to give a harsh criticism of the Russian military leadership from the Duma's chamber in a final attempt to win back Putin's approval. However, his plans were canceled at the last minute without explanation.

Rebellion

Prigozhin's statements

Rebukes of the government and allegation of an attack on Wagner

In a video released on 23 June 2023, Prigozhin claimed that the government's justifications for invading Ukraine were based on falsehoods, and that the invasion was designed to further the interests of Russian elites. He accused the MoD of attempting to deceive the public and the president by portraying Ukraine as an aggressive and hostile adversary which, in collaboration with NATO, was plotting an attack on Russian interests. Specifically, he denied that any Ukrainian escalation took place prior to 24 February 2022, which was one of the central points of Russian justification for the war. Prigozhin alleged that Shoigu and the "oligarchic clan" had personal motives for initiating the war. Furthermore, he asserted that the Russian military command intentionally concealed the true number of soldiers killed in Ukraine, with casualties reaching up to 1,000 on certain days.

In an effort to create a pretext for rebellion, later on 23 June, Prigozhin amplified a video that had already been circulating in Wagner-associated Telegram channels that reportedly showed the aftermath of a missile strike on a Wagner rear camp. Prigozhin accused the Russian MoD of conducting the strike, which he claimed killed 2,000 of his fighters. The MoD denied the allegations of attacking Wagner's rear camps, and the Institute for the Study of War was unable to confirm the veracity of the video, noting that it "may have been manufactured for informational purposes".

Other observers have also questioned the veracity of the video: ''Meduza'', in its 24 June investigation, claimed that the video of the missile attack on the Wagner camp was staged, citing the unusual behavior of the men filming and inconsistencies in the footage with what the aftermath of a large explosion would look like. Georgy Aleksandrov, a war correspondent for Novaya Gazeta Europe, also thought that the video of the aftermath of the shelling did not look credible, noting "There are no obvious craters from the hits. No obvious body fragments. No general smoke. The fires don't look like remnants from rocket impacts."

Call to rebellion

Prigozhin declared the start of an armed conflict against the Ministry of Defence in a message posted on his press service's Telegram channel. He called upon individuals interested in joining the conflict against the Ministry, portraying the rebellion as a response to the alleged strike on his men. Additionally, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu had cowardly fled from Rostov-on-Don at nine o'clock in the evening. Consequently, the Federal Security Service initiated legal proceedings against Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Criminal Code, which concerns armed rebellion.

Many members of Wagner were not informed about the planned rebellion beforehand. As a result, they were perplexed by Prigozhin's call to arms and uncertain as to which faction they should align themselves with. Demobilized Wagner veterans were instructed to remain on standby and await orders from Prigozhin. Individuals in Moscow without any affiliation with Wagner reported receiving calls, seemingly from the Wagner Group, urging them to join a rally in support of the rebellion. Similar calls were made to residents of Rostov-on-Don, soliciting support for the uprising.

Surovikin and Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev appealed to the Wagner mercenaries, urging them to cease hostilities. Surovikin made his remarks in what the ''Financial Times'' described as a "hostage-style video" and had, as of 29 June, remained unaccounted for. State-run Channel One Russia broadcast an "emergency newscast," during which host Ekaterina Andreeva declared that Prigozhin's statements regarding alleged attacks by regular military forces on Wagner positions were false. Andreeva also mentioned that Putin had been briefed on the ongoing situation. In response to Prigozhin's statements, the country's military and National Guard deployed armored vehicles in both Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. Rostov-on-Don is near the frontlines in Ukraine where Wagner troops had been operating, and is also where Prigozhin had claimed that Wagner troops were headed. It is directly connected to Moscow by the M4 highway.

Capture of Rostov-on-Don

During the early morning of 24 June, Wagner forces crossed into Russia's Rostov Oblast from Luhansk and swiftly captured Rostov-on-Don, encountering no apparent opposition. They successfully took control of the Southern Military District headquarters, establishing a secure perimeter in the adjacent streets. Notably, Prigozhin, captured on film, was seen within the courtyard of the headquarters building. The Wagner forces fortified their position by planting landmines and establishing security checkpoints in the city center of Rostov. Wagner members sported silver armbands to distinguish themselves.

Prigozhin held a meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alekseyev at the headquarters, during which Yevkurov unsuccessfully attempted to persuade Prigozhin to withdraw his troops. Prigozhin then hunkered down in a bunker in the city and took up command as a detachment of some thousands of Wagner forces advanced on Moscow. Shooting and explosions were later heard. The Rostelecom building was fired at for unclear reasons. Unconfirmed videos hinted at confrontations between Wagner forces and the military within the city.

