The Volfefe Index was a

stock market index In finance, a stock index, or stock market index, is an Index (economics), index that measures the performance of a stock market, or of a subset of a stock market. It helps investors compare current stock price levels with past prices to calcul ...

of volatility in market sentiment for US Treasury bonds caused by tweets by

President President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) * President (education), a leader of a college or university *President (government title) President may also refer to: Arts and entertainment Film and television *'' Præsident ...

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...

. ''

Bloomberg News Bloomberg News (originally Bloomberg Business News) is an international news agency headquartered in New York City and a division of Bloomberg L.P. Content produced by Bloomberg News is disseminated through Bloomberg Terminals, Bloomberg T ...

'' observed Volfefe was created due to the

statistical significance In statistical hypothesis testing, a result has statistical significance when a result at least as "extreme" would be very infrequent if the null hypothesis were true. More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by \alpha, is the ...

of Trump tweets on bond prices. ''

ABC News Online ABC News, also known as ABC News and Current Affairs, is a public news service produced by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. The service covers both local and world affairs, broadcasting both nationally as ABC News, and across the Asia- ...

'' posited Volfefe could help analyze

interest rate risk Interest rate risk is the risk that arises for bond owners from fluctuating interest rate An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed (called the principal sum). The ...

in the face of "unpredictable" activity on social media by Trump.

Etymology

The name "Volfefe" is a

portmanteau In linguistics, a blend—also known as a blend word, lexical blend, or portmanteau—is a word formed by combining the meanings, and parts of the sounds, of two or more words together.

of the words ''volatility'' and ''

covfefe Covfefe ( , ) is a word, widely presumed to be a typographical error, that Donald Trump used in a Viral phenomenon, viral Twitter, tweet during his first term as President of the United States. It quickly became an Internet meme. Six minutes a ...

'', the latter being a word (widely presumed to be a typographical error) posted in a 2017 tweet by Trump.

Creation

Volfefe was launched by

JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase & Co. (stylized as JPMorganChase) is an American multinational financial services, finance corporation headquartered in New York City and incorporated in Delaware. It is List of largest banks in the United States, the largest ba ...

on September 9, 2019.

Methods

In forming the basis of the methodology behind Volfefe, JPMorgan Chase used software to analyse the corpus of Trump's tweets. 14,000 tweets were used in the analysis to form the initial projections for their software. Their analysts determined that there were direct correlations between tweets and subsequent market movements. These market movements were most notably evidenced when the tweet specifically references financial matters including the

US Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve System (often shortened to the Federal Reserve, or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of ...

. The tweets issued during the working day of the

New York Stock Exchange The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE, nicknamed "The Big Board") is an American stock exchange in the Financial District, Manhattan, Financial District of Lower Manhattan in New York City. It is the List of stock exchanges, largest stock excha ...

were more likely to cause a change in market sentiment; however, it was noted that the tweets can come at any time of day and thus have an effect on markets around the world. Key words in tweets often include "

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. With population of China, a population exceeding 1.4 billion, it is the list of countries by population (United Nations), second-most populous country after ...

", "

billion Billion is a word for a large number, and it has two distinct definitions: * 1,000,000,000, i.e. one thousand million, or (ten to the ninth power), as defined on the short scale. This is now the most common sense of the word in all varieties of ...

", "products", " Democrats", "great", "dollars", "

tariff A tariff or import tax is a duty (tax), duty imposed by a national Government, government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer. Exceptionally, an export tax may be levied on exports of goods ...

s" and "trade".

Analysis

'' noted, "JPMorgan’s 'Volfefe Index,' named after Trump’s mysterious covfefe tweet from May 2017, suggests that the president’s electronic musings are having a statistically significant impact on Treasury yields." ''

'' commented JP Morgan created Volfefe, "to measure how much impact Mr Trump's unpredictable tweets have on US interest rates".

References

External links

* *
Trump Tweets
at

CNN Cable News Network (CNN) is a multinational news organization operating, most notably, a website and a TV channel headquartered in Atlanta. Founded in 1980 by American media proprietor Ted Turner and Reese Schonfeld as a 24-hour cable ne ...

List of Donald Trump deleted tweets
on Factbase
Trump Twitter archive
Searchable database * {{Donald Trump Stock market Behavioral finance Mathematical finance Donald Trump and social media 2010s in mass media Internet properties established in 2019 E-government in the United States Mass media-related controversies in the United States

Social media Social media are interactive technologies that facilitate the Content creation, creation, information exchange, sharing and news aggregator, aggregation of Content (media), content (such as ideas, interests, and other forms of expression) amongs ...