Many of Rostov's businesses and facilities remained closed. The municipal administration advised residents to stay at home (seemingly to little effect), but did not declare a counter-terrorism operations regime. Local shops reduced their operating hours, and long queues formed at gas stations. Some residents tried to stock up on essentials, while others sought to leave the city, resulting in traffic congestion and lengthy lines at the train station. However, there was no widespread panic among the populace. Certain residents congregated in the city center to meet Wagner fighters; the majority was supportive, although a few engaged in arguments with them. The Wagner mercenaries were pointedly amicable with the residents. Wagner forces subsequently urged civilians to stay off the streets for their own safety after which shooting and explosions broke out.

Eyewitness footage depicted a long convoy of military and civilian vehicles heading towards the city, purportedly comprising Chechen paramilitaries (Kadyrovites) with the objective of engaging the Wagner forces. According to Chechen state media and various accounts, they did not reach the city center and did not enter into any hostilities. A commander of the Chechen forces later said that some of their teams had been as close as "500-700 meters from Wagner fighters".

Advance towards Moscow

A convoy of Wagner forces headed to Moscow while Prigozhin commanded the rebellion from Rostov-on-Don. The armored columns, consisting of a few thousand men with tanks, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft weaponry, and civilian trucks, began to advance rapidly towards Moscow in the early hours of 24 June. While one column reportedly came from Rostov-on-Don, capturing Millerovo air base, another crossed over from the occupied territory of Ukraine. The vehicles advanced across Voronezh Oblast where they encountered little resistance. According to a source close to the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic, the convoy bound for Moscow comprised approximately 5,000 combatants, reportedly under the leadership of the senior Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin. Russian military bloggers claimed that the number of Moscow-bound troops stood at 4,000. British intelligence reportedly estimated that some 8,000 Wagner mercenaries participated in the rebellion (including troops which did not move towards Moscow), while Prigozhin claimed that the rebels were 25,000-strong. The column did not attempt to occupy any cities it passed through, although it might have taken control of several air bases.

Outside the regional capital of Voronezh, halfway between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow, Wagner troops were attacked by a helicopter. The Russian Air Force suffered significant losses while confronting Wagner troops, with at least one helicopter and an Il-22M airborne command-center plane shot down. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the loss of the Il-22M was particularly significant, as it was one of only twelve aircraft of the type that had been key to the war effort against Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully trying to shoot down such aircraft throughout the war. At least thirteen Russian military personnel were killed. ''Janes'' inferred the number to potentially be as high as 29, based on an estimation of the number of personnel needed to operate all of the reportedly destroyed equipment.

Wagner fighters drove past Voronezh and continued to push through Voronezh Oblast throughout the early afternoon without entering important cities. Social media posts also showed footage of fighting between Wagner troops and the military in Voronezh proper, with Reuters citing military reports. Two missiles—likely fired by Wagner's air defense systems—struck an oil depot and a courtyard of a housing complex in Voronezh. According to media reports, Wagner took control of all military facilities in the city.

Wagner proceeded into Lipetsk Oblast, approximately from Moscow. They passed through the town of Yelets, and continued north along the M4 highway. In Lipetsk Oblast, authorities deliberately demolished highways using excavators in an effort to impede the convoy's progress. Some roadways were blocked with trucks and school buses. The military set up defensive lines along the Oka river (which flows just south of Moscow) and barricaded bridge crossings. The governors of Lipetsk Oblast and Voronezh Oblast urged all civilians to stay indoors, following reports of military columns and clashes along the M4 highway.

Prigozhin subsequently claimed that two Russian military defectors were killed while fighting alongside Wagner. The Dutch OSINT website Oryx recorded five destroyed vehicles on the rebels' side, and two captured vehicles on the side of the government forces.

There are reports that the closest to Moscow that Wagner troops got was the town of Kashira in southern Moscow Oblast, south of Moscow. Wagner presence is not visually confirmed any closer than Krasnoye in northern Lipetsk Oblast, south of Moscow.

Security measures

Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, declared the implementation of the counter-terrorism operations regime in the capital. Armoured vehicles and an increased presence of security forces was observed throughout Moscow. Municipal authorities contemplated a curfew, and billboards advertising Wagner recruitment were seen being hastily dismantled. ''Der Spiegel'' reported a complete sell-out of all flights departing from Moscow as people sought to escape the impending situation. According to the airplane-tracking website Flightradar24, an aircraft used by Putin took off from Moscow and headed towards St. Petersburg. However, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

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